• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear predictive model

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Forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic situation of Korea

  • Goo, Taewan;Apio, Catherine;Heo, Gyujin;Lee, Doeun;Lee, Jong Hyeok;Lim, Jisun;Han, Kyulhee;Park, Taesung
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.11.1-11.8
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    • 2021
  • For the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), predictive modeling, in the literature, uses broadly susceptible exposed infected recoverd (SEIR)/SIR, agent-based, curve-fitting models. Governments and legislative bodies rely on insights from prediction models to suggest new policies and to assess the effectiveness of enforced policies. Therefore, access to accurate outbreak prediction models is essential to obtain insights into the likely spread and consequences of infectious diseases. The objective of this study is to predict the future COVID-19 situation of Korea. Here, we employed 5 models for this analysis; SEIR, local linear regression (LLR), negative binomial (NB) regression, segment Poisson, deep-learning based long short-term memory models (LSTM) and tree based gradient boosting machine (GBM). After prediction, model performance comparison was evelauated using relative mean squared errors (RMSE) for two sets of train (January 20, 2020-December 31, 2020 and January 20, 2020-January 31, 2021) and testing data (January 1, 2021-February 28, 2021 and February 1, 2021-February 28, 2021) . Except for segmented Poisson model, the other models predicted a decline in the daily confirmed cases in the country for the coming future. RMSE values' comparison showed that LLR, GBM, SEIR, NB, and LSTM respectively, performed well in the forecasting of the pandemic situation of the country. A good understanding of the epidemic dynamics would greatly enhance the control and prevention of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. Therefore, with increasing daily confirmed cases since this year, these results could help in the pandemic response by informing decisions about planning, resource allocation, and decision concerning social distancing policies.

Time Series Analysis for Predicting Deformation of Earth Retaining Walls (시계열 분석을 이용한 흙막이 벽체 변형 예측)

  • Seo, Seunghwan;Chung, Moonkyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2024
  • This study employs traditional statistical auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) models to predict the deformation of earth retaining walls using inclinometer data from excavation sites. It compares the predictive capabilities of both models. The ARIMA model excels in analyzing linear patterns as time progresses, while the LSTM model is adept at handling complex nonlinear patterns and long-term dependencies in the data. This research includes preprocessing of inclinometer measurement data, performance evaluation across various data lengths and input conditions, and demonstrates that the LSTM model provides statistically significant improvements in prediction accuracy over the ARIMA model. The findings suggest that LSTM models can effectively assess the stability of retaining walls at excavation sites. Additionally, this study is expected to contribute to the development of safety monitoring systems at excavation sites and the advancement of time series prediction models.

A PCA-based MFDWC Feature Parameter for Speaker Verification System (화자 검증 시스템을 위한 PCA 기반 MFDWC 특징 파라미터)

  • Hahm Seong-Jun;Jung Ho-Youl;Chung Hyun-Yeol
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2006
  • A Principal component analysis (PCA)-based Mel-Frequency Discrete Wavelet Coefficients (MFDWC) feature Parameters for speaker verification system is Presented in this Paper In this method, we used the 1st-eigenvector obtained from PCA to calculate the energy of each node of level that was approximated by. met-scale. This eigenvector satisfies the constraint of general weighting function that the squared sum of each component of weighting function is unity and is considered to represent speaker's characteristic closely because the 1st-eigenvector of each speaker is fairly different from the others. For verification. we used Universal Background Model (UBM) approach that compares claimed speaker s model with UBM on frame-level. We performed experiments to test the effectiveness of PCA-based parameter and found that our Proposed Parameters could obtain improved average Performance of $0.80\%$compared to MFCC. $5.14\%$ to LPCC and 6.69 to existing MFDWC.

