• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.190-200
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• 1996

Background : Mechanical ventilation constitutes the last therapeutic method for acute respiratory failure when oxygen therapy and medical treatment fail to improve the respiratory status of the patient. This invasive ventilation, classically administered by endotracheal intubation or by tracheostomy, is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. Consequently, any less invasive method able to avoid the use of endotracheal ventilation would appear to be useful in high risk patient. Over recent years, the efficacy of nasal mask ventilation has been demonstrated in the treatment of chronic restrictive respiratory failure, particularly in patients with neuromuscular diseases. More recently, this method has been successfully used in the treatment of acute respiratory failure due to parenchymal disease. Method : We assessed the efficacy of Bilevel positive airway pressure(BiPAP) in the treatment of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD). This study prospectively evaluated the clinical effectiveness of a treatment schedule with positive pressure ventilation via nasal mask(Respironics BiPAP device) in 22 patients with acute exacerbations of COPD. Eleven patients with acute exacerbations of COPD were treated with nasal pressure support ventilation delivered via a nasal ventilatory support system plus standard treatment for 3 consecutive days. An additional 11 control patients were treated only with standard treatment. The standard treatment consisted of medical and oxygen therapy. The nasal BiPAP was delivered by a pressure support ventilator in spontaneous timed mode and at an inspiratory positive airway pressure $6-8cmH_2O$ and an expiratory positive airway pressure $3-4cmH_2O$. Patients were evaluated with physical examination(respiratory rate), modified Borg scale and arterial blood gas before and after the acute therapeutic intervention. Results : Pretreatment and after 3 days of treatment, mean $PaO_2$ was 56.3mmHg and 79.1mmHg (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 56.9mmHg and 70.2mmHg (p<0.05) in conventional treatment (CT) group and $PaCO_2$ was 63.9mmHg and 56.9mmHg (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 53mmHg and 52.8mmHg in CT group respectively. pH was 7.36 and 7.41 (p<0.05) in BiPAP group and 7.37 and 7.38 in cr group respectively. Pretreatment and after treatment, mean respiratory rate was 28 and 23 beats/min in BiPAP group and 25 and 20 beats/min in CT group respectively. Borg scale was 7.6 and 4.7 in BiPAP group and 6.4 and 3.8 in CT group respectively. There were significant differences between the two groups in changes of mean $PaO_2$, $PaCO_2$ and pH respectively. Conclusion: We conclude that short-term nasal pressure-support ventilation delivered via nasal BiPAP in the treatment of acute exacerbation of COPD, is an efficient mode of assisted ventilation for improving blood gas values and dyspnea sensation and may reduce the need for endotracheal intubation with mechanical ventilation.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.44-49
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• 2017

Purpose Radiation exposure management has been strictly regulated for the radiation workers, but there are only a few studies on potential risk of radiation exposure to non-radiation workers, especially nurses in a general ward. The present study aimed to estimate the exact total exposure of the nurse in a general ward by close contact with the patient undergoing nuclear medicine examinations. Materials and Methods Radiation exposure rate was determined by using thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) and optical simulated luminescence (OSL) in 14 nurses in a general ward from October 2015 to June 2016. External radiation rate was measured immediately after injection and examination at skin surface, and 50 cm and 1 m distance from 50 patients (PET/CT 20 pts; Bone scan 20 pts; Myocardial SPECT 10 pts). After measurement, effective half-life, and total radiation exposure expected in nurses were calculated. Then, expected total exposure was compared with total exposures actually measured in nurses by TLD and OSL. Results Mean and maximum amount of radiation exposure of 14 nurses in a general ward were 0.01 and 0.02 mSv, respectively in each measuring period. External radiation rate after injection at skin surface, 0.5 m and 1 m distance from patients was as following; $376.0{\pm}25.2$, $88.1{\pm}8.2$ and $29.0{\pm}5.8{\mu}Sv/hr$, respectively in PET/CT; $206.7{\pm}56.6$, $23.1{\pm}4.4$ and $10.1{\pm}1.4{\mu}Sv/hr$, respectively in bone scan; $22.5{\pm}2.6$, $2.4{\pm}0.7$ and $0.9{\pm}0.2{\mu}Sv/hr$, respectively in myocardial SPECT. After examination, external radiation rate at skin surface, 0.5 m and 1 m distance from patients was decreased as following; $165.3{\pm}22.1$, $38.7{\pm}5.9$ and $12.4{\pm}2.5{\mu}Sv/hr$, respectively in PET/CT; $32.1{\pm}8.7$, $6.2{\pm}1.1$, $2.8{\pm}0.6$, respectively in bone scan; $14.0{\pm}1.2$, $2.1{\pm}0.3$, $0.8{\pm}0.2{\mu}Sv/hr$, respectively in myocardial SPECT. Based upon the results, an effective half-life was calculated, and at 30 minutes after examination the time to reach normal dose limit in 'Nuclear Safety Act' was calculated conservatively without considering a half-life. In oder of distance (at skin surface, 0.5 m and 1 m distance from patients), it was 7.9, 34.1 and 106.8 hr, respectively in PET/CT; 40.4, 199.5 and 451.1 hr, respectively in bone scan, 62.5, 519.3 and 1313.6 hr, respectively in myocardial SPECT. Conclusion Radiation exposure rate may differ slightly depending on the work process and the environment in a general ward. Exposure rate was measured at step in the general examination procedure and it made our results more reliable. Our results clearly showed that total amount of radiation exposure caused by residual radioactive isotope in the patient body was neglectable, even comparing with the natural radiation exposure. In conclusion, nurses in a general ward were much less exposed than the normal dose limit, and the effects of exposure by contacting patients undergoing nuclear medicine examination was ignorable.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.36 no.9
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• pp.1148-1160
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• 2007

