• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.1406-1420
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• 2017

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) play an important role in the fields of function approximation, prediction, and classification. ANN performance is critically dependent on the input parameters, including the number of neurons in each layer, and the optimal values of weights and biases assigned to each neuron. In this study, we apply the particle swarm optimization method, a popular optimization algorithm for determining the optimal values of weights and biases for every neuron in different layers of the ANN. Several regression models, including general linear regression, Fourier regression, smoothing spline, and polynomial regression, are conducted to evaluate the proposed method's prediction power compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) methods. In addition, residual analysis is conducted to evaluate the optimized ANN accuracy for both training and test datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively determine optimal values for neuron weights and biases, and high accuracy results are obtained for prediction applications. Evaluations of the proposed method reveal that it can be used for prediction and estimation purposes, with a high accuracy ratio, and the designed model provides a reliable technique for optimization. The simulation results show that the optimized ANN exhibits superior performance to MLR for prediction purposes.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.429-437
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• 2023

This paper studied the prediction of structural damage indices to buildings after earthquake occurrence using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) methods. Particularly, the structural damage degree, represented by the Maximum Inter Story Drift Ratio (MISDR), is an essential factor that ensures the safety of the building. Thus, the seismic response of a steel building was evaluated, utilizing 65 seismic accelerograms as input signals. Among the several response quantities, the focus is on the MISDR, which expresses the postseismic damage status. Using MLR and FLR methods and comparing the outputs with the corresponding evaluated by nonlinear dynamic analyses, it was concluded that the FLR method had the most accurate prediction results in contrast to the MLR method. A blind prediction applying a set of another 10 artificial accelerograms also examined the model's effectiveness. The results revealed that the use of the FLR method had the smallest average percentage error level for every set of applied accelerograms, and thus it is a suitable modeling tool in earthquake engineering.

• 기술사
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.1-5
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• 1985

In the flood prediction research, it is pointed out that the difficulty of flood prediction is the frequently experienced overestimation of flood peak. That is caused by the rainfall prediction difficulty and the nonlinearity of hydrological phenomena. Even though the former reason will remain still unsolved, but the latter one can be possibly resolved the method of the AMRA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model for each runoff component as developed by Dr. Hino and Dr. Hasebe. The principle of the method consists of separating though the numerical filters the total runoff time series into long-term, intermediate and short-term components, or ground water flow, interflow, and surface flow components. As a total system, a hydrological system is a non-linear one. However, once it is separated into two or three subsystems, each subsystem may be treated as a linear system. Also the rainfall components into each subsystem a estimated inversely from the runoff component which is separated from the observed flood. That is why flood prediction can be done without rainfall data. In the prediction of surface flow, the Kalman filter will be applicable but this paper shows only impulse function method.

• 대기
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.669-683
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• 2015

In this study, we investigated the prediction skills of four multiple linear regression methods for monthly air temperature over South Korea. We used simulation results from four regional climate models (RegCM4, SNURCM, WRF, and YSURSM) driven by two boundary conditions (NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and ERA-Interim). We selected 15 years (1989~2003) as the training period and the last 5 years (2004~2008) as validation period. The four regression methods used in this study are as follows: 1) Homogeneous Multiple linear Regression (HMR), 2) Homogeneous Multiple linear Regression constraining the regression coefficients to be nonnegative (HMR+), 3) non-homogeneous multiple linear regression (EMOS; Ensemble Model Output Statistics), 4) EMOS with positive coefficients (EMOS+). It is same method as the third method except for constraining the coefficients to be nonnegative. The four regression methods showed similar prediction skills for the monthly air temperature over South Korea. However, the prediction skills of regression methods which don't constrain regression coefficients to be nonnegative are clearly impacted by the existence of outliers. Among the four multiple linear regression methods, HMR+ and EMOS+ methods showed the best skill during the validation period. HMR+ and EMOS+ methods showed a very similar performance in terms of the MAE and RMSE. Therefore, we recommend the HMR+ as the best method because of ease of development and applications.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.459-475
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• 2009

This paper presents analytical methodologies for remaining life prediction of plain concrete structural components considering tension softening and size effects. Non-linear fracture mechanics principles (NLFM) have been used for crack growth analysis and remaining life prediction. Various tension softening models such as linear, bi-linear, tri-linear, exponential and power curve have been presented with appropriate expressions. Size effect has been accounted for by modifying the Paris law, leading to a size adjusted Paris law, which gives crack length increment per cycle as a power function of the amplitude of a size adjusted stress intensity factor (SIF). Details of tension softening effects and size effect in the computation of SIF and remaining life prediction have been presented. Numerical studies have been conducted on three point bending concrete beams under constant amplitude loading. The predicted remaining life values with the combination of tension softening & size effects are in close agreement with the corresponding experimental values available in the literature for all the tension softening models.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1996년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.1353-1355
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• 1996

