• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear dynamic systems

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Dynamic Nonlinear Prediction Model of Univariate Hydrologic Time Series Using the Support Vector Machine and State-Space Model (Support Vector Machine과 상태공간모형을 이용한 단변량 수문 시계열의 동역학적 비선형 예측모형)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3B
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2006
  • The reconstruction of low dimension nonlinear behavior from the hydrologic time series has been an active area of research in the last decade. In this study, we present the applications of a powerful state space reconstruction methodology using the method of Support Vector Machines (SVM) to the Great Salt Lake (GSL) volume. SVMs are machine learning systems that use a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space. SVMs are optimized by minimizing a bound on a generalized error (risk) measure, rather than just the mean square error over a training set. The utility of this SVM regression approach is demonstrated through applications to the short term forecasts of the biweekly GSL volume. The SVM based reconstruction is used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from the period of two weeks to several months. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics is tested using split sample sensitivity analyses, with a particular interest in forecasting extreme states. Unlike previously reported methodologies, SVMs are able to extract the dynamics using only a few past observed data points (Support Vectors, SV) out of the training examples. Considering statistical measures, the prediction model based on SVM demonstrated encouraging and promising results in a short-term prediction. Thus, the SVM method presented in this study suggests a competitive methodology for the forecast of hydrologic time series.

Real-Time 3D Ultrasound Imaging Method Using a Cross Array Based on Synthetic Aperture Focusing: I. Spherical Wave Transmission Approach (합성구경 기반의 교차어레이를 이용한 실시간 3차원 초음파 영상화 기법 : I. 구형파 송신 방법)

  • 김강식;송태경
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2004
  • 3D imaging systems using 2D phased arrays have a large number of active channels, compelling to use a very expensive and bulky beamforming hardware, and suffer from low volume rate because, in principle, at least one ultrasound transmit-receive event is necessary to construct each scanline. A high speed 3D imaging method using a cross array proposed previously to solve the above limitations can implement fast scanning and dynamic focusing in the lateral direction but suffer from low resolution except at the fixed transmit focusing along the elevational direction. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new real-time volumetric imaging method using a cross array based on the synthetic aperture technique. In the proposed method, ultrasound wave is transmitted successively using each elements of an 1D transmit array transducer, one at a time, which is placed along the elevational direction and for each firing, the returning pulse echoes are received using all elements of an 1D receive array transducer placed along the lateral direction. On receive, by employing the conventional dynamic focusing and synthetic aperture method along lateral and elevational directions, respectively, ultrasound waves can be focused effectively at all imaging points. In addition, in the proposed method, a volume of interest consisting of any required number of slice images, can be constructed with the same number of transmit-receive steps as the total number of transmit array elements. Computer simulation results show that the proposed method can provide the same and greatly improved resolutions in the lateral and elevational directions, respectively, compared with the 3D imaging method using a cross array based on the conventional fixed focusing. In the accompanying paper, we will also propose a new real-time 3D imaging method using a cross array for improving transmit power and elevational spatial resolution, which uses linear wave fronts on transmit.

The Effects of the Computer Aided Innovation Capabilities on the R&D Capabilities: Focusing on the SMEs of Korea (Computer Aided Innovation 역량이 연구개발역량에 미치는 효과: 국내 중소기업을 대상으로)

