• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life time estimation

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Comparative genetic analysis of frequentist and Bayesian approach for reproduction, production and life time traits showing favourable association of age at first calving in Tharparkar cattle

  • Nistha Yadav;Sabyasachi Mukherjee;Anupama Mukherjee
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.1806-1820
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The present study was aimed primarily for estimating various genetic parameters (heritability, genetic correlations) of reproduction (age at first calving [AFC], first service period [FSP]); production (first lactation milk, solid-not fat, and fat yield) and lifetime traits (lifetime milk yield, productive life [PL], herd life [HL]) in Tharparkar cattle to check the association of reproduction traits with lifetime traits through two different methods (Frequentist and Bayesian) for comparative purpose. Methods: Animal breeding data of Tharparkar cattle (n = 964) collected from Livestock farm unit of ICAR-NDRI Karnal for the period 1990 through 2019 were analyzed using a Frequentist least squares maximum likelihood method (LSML; Harvey, 1990) and a multi-trait Bayesian-Gibbs sampler approach (MTGSAM) for genetic correlations estimation of all the traits. Estimated breeding values of sires was obtained by BLUP and Bayesian analysis for the production traits. Results: Heritability estimates of most of the traits were medium to high with the LSML (0.20±0.44 to 0.49±0.71) and Bayesian approach (0.24±0.009 to 0.61±0.017), respectively. However, more reliable estimates were obtained using the Bayesian technique. A higher heritability estimate was obtained for AFC (0.61±0.017) followed by first lactation fat yield, first lactation solid-not fat yield, FSP, first lactation milk yield (FLMY), PL (0.60±0.013, 0.60±0.006, 0.57±0.024, 0.57±0.020, 0.42±0.025); while a lower estimate for HL (0.38±0.034) by MTGSAM approach. Genetic and phenotypic correlations were negative for AFC-PL, AFC-HL, FSP-PL, and FSP-HL (-0.59±0.19, -0.59±0.24, -0.38±0.101 and -0.34±0.076) by the multi-trait Bayesian analysis. Conclusion: Breed and traits of economic importance are important for selection decisions to ensure genetic gain in cattle breeding programs. Favourable genetic and phenotypic correlations of AFC with production and lifetime traits compared to that of FSP indicated better scope of AFC for indirect selection of life-time traits at an early age. This also indicated that the present Tharparkar cattle herd had sufficient genetic diversity through the selection of AFC for the improvement of first lactation production and lifetime traits.

Prediction of Loss of Life in Downstream due to Dam Break Flood (댐 붕괴 홍수로 인한 하류부 인명피해 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Jong Seok;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.10
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    • pp.879-889
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    • 2014
  • In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.

A Study on Parameters Estimation of Storage Function Model Using the Genetic Algorithms (유전자 알고리듬을 이용한 저류함수모형의 매개변수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Bong-Jin;Cha, Hyeong-Seon;Kim, Ju-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.347-355
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    • 1997
  • In this study, the applicability of genetic algorithms into the parameter estimation of storage function method for flood routing model is investigated. Genetic algorithm is mathematically established theory based on the process of Darwinian natural selection and survival of fittest. It can be represented as a kind of search algorithms for optima point in solution space and make a reach on optimal solutions through performance improvement of assumed model by applying the natural selection of life as mechanical learning province. Flood events recorded in the Daechung dam are selected and used for the parameter estimation and verification of the proposed parameter estimation method by the split sample method. The results are analyzed that the performance of the model are improved including peak discharge and time to peak and shown that the parameter Rsa, and f1 are most sensitive to storage function model. Based on the analysis for estimated parameters and the comparison with the results from experimental equations, the applicability of genetic algorithm is verified and the improvements of those equations will be used for the augmentation of flood control efficiency.

