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Prediction of Stock Returns from News Article's Recommended Stocks Using XGBoost and LightGBM Models

  • Yoo-jin Hwang;Seung-yeon Son;Zoon-ky Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2024
  • This study examines the relationship between the release of the news and the individual stock returns. Investors utilize a variety of information sources to maximize stock returns when establishing investment strategies. News companies publish their articles based on stock recommendation reports of analysts, enhancing the reliability of the information. Defining release of a stock-recommendation news article as an event, we examine its economic impacts and propose a binary classification model that predicts the stock return 10 days after the event. XGBoost and LightGBM models are applied for the study with accuracy of 75%, 71% respectively. In addition, after categorizing the recommended stocks based on the listed market(KOSPI/KOSDAQ) and market capitalization(Big/Small), this study verifies difference in the accuracy of models across four sub-datasets. Finally, by conducting SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) analysis, we identify the key variables in each model, reinforcing the interpretability of models.

Case Study of 1-bromopropane Exposure Assessment During Aircraft Disinfection and Seat Cover Replacement Work (항공기의 소독작업 및 좌석커버 교체작업에서 1-브로모프로판 노출평가 사례)

  • Hae Dong Park;Jiwon Ro;Miyeon Jang;Sungho Kim;Se-Dong Kim;Hyounmin Cho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.8-13
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: To evaluate the levels of exposure to organic compounds during aircraft disinfection and seat cover replacement operations. Methods: According to the working schedule, organic compounds were collected using activated carbon tubes and then analyzed by GC/FID and GC/MSD. Results: In the disinfection task, the main substances listed in the material safety data sheet (MSDS) of the disinfectant were not detected. However, 1-bromopropane, which had been used in the previous task of replacing seat covers, was detected at a level of 2.37 ppm at the measurement time. During seat cover replacement, bonding workers were exposed to 2.48 ppm on an eight-hour time-weighted average, and seat cover replacement workers were exposed to 0.22 ppm. Conclusions: It is necessary to ensure the reliability of MSDS. A work environment management system is necessary when different companies alternate working in the same place.

Analysis of Corporate Value Relevance Form of Tax Avoidance (조세회피의 기업가치 관련성 형태 분석)

  • Gee-Jung Kwon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.233-254
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study aims to verify whether the effect of tax avoidance on corporate value is non-linear in the Korean financial markets. Design/methodology/approach - This study believes that the cause of the inconsistent empirical analysis results of previous studies that verified the relationship between tax avoidance and firm value may be an error in assuming linearity, and verifies whether a nonlinear relationship exists. The sample company in this study is a December settlement corporation listed on the Korean stock market, and the analysis period is from 2000 to 2021. In the empirical analysis model, Tobin's Q is used as a proxy for corporate value, tax avoidance is used as the main independent variable, and a regression model is designed with corporate size, growth rate, and debt ratio set as control variables. Findings - As a result of the empirical analysis, it can be confirmed that there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between tax avoidance and corporate value. In the additional analysis using Ohlson (1995) firm valuation model for the robustness of the results of the empirical analysis, the same nonlinear value relationship between tax avoidance can be confirmed. Research implications or Originality - This study is considered to be meaningful in that it verifies the non-linear relationship of tax avoidance, which has not been attempted in previous studies. The meaning of the inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship presented in this study is that corporate tax avoidance acts as a factor that increases corporate value up to a certain level, but rather becomes a factor that decreases corporate value when it exceeds a critical point. These results are expected to provide new perspectives and perspectives on tax avoidance to companies belonging to the Korean capital market.

The Effect of Audit Quality on Crash Risk: Focusing on Distribution & Service Companies (감사품질이 주가급락 위험에 미치는 영향: 유통, 서비스 기업을 중심으로)

  • Chae, Soo-Joon;Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - According to agency theory, managers have incentives to adjust firm revenues to meet earnings expectations or delay bad news disclosure because of performance-based compensation and their reputation in the market. When the bad news accumulates, stock prices fail to reflect all available information. Thus, market prices of stocks are higher than their intrinsic value. After all, bad news crosses the tipping point, it comes out all at once. That results in stock crashes. Auditors can decrease stock crash risk by reducing agency costs through their informational role. Especially, stock price crash risk is expected to be lower for firms adopting high-quality audits. We focus on distribution and service industry to examine the relation between audit quality and stock price crash risk. Industry specialization and auditor size are used as proxies for auditor quality. Research design, data and methodology - Our sample contains distribution and service industry firms listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ during a period of 2004-2011. We use a logistic regression to test whether auditor quality influences crash risk. Auditor quality was measured by industry specialist auditor and Big4 / non-Big4 dichotomy. Following the approach in prior researches, we use firm-specific weekly returns to measure crash risk. Firms experiencing at least one stock price crash in a specific week during year are classified as the high risk group. Results - The result of analyzing 429 companies in distribution and service industry is summarized as follows: Above all, it is shown that higher audit quality has a significant negative(-) effect on the crash risk. Crash risk is alleviated for firms audited by industry specialist auditors and Big 4 audit firms. Therefore, our results show that hypotheses are supported. Conclusions - This study is very meaningful as the first study which investigated the effects of high audit quality on stock price crash risk. We provide evidence that high-quality auditors reduce stock price crash risk. Our finding implies that the risk of extreme losses can be reduced through screening of high-quality auditors. Therefore investors and regulators may utilize our findings in their investment and rule making decisions.

