• 제목/요약/키워드: Least Square Regression

검색결과 421건 처리시간 0.027초

Developing the Accurate Method of Test Data Assessment with Changing Reliability Growth Rate and the Effect Evaluation for Complex and Repairable Products

  • So, Young-Kug;Ryu, Byeong-Jin
    • 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
    • /
    • 제15권2호
    • /
    • pp.90-100
    • /
    • 2015
  • Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the "Goodness of Fit (GOF)" of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the "GOF" of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.

Genetic and Non-genetic Factors Affecting Mortality in Lori-Bakhtiari Lambs

  • Vatankhah, M.;Talebi, M.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제22권4호
    • /
    • pp.459-464
    • /
    • 2009
  • Data and pedigree information for Lori-Bakhtiari sheep used in this study were 6,239 records of lamb mortality from 246 sires and 1,721 dams, collected from 1989 through 2007 from a Lori-Bakhtiari flock at Shooli station in Shahrekord. The traits investigated were cumulative lamb mortality from birth up to 7 days, up to 14 days, up to 21 days, and up to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 months of age. The models included fixed factors that had significant effects and random direct genetic, maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Variance components were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood procedure applying three animal models with and without maternal and common environmental effects. The overall mean of cumulative lamb mortality rate was 22.95% from birth to 1 year of age, while the overall mortality rate up to 3 and from 3 to 6 months of age was 6.14% and 12.76%, respectively. The mortality rate after 6 months of age declined as the lambs grew older. The age of dam had no important effect on lamb mortality. The type of birth was more important during the preweaning period than at later ages, and lamb mortality rate was higher in twins. The year of birth, month of birth and sex of lamb significantly (p${\leq}$0.01) affected the cumulative lamb mortality rate at all ages. The least square mean of mortality during the final one-third of the lambing period was higher than the first and middle onethird of the lambing period. Male lambs were found to be at a higher risk of mortality than females. Birth weight of the lamb had a highly significant (p${\leq}$0.01) effect on lamb mortality at all ages as a quadratic regression. Direct and maternal heritability estimates of lamb mortality ranged from 0.01 to 0.13 and 0.01 to 0.05, respectively. Direct heritability increased with age of lamb, while maternal effects (genetic and common environmental) were important in the preweaning period. These results indicate that lamb mortality can be reduced first through farm management practices and secondly by genetic selection. Both animal and maternal effects should be considered in breeding programmes for reducing lamb mortality at preweaning.

Modification of Microclimate to Improve Milk Production in Tropical Rainforest of Thailand

  • Suriyasathaporn, W.;Boonyayatra, S.;Kreausukon, K.;Pinyopummintr, T.;Heuer, C.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제19권6호
    • /
    • pp.811-815
    • /
    • 2006
  • The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of electric fan installation for milk production improvement of dairy cattle in Thailand. The study was conducted using 2 small-holder dairy farms in Chiang Mai province, during April to August 2004. Electric fans were installed in front of each row of cows. Each of the two rows of cows in the barn was defined as an experimental unit, thus each farm had two experimental units. The fans were operated alternately in 7-day intervals between rows of cows within each farm during the day or between 8.00 am to 8.00 pm. Non-operation periods were used as control. Milk yields were recorded. Data on environmental temperature and humidity were obtained from Chiang Mai Meteorological Center. Result from statistically analysis of milk record suggested an interaction between lactation period and fan installation. Therefore, this interaction term of lactation period and fan installation (PERIOD_FAN) was added as a variable to the regression model. Due to the repeated data collection of milk yield from the same cow (alternate week), milk yield was analyzed by repeated measure analysis (Mixed model). Least square means were calculated for all levels and used to compare between each pair-wise values. The final data were collected from the total of 18 cows with 2,072 data. Overall means and SEM of milk yields and days in milk separated into farm were $14.7{\pm}0.06kg/day$ and $176.3{\pm}2.2days$, and $15.2{\pm}0.22kg/day$ and $202.5{\pm}3.7$ days for farm A and farm B, respectively. For multivariable analysis, only PERIOD_FAN and humidity were significantly associated with milk yield. Only the first period of lactation showed that the amount of milk yields during fan installation was higher than that of non-fan installation (p<0.05). Cows with fan installation produced approximately 1.2 kg/cow more milk than cows without fan installation during this period. In conclusion, the use of electric fan operated during the day time increased milk production of cows during the first period of lactation.

