• 지능정보연구
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

주식시장의 주가 수익률에 나타나는 변동성은 투자 위험의 척도로서 재무관리의 이론적 모형에서뿐만 아니라 포트폴리오 최적화, 증권의 가격 평가 및 위험관리 등 투자 실무 영역에서도 매우 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 변동성은 주가 수익률이 평균을 중심으로 얼마나 큰 폭의 움직임을 보이는가를 판단하는 지표로서 보통 수익률의 표준편차로 측정한다. 관찰 가능한 표준편차는 과거의 주가 움직임에서 측정되는 역사적 변동성(historical volatility)이다. 역사적 변동성이 미래의 주가 수익률의 변동성을 예측하려면 변동성이 시간 불변적(time-invariant)이어야 한다. 그러나 대부분의 변동성 연구들은 변동성이 시간 가변적(time-variant)임을 보여주고 있다. 이에 따라 시간 가변적 변동성을 예측하기 위한 여러 계량 모형들이 제안되었다. Engle(1982)은 변동성의 시간 가변적 특성을 잘 반영하는 변동성 모형인 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity(ARCH)를 제안하였으며, Bollerslev(1986) 등은 일반화된 ARCH(GARCH) 모형으로 발전시켰다. GARCH 모형의 실증 분석 연구들은 실제 증권 수익률에 나타나는 두터운 꼬리 분포 특성과 변동성의 군집현상(clustering)을 잘 설명하고 있다. 일반적으로 GARCH 모형의 모수는 가우스분포로부터 추출된 자료에서 최적의 성과를 보이는 로그우도함수에 대한 최우도추정법에 의하여 추정되고 있다. 그러나 1987년 소위 블랙먼데이 이후 주식 시장은 점점 더 복잡해지고 시장 변수들이 많은 잡음(noise)을 띠게 됨에 따라 변수의 분포에 대한 엄격한 가정을 요구하는 최우도추정법의 대안으로 인공지능모형에 대한 관심이 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 주식 시장의 주가 수익률에 나타나는 변동성의 예측 모형인 GARCH 모형의 모수추정방법으로 지능형 시스템인 Support Vector Regression 방법을 제안한다. SVR은 Vapnik에 의해 제안된 Support Vector Machines와 같은 원리를 회귀분석으로 확장한 모형으로서 Vapnik의 e-insensitive loss function을 이용하여 비선형 회귀식의 추정이 가능해졌다. SVM을 이용한 회귀식 SVR은 두터운 꼬리 분포를 보이는 주식시장의 변동성과 같은 관찰치에서도 우수한 추정 성능을 보인다. 2차 손실함수를 사용하는 기존의 최소자승법은 부최적해로서 추정 오차가 확대될 수 있다. Vapnik의 손실함수에서는 입실론 범위내의 예측 오차는 무시하고 큰 예측 오차만 손실로 처리하기 때문에 구조적 위험의 최소화를 추구하게 된다. 금융 시계열 자료를 분석한 많은 연구들은 SVR의 우수성을 보여주고 있다. 본 연구에서는 주가 변동성의 분석 대상으로서 KOSPI 200 주가지수를 사용한다. KOSPI 200 주가지수는 한국거래소에 상장된 우량주 중 거래가 활발하고 업종을 대표하는 200 종목으로 구성된 업종 대표주들의 포트폴리오이다. 분석 기간은 2010년부터 2015년까지의 6년 동안이며, 거래일의 일별 주가지수 종가 자료를 사용하였고 수익률 계산은 주가지수의 로그 차분값으로 정의하였다. KOSPI 200 주가지수의 일별 수익률 자료의 실증분석을 통해 기존의 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 방법과 본 논문이 제안하는 지능형 변동성 예측 모형의 예측성과를 비교하였다. 주가지수 수익률의 일별 자료 중 학습구간에서 대칭 GARCH 모형과 E-GARCH, GJR-GARCH와 같은 비대칭 GARCH 모형에 대하여 모수를 추정하고, 검증 구간 데이터에서 변동성 예측의 성과를 비교하였다. 전체 분석기간 1,487일 중 학습 기간은 1,187일, 검증 기간은 300일 이다. MLE 추정 방법의 실증분석 결과는 기존의 많은 연구들과 비슷한 결과를 보여주고 있다. 잔차의 분포는 정규분포보다는 Student t분포의 경우 더 우수한 모형 추정 성과를 보여주고 있어, 주가 수익률의 비정규성이 잘 반영되고 있다고 할 수 있다. MSE 기준으로, SVR 추정의 변동성 예측에서는 polynomial 커널함수를 제외하고 linear, radial 커널함수에서 MLE 보다 우수한 예측 성과를 보여주었다. DA 지표에서는 radial 커널함수를 사용한 SVR 기반의 지능형 GARCH 모형이 가장 우수한 변동성의 변화 방향에 대한 방향성 예측력을 보여주었다. 추정된 지능형 변동성 모형을 이용하여 예측된 주식 시장의 변동성 정보가 경제적 의미를 갖는지를 검토하기 위하여 지능형 변동성 거래 전략을 도출하였다. 지능형 변동성 거래 전략 IVTS의 진입규칙은 내일의 변동성이 증가할 것으로 예측되면 변동성을 매수하고 반대로 변동성의 감소가 예상되면 변동성을 매도하는 전략이다. 만약 변동성의 변화 방향이 전일과 동일하다면 기존의 변동성 매수/매도 포지션을 유지한다. 전체적으로 SVR 기반의 GARCH 모형의 투자 성과가 MLE 기반의 GARCH 모형의 투자 성과보다 높게 나타나고 있다. E-GARCH, GJR-GARCH 모형의 경우는 MLE 기반의 GARCH 모형을 이용한 IVTS 전략은 손실이 나지만 SVR 기반의 GARCH 모형을 이용한 IVTS 전략은 수익으로 나타나고 있다. SVR 커널함수에서는 선형 커널함수가 더 좋은 투자 성과를 보여주고 있다. 