• 제목/요약/키워드: Limit to Growth

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M-추정을 사용한 국방과학기술 수준조사 기술성장모형의 이상치 제거 (Elimination of Outlier from Technology Growth Curve using M-estimator for Defense Science and Technology Survey)

  • 김장헌
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 2020
  • Technology growth curve methodology is commonly used in technology forecasting. A technology growth curve represents the paths of product performance in relation to time or investment in R&D. It is a useful tool to compare the technological performances between Korea and advanced nations and to describe the inflection points, the limit of improvement of a technology and their technology innovation strategies, etc. However, the curve fitting to a set of survey data often leads to model mis-specification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect result since data through survey with experts frequently contain outlier in process of curve fitting due to the subjective response characteristics. This paper propose a method to eliminate of outlier from a technology growth curve using M-estimator. The experimental results prove the overall improvement in technology growth curves by several pilot tests using real-data in Defense Science and Technology Survey reports.

Growth Characteristics And Yield of Corn (Zea mays L.) for Grain by Early Sowing Date in the Central Region of South Korea

  • Young-Chul Yoo; Jeong-Ju Kim;Seuk-Ki Lee;Mi-Jin Chae;Myeong-Na Shin;A-Reum Han;Weon-Tai Jeon;Hwan-Hee Bae
    • 한국작물학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국작물학회 2022년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.84-84
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    • 2022
  • The limit of crop cultivation is moving northward due to the temperature rise by climate change. There is a problem with crop growth if early sowing is performed at a time when the temperature is low. It is difficult to secure crop productivity and cultivation stability due to the low temperature and short cultivation period. Therefore, this study was conducted to analyze the change in growth characteristics and yield of corn for grain when early sowing is performed in central region of South Korea. This experiment was conducted at experimental field of Suwon in 2021. Three varieties of corn for grain such as Kwangpyeongok, Sinhwangok, and Hwangdaok were sown at intervals of 5 days from 20 March to 15 April. The planting density at this time was sown with a row interval of 70 cm and a plant interval of 25 cm. Nitrogen, phosphoric acid, and potassium fertilizers were applied at 17.4 kg, 3.0 kg, and 6.9 kg per 10a, respectively. Phosphoric acid and potassium fertilizers were all applied before sowing and nitrogen fertilizer was applied 50% before sowing and 50% in the fifth leaf period. The corn growth characteristics and yield components were investigated. The seedling establishment rate by sowing date was in the range of 68.5~88.5%, and it showed a difference depending on the variety. The range of days from sowing to tassel and silk emergence by sowing date was 79.9~98.4 and 81.0~98.9 days, respectively. As the sowing date was delayed, the days from sowing to tassel and silk emergence decreased. The growth characteristics and yield of corn by sowing date are as follows. Plant height was the highest at 241.3 cm at the sowing on 25 March, and Stalk diameter was the thickest at 25.6 mm at the sowing on 31 March. The fresh weight per plant was the highest at 728 g at the sowing on 25 March, and the dry weight per plant was the highest at 185 g at the sowing on 31 March. Corn growth characteristics did not show a certain trend depending on the sowing date, and corn growth was more vigorous at the sowing on March 25 and 31 than the others. In the case of ear weight, it was the heaviest with 344 g at the sowing on 25 March, and filled ear length ratio showed a tendency to decrease as the sowing time was delayed. The weight of 100 grains and grain yield per 10a of maize were the highest at 36.0g and 878.7kg/10a, respectively at the sowing on 25 March. Although the growth and yield of corn for grain were good during early sowing in the central region of South Korea, it is necessary to investigate the limit temperature for early sowing of corn by examining the annual variation according to weather conditions.

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Application of Bootstrap Method to Primary Model of Microbial Food Quality Change

  • Lee, Dong-Sun;Park, Jin-Pyo
    • Food Science and Biotechnology
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.1352-1356
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    • 2008
  • Bootstrap method, a computer-intensive statistical technique to estimate the distribution of a statistic was applied to deal with uncertainty and variability of the experimental data in stochastic prediction modeling of microbial growth on a chill-stored food. Three different bootstrapping methods for the curve-fitting to the microbial count data were compared in determining the parameters of Baranyi and Roberts growth model: nonlinear regression to static version function with resampling residuals onto all the experimental microbial count data; static version regression onto mean counts at sampling times; dynamic version fitting of differential equations onto the bootstrapped mean counts. All the methods outputted almost same mean values of the parameters with difference in their distribution. Parameter search according to the dynamic form of differential equations resulted in the largest distribution of the model parameters but produced the confidence interval of the predicted microbial count close to those of nonlinear regression of static equation.

