• Title/Summary/Keyword: Local Weather Change

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Current status on the occurrence and management of disease, insect and mite pests in the non-chemical or organic apple orchards (무농약 유기재배 사과원의 병해충 발생 및 관리 실태)

  • Choi, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Hyuk;Song, Yang-Yik;Nam, Jong-Chul;Lee, Soon-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Organic Agriculture Conference
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    • 2009.12a
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2009
  • Current status on the occurrence and the management of the major disease, insect and mite pests were investigated in the organic or non-chemical pest control orchards from 2005 to 2009. Numbers of certified organic or non-chemical apple orchards were increased from 14 in 2005 to 78 in 2008. Severe damages on leaves and fruits occurred by the several diseases such as marssonina blotch, bitter rot, white rot, sooty blotch and flyspeck, and the several insect pests such as apple leaf-curling aphid, woolly apple aphid, oriental fruit moth and peach fruit moth on the almost certified organic or non-chemical pest control orchards. About 10 and 18 environmental-friendly materials were used to control diseases and insect or mite pests respectively. But, lime sulfur and bordeaux mixture to diseases and machine oil, plant oil mixed with egg yolk, and pheromone mating disruptions to insect pests were effective to control under the adequate conditions. At present, it is extremely difficult to produce organic apples in Korea. Growers must consider about and solve so many conditions on the cultivar, weather, local site, marketing and so on, before when they decide to change from conventional or IPM(Integrated Pest Management) to organic or non-chemical pest control orchards.

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The Applicability Assesment of the Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Using Translation Model (이류모델을 활용한 초단시간 강우예측의 적용성 평가)

  • Yoon, Seong-Sim;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.695-707
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    • 2010
  • The frequency and size of typhoon and local severe rainfall are increasing due to the climate change and the damage also increasing from typhoon and severe rainfall. The flood forecasting and warning system to reduce the damage from typhoon and severe rainfall needs forecasted rainfall using radar data and short-term rainfall forecasting model. For this reason, this study examined the applicability of short-term rainfall forecast using translation model with weather radar data to point out that the utilization of flood forecasting in Korea. This study estimated the radar rainfall using Least-square fitting method and estimated rainfall was used as initial field of translation model. The translation model have verified accuracy of forecasted radar rainfall through the comparison of forecasted radar rainfall and observed rainfall quantitatively and qualitatively. Almost case studies showed that accuracy is over 0.6 within 4 hours leading time and mean of correlation coefficient is over 0.5 within 1 hours leading time in Kwanak and Jindo radar site. And, as the increasing the leading time, the forecast accuracy of precipitation decreased. The results of the calculated Mean Area Precipitation (MAP) showed forecast rainfall tend to be underestimated than observed rainfall but the correlation coefficient more than 0.5. Therefore it showed that translation model could be accurately predicted the rainfall relatively. The present results indicate that possibility of translation model application of Korea just within 2 hours leading forecasted rainfall.

An Analysis of Changes in Rice Growth and Growth Period Using Climatic Tables of 1960s (1931~1960) and 2000s (1971~2000) (우리나라 1960년대 (1931~'60)와 2000년대 (1971~2000) 기후표를 이용한 벼 생육 및 재배기간 변화 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Taek;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Bang, Hea-Son;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Kang, Kee-Kyung;Na, Young-Eun;Han, Min-Su;Lee, Deog-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.1018-1023
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    • 2010
  • Climatic change was observed and analyzed in view of impacts on agricultural ecosystem, inter alia on rice cropping. The changed climate gave rise to earlier transplanting of rice seedling and later harvest after 40 years. Also phenological change and prolonged growth duration was observed. The meteorological data was selected from the standardized climatological data of 30 year normals of 1960s and 2000s, which were published by Korea Meteorological Administration. Development stages and growing periods of rice crop were compared by analyzing critical and optimum temperatures of each growth stage during these two periods. The first appearance date of $15^{\circ}C$ was ranged from Apr. 29 to May 23 in the year-normals of 1960s and it varied from Apr. 24 to May 16 in the normals of 2000s. The difference of the first appearance date of $15^{\circ}C$ was 0~10 days earlier in the year-normals of 2000s than the 1960s. The last harvesting date was determined to be the last appearance date of mean air temperature $15^{\circ}C$. The difference in the last appearance date of $15^{\circ}C$ was 1 to 13 days later in the year-normals of 2000s than in 1960s. The plant height of a rice variety, Hwayoung-byeo was 101~109 cm in 4 local areas, Seoul, Kangneung, Kwangju and Daegu. The plant height became 1~4 cm taller under warm condition. Rice grain yields estimated with daily weather data for the year-normals of 1960s and 2000s were 453~580 kg $10a^{-1}$ and 409~484 kg $10a^{-1}$ respectively. Rice grain yield of the former period was 50~100 kg $10a^{-1}$ higher than that hat in the later period.

