• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.11-20
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• 2016

For accurate wind resource assessment and wind turbine performance test, it is essential to secure wind data covering a rotor plane of wind turbine including a hub height. In general, we can depict wind speed profile by extrapolating or interpolating the wind speed data measured from a meteorological tower where multiple anemometers are mounted at different heights using a power-law of wind speed profile. The most important parameter of a power-law equation is a vertical wind profile exponent which represents local characteristics of terrain and land cover. In this study, we calculated diurnal vertical wind profile exponents of 8 locations in Jeju Island who possesses excellent wind resource according to the GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) to evaluate its uncertainty. Expanded uncertainty is calculated by combined standard uncertainty, which is the result of composing type A standard uncertainty with type B standard uncertainty. Although pooled standard deviation should be considered to derive type A uncertainty, we used the standard deviation of vertical wind profile exponent of each day avoiding the difficult of uncertainty evaluation of diurnal wind profile variation. It is anticipated that the evaluated uncertainties of diurnal vertical wind profile exponents at 8 locations in Jeju Island are to be registered as a national standard reference data and widely used in the relevant areas.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.89-114
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• 2015

We investigate the structural relationships between quality of service from Trade Promotion Agency(TPA), environmental uncertainty, and firms' uses of the service, export market orientation and export performance, using data from Korean export firms, Seoul Metropolitan export firms and local export firms. In particular, this article attempts to analyze how firms' uses of service from TPA may be influenced by their export market orientation, environmental uncertainty, and the service quality. The results from the study show that in Seoul Metropolitan export firms, TPA's service quality, environmental uncertainty, and their export market orientation have positive effects on their uses of service from TPA, which leads to increase in their export performance. The study also finds a solid evidence that, in Seoul Metropolitan export firms, environmental uncertainty has a positive effect on their export market orientation, which enhances their export performance. The study, however, finds that in local export firms, environmental uncertainty and export market orientation do not significantly affect their uses of service from TPA and export performance, respectively.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.95-111
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• 2014

It is essential to carry out an economic analysis on public water supply projects so that policy makers and water enterprises are aware of the actual value of the project. However, many popular approaches based on discounted cash flow analysis do not capture the uncertainties inherent in cash flow. In order to analyze the economic values of the water supply project of local governments, we utilize real option model, which considers uncertainty in future water price behavior and captures the value of real life flexibility. The real option model is designed to incorporate the option to expand and abandon, and it is applied to a local government case. Furthermore, we assess the project by exploring Luehrman's option space to accommodate the more efficient decision making. The results show that substantial amount of potential value is included in the public water supply service, and the overall value is greater than the value obtained from the discounted cash flow model.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.13-25
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• 2015

This paper proposes an extended model evaluation method that considers not only the model performance but also the model structure and parameter uncertainties in hydrologic modeling. A simple reservoir model (SFM) and distributed kinematic wave models (KWMSS1 and KWMSS2 using topography from 250-m, 500-m, and 1-km digital elevation models) were developed and assessed by three evaluative criteria for model performance, model structural stability, and parameter identifiability. All the models provided acceptable performance in terms of a global response, but the simpler SFM and KWMSS1 could not accurately represent the local behaviors of hydrographs. Moreover, SFM and KWMSS1 were structurally unstable; their performance was sensitive to the applied objective functions. On the other hand, the most sophisticated model, KWMSS2, performed well, satisfying both global and local behaviors. KMSS2 also showed good structural stability, reproducing hydrographs regardless of the applied objective functions; however, superior parameter identifiability was not guaranteed. A number of parameter sets could result in indistinguishable hydrographs. This result indicates that while making hydrologic models complex increases its performance accuracy and reduces its structural uncertainty, the model is likely to suffer from parameter uncertainty.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.1589-1592
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• 1997

Among the prerequisite abilities (perception of environment, path planning and position estimation) of an autonomous mobile robot, position estimation has been seldom studied by mobile robot researchers. In most cases, conventional positioin estimation has been performed by placing landmarks or giving the entrire environmental information in advance. Unlikely to the conventional ones, the study addresses a new method that the robot itself can select distinctive features in the environment and save them as landmarks without any a priori knowledge, which can maximize the autonomous behavior of the robot. First, an orjentaion probaility model is applied to construct a lcoal map of robot's surrounding. The feature of the object in the map is then extracted and the map is saved as landmark. Also, presented is the position estimation method that utilizes the correspondence between landmarks and current local map. In dong this, the uncertainty of the robot's current positioin is estimated in order to select the corresponding landmark stored in the previous steps. The usefulness of all these approaches are illustrated with the results porduced by a real robot equipped with ultrasonic sensors.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.433-438
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• 2020

