• Title/Summary/Keyword: Log Likelihood Function

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Field data analyses for products with multiple-modes of failure (고장원인이 여럿인 제품의 사용현장 데이터 분석)

  • 배도선;최인수;황용근
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.89-104
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    • 1995
  • This paper is concerned with the method of estimating lifetime distributin from field data for products with multiple modes of failure. When product failures occur within warranty period, a manufacturer can obtain failure-record data; failure times, causes of failure, and covariates. Since these data are seriously incomplete for satisfactory inference, that is, only failures occured during warrantly period may be recorded, it is usually necessary to incoporate the failure-record data by taking a supplementary sample of items obtained following up a portion of products that survive warranty time. The log linear function is considered as a model for describing the relation between failure time of a product and covariates. General methods for obtaining pseudo maximum likelihood estimators(PMLEs) for the parameters are outlined and their asymptotic properties are studied, and specific formulas for exponential or Weibull distribution are obtained. Effects of follow-up percentage on the PMLEs are investigated. Extensions to calendar time warranty or calendar and obtaining time warranty are also considered.

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Performance Analysis on Various Design Issues of Quasi-Cyclic Low Density Parity Check Decoder (Quasi-Cyclic Low Density Panty Check 복호기의 다양한 설계 관점에 대한 성능분석)

  • Chung, Su-Kyung;Park, Tae-Geun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.92-100
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we analyze the hardware architecture of Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) decoder using Log Likelihood Ration-Belief Propagation (LLR-BP) decoding algorithm. Various design issues that affect the decoding performance and the hardware complexity are discussed and the tradeoffs between the hardware complexity and the performance are analyzed. The message data for passing error probability is quantized to 7 bits and among them the fractional part is 4 bits. To maintain the decoding performance, the integer and fractional parts for the intrinsic information is 2 bits and 4 bits respectively. We discuss the alternate implementation of $\Psi$(x) function using piecewise linear approximation. Also, we improve the hardware complexity and the decoding time by applying overlapped scheduling.

Seismic Fragility of Underground Utility Tunnels (지하 공동구 시설물의 지진취약도 분석)

  • Lee, Deuk-Bok;Lee, Chang-Soo;Shin, Dea-Sub
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.413-419
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    • 2016
  • Damage of infrastructures by an earthquake causes the secondary damage through the world at large more than the damage of the structures themselves. Amomg them, underground utility tunnel structures comes under the special life line: communication, gas, electricity and etc. and it has a need to evaluate its fragility to an earthquake exactly. Therefore, the destruction ability according to peak ground acceleration of earthquakes for the underground utility tunnels is evaluated in this paper. As an input ground motion for evaluating seismic fragilities, real earthquakes and artificial seismic waves which could be generated in the Korean peninsula are used. And as a seismic analysis method, response displacement method and time history analyzing method are used. An limit state which determines whether destruction is based on the bending moment and shear deformation. A method used to deduct seismic fragility curve is method of maximum likelihood and the distribution function is assumed to the log normal distribution. It could evaluate the damage of underground utility tunnels to an earthquake and could be applied as basic data for seismic design of underground utility tunnel structures.

A probabilistic fragility evaluation method of a RC box tunnel subjected to earthquake loadings (지진하중을 받는 RC 박스터널의 확률론적 취약도 평가기법)

  • Huh, Jungwon;Le, Thai Son;Kang, Choonghyun;Kwak, Kiseok;Park, Inn-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2017
  • A probabilistic fragility assessment procedure is developed in this paper to predict risks of damage arising from seismic loading to the two-cell RC box tunnel. Especially, the paper focuses on establishing a simplified methodology to derive fragility curves which are an indispensable ingredient of seismic fragility assessment. In consideration of soil-structure interaction (SSI) effect, the ground response acceleration method for buried structure (GRAMBS) is used in the proposed approach to estimate the dynamic response behavior of the structures. In addition, the damage states of tunnels are identified by conducting the pushover analyses and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique is employed to consider the uncertainties associated with design variables. To illustrate the concepts described, a numerical analysis is conducted and fragility curves are developed for a large set of artificially generated ground motions satisfying a design spectrum. The seismic fragility curves are represented by two-parameter lognormal distribution function and its two parameters, namely the median and log-standard deviation, are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) method.

Underlying Values of Real-time Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign Using Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) (조건부가치추정법을 이용한 VMS교통정보의 기본가치 추정연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-A;Kim, Jun-Gi;O, Seong-Ho;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2011
  • In the benefits of ITS, there are intangible gains from real-time traffic information as well as classical gains such as travel time saving. These intangible gains are difficult to be estimated by existing transportation investment appraisal commonly used in SOC investment. The major reason is not because of the absence of methodology but because of the absence of generalized values of particular benefits from real time traffic information. This research explores the value of real-time traffic information on VMS that is the most representative of ITS services, by using CVM with Double Bounded Dichotomous Choice Question. Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) functions of drivers are built with survival functions using various types of probability distribution functions such as Exponential, Log-logistic, and Weibull functions. The results reveal that Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate distribution model to estimate WTP, and the estimated coefficients are stable through LR (Likelihood Ratio) test. For the further study, it is recommended to perform statistical tests of temporal and spatial transferability that is not examined in this research due to the lack of data.

The Extreme Value Analysis of Deepwater Design Wave Height and Wind Velocity off the Southwest Coast (남서 해역 심해 설계 파고 및 풍속의 극치분석)

  • Kim, Kamg-Min;Lee, Joong-Woo;Lee, Hun;Yang, Sang-Yong;Jeong, Young-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.245-251
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    • 2005
  • When we design coastal and harbol facilities deepwater design wave and wind speed are the important design parameters. Especially, the analysis of these informations is a vital step for the point of disaster prevention. In this study, we made and an extreme value analysis using a series of deep water significant wave data arranged in the 16 direction and supplied by KORDI real-time wave information system ,and the wind data gained from Wan-Do whether Station 1978-2003. The probability distributions considered in this characteristic analysis were the Weibull, the Gumbel, the Log-Pearson Type III, the Normal, the Lognormal, and the Gamma distribution. The parameter for each distribution was estimated by three methods, i.e. the method of moments, the maximum likelihood, and the method of probability weight moments. Furthermore, probability distributions for the extreme data had been selected by using Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test within significant level of 5%, i,e. 95% reliance level. From this study we found that Gumbel distribution is the most proper model for the deep water design wave height off the southwest coast of Korea. However the result shows that the proper distribution made for the selected site is varied in each extreme data set.

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