선형 커널함수의 경우 투자 수익률이 +526.4%를 기록하고 있다. SVR 기반의 GARCH 모형을 이용하는 IVTS 전략의 경우 승률도 51.88%부터 59.7% 사이로 높게 나타나고 있다. 옵션을 이용하는 변동성 매도전략은 방향성 거래전략과 달리 하락할 것으로 예측된 변동성의 예측 방향이 틀려 변동성이 소폭 상승하거나 변동성이 하락하지 않고 제자리에 있더라도 옵션의 시간가치 요인 때문에 전체적으로 수익이 실현될 수도 있다. 정확한 변동성의 예측은 자산의 가격 결정뿐만 아니라 실제 투자에서도 높은 수익률을 얻을 수 있기 때문에 다양한 형태의 인공신경망을 활용하여 더 나은 예측성과를 보이는 변동성 예측 모형을 개발한다면 주식시장의 투자자들에게 좋은 투자 정보를 제공하게 될 것이다.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2013

소셜 네트워크는 사용자들의 공통된 관심사, 경험, 그리고 일상 생활들을 함께 공유하기 위해 소셜 네트워크 상 사람들을 서로 연결시켜주는 거대한 커뮤니케이션 플랫폼이다. 소셜 네트워크상의 사용자들은 포스팅, 댓글, 인스턴스 메시지, 게임, 소셜 이벤트 외에도 다양한 애플리케이션을 통해 다른 사용자들과 소통하고 개인 정보 관리하는데 많은 시간을 소비한다. 소셜 네트워크 상의 풍부한 사용자 정보는 추천시스템이 추천 성능을 향상시키기 위해 필요한 큰 잠재력이 되었다. 대부분의 사용자들은 어떤 상품을 구매하기 전 가까운 관계이거나 같은 성향을 가진 사람들의 의견을 반영하여 의사 결정을 하게 된다. 그러므로 소셜 네트워크에서의 사용자 관계는 추천시스템을 위한 사용자 선호도 예측을 효율적으로 높이는데 중요한 요소라 할 수 있다. 일부 연구자들은 소셜 네트워크에서의 사용자와 다른 사용자들 사이의 상호작용 즉, 소셜 관계(social relationship)와 같은 소셜 데이터가 추천시스템에서 추천의 질에 어떠한 영향을 미치는가를 연구하고 있다. 추천시스템은 아마존, 이베이, Last.fm과 같은 큰 규모의 전자상거래 사이트 또한 채택하여 사용되는 시스템으로, 추천시스템을 위한 방법으로는 협업적 여과 방법과 내용 기반 여과 방법이 있다. 협업적 여과 방법은 사용자들의 선호도 학습에 의해 사용자가 아직 평가하지 않은 아이템 중 선호할 수 있는 아이템을 정확하게 제안하기 위한 추천시스템 방법 중 하나이다. 협업적 여과는 사용자들의 데이터에 초점을 맞춘 방법으로 유사한 배경과 선호도를 가지는 사용자들로부터 정보를 수집하여 사용자들의 선호도 예측을 자동으로 발생시킨다. 특히 협업적 여과는 근접한 이웃 사용자들에 의해서 목적 사용자가 선호할 수 있는 아이템을 제시하는 것으로 유사한 이웃 사용자를 찾는 것이 중요하다. 좋은 이웃 사용자 발견은 사용자와 아이템을 고려하는 방법이 일반적이다. 각 사용자는 아이템 즉, 영화, 상품, 책 등에 자신의 선호도를 나타내기 위하여 평가 값을 입력하고, 시스템은 이를 바탕으로 사용자-평가 행렬을 구축한다. 이 사용자-평가 행렬은 목적 사용자와 유사하게 아이템을 평가한 사용자 그룹을 찾기 위한 것으로, 목적 사용자가 아직 평가하지 않은 아이템에 대하여 사용자-평가 매트릭스를 통해 그 평가 값을 예측한다. 현재 이 협업적 여과 방법은 전자상거래와 정보 검색에서 적용되어 개인화 시스템에 효율적으로 사용되고 있다. 하지만 초기 사용자 문제, 데이터 희박성 문제와 확장성 그리고 예측 정확도 향상 등 해결해야 할 과제가 여전히 남아 있다. 이러한 문제들을 해소하기 위해 많은 연구자들은 하이브리드, 신뢰기반, 소셜 네트워크 기반 협업적 여과와 같은 다양한 방법을 제안하였다. 본 논문에서는 전통적인 협업적 여과 방식의 예측 정확도와 추천 성능을 향상시키기 위해 소셜 네트워크에 존재하는 소셜 관계를 이용한 협업적 여과 시스템을 제안한다. 소셜 관계는 소셜 네트워크 서비스 중 하나인 페이스북 사용자들이 남긴 포스팅과 사용자의 소셜 네트워크 친구와 의견 교류 중 남긴 코멘트와 같은 사용자 행동을 기반으로 정의된다. 소셜 관계를 구축하기 위해 소셜 네트워크 사용자의 포스팅과 댓글을 추출하고, 추출된 텍스트에 불용어 및 특수 기호 제거와 스테밍 등 전처리를 수행하였다. 특징 벡터는 TF-IDF를 이용하여 전처리된 텍스트에 나타난 각 단어에 대한 특징 점수를 계산함으로써 구축된다. 본 논문에서 이웃 사용자를 결정하기 위해 사용되는 사용자 간 유사도는 특징 벡터를 이용한 사용자 행동 유사도와 사용자의 영화 평가를 기반으로 한 전통적 방법의 유사도를 결합하여 계산된다. 제안하는 시스템은 목표 사용자와 제안한 방법을 통해 결정된 이웃 사용자 집단을 기반으로 목표 사용자가 평가하지 않은 아이템에 대한 선호도를 예측하고 Top-N 아이템을 선별하여 사용자에게 아이템을 추천하게 된다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 방법을 확인하고 평가하기 위하여 IMDB에서 제공하는 영화 정보 기반으로 영화 평가 시스템을 구축하였다. 예측 정확도를 평가하기 위해 MAE 값을 이용하여 제안하는 알고리즘이 얼마나 정확한 추천을 수행하는지에 대한 예측 정확도를 측정하였다. 그리고 정확도, 재현율 및 F1값 등을 활용하여 시스템의 성능을 평가하였으며, 시스템의 추천 품질은 커버리지를 이용하여 평가되었다. 실험 결과로부터 본 논문에서 제안한 시스템이 보다 더 정확하고 좋은 성능으로 사용자에게 아이템을 추천하는 것을 볼 수 있었다. 특히 소셜 네트워크에서 사용자 행동을 기반으로 한 소셜 관계를 이용함으로써 추천 정확도를 6% 향상시킴을 보였다. 또한 벤치마크 알고리즘과의 성능비교 실험을 통해 7% 향상된 추천 성능의 결과를 보여준다. 그러므로 사용자의 행동으로부터 관찰된 소셜 관계를 CF방법과 결합한 제안한 방법이 정확한 추천시스템을 위해 유용하며, 추천시스템의 성능과 품질을 향상시킬 수 있음을 알 수 있다.

