• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life time estimation

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Studies on the Relationship between Number of Repeat and Duration of Estrous Behavior in Hanwoo and Holstein Cattle (한우와 젖소의 발정 행동 반복수와 지속 시간에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Jun-Kyu;Park, Seong-Jai;Baek, Kwang-Soo;Choi, You-Lim;Lee, Myeung-Sik;Kim, Sang-Bum;Kim, Hyeon-Shup;Shin, Seung-Oh;Park, Choon-Keun;Park, Soo-Bong
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.141-145
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between behavioral signs and duration of estrous in Hanwoo and Holstein cattle for the prediction of optical insemination. Fifty two of 58 and 71 of 89 in Hanwoo and Holstein cows or heifers showed estrous exhibition within 72 h after 2 days following $PGF_{2}\alpha$ administration, respectively. The number of mounting and standing heat were 54.2 and 57.6, 59.4 and 53.5, 42.0 and 30.8 and 16.2 and 10.7 times in Hanwoo cows, Hanwoo heifers, Holstein cows and Holstein heifers, respectively. Duration of mounting were no significantly difference for Hanwoo cows ($21.2\pm11.3$), Hanwoo heifers ($19.9\pm11.4$), Holstein cows ($8.7\pm4.4$) and Holstein heifers ($16.9\pm8.0$). Duration of standing heat were significantly (p<0.05) shorter for Holstein cows ($5.4\pm3.4$) than for Hanwoo cows ($17.1\pm9.6$), Hanwoo heifers ($16.5\pm6.3$) and Holstein heifers ($15.0\pm7.2$). Time until mounting after injection of $PGF_{2}\alpha$ were significantly (p<0.05) longer for Holstein cows ($56.3\pm11.45$) than for Hanwoo cows ($42.71\pm10.44$), Hanwoo heifers ($36.6\pm8.21$) and Holstein heifers ($40.70\pm6.15$). Time until standing heat after injection of $PGF_{2}\alpha$ were significantly (p<0.05) longer for Holstein cows ($61.6\pm8.92$) than for Hanwoo cows ($46.2\pm11.49$), Hanwoo heifers ($42.7\pm6.06$) and Holstein heifers ($44.1\pm6.72$). In the results of this study, duration of standing heat was the shortest in Holstein cows ($5.4\pm3.4$). The estimation of estrous with Holstein cows has more difficulty because to significantly shorter duration of standing heat than for Hanwoo cows, Hanwoo heifers and Holstein heifers. The standing heat can be a good predictor for time of ovulation but it is concluded that mounting behavior could be the best predictor for time of ovulation.

Prediction of patent lifespan and analysis of influencing factors using machine learning (기계학습을 활용한 특허수명 예측 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Kim, Yongwoo;Kim, Min Gu;Kim, Young-Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.147-170
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    • 2022
  • Although the number of patent which is one of the core outputs of technological innovation continues to increase, the number of low-value patents also hugely increased. Therefore, efficient evaluation of patents has become important. Estimation of patent lifespan which represents private value of a patent, has been studied for a long time, but in most cases it relied on a linear model. Even if machine learning methods were used, interpretation or explanation of the relationship between explanatory variables and patent lifespan was insufficient. In this study, patent lifespan (number of renewals) is predicted based on the idea that patent lifespan represents the value of the patent. For the research, 4,033,414 patents applied between 1996 and 2017 and finally granted were collected from USPTO (US Patent and Trademark Office). To predict the patent lifespan, we use variables that can reflect the characteristics of the patent, the patent owner's characteristics, and the inventor's characteristics. We build four different models (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Feed Forward Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Models) and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold Cross Validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated, and the relative importance of predictors is also presented. In addition, based on the Gradient Boosting Model which have excellent performance, Accumulated Local Effects Plot is presented to visualize the relationship between predictors and patent lifespan. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the evaluation reason of individual patents, and discuss applicability to the patent evaluation system. This study has academic significance in that it cumulatively contributes to the existing patent life estimation research and supplements the limitations of existing patent life estimation studies based on linearity. It is academically meaningful that this study contributes cumulatively to the existing studies which estimate patent lifespan, and that it supplements the limitations of linear models. Also, it is practically meaningful to suggest a method for deriving the evaluation basis for individual patent value and examine the applicability to patent evaluation systems.

