• 제목/요약/키워드: Lifetime prediction model

검색결과 79건 처리시간 0.028초

Lifetime prediction of bearings in on-board starter generator

  • Zieja, Mariusz;Tomaszewska, Justyna;Woch, Marta;Michalski, Mariusz
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.289-302
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    • 2021
  • Ensuring flight safety for passengers as well as crew is the most important aspect of modern aviation, and in order to achieve this, it is necessary to be able to forecast the durability of individual components. The present contribution illustrates the results of a computational analysis to determine the possibility of analysing the prediction of bearing durability in on-board rotating equipment from the point of view of thermal fatigue.In this study, a method developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology was used for analysis, which allowed to determine the bearing durability from the flight altitude profile. Two aircraft have been chosen for analysis - a military M-28 and a civilian Embraer. As a result of the analysis were obtained: the bearing durability in on-board rotating devices, average operation time between failures, as well as failure rate. In conclusion, the practical applicability of this approach is demonstrated by the fact that even with a limited number of flight parameters, it is possible to estimate bearing durability and increase flight safety by regular inspections.

Genetic Parameters and Responses in Growth and Body Composition Traits of Pigs Measured under Group Housing and Ad libitum Feeding from Lines Selected for Growth Rate on a Fixed Ration

  • Nguyen, Nguyen Hong;McPhee, C.P.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제18권8호
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    • pp.1075-1079
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    • 2005
  • The main objective of this study is to examine genetic changes in growth rate and carcass composition traits in group housed, ad libitum fed pigs, from lines of Large White divergently selected over four years for high and low post-weaning daily gain on a fixed but restricted ration. Genetic parameters for production and carcass traits were also estimated by using average information-restricted maximum likelihood applied to a multivariate individual animal model. All analyses were carried out on 1,728 records of group housed ad libitum fed pigs, and include a full pedigree of 5,324 animals. Estimates of heritability (standard errors in parentheses) were 0.11 (0.04) for lifetime daily liveweight gain (LDG), 0.13 (0.04) for daily carcass weight gain (CDG) and 0.28 (0.06) for carcass backfat (CFT). Genetic correlations between LDG and CDG were highly positive and between LDG and CFT negative, suggesting that selection for lifetime daily gain under commercial conditions of group housing with ad libitum feeding would result in favourable improvement in carcass traits. CFT showed negative genetic correlations with CDG. Correlated genetic responses evaluated as estimated breeding values (EBVs) were obtained from a multivariate animal model-best linear unbiased prediction analysis. After four years of divergent selection for 6 week post-weaning growth rate on restricted feeding, pigs performance tested on ad libitum feeding in groups exhibited changes in EBVs of 6.77 and -9.93 (g/d) for LDG, 4.25 and -7.08 (g/d) for CDG, and -1.42 and 1.55 (mm) for CFT, in the high and low lines, respectively. It is concluded that selection for growth rate on restricted feeding would significantly improve genetic performance and carcass composition of their descendants when group housed and ad libitum fed as is a common commercial practice.

Development of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques based PD-Model for the Insulation Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis

  • Kim, Y.J.;Lim, J.S.;Park, D.H.;Cho, K.B.
    • E2M - 전기 전자와 첨단 소재
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    • 제11권11호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents an arificial neuro-fuzzy technique based prtial discharge (PD) pattern classifier to power system application. This may require a complicated analysis method employ -ing an experts system due to very complex progressing discharge form under exter-nal stress. After referring briefly to the developments of artificical neural network based PD measurements, the paper outlines how the introduction of new emerging technology has resulted in the design of a number of PD diagnostic systems for practical applicaton of residual lifetime prediction. The appropriate PD data base structure and selection of learning data size of PD pattern based on fractal dimentsional and 3-D PD-normalization, extraction of relevant characteristic fea-ture of PD recognition are discussed. Some practical aspects encountered with unknown stress in the neuro-fuzzy techniques based real time PD recognition are also addressed.