• 대한한의학원전학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.211-250
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• 2007

1. The 'Kao Zheng Pai(考證派) comes from the 'Zhe Zhong Pai' and is a school that is influenced by the confucianism of the Qing dynasty. In Japan Inoue Kinga(井上金娥), Yoshida Koton(吉田篁墩) became central members, and the rise of the methodology of historical research(考證學) influenced the members of the 'Zhe Zhong Pai', and the trend of historical research changed from confucianism to medicine, making a school of medicine based on the study of texts and proving that the classics were right. 2. Based on the function of 'Nei Qu Li '(內驅力) the 'Kao Zheng Pai', in the spirit of 'use confucianism as the base', researched letters, meanings and historical origins. Because they were influenced by the methodology of historical research(考證學) of the Qing era, they valued the evidential research of classic texts, and there was even one branch that did only historical research, the 'Rue Xue Kao Zheng Pai'(儒學考證派). Also, the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai'(醫學考證派) appeared by the influence of Yoshida Kouton and Kariya Ekisai(狩谷掖齋). 3. In the 'Kao Zheng Pai(考證派)'s theories and views the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai' did not look at medical scriptures like the "Huang Di Nei Jing"("黃帝內經") and did not do research on 'medical' related areas like acupuncture, the meridian and medicinal herbs. Since they were doctors that used medicine, they naturally were based on 'formulas'(方劑) and since their thoughts were based on the historical ideologies, they valued the "Shang Han Ja Bing Lun" which was revered as the 'ancestor of all formulas'(衆方之祖). 4. The lives of the important doctors of the 'Kao Zheng Pai' Meguro Dotaku(目黑道琢) Yamada Seichin(山田正珍), Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣), Mori Ritsi(森立之) Kitamura Naohara(喜多村直寬) are as follows. 1) Meguro Dotaku(目黑道琢 1739${\sim}$1798) was born of lowly descent but, using his intelligence and knowledge, became a professor as a Shi Jing Yi(市井醫) and as a professor for 34 years at Ji Shou Guan mastered the "Huang Di Nei Jing" after giving over 300 lectures. Since his pupil, Isawara Ken taught the Lan Men Wu Zhe(蘭門五哲) and Shibue Chusai, Mori Ritsi(森立之), Okanishi Gentei(岡西玄亭), Kiyokawa Gendoh(淸川玄道) and Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣), Meguro Dotaku is considered the founder of the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai'. 