A Software Reliability Cost Model Based on the Shape Parameter of Lomax Distribution (Lomax 분포의 형상모수에 근거한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 비용모형에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this study, reliability software cost model considering shape parameter based on life distribution from the process of software product testing was studied. The cost comparison problem of the Lomax distribution reliability growth model that is widely used in the field of reliability presented. The software failure model was used the infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted. For analysis of software cost model considering shape parameter. In the process of change and large software fix this situation can scarcely avoid the occurrence of defects is reality. The conditions that meet the reliability requirements and to minimize the total cost of the optimal release time. Studies comparing emissions when analyzing the problem to help kurtosis So why Kappa efficient distribution, exponential distribution, etc. updated in terms of the case is considered as also worthwhile. In this research, software developers to identify software development cost some extent be able to help is considered.

A Study on Safety Estimation of Railroad Wheel (컨테이너 철도차륜의 안전성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Woo;Kim, Jin-Nam;Cho, Seok-Swoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1178-1185
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    • 2010
  • Recently, high speed of container freight cars is causing fatigue damage of wheel. Sudden failure accidents cause a lot of physical and human damages. Therefore, damage analysis for wheel prevents failure accident of container freight car. Wheel receives mechanical and thermal loads at the same time while rolling stocks are run. The mechanical loads applied to wheel are classified by the horizontal load from contact of wheel and rail in curve line section and by the vertical force from rolling stocks weight. Also, braking and deceleration of rolling stocks cause repeated thermal load by wheel tread braking. Specially, braking of rolling stocks is frictional braking method that brake shoe is contacted in wheel tread by high breaking pressure. Frictional heat energy occurs on the contact surface between wheel tread and brake shoe. This braking converts kinetic energy of rolling stocks into heat energy by friction. This raises temperature rapidly and generates thermal loads in wheel and brake shoe. There mechanical and thermal loads generate crack and residual stress in wheel. Wetenkamp estimated temperature distribution of brake shoe experimentally. Donzella proposed fatigue life using thermal stress and residual stress. However, the load applied to wheel in aforementioned most researches considered thermal load and mechanical vertical load. Exact horizontal load is not considered as the load applied to wheel. Therefore, above-mentioned loading methods could not be applied to estimate actual stress applied to wheel. Therefore, this study proposed safety estimation on wheel of freight car using heat-structural coupled analysis on the basis of loading condition and stress intensity factor.

Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Hwang, Byoung-Soh;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

The Study of Infinite NHPP Software Reliability Model from the Intercept Parameter using Linear Hazard Rate Distribution (선형위험률분포의 절편모수에 근거한 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. In infinite failure NHPP software reliability models, the fault occurrence rates may have constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing pattern. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that the situation was reflected for the fault occurs in the repair time, were presented about comparing property. Commonly, the software model of the infinite failures using the linear hazard rate distribution software reliability based on intercept parameter was used in business economics and actuarial modeling, was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively large intercept parameter was appeared effectively form. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination. The linear hazard rate distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 90% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative model could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider intercept parameter of life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

The Study on the Asymmetry of Inertia and Variety-Seeking State - Using Section-Aggregated Multinomial Logit Analysis (관성 및 다양성추구 상태의 비대칭성에 관한 연구 - 구간통합 다항로짓분석을 활용하여)

  • Lee, Seung-yon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 2013
  • Customer's purchase state consists of purchase inertia and variety-seeking. As the growing brand familiarity triggers the increase of brand attractiveness, customers purchase state will be of inertia. However the excessively growing brand familiarity ignites the decrease of brand attractiveness. Followingly the purchase state will be tend to plunge into the variety-seeking state. The main topic of this study is to validate the asymmetric formation of customer's purchase states between inertia and variety-seeking. In order to follow up the main topic, this article introduces a model to freely describe the velocity of value changes depending upon the purchase states. This model will help overcome the limitation of the past studies having been based on the symmetric value changes. Based on this approach marketer will be able to decide the timing of sales promotions. This research utilized local telecommunication carrier's database of smartphone application purchase/download records. This database was collected from two years (2009 and 2010) span, the time when the smartphones started commodifying in Korea whilst most of the past studies had used purchase data of maturity stage products. From this approach utilizing the introduction stage data in the product life cycle, the probability of brand choice depending upon the purchase state on the early-stage can be probed. Moreover, this study tries to expand the research methodology from the other areas of research by knowledge sharing. Here this study introduces the methodology of section-aggregated multinomial logit to simultaneously estimate the parameters that were included in the plural multinomial logit functions while the plural functions were inter-connected. This adoption of section-aggregated multinomial logit model procedures from the computerized statistics areas is expected to nourish the marketing research for more precise analysis and estimation of effects of marketing activities.