감육배관의 굽힘하중에 의한 손상모드와 파괴거동 평가 (Failure Mode and Fracture Behavior Evaluation of Pipes with Local Wall Thinning Subjected to Bending Load)

  • 안석환;남기우;김선진;김진환;김현수;도재윤
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2003
  • Fracture behaviors of pipes with local wall thinning are very important for the integrity of nuclear Power Plant. In Pipes of energy Plants, sometimes, the local wall thinning may result from severe erosion-corrosion (E/C) damage. However, the effects of local wall thinning on strength and fracture behaviors of piping system were not well studied. In this paper, the monotonic bending tests were performed of full-scale carbon steel pipes with local wall thinning. A monotonic bending load was applied to straight pipe specimens by four-point loading at ambient temperature without internal pressure. From the tests, fracture behaviors and fracture strength of locally thinned pipe were manifested systematically. The observed failure modes were divided into four types; ovalization. crack initiation/growth after ovalization, local buckling and crack initiation/growth after local buckling. Also, the strength and the allowable limit of piping system with local wall thinning were evaluated.

Analysis of quasi-brittle materials using two-dimensional polygon particle assemblies

  • Lee, Jong Seok;Rhie, Yoon Bock;Kim, Ick Hyun
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.713-730
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    • 2003
  • This paper contains the results of the study on the development of fracture and crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials, such as concrete or rocks, using the Discrete Element Method (DEM). A new discrete element numerical model is proposed as the basis for analyzing the inelastic evolution and growth of cracks up to the point of gross material failure. The model is expected to predict the fracture behavior for the quasi-brittle material structure using the elementary aggregate level, the interaction between aggregate materials, and bond cementation. The algorithms generate normal and shear forces between two interfacing blocks and contains two kinds of contact logic, one for connected blocks and the other one for blocks that are not directly connected. The Mohr-Coulomb theory has been used for the fracture limit. In this algorithm the particles are moving based on the connected block logic until the forces increase up to the fracture limit. After passing the limit, the particles are governed by the discrete block logic. In setting up a discrete polygon element model, two dimensional polygons are used to investigate the response of an assembly of different shapes, sizes, and orientations with blocks subjected to simple applied loads. Several examples involving assemblies of particles are presented to show the behavior of the fracture and the failure process.

크라이신 7-O-크로토네이트의 물성 및 육모효과 (Properties and Hair-growth Effect of Chrysin 7-O-crotonate)

  • 신준수;김연희;정재훈;김양배;김박광
    • 약학회지
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    • 제43권3호
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    • pp.316-319
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    • 1999
  • Chrysin 7-Ο-crotonate was synthesized by condensing crotonic acid with chrysin in organic solvent, tetrahydrofuran (THF) using dicyclohexylcarbodiimide (DCC) and 4-dimethylaminopyridine (DMAP). Its structure was indentified by NMR, MS, UV, IR etc. We also investigated the physico-chemical properties and set up the quantitative anytical method of this compound. The correlation coefficient of calibration curve measured at the isobestic point (340 nm) on this compound was approximately 0.9994 by absorption spetrophtometry. Detection limit was 1.6ng at S/N=3 by using a RP column by HPLC. The hair growth effect fo chrysin 7-Ο-crotonate on the hair of black mouse (C57BL/6), was carried out using paste method. When its ethanol solution was administered to this black mouse by route of skin, this compound promoted the growth of hair.