This paper presents classification of high impedance fault pattern using linear prediction coefficients. A feature of neutral phase current is extracted by the linear predictive coding. This feature is classified into faults by a multilayer perceptron neural network. Neural network successfully classifies test data into three faults and one normal state.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.601-607
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• 2007

In order to maintain constant residual chlorine in sedimentation basin, It is necessary to develop real time prediction model of residual chlorine considering water treatment plant data such as water qualities, weather, and plant operation conditions. Based on the operation data acquired from K water treatment plant, prediction models of residual chlorine in sediment basin were accomplished. The input parameters applied in the models were water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity, flow rate, alkalinity and pre-chlorination dosage. The multiple regression models were established with linear and non-linear model with 5,448 data set. The corelation coefficient (R) for the linear and non-linear model were 0.39 and 0.374, respectively. It shows low correlation coefficient, that is, these multiple regression models can not represent the residual chlorine with the input parameters which varies independently with time changes related to weather condition. Artificial neural network models are applied with three different conditions. Input parameters are consisted of water quality data observed in water treatment process based on the structure of auto-regressive model type, considering a time lag. The artificial neural network models have better ability to predict residual chlorine at sediment basin than conventional linear and nonlinear multi-regression models. The determination coefficients of each model in verification process were shown as 0.742, 0.754, and 0.869, respectively. Consequently, comparing the results of each model, neural network can simulate the residual chlorine in sedimentation basin better than mathematical regression models in terms of prediction performance. This results are expected to contribute into automation control of water treatment processes.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제58권5호
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Oil and steel prices, which are major pricescosts in the shipbuilding industry, were predicted. Firstly, the error of the moving average line (N=3-5) was examined, and in all three error analyses, the moving average line (N=3) was small. Secondly, in the linear prediction of data through existing theory, oil prices rise slightly, and steel prices rise sharply, but in reality, linear prediction using existing data was not satisfactory. Thirdly, we identified the limitations of linear prediction methods and confirmed that oil and steel price prediction was somewhat similar to actual moving average line prediction methods. Due to the high volatility of major price flows, large errors were inevitable in the forecast section. Through the time series analysis method at the end of this paper, we were able to achieve not bad results in all analysis items relative to artificial intelligence (Prophet). Predictive data through predictive analysis using eight predictive models are expected to serve as a good research foundation for developing unique tools or establishing evaluation systems in the future. This study compares the basic settings of artificial intelligence programs with the results of core price prediction in the shipbuilding industry through time series prediction theory, and further studies the various hyper-parameters and event effects of Prophet in the future, leaving room for improvement of predictability.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제26권7호
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• pp.963-971
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• 2022

상수도 관망은 국가 수도 시설의 주요한 구성 요소이지만 대부분이 지중에 매립되어 있어 배관의 노후화 정도 및 누수를 파악하기 어려우므로 유지관리 하기가 매우 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 관망에 설치된 다양한 센서 조합을 가정하여, 데이터 조합에 따른 관로 누수 판별 가능성을 검토하기 위하여 선형회귀분석, 뉴로퍼지 등의 인공지능 알고리즘을 통한 유량과 압력 예측을 실시하여 최적 알고리즘을 도출하였다. 공급압력 예측을 통한 누수판별의 경우 뉴로퍼지 알고리즘이 선형회귀분석에 비하여 우수하였다. 누수유량 예측에서는 뉴로퍼지를 이용한 유량예측이 우선 고려되어야 한다. 다만, 유량을 모사하기 힘든 경우에는 선형 알고리즘을 이용한 공급압력 예측이 이루어져야 할 것으로 사료 된다.

• 전자공학회논문지S
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• 제35S권10호
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• pp.166-174
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• 1998

신경망은 분산된 비선형 처리구조와 학습능력 때문에 높은 차수의 비선형 동특성 구현능력을 갖고 있으므로 비정적 신호에 대한 적응예측을 수행할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 두 가지 방법 (비선형 모듈구조와 비선형과 선형모듈이 직렬로 연결된 예측구조)으로 비정적 신호의 비선형 예측을 다루고 있다. 완전 궤환된 리커런트 신경망과 기존의 TDL(tapped-delay-line) 필터가 비선형과 선형모듈로 각각 사용되었다. 제안된 예측기의 동특성은 카오스 시계열과 음성신호에 대해 시험하였으며, 예측성능의 상대적인 비교를 위해 기존의 ARMA(autoregressive moving average) 구조의 선형 예측모델과 비교하였다. 실험결과에 의하면 신경망을 이용한 적응 예측기는 선형 예측기보다 예측성능이 훨씬 우수하였으며, 특히 직렬구조의 예측기는 신호가 크게 변화하는 시계열의 예측에 효과적으로 사용할 수 있음을 확인하였다.