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Development and Application of a Subject Substitute STEAM Lesson in Elementary School Science Education (초등과학교육에서 차시대체형 STEAM 수업 개발 및 적용)

  • Chae, Dong-Hyun;Moon, Byoung-Chan;Kim, Eun-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.327-337
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    • 2014
  • In this research, a subject substitute STEAM program was developed in context of a trend of STEAM education and a new science contents in a 2009 revised curriculum, which can replace the 2009 revised curriculum contents of 'Sound' unit in the third and the fourth grade. The developed program was taught to the 4th graders in a field. After applying the program, how students acknowledge the subject substitute STEAM program was analyzed through questionnaire. The research results were as follows. First, the subject substitute STEAM program of 3 sub programs was developed with centered around 'sound' unit for 4th graders. Second, students made a positive estimation of the STEAM program because of various activities and learning subject related to daily life. Third, they considered difficult term, necessary craft skills in creative design, understanding scientific principle and a lot of necessary time as difficulties of the STEAM program. And they also recognized that making stuff activity and learning aid material like activity sheet, picture and video helped to understand a lesson. Lastly, students had a positive thinking or negative thinking about STEAM program before they learn. But after learning the STEAM program, all of them showed their positive attitude to the STEAM program.

An Analysis of the Frictional Energy on the Rubber Block (고무 블록의 마찰에너지 해석)

  • Yoo, Hyun-Seung;Kim, Doo-Man;Lee, Sang-Ju;Ko, Bum-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.35 no.7
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    • pp.619-626
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    • 2007
  • The analysis of the frictional energy of the rubber block with contact to the surface is necessary to study the wear for rubber. It is important to define the relationship of the frictional energy and wear, as the most theory of the wear of rubber product is based on the frictional energy of rubber block. To predict the life of the rubber block, the most of research has been focused on the use of the finite element analysis or the actual experiments which need the many time and expensive costs.Therefore, this research is achieved the successful results of the analysis to the frictional energy by analytic method. This frictional energy is function of the material properties, the shape of block, the vertical and horizontal load and the block moving speed. The analytical results are compared with the test results of this paper which can be used for the analysis of the friction behavior for the wear estimation of the rubber products.

Ecotoxicity Estimation of Hazardous Air Pollutants Emitted from Semiconductor Manufacturing Processes Utilizing QSAR

  • Park, Hyung-Geun;Yeo, Min-Kyeong
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.34 no.12
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    • pp.3755-3761
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to assess the ecological risk of the hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea by using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR, EPA, US, EPI $Suite^{TM}$ 4.1). Owing to the absence of environmental standards of hazardous air pollutants in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea, 18 HAPs in the semiconductor field included in both the US EPA NESHAPs and the hazardous air pollutant list of Ministry of Environment in Korea were selected. As a results 8 chemicals (44.4%) of the selected 18 HAPs were VOCs. Cyanides (cyanides) and ethylene oxides (epoxy resins), and tetrachloro-ethylene (aliphatic compounds, halides) showed long half-lives. Cyanide HAPs especially had the highest half-life with the estimated value of 356.533 days. Nickel compounds (heavy metal compounds) possessed the highest water solubility followed by acetaldehyde (aldehyde compounds), ethylene oxides, and 1,4-dioxanes. The halides, including tetrachloro-ethylenes, carbon tetra-chlorides, benzene (aromatic compounds), and lead (heavy metals), are estimated to take the longest time for biodegradation. Tetrachloroethylene, with the acute toxicity end point of 3.685-7.033 mg/L, was assessed to be the most highly toxic substance among the 18 HAPs. However, considering the absence of the HAPs in the common category of log $K_{ow}{\geq}4$and $BCF{\geq}500$, which indicates the standard of bioconcentration potentials, potentials of the bioconcentration are considered to be low.