• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.3 s.81
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• pp.95-108
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.37-45
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• 2022

A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.187-197
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• 2009

This paper presents a systematic approach for estimating fragility curves and damage probability matrices for different frequencies. Fragility curves and damage probability indicate the probabilities that a structure will sustain different degrees of damage at different ground motion levels. The seismic damages are to achieved by probabilistic evaluation because of uncertainty of earthquakes. In contrast to previous approaches, this paper presents a method that is based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of the structure using empirical data. This paper presents the probability of damage as a function of peak ground acceleration and estimates the probability of five damage levels for prestressed concrete (PSC) bridge pier subjected to given ground acceleration. At each level, 100 artificial earthquake motions were generated in terms of soil conditions, and nonlinear time domain analyses was performed for the damage states of PSC bridge pier structures. These damage states are described by displacement ductility resulting from seismic performance based on existing research results. Using the damage states and ground motion parameters, five fragility curves for PSC bridge pier with five types of dominant frequencies were constructed assuming a log-normal distribution. The effect of dominant frequences was found to be significant on fragility curves.

• Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.216-221
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• 1996

The quantitative EEGs of obsessive-compulsive disorder patients were analyzed using spectral analysis and compared to age and sex-matched controls. The subjects were 19 patients(men=15, women=4) suffering from obsessive-compulsive disorder(DSM-III-R). Absolute power, relative power and interhemispheric asymmetry of EEG were used to compare obsessive-compulsive disorder patients with controls. In order to fit the EEG data to a normal distribution, a log transformation of power values of every bandwidth in each deviation was calculated prior statistical analysis. The Wilcoxon rank test was performed to compare obsessive-compulsive group to the control group. In obsessive-compulsive disorder, abnormalities of quantitative EEGs are prominent in fronto-central. These results ore compatible with other brain imaging studies of obsessive-compulsive disorder and suggested that fronto-central area plays an important role in the pathophysiology of obsessive-compulsive disorder.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.128-133
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• 1985

Variability of soil characteristics and purity were statistically summarized within mapping units and estimates were given for sample sizes required to reach predetermined levels of accuracy in mountainous area soils. Total variances within mapped soil series (expressed as CV): 30-60% for physical properties and CEC relatively affected by management and 80-230% for chemical properties except for pH affected by management. Means of some chemical properties were estimated on the assumption of log-normal distribution. These soils were correctly classified with regard to order at 73.9, to great group 56.9, and to series 47.4%. Approximate sample sizes required to detect the difference of 10 and 20% of the true mean with 0.95 confidence level were presented.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.406-417
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• 2011

Objectives: Exposure to bioaerosols in the indoor environment could be associated with a variety adverse health effects, including allergic disease such atopy. The objectives of this study were to assess children's exposure to bioaerosol in home indoor environments and to evaluate the association between atopy and bioaerosol, environmental, and social factors in Ulsan, Korea. Methods: Samples of viable airborne bacteria and fungi were collected by impaction onto agar plates using a Quick Take TM 30 and were counted as colony forming units per cubic meter of air (CFU/$m^3$). Bioaerosols were identified using standard microbial techniques by differential stains and/or microscopy. The environmental factors and possible causes of atopy based on ISAAC (International Study of Allergy and Asthma in Childhood) were collected by questionnaire. Results: The bioaerosol concentrations in indoor environments showed log-normal distribution (p < 0.01). Geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD) of airborne bacteria and fungi in homes were 189.0 (2.5), 346.1(2.0) CFU/$m^3$, respectively. Indoor fungal levels were significantly higher than those of bacteria (p < 0.001). The concentration of airborne bacteria exceeded the limit recommended by the Korean Ministry of Environment, 800 CFU/$m^3$, in three out of 92 samples (3.3%) from 52 homes. The means of indoor to outdoor ratio (I/O) for airborne bacteria and fungi were 8.15 and 1.13, respectively. The source of airborne bacteria was not outdoors but indoors. GM of airborne bacteria and fungi were 217.6, 291.8 CFU/$m^3$ in the case's home and 162.0, 415.2 CFU/$m^3$ in the control's home respectively. The difference in fungal distributions between case and control were significant (p = 0.004) and the odds ratio was 0.996 (p = 0.027). Atopy was significantly associated with type of house (odds ratio = 1.723, p = 0.047) and income (odds ratio = 1.891, p = 0.041). Some of the potential allergic fungal genera isolated in homes were Cladosporium spp., Botrytis spp., Aspergillus spp., Penicillium spp., and Alternatia spp. Conclusions: These results suggest that there this should be either 'was little' meaning 'basically no significant association was found' or 'was a small negative' mean that an association was found but it was minor. It's a very improtant distinction. Association between airborne fungal concentrations and atopy and certain socioeconomic factors may affect the prevalence of childhood atopy.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.4575-4591
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• 1978