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Evaluation on the Reliability Attributes of Finite Failure NHPP Software Reliability Model Based on Pareto and Erlang Lifetime Distribution (파레토 및 어랑 수명분포에 근거한 유한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성모형의 신뢰도 속성에 관한 평가)

  • Min, Kyung-il
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2020
  • In the software development process, software reliability evaluation is a very important issue. In particular, finding the optimal development model that satisfies high reliability is the more important task for software developers. For this, in this study, Pareto and Erlang life distributions were applied to the finite failure NHPP model to evaluate the reliability attributes. For this purpose, parametric estimation is applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method, and nonlinear equations are calculated using the bisection method. As a result, the Erlang model showed better performance than the Pareto model in the evaluation of the strength function and the mean value function. Also, as a result of inputting future mission time and evaluating reliability, the Erlang model showed an effectively high trend together with the Pareto model, while the Goel-Okumoto basic model showed a decreasing trend. In conclusion, the Erlang model is the best model among the proposed models. Through this study, it is expected that software developers will be able to use it as a basic guideline for exploring and evaluating the optimal software reliability model.

Target Position Estimation using Wireless Sensor Node Signal Processing based on Lifting Scheme Wavelet Transform (리프팅 스킴 웨이블릿 변환 기반의 무선 센서 노드 신호처리를 이용한 표적 위치 추정)

  • Cha, Dae-Hyun;Lee, Tae-Young;Hong, Jin-Keun;Han, Kun-Hui;Hwang, Chan-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1272-1277
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    • 2010
  • Target detection and tracking wireless sensor network must have various signal processing ability. Wireless sensor nodes need to light weight signal processing algorithm because of energy constraints and communication bandwidth constraints. General signal processing algorithm of wireless sensor node consists of de-noising, received signal strength computation, feature extraction and signal compression. Wireless sensor network life-time and performance of target detection and classification depend on sensor node signal processing. In this paper, we propose energy efficient signal processing algorithm using wavelet transform. The proposed method estimates exact target position.

Estimation of the Flash Flood Index by the Probable Rainfall Data for Ungauged Catchments (미계측 유역에서의 확률강우에 대한 돌발홍수지수 산정)

  • Kim, Eung-Seok;Choi, Hyun-Il;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2010
  • As there occurs recently and frequently a flash flood due to the climate change, a sudden local flood of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall in a short period of time over a small area, it is increasing that significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as the whole world. Since a flash flood usually occurs as the result of intense rainfall over small steep slope regions and has rapid runoff and debris flow, a flood rises quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. The aim of this study is to quantify the severity of flash food by estimation of a flash flood index(FFI) from probability rainfall data in a study basin. FFI-D-F(FFI-Duration-Frequency) curves that present the relative severity of flash flood are developed for a study basin to provide regional basic information for the local flood forecasting and warning system particularly in ungauged catchments. It is also expected that FFI-D-F curves can be utilized for evaluation on flash flood mitigation ability and residual flood risk of both existing and planned flood control facilities.

Estimation of sewer deterioration by Weibull distribution function (와이블 분포함수를 이용한 하수관로 노후도 추정)

  • Kang, Byongjun;Yoo, Soonyu;Park, Kyoohong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2020
  • Sewer deterioration models are needed to forecast the remaining life expectancy of sewer networks by assessing their conditions. In this study, the serious defect (or condition state 3) occurrence probability, at which sewer rehabilitation program should be implemented, was evaluated using four probability distribution functions such as normal, lognormal, exponential, and Weibull distribution. A sample of 252 km of CCTV-inspected sewer pipe data in city Z was collected in the first place. Then the effective data (284 sewer sections of 8.15 km) with reliable information were extracted and classified into 3 groups considering the sub-catchment area, sewer material, and sewer pipe size. Anderson-Darling test was conducted to select the most fitted probability distribution of sewer defect occurrence as Weibull distribution. The shape parameters (β) and scale parameters (η) of Weibull distribution were estimated from the data set of 3 classified groups, including standard errors, 95% confidence intervals, and log-likelihood values. The plot of probability density function and cumulative distribution function were obtained using the estimated parameter values, which could be used to indicate the quantitative level of risk on occurrence of CS3. It was estimated that sewer data group 1, group 2, and group 3 has CS3 occurrence probability exceeding 50% at 13th-year, 11th-year, and 16th-year after the installation, respectively. For every data groups, the time exceeding the CS3 occurrence probability of 90% was also predicted to be 27th- to 30th-year after the installation.