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장기 저장연료의 열안정성 및 연료접촉 고무오링의 수명예측 연구 (A Study on the Thermal Stability of Long-Term Fuel Storage and Lifetime Estimation of Rubber O-ring in Contacted with Fuel)

  • 정근우;홍진숙;김영운;한정식;정병훈;권태수;서동욱;성민준;권영일
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2018
  • Thermal deterioration of fuel due to long-term storage influences engine performance and causes malfunctions. Fuel stability is usually evaluated via heat resistance and thermal stability during a brief heat shock at high temperature; storage stability in this scenario means that there is very little change in the quality of the fuel during long-term storage. In addition, rubber-based products such as oil seals, O-rings, and rubber hoses can influence the quality of the fuel. When these rubber products are in contact with fuel, they can swell, mechanically weaken, and occasionally crack, thus leaking low molar weight rubber and additives including plasticizer and antioxidant into the fuel to degrade its properties and shorten its useful lifetime. This study determines the thermal stabilities of three kinds of synthetic fuels by evaluating their low temperature kinematic viscosities, chemical composition changes via GC analyses, gross heat of combustion, and color changes. We evaluate the compression set of O-rings by immersing one NBR and two FKM rubber O-rings in the three synthetic fuel samples in airtight containers at variable storage temperatures for six months; from this, we estimate the lifetimes of the O-rings using the Power law model. There were very little changes in the chemical compositions and gross heat of combustion after six months of the experiment. The lifetimes are thus dependent on the materials of the rubber products, and in particular, the FKM O-ring was calculated to have a theoretical lifetime of 200 to 5,700 years. These results indicate that the synthetic fuels maintain their physical properties even after long-term storage at high temperatures, and the FKM O-ring is suitable for long-term sealing of these fuels.

Analysis of Real-Time Estimation Method Based on Hidden Markov Models for Battery System States of Health

  • Piao, Changhao;Li, Zuncheng;Lu, Sheng;Jin, Zhekui;Cho, Chongdu
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.217-226
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    • 2016
  • A new method is proposed based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) to estimate and analyze battery states of health. Battery system health states are defined according to the relationship between internal resistance and lifetime of cells. The source data (terminal voltages and currents) can be obtained from vehicular battery models. A characteristic value extraction method is proposed for HMM. A recognition framework and testing datasets are built to test the estimation rates of different states. Test results show that the estimation rates achieved based on this method are above 90% under single conditions. The method achieves the same results under hybrid conditions. We can also use the HMMs that correspond to hybrid conditions to estimate the states under a single condition. Therefore, this method can achieve the purpose of the study in estimating battery life states. Only voltage and current are used in this method, thereby establishing its simplicity compared with other methods. The batteries can also be tested online, and the method can be used for online prediction.

유한요소법을 이용한 파괴 역학적 방법의 신뢰성설계기술에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Design of Fracture Mechanics Method Using FEM)

  • 백승엽;이봉구
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.4398-4404
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    • 2015
  • 스테인리스 강판은 동적기계구조물을 제작하기 위한 구조용 재료로 널리 사용된다. 또한 이들을 일체화 시키는 방법으로 가스용접을 많이 사용하게 되는데 가스용접에는 다양한 종류에 의해 구조물을 일체화 시킨다. 따라서 부재와 부재를 연결하는 용접부에 대한 응력분포 및 피로강도평가는 구조물의 건전성 및 수명을 연구하는데 매우 중요한 요소가 된다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 피로시험에 의해서 얻어지는 ${\Delta}P-N_f$ 관계를 유한요소해석법에 의해서 최대주응력으로 ${\Delta}{\sigma}-N_f$ 관계로 나타내어 피로설계기준을 정하였고, 이 결과를 이용해서 확률론적 통계해석기법을 적용해서 가속식을 추정하여 임의의 목표수명을 예측할 수 있는 신뢰성설계기술기법을 제시하고자 하였다.

STS301L 가스용접 이음재의 가속수명예측 (I) - Fillet Type - (Accelerated Life Prediction for STS301L Gas Welded Joint (I) - Fillet Type -)

  • 백승엽
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제34권4호
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    • pp.467-474
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    • 2010
  • 용접이음부의 신뢰성 확보는 구조물의 건전성과 내구성에 직접적인 영향을 미치기 때문에 가스용접 이음재의 피로설계기준(fatigue design criterion)을 정하기 위해서는 피로시험을 수행하여 ${\Delta}P$-Nf 관계를 이용하는 것이 일반적이다. 그러나 피로데이터를 장시간 획득하는 과정에서 여러 가지 변동인자에 의해서 피로데이터가 영향을 받기 때문에 피로데이터의 신뢰도가 떨어진다. 또한, 이음재의 재질 및 접합형태가 달라질 때마다, 각각의 경우에 대해서 새로운 피로시험이 요구됨으로 많은 시간과 비용이 소모된다. 따라서 이러한 문제점들을 개선하고 신뢰성 있는 설계를 하기 위해서 필렛 가스용접 이음재를 적용, 반복피로시험을 통한 데이터를 통계적으로 분석하여, 다양한 가스용접 이음재의 피로수명을 예측함과 동시에 실제 피로시험데이터와 비교 분석하여 예측된 수명의 신뢰도(reliability)와 신뢰구간(confidence interval)을 추정함으로서 새로운 피로설계기준 방법을 제시하고자 하였다.