In order to investigate the effects of grain size distribution, cement content, and molding pressure on the strength and durability of soil-cement mixtures, a laboratory test of soil cement mixtures was performed at four levels of cement content, five levels of molding pressure, and four levels of normal curing periods. The results are summarized as follows: 1. Optimum moisture contents in loam soil and maximum dry density in sand soil increased with the increase of cement content, but in others, both optimum moisture contents and maximum dry density were changed ununiformly. 2. When the specimens were molded with molding pressure, 50kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, strength of soil cement mixture with cement content, 2 and 4 per cent, was lower than the strength of soil cement mixture without cement content by more than 40 to 50 per cent. 3. The strength of soil-cement molded with molding pressure, 100kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, was higher than the strength of soil-cement molded with M.D.D. obtained from standard compaction test more than 40 per cent in sand loam cement and 50 per cent in loamy cement. 4. There was highly significant positive correlation among molding pressure, cement content and unconfined compressive strentgh and so the following multiple regression equations were obtained. Loam: fc=1.9693C+0.197P-0.84 Sandy loam: fc=2.9065C+0.235P-0.77 5. When the specimens were molded with molding pressure, 20 to 100kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$, the regression equation between the 28-day and 7-day strenght was obtained as follows. Loam : q28=1.1050q7+7.59(r=0.9147) Sandy loam : q28=1.3905q7+3.17 (r=0.9801) 6. At the cement contents of above 50 per cent, the weight losses by freeeze-thaw test were negligible. At the cement content of below 8 per cent the weight losses were singnificantly high under low molding pressure and remarkably decreased with the increase of molding pressure up to 80kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$. 7. Resistance to damage from water and to absorption of water were not improved by molding pressure alone, but when the soil was mixtured with cement above 6 per cent, damage seldoms occurred and absorbed less than 5 per cent of water. 8. There was highly significant inverse-corelationship between the compressive strength of soil cement mixtures and their freeze-thaw loss as well as water absorption. By the regression equation methods, the relationships between them were expessed as followed fc=-7.3206Wa+115.6(r=0.9871) log fc=-0.0174L+1.59(r=0.7709) where fc=unconfined compressive stregth after 28-days curing. kg/$\textrm{cm}^2$ Wa=water absorption, % L : freeze-thaw loss rate, %

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.67-75
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• 2014

In this study, the staged seismic performance evaluations were conducted to the 91 high speed railway tunnels in use for checking whether to comply with the recent design criteria or not. In addition, the seismic fragility functions of the tunnels were developed to allow the probabilistic risk assessment. The results of the staged seismic performance evaluations which consist of a preliminary assessment and a detailed assessment, show that the tunnels comply with the recent design criteria. With reference to the results of previous studies, a form of the proposed seismic fragility functions was set as a log-normal distribution by PGA, and the parameters of the functions were determined by using the probability of damage for the design PGA level. The seismic fragility functions were developed for each types (Cut & Cover, NATM) of tunnels. The seismic fragility functions from this study and the existing research results (FEMA, 2004) were compared to evaluate the seismic performance level of the tunnels, as a result the tunnels of this study were relatively superior to the ASSM tunnels on the seismic performance.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.771-781
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• 1997

In order to select an effective and appropriate evaluation method for the marine environmental protection and management, it is necessary to evaluate the present status of environmental conditions and to monitor and regulate the harzadous waste continuously. Among the evaluation methods that use benthic fauna, some graphical methods and biological index methods such as species abundance-biomass (SAB), Rank-frequency diagram (RFD), Abundance-Biomass comparison (ABC), log-normal distribution (LND), and Benthic Pollution Index (BPI) modified by Infaunal Trophic Index were used for the assessments of marine environment in the Inchon coastal area. Even though the graphic methods are convenient for easy glimpse of general trend of environmental condition but because they require sufficient ecological data, those methods do not fit for analysis or comparison of regional and detailed environmental condition. On the other hand, when BPI was applied, it was able to compare the spatial benthic conditions. Through considering the functional aspects of benthic fauna which can not be obtained in the cluster analysis, BPI was made it possible to measure or trace down the source of pollution. In the case of the environmental assessment result analyzed in Inchon coastal area, the north eastern part of Yongjongdo was more influenced by the pollution than the outer area of Inchon. The research indicates that especially Inchon harbor has been greatly affected.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.8
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• pp.645-656
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• 2016

The study performed a regional flood frequency analysis and proposed a regression equation to estimate design floods corresponding to return periods for ungauged basins in Geum-river basin. Five preliminary tests were employed to investigate hydrological independence and homogeneity of streamflow data, i.e. the lag-one autocorrelation test, time homogeneity test, Grubbs-Beck outlier test, discordancy measure test ($D_i$), and regional homogeneity measure (H). The test results showed that streamflow data were time-independent, discordant and homogeneous within the basin. Using five probability distributions (generalized extreme value (GEV), three-parameter log-normal (LN-III), Pearson type 3 (P-III), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA)), comparative regional flood frequency analyses were carried out for the region. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram, average weighted distance (AWD) and goodness-of-fit statistics ($Z^{DIST}$), the GLO distribution was selected as the best fit model for Geum-river basin. Using the GLO, a regression equation was developed for estimating regional design floods, and validated by comparing the estimated and observed streamflows at the Ganggyeong station.