The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation and External Oriented Organizational Culture on the Korean Manufacturing SMEs' Performance: Focusing on the Mediation Effect of Open Innovation (기업가 지향성과 개방적 조직문화가 기업성과에 미치는 영향: 개방형 혁신의 매개효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Eung-Seog;Kim, Byung-Keun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.37-68
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    • 2018
  • This study examines the effects of entrepreneurial orientation and external oriented organizational culture on the firm perfornamance focusing on mediating effects of open innovation. The survey was conducted on Korean manufacturing firms with 100-5,000 employees among listed companies and external auditing companies. The validity of the research model and hypotheses was verified through analysis of structural equation model for 283 valid responses. Empirical results show that entrepreneurial orientation positively affects both open innovation and firm's performance. The external oriented organizational culture of firms appears to be positive effects on open innovation, but the effect between the external oriented organizational culture and firm's performance shows no statistical significance. Open innovation have positive effects on firm performance. In addition, a test for mediation effects of open innovation reveals that a full mediation exists between the external oriented organizational culture and firm's performance, while there is a partial mediation effect between entrepreneurial orientation and firm's performance. This study contribute to the literature by deepening understanding on the open innovation. We propose an integrated model for examining antecedent factors, open innovation and performance.

The Impact of Alliance on Market Value of the Bio-pharmaceutical Firm in Korea (국내 제약·바이오기업들의 제휴가 기업의 시장가치에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Haesoon;Lee, Heesang
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.149-161
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyzed the impact of alliances on the market value of the 106 bio-pharmaceutical companies listed on the KOSPI or KOSDAQ in Korea by using the 'Event study methodology'. Although general alliances did not impact the corporate value significantly, in the analysis corresponding to the alliance type, R&D alliances created positive value, as technology acts as an important factor for the alliance. Among the R&D alliances, 'Technology Transfer alliances', in particular 'Development Technology Transfer alliances', had a positive influence on the corporate value. We interpret these differentiated results as market tends to screen for types of alliances. Meanwhile, we confirmed that the possibility of a stock price increase before the alliance announcement is high by analyzing the impact of the timing of corporate alliance announcements on the company value. It can be inferred that the possibility of information leakage is high. This paper analyzes the impact of alliances for managers and practitioners seeking to create value for domestic bio-pharmaceutical companies, and suggests the need to prevent information leakages by establishing a suitable policy.

The Effect of Corporate Governance on Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Tax Avoidance (기업지배구조가 가중평균자본비용과 조세회피간의 관련성에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hwa Ryeong;Kim, Jin Seop
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.543-548
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    • 2017
  • This paper examines the effects of strong corporate governance for listed companies in accessing capital markets from the point of view of the weighted average cost of capital. Results found that corporate governance had a significant negative(-) relation to the weighted average cost of capital. This finding is consistent with previous research and implies that the higher shareholder ownership and foreign ownership have confidence in the financial information of the company, and therefore, risk is reduced for investors. This results in lower expected rates of return and companies will pay a lower cost of capital. Second, tax evasion had a positive effect(+) on the weighted average cost of capital. The low quality of corporate accounting information is expected to increase tax avoidance. Accordingly, this results in increased risk. If the required rate of return is high in its impact,it leads to increased capital costs. In addition, corporate governance and tax avoidance factors showed a negative affect (-) on the weighted average cost of capital. Corporate governance plays an important role in tax avoidance and the weighted average cost of capital, and strong corporate governance reducesthe impact on tax avoidance. In addition, the weighted average cost of capital in capital markets showed the reducing effect.

A Study of Calculating Audit Fee According to the Number of Input Auditors and Audit Input Times: Focusing on the Companies of 100 Billion KRW Assets (회계감사 등급별 투입인원 및 투입시간 산출에 따른 감사보수산정 연구 -자산규모 천억원 기업을 중심으로-)