This study was performed to document the association between eating behaviors and major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. Those who stated that they ate a daily breakfast for male and female were 88.6% and 96.0%, $1{\sim}2$ times a week were 9.1% and 2.0%, $3{\sim}4$ times a week were 2.3% and 2.0%, respectively. Those who stated that they were overeating of $0{\sim}1$ time a week for man and female were 80.7% and 89.9%, overeating of $2{\sim}3$ times a week were 19.3% and 10.1%, respectively. Those who said that they were regular of meal time for man and female were 38.6%, and 37.4%, sometimes irregular of meal time were 14.8% and 19.2%, irregular of meal time were 46.6% and 43.4%, respectively. Those who said that they were light of eating volume for man and female were 20.5% and 25.3%, moderate of eating volume were 69.3% and 61.6%, heavy of eating volume were 10.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Those who said that they were very fast of eating speed for man and female were 15.9% and 8.1%, fast of eating speed were 51.1% and 34.3%, moderate of eating speed were 4.5% and 20.2%, slow of eating speed were 17.0% and 14.1%, and very slow of eating speed were 11.4% and 23.2%, respectively. Higher frequency of breakfast a week resulted in higher serum total cholesterol and blood sugar for the daily eating group for both genders with women having high LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol. Both group had high HDL-cholesterol and low blood sugar with less number of overeating, with men having low triglyceride and LDL-cholesterol. With regular meal, both group had low triglyceride, total-cholesterol, atherogenic index, and blood sugar with women having low LDL-cholesterol. For both groups, the triglyceride, total-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, atherogenic index, and blood sugar had higher figures for overeating, with men having low HDL-cholesterol and women having high HDL-cholesterol. This study revealed that less number of overeating, regular mealtime, and less volume of food intake are effective in preventing and treating for the cardiovascular diseases.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.39 no.12 s.269
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• pp.879-890
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• 2006