Optimal design of bio-inspired isolation systems using performance and fragility objectives

  • Hu, Fan;Shi, Zhiguo;Shan, Jiazeng
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.325-343
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to propose a performance-based design method of a novel passive base isolation system, BIO isolation system, which is inspired by an energy dissipation mechanism called 'sacrificial bonds and hidden length'. Fragility functions utilized in this study are derived, indicating the probability that a component, element, or system will be damaged as a function of a single predictive demand parameter. Based on PEER framework methodology for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), a systematic design procedure using performance and fragility objectives is presented. Base displacement, superstructure absolute acceleration and story drift ratio are selected as engineering demand parameters. The new design method is then performed on a general two degree-of-freedom (2DOF) structure model and the optimal design under different seismic intensities is obtained through numerical analysis. Seismic performances of the biologically inspired (BIO) isolation system are compared with that of the linear isolation system. To further demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this method, the BIO isolation system of a 4-storey reinforced concrete building is designed and investigated. The newly designed BIO isolators effectively decrease the superstructure responses and base displacement under selected earthquake excitations, showing good seismic performance.

Appraisal of re-irradiation for the recurrent glioblastoma in the era of MGMT promotor methylation

  • Kim, Il Han
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2019
  • Despite recent innovation in treatment techniques and subsequently improved outcomes, the majority of glioblastoma (GBL) have relapses, especially in locoregional areas. Local re-irradiation (re-RT) has been established as a feasible option for recurrent GBL of all ages with safety, tolerability, and effectiveness both in survival and quality of life regardless of fractionation schedule. To keep adverse effects under acceptable range, cumulative dose limit in equivalent dose at 2 Gy fractions by the linear-quadratic model at α/β = 2 for normal brain tissue (EQD2) with narrow margin should be observed and single/hypofractionated re-RT should be undertaken very carefully to recurrent tumor with large volume or adjacent to the brainstem. Promising outcome of re-operation (re-Op) plus re-RT (re-Op/RT) need to be validated and result from re-RT with temozolomide/bevacizumab (TMZ/BV) or new strategy is expected. Development of new-concept prognostic scoring or risk group is required to select patients properly and make use of predictive biomarkers such as O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promotor methylation that influence outcomes of re-RT, re-Op/RT, or re-RT with TMZ/BV.

A comparative study of different active heave compensation approaches

  • Zinage, Shrenik;Somayajula, Abhilash
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.373-397
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    • 2020
  • Heave compensation is a vital part of various marine and offshore operations. It is used in various applications, including the transfer of cargo between two vessels in the open ocean, installation of topsides of an offshore structure, offshore drilling and for surveillance, reconnaissance and monitoring. These applications typically involve a load suspended from a hydraulically powered winch that is connected to a vessel that is undergoing dynamic motion in the ocean environment. The goal in these applications is to design a winch controller to keep the load at a regulated height by rejecting the net heave motion of the winch arising from ship motions at sea. In this study, we analyze and compare the performance of various control algorithms in stabilizing a suspended load while the vessel is subjected to changing sea conditions. The KCS container ship is chosen as the vessel undergoing dynamic motion in the ocean. The negative of the net heave motion at the winch is provided as a reference signal to track. Various control strategies like Proportional-Derivative (PD) Control, Model Predictive Control (MPC), Linear Quadratic Integral Control (LQI), and Sliding Mode Control (SMC) are implemented and tuned for effective heave compensation. The performance of the controllers is compared with respect to heave compensation, disturbance rejection and noise attenuation.

Comparison of Scala and R for Machine Learning in Spark (스파크에서 스칼라와 R을 이용한 머신러닝의 비교)

  • Woo-Seok Ryu
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.85-90
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    • 2023
  • Data analysis methodology in the healthcare field is shifting from traditional statistics-oriented research methods to predictive research using machine learning. In this study, we survey various machine learning tools, and compare several programming models, which utilize R and Spark, for applying R, a statistical tool widely used in the health care field, to machine learning. In addition, we compare the performance of linear regression model using scala, which is the basic languages of Spark and R. As a result of the experiment, the learning execution time when using SparkR increased by 10 to 20% compared to Scala. Considering the presented performance degradation, SparkR's distributed processing was confirmed as useful in R as the traditional statistical analysis tool that could be used as it is.