Evaluation of Application to Pre-Developed Delivery Load Equation at Upper Watershed of the Daechung Reservoir (대청호 상류유역의 기 개발된 유달부하량 산정식의 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Jun-Bae;Kim, Kap-Soon;Lee, Kyu-Seung;Yoon, Young-Sam;Lim, Byung-Jin;Jung, Jae-Woon
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2012
  • BACKGROUND: To improve the Daechung reservoir water quality, a quantitative estimation of the delivery load from upper watershed need to be conducted prior to others. To do so, an intensive monitoring is necessary because of the complexity and uncertainty of the delivery load from uppper watershed. However, intensive monitoring need to invest much time, cost, and effort. So, many researcher have developed an equation to estimate the delivery loads. But, relatively little research has been conducted on the applicability of pre-developed equation using other sites. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate application of the equation for BOD, T-N and T-P delivery load. METHODS AND RESULTS: To verify the applicability of the equation, the following equation was used; Delivery loads(kg/day)=generated pollutant loads${\times}(1-{\alpha}){\times}$(daily outflow/${\beta})^{\gamma}$. The equations could be calculated the daily delivery loads of streams without any data of water quality, only with the data of daily runoff of study sites. The equations were applied to Youngdogcheon, Chogangcheon, Bocheongcheon, Sookcheon to examine its applicability using monitoring data. The results showed that the estimated delivery loads were in a good agreement with the observed data and indicated reasonable applicability of the equations. CONCLUSION(s): Overall, the equations were satisfactory in estimation of delivery loads at upper watershed of the Daechung reservoir. Therefore, the equations could be contributed to better water quality management in the Daechung reservoir.

The Assessing Comparative Study for Statistical Process Control of Software Reliability Model Based on Musa-Okumo and Power-law Type (Musa-Okumoto와 Power-law형 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 통계적 공정관리 접근방법 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.483-490
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    • 2015
  • There are many software reliability models that are based on the times of occurrences of errors in the debugging of software. It is shown that it is possible to do likelihood inference for software reliability models based on finite failure model and non-homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP). For someone making a decision about when to market software, the conditional failure rate is an important variables. The infinite failure model are used in a wide variety of practical situations. Their use in characterization problems, detection of outlier, linear estimation, study of system reliability, life-testing, survival analysis, data compression and many other fields can be seen from the many study. Statistical process control (SPC) can monitor the forecasting of software failure and thereby contribute significantly to the improvement of software reliability. Control charts are widely used for software process control in the software industry. In this paper, proposed a control mechanism based on NHPP using mean value function of Musa-Okumo and Power law type property.

Estimation of Aging Properties for Plastic Bonded Explosives Using AKTS Thermokinetic Software (AKTS Software를 이용한 주조형 복합화약의 노화 특성 예측)

  • Kwon, Kuktae;Lee, Sojung;Kim, Seunghee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.66-71
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    • 2018
  • The evaluation of the shelf-life of energetic materials is important. However, there are several difficulties associated with the evaluation. First, aging experiments require a considerable amount of time. Second, treating highly energetic materials is dangerous. For these reasons, many evaluation methods have been developed. Because most energetic materials decompose with the evolution of heat, it is important to analyze the thermal properties of energetic materials in order to understand decomposition and aging properties. In this paper, we describe the estimation of thermal aging properties and develop a kinetic model from spot data set of mechanical properties and estimate aging properties for mechanical results.