Predicting Crime Risky Area Using Machine Learning (머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.64-80
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

Sensitivity of Simulated Water Temperature to Vertical Mixing Scheme and Water Turbidity in the Yellow Sea (수직 혼합 모수화 기법과 탁도에 따른 황해 수온 민감도 실험)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Taek;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Chang-Sin;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2013
  • Accurate prediction of sea water temperature has been emphasized to make precise local weather forecast and to understand change of ecosystem. The Yellow Sea, which has turbid water and strong tidal current, is an unique shallow marginal sea. It is essential to include the effects of the turbidity and the strong tidal mixing for the realistic simulation of temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. Evaluation of ocean circulation model response to vertical mixing scheme and turbidity is primary objective of this study. Three-dimensional ocean circulation model(Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used to perform numerical simulations. Mellor- Yamada level 2.5 closure (M-Y) and K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) scheme were selected for vertical mixing parameterization in this study. Effect of Jerlov water type 1, 3 and 5 was also evaluated. The simulated temperature distribution was compared with the observed data by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute to estimate model's response to turbidity and vertical mixing schemes in the Yellow Sea. Simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme produced relatively stronger vertical mixing and warmer bottom temperature than the observation. KPP scheme produced weaker vertical mixing and did not well reproduce tidal mixing front along the coast. However, KPP scheme keeps bottom temperature closer to the observation. Consequently, numerical ocean circulation simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme tends to produce well mixed vertical temperature structure and that with KPP vertical mixing scheme tends to make stratified vertical temperature structure. When Jerlov water type is higher, sea surface temperature is high and sea bottom temperature is low because downward shortwave radiation is almost absorbed near the sea surface.

A Study on the Attraction Factors of Eco-city using Importance-Satisfaction Analysis - The Case of Suncheon City - (중요도-만족도(ISA) 분석을 활용한 생태도시 매력요인에 관한 연구 - 전남 순천시를 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Jeong;Kim, Sa-Rang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.52-64
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    • 2014
  • I the recent years, Seoul, Daejeon, Changwon, and Suncheon have started to strengthen P.R. efforts on eco-brands produced by the city and to publicize as a specialized tourist city in an attempt to change their identity and image. However, there is actually a question whether the efforts of the local governments have any direct impact on satisfaction with urban living environments and the attractions of the city. The purpose of this study was to examine the awareness of residents and visitors about the attractions of Suncheon City as an eco-city and to discuss the planning criteria for the eco-city brand building and its management. The research data was collected in Suncheon City and main results of this study are as follows. The residents and the visitors investigated were satisfied with the environmental friendliness of this city and regarded it as an eco-city. As a result of asking them why they viewed the city as an eco-city, many of the residents cited diverse green tracts of land as the reason, whereas the visitors replied they were satisfied with the state of marshy areas preserved by the city. The psychological factors related to the satisfaction of the eco-city by the residents were composed of four factors, 'cultural factor', 'urban infrastructure factor', 'ecological factor' and 'scenery factor'. The visitors were composed of five factors, 'cultural factor', 'urban infrastructure factor', 'ecological factor', 'scenery factor' and 'amenity factor'. Out of the factors, the cultural factor and the urban infrastructure factor were found to exert the largest influence on the overall satisfaction of the residents and the visitors. The ISA(Importance-Satisfaction Analysis) was made, the residents and the visitors gave top priority to 'diversity of natural attractions', 'pleasant season and weather', 'beautiful scenery', 'diversity of rare animals and plants', 'diversity of parks', 'green areas and streets', 'broad ecological area' and 'the preservation of marshy areas' among the attractions of the eco-city. They placed importance on the activation of green traffic and walking environments as well, but they weren't satisfied with the state of the two in the city. Therefore there was much room for improvement in that regard.