Potential influence of κ-casein and β-lactoglobulin genes in genetic association studies of milk quality traits

  • Zepeda-Batista, Jose Luis;Saavedra-Jimenez, Luis Antonio;Ruiz-Flores, Agustin;Nunez-Dominguez, Rafael;Ramirez-Valverde, Rodolfo
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제30권12호
    • /
    • pp.1684-1688
    • /
    • 2017
  • Objective: From a review of published information on genetic association studies, a meta-analysis was conducted to determine the influence of the genes ${\kappa}-casein$ (CSN3) and ${\beta}-lactoglobulin$ (LGB) on milk yield traits in Holstein, Jersey, Brown Swiss, and Fleckvieh. Methods: The GLIMMIX procedure was used to analyze milk production and percentage of protein and fat in milk. Models included the main effects and all their possible two-way interactions; not estimable effects and non-significant (p>0.05) two-way interactions were dropped from the models. The three traits analyzed used Poisson distribution and a log link function and were determined with the Interactive Data Analysis of SAS software. Least square means and multiple mean comparisons were obtained and performed for significant main effects and their interactions (p<0.0255). Results: Interaction of breed by gene showed that Holstein and Fleckvieh were the breeds on which CSN3 ($6.01%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.98%{\pm}0.22%$), and LGB ($6.02%{\pm}0.19%$ and $5.70%{\pm}0.22%$) have the greatest influence. Interaction of breed by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that Holstein and Jersey showed greater influence of the CSN3 AA genotype, $6.04%{\pm}0.22%$ and $5.59%{\pm}0.31%$ than the other genotypes, while LGB AA genotype had the largest influence on the traits analyzed, $6.05%{\pm}0.20%$ and $5.60%{\pm}0.19%$, respectively. Furthermore, interaction of type of statistical model by genotype nested in the analyzed gene indicated that CSN3 and LGB genes had similar behavior, maintaining a difference of more than 7% across analyzed genotypes. These results could indicate that both Holstein and Jersey have had lower substitution allele effect in selection programs that include CSN3 and LGB genes than Brown Swiss and Fleckvieh. Conclusion: Breed determined which genotypes had the greatest association with analyzed traits. The mixed model based in Bayesian or Ridge Regression was the best alternative to analyze CSN3 and LGB gene effects on milk yield and protein and fat percentages.

Prediction of Crude Protein, Extractable Fat, Calcium and Phosphorus Contents of Broiler Chicken Carcasses Using Near-infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

  • Kadim, I.T.;Mahgoub, O.;Al-Marzooqi, W.;Annamalai, K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제18권7호
    • /
    • pp.1036-1040
    • /
    • 2005
  • Near-infrared reflectance spectroscopic (NIRS) calibrations were developed for accurate and fast prediction of whole broiler chicken carcass composition. The Feed and Forage Foss systems Model 5000 Reflectance Transport Model 5000 with near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS)-WinISI II windows software was used for this purpose. One equation was developed for the prediction of each carcass component. One hundred and fifty freeze dried broiler whole carcass samples were ground in a Cyclotech 1,093 sample mill and analyzed for dry matter, protein, fat, calcium and phosphate. Samples were divided into two sets: a calibration set from which equations were derived and a prediction set used to validate these equations. The chemical analysis values (mean${\pm}$SD) were calculated based on dry matter basis as follows: dry matter: 33.41${\pm}$2.78 (range: 26.41-43.47), protein: 54.04${\pm}$6.63 (range: 36.20-76.09), fat 35.44${\pm}$8.34 (range: 7.50-55.03), calcium 2.55${\pm}$0.65 (range: 0.99-4.41), phosphorus 1.38${\pm}$0.26 (range: 0.60-2.28). One hundred and three samples were used to calibrate the equations and prediction values. The software used was modified to obtain partial least square regression statistics, as it is the most suitable for natural products analysis. The coefficients of determination ($R^2$) and the standard errors of prediction were 0.82 and 1.83 for the dry matter, 0.96 and 1.98 for protein, 0.99 and 1.07 for fat, 0.90 and 0.30 for calcium and 0.91 and 0.11 for phosphorus, respectively. The present study indicated that NIRS can be calibrated to predict the whole broiler carcass chemical composition, including minerals in a rapid, accurate, and cost effective manner. It neither requires skilled operators nor generates hazardous waste. These findings may have practical importance to improve instrumental procedures for quick evaluation of broiler carcass composition.