2) The family of Yamada Seichin(山田正珍 1749${\sim}$1787) had been medical officials in the Makufu(幕府) and the many books that his ancestors had left were the base of his art. Seichin learned from Shan Ben Bei Shan(山本北山), a 'Zhe Zhong Pai' scholar, and put his efforts into learning, teaching and researching the "Shang Han Lun"("傷寒論"). Living in a time between 'Gu Fang Pai'(古方派) member Nakanishi Goretada(中西惟忠) and 'Kao Zheng Pai' member Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡), he wrote 11 books, 2 of which express his thoughts and research clearly, the "Shang Han Lun Ji Cheng"("傷寒論集成") and "Shang Han Kao"("傷寒考"). His comparison of the 'six meridians'(3 yin, 3 yang) between the "Shang Han Lun" and the "Su Wen Re Lun"("素問 熱論) and his acknowledgement of the need and rationality of the concept of Yin-Yang and Deficient-Replete distinguishes him from the other 'Gu Fang Pai'. Also, his dissertation of the need for the concept doesn't use the theories of latter schools but uses the theory of the "Shang Han Lun" itself. He even researched the historical parts, such as terms like 'Shen Nong Chang Bai Cao'(神農嘗百草) and 'Cheng Qi Tang'(承氣湯) 3) The ancestor of Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣) was a court physician, and learned confucianism from Kao Zheng Pai 's Ashikawa Genan(朝川善庵) and medicine from Isawa Ranken and Taki Motokata(多紀元堅), and the secret to smallpox from Ikeda Keisui(池田京水). He later became a lecturer at the Edo Yi Xue Guan(醫學館) and was invited as the director to the Ji Zhong(濟衆) hospital. He also became the first owner of the Wen Zhi She(溫知社), whose main purpose was the revival of kampo, and launched the monthly magazine Wen Zi Yi Tan(溫知醫談). He also diagnosed and prescribed for the prince Ming Gong(明宮). His works include the "Jing Fang Bian"("經方辨"), "Shang Han Lun Si Ci"("傷寒論釋司"), "Huang Zhao Zhu Jia Zhi Yan Ji Yao"("皇朝諸家治驗集要") and "Shang Han Ja Bing Lun Lei Juan"("傷寒雜病論類纂"). of these, the "Jing Fang Bian"("經方辨") states that the Shi Gao(石膏) used in the "Shang Han Lun" had three meanings-Fa Biao(發表), Qing Re(淸熱), Zi Yin(滋陰)-which were from 'symptoms', and first deducted the effects and then told of the reason. Another book, the "Jiu Zhe Tang Du Shu Ji"("九折堂讀書記") researched and translated the difficult parts of the "Shang Han Lun", "Jin Qui Yao Lue", "Qian Jin Fang"("千金方"), and "Wai Tai Mi Yao"("外臺秘要"). He usually analyzed the 'symptoms' of diseases but the composition, measurement, processing and application of medicine were all in the spectrum of 'analystic research' and 'researching analysis'. 