• 제목/요약/키워드: Local uncertainty

검색결과 180건 처리시간 0.024초

RGB-D센서 기반의 경로 예측을 적용한 안전하고 효율적인 지역경로 계획 (Planning of Safe and Efficient Local Path based on Path Prediction Using a RGB-D Sensor)

  • 문지영;채희원;송재복
    • 로봇학회논문지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2018
  • Obstacle avoidance is one of the most important parts of autonomous mobile robot. In this study, we proposed safe and efficient local path planning of robot for obstacle avoidance. The proposed method detects and tracks obstacles using the 3D depth information of an RGB-D sensor for path prediction. Based on the tracked information of obstacles, the paths of the obstacles are predicted with probability circle-based spatial search (PCSS) method and Gaussian modeling is performed to reduce uncertainty and to create the cost function of caution. The possibility of collision with the robot is considered through the predicted path of the obstacles, and a local path is generated. This enables safe and efficient navigation of the robot. The results in various experiments show that the proposed method enables robots to navigate safely and effectively.

Implicit Treatment of Technical Specification and Thermal Hydraulic Parameter Uncertainties in Gaussian Process Model to Estimate Safety Margin

  • Fynan, Douglas A.;Ahn, Kwang-Il
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제48권3호
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    • pp.684-701
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    • 2016
  • The Gaussian process model (GPM) is a flexible surrogate model that can be used for nonparametric regression for multivariate problems. A unique feature of the GPM is that a prediction variance is automatically provided with the regression function. In this paper, we estimate the safety margin of a nuclear power plant by performing regression on the output of best-estimate simulations of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident with sampling of safety system configuration, sequence timing, technical specifications, and thermal hydraulic parameter uncertainties. The key aspect of our approach is that the GPM regression is only performed on the dominant input variables, the safety injection flow rate and the delay time for AC powered pumps to start representing sequence timing uncertainty, providing a predictive model for the peak clad temperature during a reflood phase. Other uncertainties are interpreted as contributors to the measurement noise of the code output and are implicitly treated in the GPM in the noise variance term, providing local uncertainty bounds for the peak clad temperature. We discuss the applicability of the foregoing method to reduce the use of conservative assumptions in best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) and Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) success criteria definitions while dealing with a large number of uncertainties.

Time uncertainty analysis method for level 2 human reliability analysis of severe accident management strategies

  • Suh, Young A;Kim, Jaewhan;Park, Soo Yong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.484-497
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    • 2021
  • This paper proposes an extended time uncertainty analysis approach in Level 2 human reliability analysis (HRA) considering severe accident management (SAM) strategies. The method is a time-based model that classifies two time distribution functions-time required and time available-to calculate human failure probabilities from delayed action when implementing SAM strategies. The time required function can be obtained by the combination of four time factors: 1) time for diagnosis and decision by the technical support center (TSC) for a given strategy, 2) time for strategy implementation mainly by the local emergency response organization (ERO), 3) time to verify the effectiveness of the strategy and 4) time for portable equipment transport and installation. This function can vary depending on the given scenario and includes a summation of lognormal distributions and a choice regarding shifting the distribution. The time available function can be obtained via thermal-hydraulic code simulation (MAAP 5.03). The proposed approach was applied to assess SAM strategies that use portable equipment and safety depressurization system valves in a total loss of component cooling water event that could cause reactor vessel failure. The results from the proposed method are more realistic (i.e., not conservative) than other existing methods in evaluating SAM strategies involving the use of portable equipment.

A new viewpoint on stability theorem for engineering structural and geotechnical parameter

  • Timothy Chen;Ruei-Yuan Wang;Yahui Meng;Z.Y. Chen
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제36권5호
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2024
  • Many uncertainties affect the stability assessment of rock structures. Some of these factors significantly influence technology decisions. Some of these factors belong to the geological domain, and spatial uncertainty measurements are useful for structural stability analysis. This paper presents an integrated approach to study the stability of rock structures, including spatial factors. This study models two main components: discrete structures (fault zones) and well known geotechnical parameters (rock quality indicators). The geostatistical modeling criterion are used to quantify geographic uncertainty by producing simulated maps and RQD values for multiple equally likely error regions. Slope stability theorem would be demonstrated by modeling local failure zones and RQDs. The approach proided is validated and finally, the slope stability analysis method and fuzzy Laypunov criterion are applied to mining projects with limited measurement data. The goals of this paper are towards access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services, promotion of inclusive and sustainable urbanization and participation, implementation of sustainable and disaster-resilient buildings, sustainable human settlement planning and manage. Simulation results of linear and nonlinear structures show that the proposed method is able to identify structural parameters and their changes due to damage and unknown excitations. Therefore, the goal is believed to achieved in the near future by the ongoing development of AI and fuzzy theory.

