• 제목/요약/키워드: Level probability

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Risk Assessment for Salmonellosis in Chicken in South Korea: The Effect of Salmonella Concentration in Chicken at Retail

  • Jeong, Jaewoon;Chon, Jung-Whan;Kim, Hyunsook;Song, Kwang-Young;Seo, Kun-Ho
    • 한국축산식품학회지
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    • 제38권5호
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    • pp.1043-1054
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    • 2018
  • Salmonellosis caused by chicken consumption has been a critical issue in food safety worldwide, including in Korea. The probability of illness from consumption of chicken was simulated in study, based on the recipe of Dakgalbi, a commonly eaten chicken dish in Korea. Additionally, the processing stage at slaughterhouses to decrease Salmonella concentration in broilers was modeled to explore its effect on the likelihood of illness. A Monte Carlo simulation model was created using @RISK. Prevalence of Salmonella in chickens at the retail stage was found to be predominantly important in determining the probability of illness. Other than the prevalence, cooking temperature was found to have the largest impact on the probability of illness. The results also demonstrated that, although chlorination is a powerful tool for decreasing the Salmonella concentration in chicken, this effect did not last long and was negated by the following stages. This study analyzes the effects of variables of the retail-to-table pathway on the likelihood of salmonellosis in broiler consumption, and also evaluates the processing step used to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses. According to the results, we suggest that methods to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella such as chlorination had little effect on decreasing the probability of illness. Overall, these results suggest that preventing contamination of broiler with Salmonella must be a top priority and that methods to reduce the concentration of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses hardly contribute to safe consumption of Salmonella-contaminated chicken.

Performance Improvement on MPLS On-line Routing Algorithm for Dynamic Unbalanced Traffic Load

  • Sa-Ngiamsak, Wisitsak;Sombatsakulkit, Ekanun;Varakulsiripunth, Ruttikorn
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1846-1850
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a constrained-based routing (CBR) algorithm called, Dynamic Possible Path per Link (D-PPL) routing algorithm, for MultiProtocol Label Switching (MPLS) networks. In MPLS on-line routing, future traffics are unknown and network resource is limited. Therefore many routing algorithms such as Minimum Hop Algorithm (MHA), Widest Shortest Path (WSP), Dynamic Link Weight (DLW), Minimum Interference Routing Algorithm (MIRA), Profiled-Based Routing (PBR), Possible Path per Link (PPL) and Residual bandwidth integrated - Possible Path per Link (R-PPL) are proposed in order to improve network throughput and reduce rejection probability. MIRA is the first algorithm that introduces interference level avoidance between source-destination node pairs by integrating topology information or address of source-destination node pairs into the routing calculation. From its results, MIRA improves lower rejection probability performance. Nevertheless, MIRA suffer from its high routing complexity which could be considered as NP-Complete problem. In PBR, complexity of on-line routing is reduced comparing to those of MIRA, because link weights are off-line calculated by statistical profile of history traffics. However, because of dynamic of traffic nature, PBR maybe unsuitable for MPLS on-line routing. Also, both PPL and R-PPL routing algorithm we formerly proposed, are algorithms that achieve reduction of interference level among source-destination node pairs, rejection probability and routing complexity. Again, those previously proposed algorithms do not take into account the dynamic nature of traffic load. In fact, future traffics are unknown, but, amount of previous traffic over link can be measured. Therefore, this is the motivation of our proposed algorithm, the D-PPL. The D-PPL algorithm is improved based on the R-PPL routing algorithm by integrating traffic-per-link parameters. The parameters are periodically updated and are dynamically changed depended on current incoming traffic. The D-PPL tries to reserve residual bandwidth to service future request by avoid routing through those high traffic-per-link parameters. We have developed extensive MATLAB simulator to evaluate performance of the D-PPL. From simulation results, the D-PPL improves performance of MPLS on-line routing in terms of rejection probability and total throughput.

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어레이 설계 응용을 위한 랜덤어레이의 통계적 성질 (Statistical Properties of Random Sparse Arrays with Application to Array Design)

  • Kook, Hyung-Seok;Davies, Patricia;Bolton, J.Stuart
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.1493-1510
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    • 2000
  • Theoretical models that can be used to predict the range of main lobe widths and the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels of two-dimensionally sparse arrays are presented here. The arrays are considered to comprise microphones that are randomly positioned on a segmented grid of a given size. First, approximate expressions for the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function and the variance of the squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function about this mean are formulated for the random arrays considered in the present study. By using the variance function, the mean value and the lower end of the range i.e., the first I percent of the mainlobe distribution can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. To predict the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels, distributions of levels are modeled by a Weibull distribution at each peak in the sidelobe region of the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function. The two parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated from the means and variances of the levels at the corresponding locations. Next, the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels are assumed to be determined by a procedure in which the peak sidelobe level is determined as the maximum among a finite number of independent random sidelobe levels. It is found that the model obtained from the above approach predicts the probability density function of the peak sidelobe level distribution reasonably well for the various combinations of two different numbers of microphones and grid sizes tested in the present study. The application of these models to the design of random, sparse arrays having specified performance levels is also discussed.