배급수계통에서 잔류염소 및 THMs 분포 예측에 관한 연구 (Modeling Residual Chlorine and THMs in Water Distribution System)

  • 안재찬;이수원;노방식;최영준;최재호;김효일;박태준;박창민;박현;구자용
    • 대한환경공학회지
    • /
    • 제29권6호
    • /
    • pp.706-714
    • /
    • 2007
  • 본 연구에서는 배급수계통에서 잔류염소와 THMs의 분포를 예측하는 방안을 제시하였다. 잔류염소와 THMs의 등의 수질변화에 대해 현장조사를 실시하였고, 수체와 관벽에 대한 잔류염소 감소계수와 THMs의 생성계수를 산출하여 관망해석에 의한 수질모델링에 적용하였다. 병실험을 통해 잔류염소 병렬 1차 수체 반응계수를 구하고, 5개 관벽 감소 모델을 비교 평가하여 1차 관벽 감소계수 산출하고 적용했을 때 잔류염소 현장 측정값과 관망 수질모델링에 의한 예측간의 평균절대오차 및 평균제곱근오차가 각각 0.03, 0.037 mg/L로 가장 작았다. 또한 병실험에 의한 THMs생성량을 비선형 회귀분석으로 1차 생성계수를 구하고 현장 측정값과 비교하였다. 그 결과, 9월의 현장 측정값과 예측값의 결정계수 $R^2$는 0.98, 11월에는 0.82로 예측이 가능하였다.

정상성인에서의 Tc-99m-DTPA 폐제거율 (Tc-99m-DAPA Pulmonary Clearance in Normals)

  • 정수교;양우진;손형선;신경섭;박용휘
    • 대한핵의학회지
    • /
    • 제28권3호
    • /
    • pp.338-342
    • /
    • 1994
  • 이상의 성적을 종합하여 보면, 강남성모병원 방사선과에 근무하는 정상성인 17인을 대상으로 앙와위에서 Tc-99m-DTPA 연무를 흡입시킨 후 측정한 Tc-99m -DTPA 폐제거율은 그 반감기가 평균 5$51{\pm}11.2$분이었고, 좌위에서 흡연시킨 후 측정한 다른 보고들과는 달리 폐하부에서 더 빨랐다.

  • PDF

$CaF_2$ 기전력법에 의한 용융아연 중 알루미늄 농도의 측정 (Measurement of Al Concentration in Liquid Zinc by E.M.F Method with $CaF_2$)

  • 박진성;김항수;정우광;;김종상
    • 전기화학회지
    • /
    • 제3권4호
    • /
    • pp.204-210
    • /
    • 2000
  • 용융아연 도금 강판 제조시 용융아연 도금 bath중의 알루미늄 농도를 조절하는 것은 매우 중요하다 본 연구의 목적은 용융아연 도금욕 중 알루미늄 농도를 신속하게 측정할 수 있는 센서 개발을 위한 기초 data를 제공하는 것이다. $CaF_2$고체전해질과 3가지 종류의 참조극을 사용하여 $460^{\circ}C\~500^{\circ}C$의 순수한 용융아연 bath에서 불소포텐샬을 측정하였다. 용융 아연 중 알루미늄의 농도를 측정하기 위하여 다음과 같은 불소 이온 농담전지 센서를 구성하였다. $$(-)W|Zn-Al,\;AlF_3|CaF_2|Bi,BiF_3|W(+)$$ 알루미늄의 농도가 $0.984wt\%$이하인 Zn-Al bath의 온도를 $460\pm10^{\circ}C$로 유지하고 상기의 알루미늄 농도 센서를 이용하여 기전력을 측정하였다. 측정된 기전력 값으로부터 최소 자승 회귀분석법을 이용하여, 다음과 같은 알루미늄 농도와 기전력과의 관계식을 얻었다. $$E/mV=56.795log[\%Al]+1881.7\;R=0.9704$$,$$0.026wt\%{\leq}[\%Al]{\leq}0.984wt\%$$