4) The ancestors of Mori Rits(森立之 1807${\sim}$ 1885) were warriors but he became a doctor by the will of his mother, and he learned from Shibue Chosai(澁江抽齋) and Isawaran Ken and later became a pupil of Shou Gu Yi Zhai, a historical research scholar. He then became a lecturer of medical herbs at the Yi Xue Guan, and later participated in the proofreading of "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方") and with Chosai compiled the "Jing Ji Fang Gu Zhi"("神農本草經"). He visited the Chinese scholar Yang Shou Jing(楊守敬) in 1881 and exchanged books and ideas. Of his works, there are the collections(輯複本) of "Shen Nong Ben Cao Jing"(神農本草經) and "You Xiang Yi Hwa"("遊相醫話") and the records, notes, poems, and diaries such as "Zhi Yuan Man Lu"("枳園漫錄") and "Zhi Yuan Sui Bi"("枳園隨筆") that were not published. His thoughts were that in restoring the "Shen Nong Ben Cao Jing", "the herb to the doctor is like the "Shuo Wen Jie Zi"("說文解字") to the scholar", and he tried to restore the ancient herbal text using knowledge of medicine and investigation(考據). Also with Chosai he compiled the "Jing Ji Fang Gu Zhi"("經籍訪古志") using knowledge of ancient text. Ritzi left works on pure investigation, paid much attention to social problems, and through 12 years of poverty treated all people and animals in all branches of medicine, so he is called a 'half confucianist half doctor'(半儒半醫). 5) Kitamurana Ohira(喜多村直寬 1804${\sim}$1876) learned scriptures and ancient texts from confucian scholar Asaka Gonsai, and learned medicine from his father Huai Yaun(槐園). He became a teacher in the Yi Xue Guan in his middle ages, and to repay his country, he printed 266 volumes of "Yi Fang Lei Ju("醫方類聚") and 1000 volumes of "Tai Ping Yu Lan"("太平禦覽") and devoted it to his country to be spread. His works are about 40 volumes including "Jin Qui Yao Lue Shu Yi" and "Lao Yi Zhi Yan" but most of them are researches on the "Shang Han Za Bing Lun". In his "Shang Han Lun Shu Yi"("傷寒論疏義") he shows the concept of the six meridians through the Yin-Yang, Superficial or internal, cold or hot, deficient or replete state of diseases, but did not match the names with the six meridians of the meridian theory, and this has something in common with the research based on the confucianism of Song(宋儒). In clinical treatment he was positive toward old and new methods and also the experience of civilians, but was negative toward western medicine. 6) The ancestor of the Taki family Tanbano Yasuyori(丹波康賴 912-955) became a Yi Bo Shi(醫博士) by his medical skills and compiled the "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方"). His first son Tanbano Shigeaki(丹波重明) inherited the Shi Yao Yuan(施藥院) and the third son Tanbano Masatada(丹波雅忠) inherited the Dian You Tou(典藥頭). Masatada's descendents succeeded him for 25 generations until the family name was changed to Jin Bao(金保) and five generations later it was changed again to Duo Ji(多紀). The research scholar Taki Motohiro was in the third generation after the last name was changed to Taki, and his family kept an important part in the line of medical officers in Japan. Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡 1755-1810) was a teacher in the Yi Xue Guan where his father was residing, and became the physician for the general Jia Qi(家齊). He had a short temper and was not good at getting on in the world, and went against the will of the king and was banished from Ao Yi Shi(奧醫師). His most famous works, the "Shang Han Lun Ji Yi" and "Jin Qui Yao Lue Ji Yi" are the work of 20 years of collecting the theories of many schools and discussing, and is one of the most famous books on the "Shang Han Lun" in Japan. "Yi Sheng" is a collection of essays on research. Also there are the "Su Wen Shi"("素問識"), "Ling Shu Shi"("靈樞識"), and the "Guan lu Fang Yao Bu"("觀聚方要補"). Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡)'s position was succeeded by his third son Yuan Yin(元胤 1789-1827), and his works include works of research such as "Nan Jing Shu Jeng"("難經疏證"), "Ti Ya"("體雅"), "Yao Ya"("藥雅"), "Ji Ya"("疾雅"), "Ming Yi Gong An"("名醫公案"), and "Yi Ji Kao"("醫籍考"). The "Yi Ji Kao" is 80 volumes in length and lists about 3000 books on medicine in China before the Qing Dao Guang(道光), and under each title are the origin, number of volumes, state of existence, and, if possible, the preface, Ba Yu(跋語) and biography of the author. The younger sibling of Yuan Yin(元胤 1789-1827), Yuan Jian(元堅 1795-1857) expounded ancient writings at the Yi Xue Guan only after he reached middle age, was chosen for the Ao Yi Shi(奧醫師) and later became a Fa Yan(法眼), Fa Yin(法印) and Yu Chi(樂匙). He left about 15 texts, including "Su Wen Shao Shi"("素間紹識"), "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方"), published in school, "Za Bing Guang Yao"("雜病廣要"), "Shang Han Guang Yao"(傷寒廣要), and "Zhen Fu Yao Jue"("該腹要訣"). On the Taki family's founding and working of the Yi Xue Guan Yasuka Doumei(失數道明) said they were "the people who took the initiative in Edo era kampo medicine" and evaluated their deeds in the fields of 'research of ancient text', 'the founding of Ji Shou Guan and medical education', 'publication business', 'writing of medical text'. 5. The doctors of the 'Kao Zheng Pai ' based their operations on the Edo Yi Xue Guan, and made groups with people with similar ideas to them, making a relationship 'net'. For example the three families of Duo Ji(多紀), Tang Chuan(湯川) and Xi Duo Cun(喜多村) married and adopted with and from each other and made prefaces and epitaphs for each other. Thus, the Taki family, the state science of the Makufu, the tendency of thinking, one's own interests and glory, one's own knowledge, the need of the society all played a role in the development of kampo medicine in the 18th and 19th century.

• 동국한의학연구소논문집
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• 제10권
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• pp.1-40
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• 2008

