• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.56-62
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• 2005

The fatigue analysis and lifetime evaluation are very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability of the rubber components. Fatigue lifetime prediction methodology of the rubber component was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter from fatigue test. Finite element analysis of 3D dumbbell specimen and rubber component were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from material test. The Green-Lagrange strain at the critical location determined from the FEM was used for evaluating the fatigue damaged parameter of the natural rubber. Fatigue life of the rubber component are predicted by using the fatigue damage parameter at the critical location. Predicted fatigue lifes of the rubber component agreed fairly well the experimental fatigue lives.

• 동력기계공학회지
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• 제14권6호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2010

Engineering asset management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting time-to-failure and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In general reliability models, lifetime of component and system is estimated using failure time data. This paper deals with the reliability assessment of elevators using life of main components. Especially this work is concerned with the stochastic nature of life of elevator components. First, we investigate the Weibull statistical analysis of lifetime data for the components. The final goal is to establish the mathematical model for reliability assessment. This work provides more perspectives to future research in the fields of reliability and maintainability.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.87-100
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• 2008

The rubber fender is used to absorb the berthing energy that is produced when a ship is near a port, and it prevents collision between the ship and port. If the rubber fender becomes defective, the berthing energy cannot be absorbed when it is near the port, and damage can result from collisions due to the hardening process. In this research, when the rubber fender is heated, collisions can cause cracks and other damage. It is also confirmed from the research the lifetime distribution of the rubber fender. The researcher has predicted using different variables and elongation that a rubber fender has an 11year lifespan at $20^{\circ}C$.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.111-130
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• 1998

We propose an imperfect repair model which depends on external effects quantified by covariates. The model is based on the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model wherefrom the probability of perfect repair is represented by a function of covariates. We are motivated by deficiency of the BP model whose stationarity prevents us from predicting dynamically the time to next failure according to external condition. Five types of function for the probability of perfect repair are proposed. This article also presents a procedure for estimating the parameter of the function for the probability of perfect repair, as well as the inherent lifetime distribution of the system, based on consecutive inter-failure times and the covariates. The estimation procedure is based on the expectation-maximization principle which is suitable to incomplete data problems. focusing on the maximization step, we derive some theorems which guarantee the existence of the solution. A Monte Carlo study is also performed to illustrate the prediction power of the model as well as to show reasonable properties of the estimates. The model reduces significantly the mean square error of the in-sample prediction. so it can be utilized in real fields for evaluating and maintaining repairable systems.

• 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.17-22
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• 2016

The activation energy of a material is an important factor that significantly affects the lifetime and can be used to develop a degradation model. In this study, a thermal analysis was carried out to evaluate and collect quantitative data on the degradation of insulation materials like EPR and CSP used for nuclear power plant cables. The activation energy was determined from the relationship between log ${\beta}$ and 1/T based on the Flynn.Wall.Ozawa method, by a TGA test. The activation energy was also derived from the relationship between ln(t) and 1/T based on isothermal analysis, by an OIT test. The activation energy of EPR derived from thermal analysis was used to calculate the accelerated aging time corresponding to the number of years of use, employing the Arrhenius equation, and determine the elongation corresponding to the accelerated aging time.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.498-510
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• 2022

Cloud-aerosol interactions are one of the paramount but least understood forcing factors in climate systems. Generally, an increase in the concentration of aerosols increases the concentration of cloud droplet numbers, implying that clouds tend to persist for longer than usual, suppressing precipitation in the warm boundary layer. The cloud lifetime effect has been the center of discussion in the scientific community, partly because of the lack of cloud life cycle observations and partly because of cloud problems. In this study, the precipitation susceptibility (S_o) matrix was employed to estimate the aerosols' effect on precipitation, while the non-aerosol effect is minimized. The S_o was calculated for the typical coupled, well-mixed maritime stratocumulus decks and giant cloud condensation nucleus (GCCN) seeded clouds. The GCCN-artificially introduced to the marine stratocumulus cloud decks-is shown to initiate precipitation and reduces S_o to approximately zero, demonstrating the cloud lifetime hypothesis. The results suggest that the response of precipitation to changes in GCCN must be considered for accurate prediction of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction by model studies

• Tribology and Lubricants
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• 제35권4호
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• pp.222-228
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• 2019

As rubber products such as O-rings, which are also known as packings or toric joints, come in regular, long term contact with liquid fuel, they can eventually swell, become mechanically weakened, and occasionally crack; this diminishes both their usefulness and intrinsic lifetime and could cause leaks during the steady-state flow condition of the fuel. In this study, we evaluate the lifetime of such products through compression set tests of FKM, a family of fluorocarbon elastomer materials defined by the ASTM international standard D141; these materials have great compression, sunlight, and ozone resistance as well as a low gas absorption rate. In this process, O-rings are immersed in the liquid fuel of airtight containers that can be expressed as a compression set, and the liquid fuel leakage in a flow rig tester at variable temperatures over 12 months is investigated. Using the Power Law model, our study determined a theoretical O-ring lifetime of 2,647 years, i.e. a semi-permanent lifespan, by confirming the absence of liquid fuel leakage around the O-ring assembled fittings. These results indicate that the FKM O-rings are significantly compatible for fuel tests to evaluate long-term sealing conditions.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
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• pp.188-193
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• 2000

A more accurate life prediction for gas turbine blade takes into account the material behavior under the complex thermo-mechanical fatigue(TMF) cycles normally encountered in turbine operation. An experimental program has been carried out to address the thermo-mechanical fatigue life of the IN738LC nickel-base superalloy. In the first phase of the study, out-of-phase and in-phase TMF experiments have been performed on uncoated and coated materials. In the temperature range investigated. the deposition of NiCrAlY air plasma sprayed coating did not affect the fatigue resistance. In the second phase of the study, a physically-base life prediction model that takes into account of the contribution of different damage mechanisms has been applied. This model was able to reflect the temperature and strain rate dependences of isothermal cycling fatigue lives, and the strain-temperature history effect on the thermo-mechanical fatigue lives.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.187-190
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• 2003

Since the early 1980s, the concept of relationship management in marketing area has gained its importance. Acquiring and retaining the most profitable customers are serious concerns of a company to perform more targeted marketing campaigns. For effective CRM (Customer Relationship Management), it is important to gather information on customer value. Many researches have been performed to calculate customer value based on CLV (Customer Lifetime Value). It, however, has some limitations. It is difficult to consider the churn of customers, because the previous prediction models have focused mainly on expected future cash flow derived from customers'past profit contribution. In this paper we suggest a CLV model considering past profit contribution, potential benefit, and churn probability of a customer. We also cover a framework for analyzing customer value and segmenting customers based on their value. Customer value is classified into three categories: current value, potential value and customer loyalty. Customers are segmented according to the three categories of customer value. A case study on calculating customer value of a wireless communication company will be illustrated.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제50권1호
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• pp.107-115
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• 2018

To ensure the structural integrity of nuclear power plants, it is essential to predict the lifetime of Alloy 182 weld, which is used for welding in nuclear reactors. The lifetime of Alloy 182 weld is directly related to the crack initiation time. Owing to the large time scatter in most crack initiation tests, a probabilistic model, such as the Weibull distribution, has mainly been adopted for prediction. However, since statistically more advanced methods than current typical methods may be applied, we suggest a statistical procedure for parameter estimation of the crack initiation time of Alloy 182 weld, considering right-censored data and the covariate effect. Furthermore, we suggest a procedure for uncertainty evaluation of the estimators based on the bootstrap method. The suggested statistical procedure can be applied not only to Alloy 182 weld but also to any material degradation data set including right-censored data with covariate effect.