정비례/반비례, 상관관계의 도입 시기 및 내용 조직에 대한 교육과정 국제 비교 연구 (A Comparative Study of International Mathematics Curriculum on Time of Introduction and Content Organization for Direct and Inverse Proportions and Correlation)

  • 김화경;김선희;박경미;장혜원;이환철;이화영
    • 대한수학교육학회지:수학교육학연구
    • /
    • 제26권3호
    • /
    • pp.403-420
    • /
    • 2016
  • 2015 개정 수학과 교육과정에서 나타난 주요한 내용 변화 중의 하나는 정비례/반비례를 초등학교에서 중학교로 상향이동하고, 상관관계 관련 내용을 중학교에 추가한 것이다. 이런 변화를 결정하는 데 중요한 근거 자료가 된 것이 국제 비교 결과이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 미국, 영국, 프랑스, 핀란드, 호주, 일본, 싱가포르, 중국, 대만을 대상국으로 정하고, 정비례/반비례와 상관관계를 어느 시기에 어떤 범위에서 다루는지 조사하였다. 더불어 교육과정 내용 조직의 특성을 분석하는 틀로 수직적 계열성, 수평적 계열성, 외적 연결성, 내적 연결성의 네 가지 기준을 설정한 후 이에 기초하여 정비례/반비례와 상관관계 관련 내용을 비교 분석하였다. 연구결과 대부분의 국가가 정비례/반비례를 중학교에서 도입하거나 초등학교에서 도입한 후 중학교에서 심화시키는 방식을 따르고 있으며, 내용 조직의 특성 기준을 비교적 충실히 만족시키고 있다. 상관관계는 핀란드를 제외한 모든 국가가 고등학교 내용으로 포함시키고 있으며, 대부분 상관계수, 회귀직선, 최소제곱법 등 관련 개념들을 소개하면서 다양한 맥락에서 다루고 있었다.

틸트 로터형 항공기의 플랩퍼론 연결부에 대한 크리깅 기반 피로해석 (Fatigue Analysis based on Kriging for Flaperon Joint of Tilt Rotor Type Aircraft)

  • 박영철;장병욱;임종빈;이정진;이수용;박정선
    • 한국항공우주학회지
    • /
    • 제36권6호
    • /
    • pp.541-549
    • /
    • 2008
  • 피로해석은 반복하중 하에서의 항공우주 구조물에 대한 구조적 파괴를 예방하기 위해 수행된다. 본 논문에서는 틸트로터형 무인 항공기에 대하여 피로수명에 대한 평가를 하였다. 먼저 틸트로터형 무인항공기의 기동에 맞는 하중 스펙트럼을 생성해 내었으며, F.C.L. 부품중 하나인 플랩퍼론 연결부위에 대하여 피로해석을 수행 하였다. 틸트로터형 무인항공기는 크게 두 가지 기동 형태로 나눌 수 있는데, 이 착륙시의 헬리콥터 형태와 순항시의 고정익 형태가 되겠다. 전체적인 피로하중 스펙트럼을 만들기 위해서 헬리콥터 형태에는 FELIX를, 고정익 형태에서는 TWIST를 사용하였다. 한편으로는, S-N 실험점이 해석에 사용될 때 재료수명의 전 영역에 대한 S-N 회귀식을 얻기 위하여 크리깅 메타 모델이 사용되었다. 그리고 최소 자승법을 이용한 이차 회귀식에 대한 S-N 커브 역시 생성하였다. 더욱이 이 커브들이 갖고 있는 정확도를 측정하기 위하여 결정 계수법을 사용하였다. 마지막으로는 플랩퍼론 연결 부위에 대한 피로수명 결과를 MSC. Fatigue와 비교하였다.