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이동 통신에서 호 수신 확률에 근거한 위치 관리 기법 (A Location Management Strategy Based on the Call Arrival Probability(CAP) in Mobile Communication)

  • 박선영;한기준
    • 대한전자공학회논문지TC
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.159-159
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    • 2004
  • 이동 통신망의 수요가 증가함에 따라 보다 많은 가입자를 수용하기 위해 셀의 크기가 소형화되고 이는 잦은 위치 갱신을 유발시켜 위치 관리 비용의 증가를 가져왔다. 이와 같은 위치 관리 비용을 줄이기 위해 본 논문에서는 호 수신 확률에 근거한 위치 관리 기법을 제안한다. 제안된 기법은 단말이 새로운 LA로 진입 할 때 그 LA에서 호 수신 확률과 현재까지의 위치 갱신 생략 횟수를 고려하여 위치 갱신 여부를 결정한다. 이 때 호 수신 확률은 단말의 이동 성향에 관한 예측 정보에 의해서 계산된다. 성능을 검증하기 위해 시뮬레이션을 수행하였고 그 결과, 예측 정보가 맞을 경우 위치 갱신 비용을 상당히 줄일 수 있으며 예측 정보가 어긋나더라도 최소한 기존 표준안(IS-41)의 위치 관리 비용을 초과하지 않음을 시뮬레이션을 통해 알 수 있었다. 또한 예측 정보 유지와 같은 유사한 형태의 오버헤드를 요구하는 AS(Alternative Strategy)와도 시뮬레이션을 통해 성능을 비교하고 제안한 기법의 성능이 우수함을 보였다.

이동 통신에서 호 수신 확률에 근거한 위치 관리 기법 (A Location Management Strategy Based on the Call Arrival Probability(CAP) in Mobile Communication)

  • 장성식;박선영;이원열;한기준
    • 대한전자공학회논문지TC
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • 이동 통신망의 수요가 증가함에 따라 보다 많은 가입자를 수용하기 위해 셀의 크기가 소형화되고 이는 잦은 위치 갱신을 유발시켜 위치 관리 비용의 증가를 가져왔다. 이와 같은 위치 관리 비용을 줄이기 위해 본 논문에서는 호 수신 확률에 근거한 위치 관리 기법을 제안한다. 제안된 기법은 단말이 새로운 LA로 진입 할 때 그 LA에서 호 수신 확률과 현재까지의 위치 갱신 생략 횟수를 고려하여 위치 갱신 여부를 결정한다. 이 때 호 수신 확률은 단말의 이동 성향에 관한 예측 정보에 의해서 계산된다. 성능을 검증하기 위해 시뮬레이션을 수행하였고 그 결과, 예측 정보가 맞을 경우 위치 갱신 비용을 상당히 줄일 수 있으며 예측 정보가 어긋나더라도 최소한 기존 표준안(IS-41)의 위치 관리 비용을 초과하지 않음을 시뮬레이션을 통해 알 수 있었다. 또한 예측 정보 유지와 같은 유사한 형태의 오버헤드를 요구하는 AS(Alternative Strategy)와도 시뮬레이션을 통해 성능을 비교하고 제안한 기법의 성능이 우수함을 보였다.

OFDMA 기반의 기업형 펨토셀 네트워크를 위한 협력 통신 기법 (Cooperative Transmission Scheme for OFDMA Based Enterprise Femtocell Networks)