Background: The dysfunction of multiple organs is found to be caused by reactive oxygen species as a major modulator of microvascular injury after hemorrhagic shock. Hemorrhagic shock, one of many causes inducing acute lung injury, is associated with increase in alveolocapillary permeability and characterized by edema, neutrophil infiltration, and hemorrhage in the interstitial and alveolar space. Aggressive and rapid fluid resuscitation potentially might increased the risk of pulmonary dysfunction by the interstitial edema. Therefore, in order to improve the pulmonary dysfunction induced by hemorrhagic shock, the present study was attempted to investigate how to reduce the inflammatory responses and edema in lung. Material and Method: Male Sprague-Dawley rats, weight 300 to 350 gm were anesthetized with ketamine(7 mg/kg) intramuscular Hemorrhagic Shock(HS) was induced by withdrawal of 3 mL/100 g over 10 min. through right jugular vein. Mean arterial pressure was then maintained at $35{\sim}40$ mmHg by further blood withdrawal. At 60 min. after HS, the shed blood and Ringer's solution or 5% albumin was infused to restore mean carotid arterial pressure over 80 mmHg. Rats were divided into three groups according to rectal temperature level($37^{\circ}C$[normothermia] vs $33^{\circ}C$[mild hypothermia]) and resuscitation fluid(lactate Ringer's solution vs 5% albumin solution). Group I consisted of rats with the normothermia and lactate Ringer's solution infusion. Group II consisted of rats with the systemic hypothermia and lactate Ringer's solution infusion. Group III consisted of rats with the systemic hypothermia and 5% albumin solution infusion. Hemodynamic parameters(heart rate, mean carotid arterial pressure), metabolism, and pulmonary tissue damage were observed for 4 hours. Result: In all experimental groups including 6 rats in group I, totally 26 rats were alive in 3rd stage. However, bleeding volume of group I in first stage was $3.2{\pm}0.5$ mL/100 g less than those of group II($3.9{\pm}0.8$ mL/100 g) and group III($4.1{\pm}0.7$ mL/100 g). Fluid volume infused in 2nd stage was $28.6{\pm}6.0$ mL(group I), $20.6{\pm}4.0$ mL(group II) and $14.7{\pm}2.7$ mL(group III), retrospectively in which there was statistically a significance between all groups(p<0.05). Plasma potassium level was markedly elevated in comparison with other groups(II and III), whereas glucose level was obviously reduced in 2nd stage of group I. Level of interleukine-8 in group I was obviously higher than that of group II or III(p<0.05). They were $1.834{\pm}437$ pg/mL(group I), $1,006{\pm}532$ pg/mL(group II), and $764{\pm}302$ pg/mL(group III), retrospectively. In histologic score, the score of group III($1.6{\pm}0.6$) was significantly lower than that of group I($2.8{\pm}1.2$)(p<0.05). Conclusion: In pressure-controlled hemorrhagic shock model, it is suggested that hypothermia might inhibit the direct damage of ischemic tissue through reduction of basic metabolic rate in shock state compared to normothermia. It seems that hypothermia should be benefit to recovery pulmonary function by reducing replaced fluid volume, inhibiting anti-inflammatory agent(IL-8) and leukocyte infiltration in state of ischemia-reperfusion injury. However, if is considered that other changes in pulmonary damage and inflammatory responses might induce by not only kinds of fluid solutions but also hypothermia, and that the detailed evaluation should be study.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.143-156
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• 2005