  • Shim, Jae Eok;Byeon, Moo Jang;Moon, Hyo Gon;Oh, Jay In
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.25-53
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzes the effect of Computer Aided Innovation (CAI) to improve R&D Capabilities empirically. Survey was distributed by e-mail and Google Docs, targeting CTO of 235 SMEs. 142 surveys were returned back (rate of return 60.4%) from companies. Survey results from 119 companies (83.8%) which are effective samples except no-response, insincere response, estimated value, etc. were used for statistics analysis. Companies with less than 50billion KRW sales of entire researched companies occupy 76.5% in terms of sample traits. Companies with less than 300 employees occupy 83.2%. In terms of the type of company business Partners (called 'partners with big companies' hereunder) who work with big companies for business occupy 68.1%. SMEs based on their own business (called 'independent small companies') appear to occupy 31.9%. The present status of holding IT system according to traits of company business was classified into partners with big companies versus independent SMEs. The present status of ERP is 18.5% to 34.5%. QMS is 11.8% to 9.2%. And PLM (Product Life-cycle Management) is 6.7% to 2.5%. The holding of 3D CAD is 47.1% to 21%. IT system-holding and its application of independent SMEs seemed very vulnerable, compared with partner companies of big companies. This study is comprised of IT infra and IT Utilization as CAI capacity factors which are independent variables. factors of R&D capabilities which are independent variables are organization capability, process capability, HR capability, technology-accumulating capability, and internal/external collaboration capability. The highest average value of variables was 4.24 in organization capability 2. The lowest average value was 3.01 in IT infra which makes users access to data and information in other areas and use them with ease when required during new product development. It seems that the inferior environment of IT infra of general SMEs is reflected in CAI itself. In order to review the validity used to measure variables, Factors have been analyzed. 7 factors which have over 1.0 pure value of their dependent and independent variables were extracted. These factors appear to explain 71.167% in total of total variances. From the result of factor analysis about measurable variables in this study, reliability of each item was checked by Cronbach's Alpha coefficient. All measurable factors at least over 0.611 seemed to acquire reliability. Next, correlation has been done to explain certain phenomenon by correlation analysis between variables. As R&D capabilities factors which are arranged as dependent variables, organization capability, process capability, HR capability, technology-accumulating capability, and internal/external collaboration capability turned out that they acquire significant correlation at 99% reliability level in all variables of IT infra and IT Utilization which are independent variables. In addition, correlation coefficient between each factor is less than 0.8, which proves that the validity of this study judgement has been acquired. The pair with the highest coefficient had 0.628 for IT utilization and technology-accumulating capability. Regression model which can estimate independent variables was used in this study under the hypothesis that there is linear relation between independent variables and dependent variables so as to identify CAI capability's impact factors on R&D. The total explanations of IT infra among CAI capability for independent variables such as organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability are 10.3%, 7%, 11.9%, 30.9%, and 10.5% respectively. IT Utilization exposes comprehensively low explanatory capability with 12.4%, 5.9%, 11.1%, 38.9%, and 13.4% for organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability respectively. However, both factors of independent variables expose very high explanatory capability relatively for technology-accumulating capability among independent variable. Regression formula which is comprised of independent variables and dependent variables are all significant (P<0.005). The suitability of regression model seems high. When the results of test for dependent variables and independent variables are estimated, the hypothesis of 10 different factors appeared all significant in regression analysis model coefficient (P<0.01) which is estimated to affect in the hypothesis. As a result of liner regression analysis between two independent variables drawn by influence factor analysis for R&D capability and R&D capability. IT infra and IT Utilization which are CAI capability factors has positive correlation to organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, technology-accumulating capability, and collaboration capability with inside and outside which are dependent variables, R&D capability factors. It was identified as a significant factor which affects R&D capability. However, considering adjustable variables, a big gap is found, compared to entire company. First of all, in case of partner companies with big companies, in IT infra as CAI capability, organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, and technology capability out of R&D capacities seems to have positive correlation. However, collaboration capability appeared insignificance. IT utilization which is a CAI capability factor seemed to have positive relation to organization capability, process capability, human resources capability, and internal/external collaboration capability just as those of entire companies. Next, by analyzing independent types of SMEs as an adjustable variable, very different results were found from those of entire companies or partner companies with big companies. First of all, all factors in IT infra except technology-accumulating capability were rejected. IT utilization was rejected except technology-accumulating capability and collaboration capability. Comprehending the above adjustable variables, the following results were drawn in this study. First, in case of big companies or partner companies with big companies, IT infra and IT utilization affect improving R&D Capabilities positively. It was because most of big companies encourage innovation by using IT utilization and IT infra building over certain level to their partner companies. Second, in all companies, IT infra and IT utilization as CAI capability affect improving technology-accumulating capability positively at least as R&D capability factor. The most of factor explanation is low at around 10%. However, technology-accumulating capability is rather high around 25.6% to 38.4%. It was found that CAI capability contributes to technology-accumulating capability highly. Companies shouldn't consider IT infra and IT utilization as a simple product developing tool in R&D section. However, they have to consider to use them as a management innovating strategy tool which proceeds entire-company management innovation centered in new product development. Not only the improvement of technology-accumulating capability in department of R&D. Centered in new product development, it has to be used as original management innovative strategy which proceeds entire company management innovation. It suggests that it can be a method to improve technology-accumulating capability in R&D section and Dynamic capability to acquire sustainable competitive advantage.

Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

The Measurement of Sensitivity and Comparative Analysis of Simplified Quantitation Methods to Measure Dopamine Transporters Using [I-123]IPT Pharmacokinetic Computer Simulations ([I-123]IPT 약역학 컴퓨터시뮬레이션을 이용한 민감도 측정 및 간편화된 운반체 정량분석 방법들의 비교분석 연구)

  • Son, Hye-Kyung;Nha, Sang-Kyun;Lee, Hee-Kyung;Kim, Hee-Joung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 1997
  • Recently, [I-123]IPT SPECT has been used for early diagnosis of Parkinson's patients(PP) by imaging dopamine transporters. The dynamic time activity curves in basal ganglia(BG) and occipital cortex(OCC) without blood samples were obtained for 2 hours. These data were then used to measure dopamine transporters by operationally defined ratio methods of (BG-OCC)/OCC at 2 hrs, binding potential $R_v=k_3/k_4$ using graphic method or $R_A$= (ABBG-ABOCC)/ABOCC for 2 hrs, where ABBG represents accumulated binding activity in basal ganglia(${\int}^{120min}_0$ BG(t)dt) and ABOCC represents accumulated binding activity in occipital cortex(${\int}^{120min}_0$ OCC(t)dt). The purpose of this study was to examine the IPT pharmacokinetics and investigate the usefulness of simplified methods of (BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$ which are often assumed that these values reflect the true values of $k_3/k_4$. The rate constants $K_1,\;k_2\;k_3$ and $k_4$ to be used for simulations were derived using [I-123]IPT SPECT and aterialized blood data with a standard three compartmental model. The sensitivities and time activity curves in BG and OCC were computed by changing $K_l$ and $k_3$(only BG) for every 5min over 2 hours. The values (BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$ were then computed from the time activity curves and the linear regression analysis was used to measure the accuracies of these methods. The late constants $K_l,\;k_2\;k_3\;k_4$ at BG and OCC were $1.26{\pm}5.41%,\;0.044{\pm}19.58%,\;0.031{\pm}24.36%,\;0.008{\pm}22.78%$ and $1.36{\pm}4.76%,\;0.170{\pm}6.89%,\;0.007{\pm}23.89%,\;0.007{\pm}45.09%$, respectively. The Sensitivities for ((${\Delta}S/S$)/(${\Delta}k_3/k_3$)) and ((${\Delta}S/S$)/(${\Delta}K_l/K_l$)) at 30min and 120min were measured as (0.19, 0.50) and (0.61, 0,23), respectively. The correlation coefficients and slopes of ((BG-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$, and $R_v$) with $k_3/k_4$ were (0.98, 1.00, 0.99) and (1.76, 0.47, 1.25), respectively. These simulation results indicate that a late [I-123]IPT SPECT image may represent the distribution of the dopamine transporters. Good correlations were shown between (3G-OCC)/OCC, $R_A$ or $R_v$ and true $k_3/k_4$, although the slopes between them were not unity. Pharmacokinetic computer simulations may be a very useful technique in studying dopamine transporter systems.

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