1.The 'Kao Zheng Pai'(考證派) comes from the 'Zhe Zhong Pai(折衷派)' and is a school that is influenced by the confucianism of the Qing dynasty. In Japan Inoue Kinga(井上金峨), Yoshida Koton(古田篁墩 $1745{\sim}1798$) became central members, and the rise of the methodology of historical research(考證學) influenced the members of the 'Zhe Zhong Pai', and the trend of historical research changed from confucianism to medicine, making a school of medicine based on the study of texts and proving that the classics were right. 2. Based on the function of 'Nei Qu Li'(內驅力) the 'Kao Zheng Pai', in the spirit of 'use confucianism as the base', researched letters, meanings and historical origins. Because they were influenced by the methodology of historical research(考證學) of the Qing era, they valued the evidential research of classic texts, and there was even one branch that did only historical research, the 'Rue Xue Kao Zheng Pai'(儒學考證派). Also, the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai'(醫學考證派) appeared by the influence of Yoshida Kouton and Kariya Ekisai(狩谷掖齋). 3. In the 'Kao Zheng Pai(考證派)'s theories and views the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai' did not look at medical scriptures like the "Huang Di Nei Jing"("黃帝內經") and did not do research on 'medical' related areas like acupuncture, the meridian and medicinal herbs. Since they were doctors that used medicine, they naturally were based on 'formulas'(方劑) and since their thoughts were based on the historical ideologies, they valued the "Shang Han Ja Bing Lun" which was revered as the 'ancestor of all formulas'(衆方之祖). 4. The lives of the important doctors of the 'Kao Zheng Pai' Meguro Dotaku(目黑道琢) Yamada Seichin(山田正珍), Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣), Mori Ritsi(森立之) Kitamura Naohara(喜多村直寬) are as follows. 1) Meguro Dotaku(目黑道琢 $1739{\sim}1798$) was born of lowly descent but, using his intelligence and knowledge, became a professor as a Shi Jing Yi(市井醫) and as a professor for 34 years at Ji Shou Guan(躋壽館) mastered the "Huang Di Nei Jing" after giving over 300 lectures. Since his pupil, Isawara Ken(伊澤蘭軒) taught the Lan Men Wu Zhe(蘭門五哲) and Shibue Chusai(澀江抽齋), Mori Ritsi(森立之), Okanishi Gentei(岡西玄亭), Kiyokawa Gendoh(淸川玄道) and Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣), Meguro Dotaku is considered the founder of the 'Yi Xue Kao Zheng Pai'. 