Background: The best dose-fractionation regimen of the definitive radiotherapy for cervix cancer remains to be clearly determined. It seems to be partially attributed to the complexity of the affecting factors and the lack of detailed information on external and intra-cavitary fractionation. To find optimal practice guidelines, our experiences of the combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-ICBT) were reviewed with detailed information of the various treatment parameters obtained from a large cohort of women treated homogeneously at a single institute. Materials and Methods: The subjects were 743 cervical cancer patients (Stage IB 198, IIA 77, IIB 364, IIIA 7, IIIB 89 and IVA 8) treated by radiotherapy alone, between 1990 and 1996. A total external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose of $23.4\~59.4$ Gy (Median 45.0) was delivered to the whole pelvis. High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IBT) was also peformed using various fractionation schemes. A Midline block (MLB) was initiated after the delivery of $14.4\~43.2$ Gy (Median 36.0) of EBRT in 495 patients, while In the other 248 patients EBRT could not be used due to slow tumor regression or the huge initial bulk of tumor. The point A, actual bladder & rectal doses were individually assessed in all patients. The biologically effective dose (BED) to the tumor ($\alpha/\beta$=10) and late-responding tissues ($\alpha/\beta$=3) for both EBRT and HDR-ICBT were calculated. The total BED values to point A, the actual bladder and rectal reference points were the summation of the EBRT and HDR-ICBT. In addition to all the details on dose-fractionation, the other factors (i.e. the overall treatment time, physicians preference) that can affect the schedule of the definitive radiotherapy were also thoroughly analyzed. The association between MD-BED $Gy_3$ and the risk of complication was assessed using serial multiple logistic regression models. The associations between R-BED $Gy_3$ and rectal complications and between V-BED $Gy_3$ and bladder complications were assessed using multiple logistic regression models after adjustment for age, stage, tumor size and treatment duration. Serial Coxs proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate the relative risks of recurrence due to MD-BED $Gy_{10}$, and the treatment duration. Results: The overall complication rate for RTOG Grades $1\~4$ toxicities was $33.1\%$. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate for ail 743 patients was $83\%$. The midline cumulative BED dose, which is the sum of external midline BED and HDR-ICBT point A BED, ranged from 62.0 to 121.9 $Gy_{10}$ (median 93.0) for tumors and from 93.6 to 187.3 $Gy_3$ (median 137.6) for late responding tissues. The median cumulative values of actual rectal (R-BED $Gy_3$) and bladder Point BED (V-BED $Gy_3$) were 118.7 $Gy_3$ (range $48.8\~265.2$) and 126.1 $Gy_3$ (range: $54.9\~267.5$), respectively. MD-BED $Gy_3$ showed a good correlation with rectal (p=0.003), but not with bladder complications (p=0.095). R-BED $Gy_3$ had a very strong association (p=<0.0001), and was more predictive of rectal complications than A-BED $Gy_3$. B-BED $Gy_3$ also showed significance in the prediction of bladder complications in a trend test (p=0.0298). No statistically significant dose-response relationship for pelvic control was observed. The Sandwich and Continuous techniques, which differ according to when the ICR was inserted during the EBRT and due to the physicians preference, showed no differences in the local control and complication rates; there were also no differences in the 3 vs. 5 Gy fraction size of HDR-ICBT. Conclusion: The main reasons optimal dose-fractionation guidelines are not easily established is due to the absence of a dose-response relationship for tumor control as a result of the high-dose gradient of HDR-ICBT, individual differences In tumor responses to radiation therapy and the complexity of affecting factors. Therefore, in our opinion, there is a necessity for individualized tailored therapy, along with general guidelines, in the definitive radiation treatment for cervix cancer. This study also demonstrated the strong predictive value of actual rectal and bladder reference dosing therefore, vaginal gauze packing might be very Important. To maintain the BED dose to less than the threshold resulting in complication, early midline shielding, the HDR-ICBT total dose and fractional dose reduction should be considered.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.247-256
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• 2008

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate anal sphincter preservation rates, survival rates, and prognostic factors in patients with rectal cancer treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy. Materials and Methods: One hundred fifty patients with pathologic confirmed rectal cancer and treated by preoperative chemoradiotherapy between January 1999 and June 2007. Of the 150 patients, the 82 who completed the scheduled chemoradiotherapy, received definitive surgery at our hospital, and did not have distant metastasis upon initial diagnosis were enrolled in this study. The radiation dose delivered to the whole pelvis ranged from 41.4 to 46.0 Gy (median 44.0 Gy) using daily fractions of $1.8{\sim}2.0\;Gy$ at 5 days per week and a boost dose to the primary tumor and high risk area up to a total of $43.2{\sim}54\;Gy$ (median 50.4 Gy). Sixty patients (80.5%) received 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, and cisplatin, while 16 patients (19.5%) were administered 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin every 4 weeks concurrently during radiotherapy. Surgery was performed for 3 to 45 weeks (median 7 weeks) after completion of chemoradiotherapy. Results: The sphincter preservation rates for all patients were 73.2% (60/82). Of the 48 patients whose tumor was located at less than 5 cm away from the anal verge, 31 (64.6%) underwent sphincter-saving surgery. Moreover, of the 34 patients whose tumor was located at greater than or equal to 5 cm away from the anal verge, 29 (85.3%) were able to preserve their anal sphincter. A pathologic complete response was achieved in 14.6% (12/82) of all patients. The downstaging rates were 42.7% (35/82) for the T stage, 75.5% (37/49) for the N stage, and 67.1% (55/82) for the overall stages. The median follow-up period was 38 months (range $11{\sim}107$ months). The overall 5-year survival, disease-free survival, and locoregional control rates were 67.4%, 58.9% and 84.4%, respectively. The 5-year overall survival rates based on the pathologic stage were 100% for stage 0 (n=12), 59.1% for stage I (n=16), 78.6% for stage II (n=30), 36.9% for stage III (n=23), and one patient with pathologic stage IV was alive for 43 months (p=0.02). The 5-year disease-free survival rates were 77.8% for stage 0, 63.6% for stage I, 58.9% for stage II, 51.1% for stage III, and 0% for stage IV (p<0.001). The 5-year locoregional control rates were 88.9% for stage 0, 93.8% for stage I, 91.1% for stage II, 68.2% for stage III, and one patient with pathologic stage IV was alive without local recurrence (p=0.01). The results of a multivariate analysis with age (${\leq}55$ vs. >55), clinical stage (I+II vs. III), radiotherapy to surgery interval (${\leq}6$ weeks vs. >6 weeks), operation type (sphincter preservation vs. no preservation), pathologic T stage, pathologic N stage, pathologic overall stage (0 vs. I+II vs. III+IV), and pathologic response (complete vs. non-CR), only age and pathologic N stage were significant predictors of overall survival, pathologic overall stage for disease-free survival, and pathologic N stage for locoregional control rates, respectively. Recurrence was observed in 25 patients (local recurrence in 10 patients, distant metastasis in 13 patients, and both in 2 patients). Acute hematologic toxicity ($\geq$grade 3) during chemoradiotherapy was observed in 2 patients, while skin toxicity was observed in 1 patient. Complications developing within 60 days after surgery and required admission or surgical intervention, were observed in 11 patients: anastomotic leakage in 5 patients, pelvic abscess in 2 patients, and others in 4 patients. Conclusion: Preoperative chemoradiotherapy was an effective modality to achieve downstaging and sphincter preservation in rectal cancer cases with a relatively low toxicity. Pathologic N stage was a statistically significant prognostic factor for survival and locoregional control and so, more intensified postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered in these patients.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.237-246
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• 2004