Bayesian MBLRP 모형을 이용한 시간강수량 모의 기법 개발 (A Development of Hourly Rainfall Simulation Technique Based on Bayesian MBLRP Model)

  • 김장경;권현한;김동균
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제34권3호
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2014
  • 추계학적 강수발생 및 모의기법은 수문학적 모형의 입력 자료로써 널리 이용되고 있다. 그러나 Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse(MBLRP)와 같은 추계학적 포아송 클러스터 강수생성 모형에 대해서 국부최적화 방법을 통한 매개변수 추정 방법은 매개변수의 신뢰성에 상당한 영향을 주는 것으로 알려져 있다. 최근에는 MBLRP 모형의 국부해추정 문제를 해소하기 위하여 Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) 또는 Shuffled Complex Evolution developed at The University of Arizona (SCE-UA) 등 매개변수 추정 성능이 우수한 전역최적화기법이 도입되고 있지만, 제한된 매개변수 공간에서 항상 신뢰성 있는 매개변수 추정이 가능한 것은 아니다. 뿐만 아니라, 모형의 매개변수들이 갖고 있는 불확실성에 관한 연구는 아직 충분히 논의되지 않았다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 Bayesian 기법과 연계한 MBLRP 모형을 개발하였으며 각 매개변수들의 사후분포(Posterior Distribution)를 유도하여 매개변수가 내포하는 불확실성을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 그 결과 관측값에 대한 시간단위 이하 강수발생 통계치를 효과적으로 복원하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

한반도 주변해역 대기환경에 대한 싱글채널 온도추정 알고리즘의 불확도 추정 (Uncertainty Estimation of Single-Channel Temperature Estimation Algorithm for Atmospheric Conditions in the Seas around the Korean Peninsula)

  • 이종혁;강경웅;백승일;김원국
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제39권3호
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    • pp.355-361
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    • 2023
  • 지구 표면에 대한 정보는 기상 및 대기 역학의 이해나 인간을 포함한 동물에 큰 영향을 미치는 극한 열현상에 대응함에 있어서 핵심적인 지구 물리량이다. 지구 영역에 대한 온도를 추정하기 위하여 위성에 탑재된 열적외 센서가 널리 활용되어 왔는데, 정밀한 활용을 위해서는 온도 추정 과정의 불확도에 대한 이해가 선행되어야 한다. 하지만 온도추정 불확도에 영향을 미치는 많은 요소 중에서 한반도 주변의 환경 하에서의 온도추정 알고리즘의 불확도 산정에 대한 연구는 미미하였다. 본 연구에서는 한반도 주변의 대기 및 해양 조건하에서 범용성이 높은 single-channel 알고리즘의 불확도를 추정하는 연구를 수행하였다. 알고리즘의 입력자료로 필요한 재분석자료(reanalysis)의 영향성을 평가하기 위하여 두 가지의 재분석자료, 즉 fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis of the global climate and weather (ERA5)와 Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2)를 사용하였고, 복사전달모델은 MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN)을 사용하였다. MODTRAN 모의와 온도 추정 정확도 검증에 사용되는 현장 관측 수온은 한반도 인근 해역에 위치한 해양 기상 부이(buoy)로부터 획득했다. 실험 결과, 알고리즘 불확도는 대기 수증기량에 따라서 선형에 가깝게 증가하는 것을 확인하였고, 가장 건조한 조건에서는 약 0.35K 그리고 평균적으로 0.45K 가량의 불확도가 발생함을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 재분석자료의 종류에 상관없이 유사하게 도출되어 알고리즘이 가지는 순수한 불확도라고 추정할 수 있었다.

Research on Robust Stability Analysis and Worst Case Identification Methods for Parameters Uncertain Missiles

  • Hou, Zhenqian;Liang, Xiaogeng;Wang, Wenzheng
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2014
  • For robust stability analysis of parameters uncertainty missiles, the traditional frequency domain method can only analyze each respective channel at several interval points within uncertain parameter space. Discontinuous calculation and couplings between channels will lead to inaccurate analysis results. A method based on the ${\nu}$-gap metric is proposed, which is able to comprehensively evaluate the robust stability of missiles with uncertain parameters; and then a genetic-simulated annealing hybrid optimization algorithm, which has global and local searching ability, is used to search for a parameters combination that leads to the worst stability within the space of uncertain parameters. Finally, the proposed method is used to analyze the robust stability of a re-entry missile with uncertain parameters; the results verify the feasibility and accuracy of the method.