Effect of Silica Nanoparticles on Tear Strength of CR Compounds: A Comparison Study between the ASTM D470 and DIN VDE 0472-613

  • Changsin Park;Byeong-Rea Son;Gi-Bbeum Lee;Changwoon Nah
    • Elastomers and Composites
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.34-41
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    • 2024
  • In this study, the effects of the type and content of silica on the mechanical and tear properties of chloroprene rubber (CR), which is mainly used as a jacket material for mining cables, were studied. The crosslinking density (ΔM) and reinforcing factor (αf) defined using cure characteristics increased with increasing silica content, whereas the cure rate decreased. The hardness, tensile strength, and modulus of the CR compounds increased depending on the silica content and structural development. The reinforcing behavior of the silica-filled CR compounds according to the silica type and content showed the best fit with the Thomas equation of the predictive model. Tear strength was evaluated using two standard test methods, ASTM D470 and DIN VDE 0472-613, and the results were compared. The tear strength increased as the silica content increased, regardless of the test method, and the different tear strengths obtained by the two standard test methods showed a linear relationship with each other, indicating a high correlation.

A predictive model to guide management of the overlap region between target volume and organs at risk in prostate cancer volumetric modulated arc therapy

  • Mattes, Malcolm D.;Lee, Jennifer C.;Elnaiem, Sara;Guirguis, Adel;Ikoro, N.C.;Ashamalla, Hani
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: The goal of this study is to determine whether the magnitude of overlap between planning target volume (PTV) and rectum ($Rectum_{overlap}$) or PTV and bladder ($Bladder_{overlap}$) in prostate cancer volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is predictive of the dose-volume relationships achieved after optimization, and to identify predictive equations and cutoff values using these overlap volumes beyond which the Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) dose-volume constraints are unlikely to be met. Materials and Methods: Fifty-seven patients with prostate cancer underwent VMAT planning using identical optimization conditions and normalization. The PTV (for the 50.4 Gy primary plan and 30.6 Gy boost plan) included 5 to 10 mm margins around the prostate and seminal vesicles. Pearson correlations, linear regression analyses, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to correlate the percentage overlap with dose-volume parameters. Results: The percentage $Rectum_{overlap}$ and $Bladder_{overlap}$ correlated with sparing of that organ but minimally impacted other dose-volume parameters, predicted the primary plan rectum $V_{45}$ and bladder $V_{50}$ with $R^2$ = 0.78 and $R^2$ = 0.83, respectively, and predicted the boost plan rectum $V_{30}$ and bladder $V_{30}$ with $R^2$ = 0.53 and $R^2$ = 0.81, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of boost $Rectum_{overlap}$ to predict rectum $V_{75}$ >15% was 3.5% (sensitivity 100%, specificity 94%, p < 0.01), and the optimal cutoff value of boost $Bladder_{overlap}$ to predict bladder $V_{80}$ >10% was 5.0% (sensitivity 83%, specificity 100%, p < 0.01). Conclusion: The degree of overlap between PTV and bladder or rectum can be used to accurately guide physicians on the use of interventions to limit the extent of the overlap region prior to optimization.

Application of UAV-based RGB Images for the Growth Estimation of Vegetable Crops

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Jung, Sang-Jin;Kwon, Young-Seok;Kim, Hak-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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    • 2017.04a
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    • pp.45-45
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    • 2017
  • On-site monitoring of vegetable growth parameters, such as leaf length, leaf area, and fresh weight, in an agricultural field can provide useful information for farmers to establish farm management strategies suitable for optimum production of vegetables. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are currently gaining a growing interest for agricultural applications. This study reports on validation testing of previously developed vegetable growth estimation models based on UAV-based RGB images for white radish and Chinese cabbage. Specific objective was to investigate the potential of the UAV-based RGB camera system for effectively quantifying temporal and spatial variability in the growth status of white radish and Chinese cabbage in a field. RGB images were acquired based on an automated flight mission with a multi-rotor UAV equipped with a low-cost RGB camera while automatically tracking on a predefined path. The acquired images were initially geo-located based on the log data of flight information saved into the UAV, and then mosaicked using a commerical image processing software. Otsu threshold-based crop coverage and DSM-based crop height were used as two predictor variables of the previously developed multiple linear regression models to estimate growth parameters of vegetables. The predictive capabilities of the UAV sensing system for estimating the growth parameters of the two vegetables were evaluated quantitatively by comparing to ground truth data. There were highly linear relationships between the actual and estimated leaf lengths, widths, and fresh weights, showing coefficients of determination up to 0.7. However, there were differences in slope between the ground truth and estimated values lower than 0.5, thereby requiring the use of a site-specific normalization method.

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