  • Mun, Tae-Hyoung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.231-247
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    • 2016
  • This study, according to the amendment of the Act on External Audit, on the basis of the number of input auditors, the content of auditing, and audit times as additional informations, calculates the average of the samples listed companies with assets of one hundred billion KRW. However, since the actual number of the subject corporations of which asset is 100 billion KRW is small, it is difficult to extract data with reference to this asset size. Therefore, the samples were extended to 50 corporations of which asset is 10% less than 100 billion KRW and other 50 more corporations of which asset is 10% more than 100 billion KRW. As a result, a total of 100 corporations were included as samples. To calculate the average of the audit times, a t-test was performed between the two groups. The result of the t-test showed that there is not a significant difference between the two groups. According to the analytical results of the t-test, the average of the number of input auditors and the average of audit times were calculated with respect to all the 100 samples. A further analysis showed that the average of audit content in the present study was compared with the estimated values in the study of Mun (2016). Although the results of this study may not be the optimal number, they may be used as a fundamental index which may be compared with the audit times and the audit fees in the current audit market where there is not an available reference. In addition, the amendment of the Act on External Audit may enhance the independence of auditors and the transparency of accounting system when compared with the previous system where only the total audit times were disclosed.

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An Examination of FIN 48 Disclosures: Evidence from Korean Companies (FIN 48 주석사항 검토: 한국기업을 중심으로)

  • Song, Bomi;Jung, Woon-Oh;Roh, Hee Chun
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.17-42
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    • 2016
  • Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Interpretation No. 48 (FIN 48), Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes: An interpretation of FASB Statement No. 109, requires firms to evaluate uncertain tax positions and disclose information on their liabilities for these positions, unrecognized tax benefits (UTBs). We analyze the FIN 48 disclosures for calendar-year-end Korean companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ and examine the Korean firms' tax aggressiveness utilizing the UTBs. The results suggest that stock exchange and firm size do not play a role in the Korean firms' tax aggressiveness, contrary to the matched U.S. firms and that the Korean firm in the miscellaneous retail industry is more tax aggressive than the firms in the communications, depository institutions and business services. In addition, we find evidence that the Korean firms are less tax aggressive than the matched U.S. firms. We also examine the Korean firms' tax avoidance tendencies using other measures of avoidance, leading to mixed results. Finally, we examine the association between the UTBs and other measures of tax avoidance and find a significant and negative association between the UTBs and the long-run cash effective tax rate.

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Marketing Organization's Regulatory Focus and NPD Creativity: The Moderating Role of Creativity Enhancement Tools (마케팅 부서의 조절초점과 신제품 개발 창의성: 창의성 증진수단의 조절효과)

  • Kang, Seong-Ho;Son, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Because creativity, which is an intangible resource embedded within the company, can offer a competitive advantage, most companies have an interest in promoting creativity among their employees and division(e.g., marketing organization). Creativity renders a sustainable competitive advantage to a firm because it is a strategic resource that is valuable, flexible, rare, and imperfectly imitable or substitutable. Although most companies broadly recognize the importance of creativity, the methods for developing creativity remain elusive. Therefore, the present study investigates how to structure incentives to motivate employees to be more creative and how to develop tools to facilitate creativity. In detail, the present study aimed to examine the relationship between the regulatory focus of marketing organizations(e.g., promotion focus vs prevention focus) and creativity of marketing organizations. In addition, the present study set out to examine the moderating role of interaction of financial reward and creative training in addition to investigating the direct relationship between creativity and regulatory focus in New Product Development(NPD) context. Research design, data, and methodology - The data used to test the hypotheses are drawn from a survey of full time NPD project members(including project manager, designer, engineer, and marketer). The present study utilized data obtained mainly from a database compiled by the Korea Investors Service-Financial Analysis System which provides comprehensive corporate and financial information on firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. A study population comprising 1,000 South Korean firms was obtained from this database. We selected 864 firms from the database, and the firms have experiences of new product development project. We collected a total of 162 responses, for a 18.8% response rate. After we excluded 14 questionnaire because of incomplete responses, a total of 148 questionnaire remained(final response rate: 17.1%). Working with a sample of 148 responses in South Korea, hierarchical moderated regression is employed to test research hypotheses(

    The relationship between promotion focus and creativity of marketing organization,

    The relationship between prevention focus and creativity of marketing organization,

    The moderating effect of joint influences(interaction between financial rewards and creativity training) on the relationship between promotion focus creativity of marketing organization,

    The moderating effect of joint influences(interaction between financial rewards and creativity training) on the relationship between prevention focus creativity of marketing organization). SPSS 18.0 and AMOS software were used in the data analysis. Results - The empirical study confirmed that promotion focus of marketing organization is positively related to creativity of marketing organization. Also, prevention focus of marketing organization is positively affected to creativity of marketing organization. In addition, the interaction between financial rewards and creativity training moderated the relationship between regularity focus(e.g.), promotion focus vs prevention focus) and creativity of marketing organization. These results suggest that managers can improve the performances of their creative efforts by providing the use of financial rewards and creativity training in combination. Conclusion - Based on results of this study that examine the effects of regulatory focused creative efforts on creativity of marketing organization, promotion focus is helpful with marketing organizations to enhance their service innovation and performance. Prevention focused organization should allow monetary rewards and creativity training to increase their creativity for innovation of new products.