Purpose: To investigate the effects of radiation dose-escalation on the treatment outcome, complications and the other prognostic variables for glioblastoma patients treated with 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Materials and Methods: Between Jan 1997 and July 2002, a total of 75 patients with histologically proven diagnosis of glioblastoma were analyzed. The patients who had a Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) of 60 or higher, and received at least 50 Gy of radiation to the tumor bed were eligible. All the patients were divided into two arms; Arm 1, the high-dose group was enrolled prospectively, and Arm 2, the low-dose group served as a retrospective control. Arm 1 patients received $63\~70$ Gy (Median 66 Gy, fraction size $1.8\~2$ Gy) with 3D-conformal radiotherapy, and Arm 2 received 59.4 Gy or less (Median 59.4 Gy, fraction size 1.8 Gy) with 2D-conventional radiotherapy. The Gross Tumor Volume (GTV) was defined by the surgical margin and the residual gross tumor on a contrast enhanced MRI. Surrounding edema was not included in the Clinical Target Volume (CTV) in Arm 1, so as to reduce the risk of late radiation associated complications; whereas as in Arm 2 it was included. The overall survival and progression free survival times were calculated from the date of surgery using the Kaplan-Meier method. The time to progression was measured with serial neurologic examinations and MRI or CT scans after RT completion. Acute and late toxicities were evaluated using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group neurotoxicity scores. Results: During the relatively short follow up period of 14 months, the median overall survival and progression free survival times were $15{\pm}1.65$ and $11{\pm}0.95$ months, respectively. The was a significantly longer survival time for the Arm 1 patients compared to those in Arm 2 (p=0.028). For Arm 1 patients, the median survival and progression free survival times were $21{\pm}5.03$ and $12{\pm}1.59$ months, respectively, while for Arm 2 patients they were $14{\pm}0.94$ and $10{\pm}1.63$ months, respectively. Especially in terms of the 2-year survival rate, the high-dose group showed a much better survival time than the low-dose group; $44.7\%$ versus $19.2\%$. Upon univariate analyses, age, performance status, location of tumor, extent of surgery, tumor volume and radiation dose group were significant factors for survival. Multivariate analyses confirmed that the impact of radiation dose on survival was independent of age, performance status, extent of surgery and target volume. During the follow-up period, complications related directly with radiation, such as radionecrosis, has not been identified. Conclusion: Using 3D-conformal radiotherapy, which is able to reduce the radiation dose to normal tissues compared to 2D-conventional treatment, up to 70 Gy of radiation could be delivered to the GTV without significant toxicity. As an approach to intensify local treatment, the radiation dose escalation through 3D-CRT can be expected to increase the overall and progression free survival times for patients with glioblastomas.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.83-98
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• 2012

In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.20 no.1 s.21
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• pp.165-203
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• 1987

This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.