강재 급속냉각용 고온 열유속게이지 개발 (Development of High-Temperature Heat Flux Gauge for Steel Quenching)

  • 이정호
    • 열처리공학회지
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.323-330
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    • 2010
  • The present study was motivated by increasing demands on quantitative measurements of the heat flux through the water cooling and quenching process of hot steel. The local heat flux measurements are employed by a novel experimental technique that has a function of high-temperature heat flux gauge in which test block assemblies are directly used to measure the heat flux variation during water cooling and quenching of hot steel. The heat flux can be directly achieved by Fourier's law and is also compared with numerical estimation which is solved by inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP). The high-temperature heat flux gauge developed in this study can be applicable to measure cooling rate and history during the actual cooling applications of steelmaking process. In addition, the measurement uncertainty of heat flux is calculated by a quantitative uncertainty analysis which is based on the ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-2005 standard.

시장 환경에 입각한 지역 지상파 방송사 조직의 상호작용 특성에 대한 탐사적 연구 (An Exploratory Study on the Interaction among Local Broadcast Stations based on Market Environment)

  • 권장원
    • 한국언론정보학보
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    • 제52권
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    • pp.27-47
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 시장 환경적 특성과 함께 조직 내부의 재원 구성 및 조직 구성의 특성을 분석하고, 이 과정에서 조직과 환경, 조직과 조직, 조직 내부의 상호작용 특성과 문제점 등을 종합적으로 조망하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 지역 방송에서의 시장 환경적 특성과 조직 내부 구조, 그리고 재원 구조의 특성은 최근 3년간 발간된 각종 통계 자료를 평균하여 현실에서의 환경 요인을 분석하고자 하였으며, 이러한 외적인 환경과 내부 구조적 특징과 더불어 외부 환경과 타 조직, 그리고 조직 내부 상호작용 특성 및 각종 문제점 등을 내부 구성원들에 대한 심층 인터뷰를 통해 지역 방송사 조직과 외부환경과의 상호작용 특성과 그 문제점 등을 탐사적으로 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 제한된 지역 시장 환경에 경쟁 체제가 도입되고, 재원 확보 및 조직 구조가 열악한 속에서 지역 방송사 조직은 시장 환경의 확장과 조직 간, 조직 내 상호작용방식 전환을 통해 조직의 내적 역량의 열악함을 극복하고자 하지만, 상호작용 과정에서 발생하는 다양한 불확실성과 이해관계의 첨예한 대립 등으로 인해 적지 않은 어려움을 겪고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 시장 환경의 불확실성과 한계를 극복하기 위한 제도적 방안이 제 효과를 발휘하지 못함에 따라, 역량 강화를 위한 투자와 장기적인 인사 정책 수립이 어렵게 되고, 이는 시점에 따른 인력 구조의 편중과 더불어 방송사 조직 내부의 불안정을 가져오는 주요한 구조적요인으로 작용하고 있는 것으로 해석 가능하다.

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Energy-Efficient Power Control for Underlaying D2D Communication with Channel Uncertainty: User-Centric Versus Network-Centric

  • Ding, Jianfeng;Jiang, Lingge;He, Chen
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.589-599
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    • 2016
  • Most existing resource management problem models arise from the original desire of allocating resources in either a user-centric or network-centric manner. The difference between their objectives is obvious: user-centric methods attempt to optimize the utility of individual users, whereas network-centric models intend to optimize the collective utilities of the entire network. In this paper, from the above two aspects, we analyze the robust power control problem in device-to-device (D2D) communication underlaying cellular networks, where two types of channel uncertainty set (e.g., ellipsoidal and column-wise) are considered. In the user-centric method, we formulate the problem into the form of a Stackelberg game, where the energy efficiency (EE) of each user is the ingredient of utility function. In order to protect the cellular user equipment's (CUE) uplink transmission, we introduce a price based cost function into the objectives of D2D user equipment (DUE). The existence and uniqueness of the game with the influence of channel uncertainty and price are discussed. In the network-centric method, we aim to maximize the collective EE of CUEs and DUEs. We show that by the appropriate mathematical transformation, the network-centric D2D power control problem has the identical local solution to that of a special case of the user-centric problem, where price plays a key role. Numerical results show the performance of the robust power control algorithms in the user-centric and network-centric models.