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Assessment of Subsoil Compaction by Soil Texture on Field Scale

  • Cho, Hee-Rae;Jung, Kang-Ho;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Han, Kyung-Hwa
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.628-633
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    • 2015
  • It is necessary to assess soil physical properties and crop growth treated by compaction to establish the soil management standard. This study evaluated the bulk density, strength and crop growth after subsoil compaction for sandy loam and loam on the field in Suwon, Korea. The treatments were compaction and deep tillage. Sandy loam and loam were classified to coarse soil and fine soil, respectively, depending on clay contents. In coarse soil, bulk density of compacted plot was 8~17% greater than control and deep tilled plot. The root growth was worse in compacted plot compared with control. In fine soil, plow pan was not observed in deep tilled plot with 5~19% smaller bulk density than compacted plot and control. Deep tillage improved the crop growth. The soil physical properties by compaction were dependent on clay content and crop growth limit depended on the traffic driving.

Relationships between Urbanization, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, and CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

  • BASHIR, Abdul;SUSETYO, Didik;SUHEL, Suhel;AZWARDI, Azwardi
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.79-90
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to investigate the relationship between urbanization, economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in Indonesia. The data used in the study are time-series data for the period 1985-2017; the data utilized are sourced from World Development Indicators obtained on the World Bank database. The method uses a quantitative approach that applies the vector error correction model based on the Granger causality test. The empirical results reveal that, in the short run, there is evidence that urbanization and energy consumption can causes CO2 emissions, and they also prove that urbanization can cause energy consumption. Also, other findings prove the existence of long-run relationships flowing from energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions toward urbanization, as well as the existence of the relationship flowing from urbanization, economic growth, and CO2 emissions towards energy consumption. The results of testing the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions reveal that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is proven in Indonesia. Thus, policies are needed to limit the impact of urbanization through high awareness-raising to maintain environmental quality and greater use of energy. Also, energy conservation policies are needed in all sectors, especially the electricity, industry, and transportation sectors.

자동차용 알루미늄 5185-폴리프로필렌 샌드위치 판재의 성형성 (Formability of Aluminum 5182-Polypropylene Sandwich Panel for Automotive Application)

  • 김기주;정효태;손일선;김철웅;김중배
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.175-181
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study was to develop formability evaluation techniques in order to apply aluminum sandwich panel for automotive body parts. For this purpose, newly adopting formability evaluation (using limit dome height and plane strain test) was carried out in order to secure the fundamental data for the measurement of sheet metal forming and the establishment of optimum forming conditions of the aluminum sandwich panel. The results showed that there were good agreements between the old formability evaluation method and the new method which was more simplified than that of old one. From the results of these formability evaluation, the formability of sandwich panel was higher than that of aluminum alloy sheet alone which was the skin component for the sandwich panel. Also, it was found that sandwich panel could reduce the weight and could have the same flexural rigidity simultaneously when it was compared to the automotive steel sheet.

Structural Change as a Source of Growth: An Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

  • Han, Hongyul
    • 분석과 대안
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.195-222
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    • 2022
  • From the economic development perspective, economic growth should accompany structural improvement in order to meet complex demands from a society. In the context of development economics, economic growth is critically dependent on successful structural advancement. The issue of structural change is also important for advanced economies as the landscape of modern industry is changing fast. Many advanced countries of slow growth are experiencing dawdling changes in industry structure. However, there is no definitive answer to the question of whether there is a causal relationship between structural change and growth. This study empirically assesses the relationship between structural change or 'speed' thereof and economic growth in developed countries of OECD. Rather than looking into the causes of structural changes, this study simply measures structural changes in OECD economies and examines if structural change is really contributing to growth. The reason why this study focuses on advanced countries of OECD is rather obvious; technological innovation and emergence of new industries pressure these countries to restructure their economies to address these new challenges though they are at stages well beyond conventional industrialization. And structural rigidity can always limit growth even in advanced countries. The main results of this study can be summarized as a positive relationship between 'change and growth'. 'Change' in this study refers to changes in the industrial structure based on value-added and was analyzed to have a close positive relationship with economic growth. This result is consistent with arguments of early development economists emphasizing structural upgrade as an indispensable process for growth and development. The result of this study potentially confirms that the main argument of development economics is valid also for advanced economies. One of our results suggests that business/professional services and social services should be main targets for restructuring for advanced economies. The rational may be that rapid convergence of manufacturing and services is a key for structural advancement in the era of new technologies. Obviously, as manufacturing technology and production are standardized, it is difficult to secure international competitiveness through traditional manufacturing alone and the role of R&D, design, logistics, and marketing is becoming more important.