Accurate forecasting of wind power is important for grid operation. Wind power has intermittent and nonlinear characteristics, which increases the uncertainty in wind power generation. In order to accurately predict wind power generation with high uncertainty, it is necessary to analyze the factors affecting wind power generation. In this paper, 6 factors out of 11 are selected for more accurate wind power generation forecast. These are wind speed, sine value of wind direction, cosine value of wind direction, local pressure, ground temperature, and history data of wind power generated.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Visualization
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.48-57
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• 2019

A straightforward strategy for particle image velocimetry (PIV) interrogation and post-processing has been proposed, aiming at reducing errors and clarifying vortex structures. The interrogation window size should be kept small to reduce bias error and improve spatial resolution. A spatial filter is then applied to the velocity field to reduce random error and clarify flow structure. The performance of three popular spatial filters were assessed: box filter, median filter, and local quadratic polynomial regression filter. In order to quantify random uncertainty, the image matching (IM) method is applied to an experimental dataset of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence (HIT) obtained by 2D-PIV. We statistically analyze the uncertainty propagation through the spatial filters, and verify the reduction in random uncertainty. Moreover, we illustrate that the spatial filters help clarify vortex structures using vortex identification criteria. As a result, PIV random uncertainty was reduced and the vortex structures became clearer by spatial filtering.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.591-595
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• 2010

Conventional methods of model evaluation usually rely only on model performance based on a comparison of simulated variables to corresponding observations. However, this type of model evaluation has been criticized because of its insufficient consideration of the various uncertainty sources involved in modeling processes. This study aims to propose an extended model evaluation method using multiple assesment indices (MAIs) that consider not only the model performance but also the model structure and parameter uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modeling. A simple reservoir model (SFM) and distributed kinematic wave models (KWMSS1 and KWMSS2 using topography from 250m, 500m, and 1km digital elevation models) were developed and assessed by three MAIs for model performance, model structural stability, and parameter identifiability. All the models provided acceptable performance in terms of a global response, but the simpler SFM and KWMSS1 could not accurately represent the local behaviors of hydrographs. In addition, SFM and KWMSS1 were structurally unstable; their performance was sensitive to the applied objective functions. On the other hand, the most sophisticated model, KWMSS2, performed well, satisfying both global and local behaviors. KMSS2 also showed good structural stability, reproducing hydrographs regardless of the applied objective functions; however, superior parameter identifiability was not guaranteed. Numerous parameter sets could lead to indistinguishable hydrographs. This result supports that while making a model complex increases its performance accuracy and reduces its structural uncertainty, the model is likely to suffer from parameter uncertainty. The proposed model evaluation process can provide an effective guideline for identifying a reliable hydrologic model.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.409-415
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• 2015

For the design of Concrete-Filled Steel Tube(CFST) columns, the outside diameter D to the steel tube thickness t ratio(D/t ratio) is limited to prevent the local buckling of steel tubes. Each design code proposes the respective model to compute the maximum D/t ratio using the yield strength of steel $f_y$ or $f_y$ and the elastic modulus of steel E. Considering the uncertainty in $f_y$ and E, the reliability index ${beta}$ for the local buckling of a CFST section can be calculated by formulating the limit state function including the maximum D/t models. The resulted ${beta}$ depends on the maximum D/t model used for the reliability analysis. This variability in reliability analysis is due to ambiguity in choosing computational models and it is called as "modelling uncertainty." This uncertainty can be considered as "non-specificity" of an epistemic uncertainty and modelled by constructing possibility distribution functions. In this study, three different computation models for the maximum D/t ratio are used to conduct reliability analyses for the local buckling of a CFST section and the reliability index ${beta}$ will be computed respectively. The "non-specific ${beta}s$" will be modelled by possibility distribution function and a metric, degree of confirmation, is measured from the possibility distribution function. It is shown that the degree of confirmation increases when ${beta}$ decreases. Conclusively, a new set of reliability indices associated with a degree of confirmation is determined and it is allowed to decide reliability index for the local buckling of a CFST section with an acceptable confirmation level.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.297-305
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• 1996

In this paper a novel robust adaptive fuzzy controller for the nonlinear system with state-dependent uncertainty is proposed. The conventional adaptive fuzzy controller determines the function of state variable bounding the state-dependent uncertain term in the system dynamics on the local state space by off-line calculation. Whereas the proposed method determines that function by the fuzzy inference so that it guarantees the stability of the closed loop system globally on the whole state space. In addition, the method is applicable to the multi-input system. We applied the proposed method to the Burn Control of the Tokamak fusion reactor whose dynamics contains the state-dependent uncertainty and proved the effectiveness of the scheme by using the simulation results.