추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측 (Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process)

  • 이철응
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • 추계학적 확률과정의 하나인 감마 확률과정을 이용하여 구조물의 잔류유효수명을 확률론적으로 예측할 수 있는 수학적 모형을 수립하였다. 수립된 모형은 과거부터 현재 시점까지 관측된 피해자료와 관련된 표본의 불확실성과 장래 시간 진행에 따른 누적피해의 불확실성을 올바로 고려할 수 있다. 또한 최소자승법과 모멘트법을 함께 사용하여 경사제의 재령, 운용환경 그리고 피해이력을 고려할 수 있는 모수 추정법을 제시하였다. 먼저 현재 재령의 단일 피해 자료를 갖는 임의의 조건에서 모수에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하여, 잔류유효수명과 관련된 여러가지 거동 특성들을 분석하였다. 또한 잔류유효수명 예측모형을 경사제에 적용하였다. 경사제 피복재의 피해 이력에 대한 실험자료를 이용하여 감마 확률과정의 모수를 추정하였는데 실험자료와 매우 잘 일치하였다. 해석 결과에 의하면 현재 시점으로부터 상당히 오랜 시간이 경과하면 파괴한계를 초과할 확률이 일정한 값으로 수렴해야 하는 제약 조건을 잘 만족하였다. 한편 기대 잔류유효수명은 피해 이력의 거동 특성에 따라 각기 다르게 산정되었다. 특히 피해의 변동계수가 크면 추계학적으로 산정된 기대 잔류유효수명은 결정론적 회기모형의 해석 결과와 큰 차이를 보인다. 이는 해석과정에 포함된 불확실성의 영향으로 판단된다. 변동계수가 크면 파괴한계에 도달하는 시간의 분포가 넓게 퍼지기 때문이다. 따라서 본 연구에서 수립된 추계학적 잔류유효수명 예측모형은 현재 재령에서 경사제의 피해에 대한 확률적 평가를 수행할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 장래 시간의 진행에 따른 누적피해의 불확실성을 올바로 고려할 수 있다.

Instruction-Level Power Estimator for Sensor Networks

  • Joe, Hyun-Woo;Park, Jae-Bok;Lim, Chae-Deok;Woo, Duk-Kyun;Kim, Hyung-Shin
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2008
  • In sensor networks, analyzing power consumption before actual deployment is crucial for maximizing service lifetime. This paper proposes an instruction-level power estimator (IPEN) for sensor networks. IPEN is an accurate and fine grain power estimation tool, using an instruction-level simulator. It is independent of the operating system, so many different kinds of sensor node software can be simulated for estimation. We have developed the power model of a Micaz-compatible mote. The power consumption of the ATmega128L microcontroller is modeled with the base energy cost and the instruction overheads. The CC2420 communication component and other peripherals are modeled according to their operation states. The energy consumption estimation module profiles peripheral accesses and function calls while an application is running. IPEN has shown excellent power estimation accuracy, with less than 5% estimation error compared to real sensor network implementation. With IPEN's high precision instruction-level energy prediction, users can accurately estimate a sensor network's energy consumption and achieve fine-grained optimization of their software.

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지중 환경하에서의 철근콘크리트 구조물의 열화인자별 한계수명 평가 (Service-life Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Structures in Subsurface Environment)

  • 권기정;정해룡;박주완
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2016
  • This paper focuses on the estimation of durability and service-life of reinforced concrete structures in Wolsong Low- and intermediate-level wastes Disposal Center (WLDC) in Korea. There are six disposal silos located in the saturated environment. The silo concrete is degraded due to reactions with groundwater and chemical attacks, and finally it will lose its properties as a transport barrier. The infiltration of sulfate and magnesium, leaching of potassium hydroxide, and chlorine induced corrosion are the most significant factors for degradation of reinforced concrete structure in underground environment. From the result of evaluation of the degradation time for each factor, the degradation rate of the reinforced concrete due to sulfate and magnesium is $1.308{\times}10^{-3}cm/yr$, and it is estimated to take 48,000 years for full degradation while potassium hydroxide is leached in depth of less than 1.5 cm at 1,000 years after the initiation of degradation. In case of chlorine induced corrosion, it takes 1,648 years to initiate corrosion in the main reinforced bar and 2,288 years to reach the lifetime limit of the structural integrity, and thus it is evaluated as the most significant factor.