  • 김승연;이상준;류승완;조충호;이형우
    • 한국통신학회논문지
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    • 제37권5B호
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    • pp.338-347
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    • 2012
  • 본 논문에서는 OFDMA 기반의 기업형 펨토셀 네트워크 환경에서 펨토셀의 성능 향상을 위한 협력 통신 기법(cooperative transmission scheme; CTS)을 제안한다. 제안된 알고리즘에서 UE(user equipment)는 현재 접속 중인 fBS(serving femtocell base station)에서 뿐만 아니라 주변 fBS에서 원하는 신호(desired signal)를 받게 된다. 따라서 UE는 동기화된 두 개의 신호에 의해 향상된 신호 대 간섭 잡음 비(SINR)를 얻게 된다. 알고리즘의 성능 평가를 위해 콜 레벨 QoS(quality of service)와 패킷 레벨 QoS를 성능 지표로 나타낸다. 먼저 다양한 offered load에서 하향 링크 자원에 대한 호 차단 확률과 자원 사용률을 측정한다. 그리고 측정된 값을 사용하여 시스템의 outage 확률과 시스템 처리량(effective throughput)을 시뮬레이션 한다. 시뮬레이션 결과를 통해 제안된 알고리즘이 기존 시스템에 비해 시스템 처리량에서 향상된 성능을 가짐을 보인다.

R&D 분야의 목표 시그마 수준 설정과 설계 공차의 강건 한계 결정에 대한 연구 (A study on target Sigma Level at R&D stage and robust limits for design margins)

  • 고승곤
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.369-379
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    • 2016
  • 시그마 수준(sigma level)이란 미국 모토롤라사에 의해 소개된 프로세스 능력 지수로서 1970년대 이후 널리 활용되고 있는 다양한 지수들 중의 하나이다. 이는 다른 지수들과 비교할 때 모 프로세스의 확률 분포에 기초한다는 장점을 갖지만 양산 단계를 가정한 것으로 R&D 분야의 시제품 그리고/또는 초도 양산품 단계에 직접 적용하는 것은 적절하지 못할 수 있다. 이에 본 논문은 시그마 수준을 계산할 때 가정하는 치우침에 대한 통계적 고찰을 통하여 양산단계에서 6 시그마 품질 수준을 달성하기 위한 개발 단계의 시제품 그리고/또는 초도 양산품의 목표 시그마 수준 설정 방법을 소개한다. 그리고 이를 기초로 개발과 양산 단계에서 경제성을 달성할 수 있는 설계 공차의 강건 한계 도출 방법을 제시해 보고자 한다.

Formal Trust Assessment with Confidence Probability

  • Kutay, Mahir;Ercan, Tuncay
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.830-842
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    • 2015
  • Trust and trustworthiness of web services and organizations is calculated as scalar values. But there is still a certain level of risk for the overall reliability of this value. In this article, we focus on calculating trust values as intervals between upper and lower bounds based on predefined confidence values through an additional confidence probability. This will give us a more realistic approach to the trust assessments between individuals and organizations. We also developed a web-based software tool, TAST (Trust Assessment Software Tool) that collects the web services' evaluation of different customer groups for similar organizations through the user interface and calculates the trust intervals for predefined and previously selected confidence values. Our model uses a weighted calculation of mean and variances of customer groups in specific periods and analyses the total and incremental trust of different customer groups.

능동 소나 체계에서의 표적 탐지거리 예측 알고리즘과 최적 탐지깊이 결정에의 응용 (Detection Range Estimation Algorithm for Active SONAR System and Application to the Determination of Optimal Search Depth)

  • 박재은;김재수
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 1994
  • In order to estimate the detection range of a active SONAR system, the SONAR equation is commonly used. In this paper, an algorithm to calculate detection range in active SONAR system as function of SONAR depth and target depth is presented. For given SONAR parameters and environment, the transmission loss and background level are found, signal excess is computed. Using log-normal distribution, signal excess is converted to detection probability at each range. Then, the detection range is obtained by integrating the detection probability as function of range for each depth. The proposed algorithm have been applied to the case of omni-directional source with center frequency 30Hz for summer and winter sound profiles. It is found that the optimal search depth is the source depth since the detection range increase at source depth where the signal excess is maximized.

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민간 의료 보험 가입이 의료 이용에 미치는 영향 (Effect of private health insurance on health care utilization in a universal health insurance system: A case of South Korea)

  • 이유진;이진형
    • 한국병원경영학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.42-53
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: this study investigates the effect of private health insurance on healthcare utilization. Methodology: For the analysis, we employed the three level nested two part model. Findings: the private health insurance adoption was associated with higher health care utilization. In particular, indemnity and fixed insurances adoption was associated with higher probability of outpatient visit, the number of outpatient visit and outpatient cost. While indemnity insurance adoption was associated with higher inpatient admission probability and inpatient days, fixed insurance adoption was associated only with higher inpatient admission probability. Practical Implications: indemnity and fixed insurance adoption were related with the adverse selection as well as moral hazard.