2) The family of Yamada Seichin(山田正珍 $1749{\sim}1787$) had been medical officials in the Makufu(幕府) and the many books that his ancestors had left were the base of his art. Seichin learned from Shan Ben Bei Shan(山本北山), a 'Zhe Zhong Pai' scholar, and put his efforts into learning, teaching and researching the "Shang Han Lun"("傷寒論"). Living in a time between 'Gu Fang Pai'(古方派) member Nakanishi Goretada(中西惟忠) and 'Kao Zheng Pai' member Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡), he wrote 11 books, 2 of which express his thoughts and research clearly, the "Shang Han Lun Ji Cheng"("傷寒論集成") and "Shang Han Kao"("傷寒考"). His comparison of the 'six meridians'(3 yin, 3 yang) between the "Shang Han Lun" and the "Su Wen Re Lun"("素問 熱論") and his acknowledgement of the need and rationality of the concept of Yin-Yang and Deficient-Replete distinguishes him from the other 'Gu Fang Pai'. Also, his dissertation of the need for the concept doesn't use the theories of latter schools but uses the theory of the "Shang Han Lun" itself. He even researched the historical parts, such as terms like 'Shen Nong Chang Bai Cao'(神農嘗百草) and 'Cheng Qi Tang'(承氣湯). 3) The ancestor of Yamada Kyoko(山田業廣) was a court physician, and learned confucianism from Kao Zheng Pai's Ashikawa Genan(朝川善庵) and medicine from Isawa Ranken(伊澤蘭軒) and Taki Motokata(多紀元堅), and the secret to smallpox from Ikeda Keisui(池田京水). He later became a lecturer at the Edo Yi Xue Guan(醫學館) and was invited as the director to the Ji Zhong(濟衆) hospital. He also became the first owner of the Wen Zhi She(溫知社), whose main purpose was the revival of kampo, and launched the monthly magazine Wen Zi Yi Tan(溫知醫談). He also diagnosed and prescribed for the prince Ming Gong(明宮). His works include the "Jing Fang Bian"("經方辨"), "Shang Han Lun Si Ci"("傷寒論釋詞"), "Huang Zhao Zhu Jia Zhi Yan Ji Yao"("皇朝諸家治驗集要") and "Shang Han Ja Bing Lun Lei Juan"("傷寒雜病論類纂"). of these, the "Jing Fang Bian"("經方辨") states that the Shi Gao(石膏) used in the "Shang Han Lun" had three meanings-Fa Biao(發表), Qing Re(淸熱), Zi Yin(滋陰)-which were from 'symptoms', and first deducted the effects and then told of the reason. Another book, the "Jiu Zhe Tang Du Shu Ji"("九折堂讀書記") researched and translated the difficult parts of the "Shang Han Lun", "Jin Qui Yao Lue"("金匱要略"), "Qian Jin Fang"("千金方"), and "Wai Tai Mi Yao"("外臺秘要"). He usually analyzed the 'symptoms' of diseases but the composition, measurement, processing and application of medicine were all in the spectrum of 'analystic research' and 'researching analysis'. 4) The ancestors of Mori Ritsi(森立之 $1807{\sim}1885$) were warriors but he became a doctor by the will of his mother, and he learned from Shibue Chosai(澁江抽齋) and Isawaran Ken(伊澤蘭軒) and later became a pupil of Shou Gu Yi Zhai(狩谷掖齋), a historical research scholar. He then became a lecturer of medical herbs at the Yi Xue Guan, and later participated in the proofreading of "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方") and with Chosai compiled the "Jing Ji Fang Gu Zhi"("經籍訪古志"). He visited the Chinese scholar Yang Shou Jing(楊守敬) in 1881 and exchanged books and ideas. Of his works, there are the collections(輯複本) of "Shen Nong Ben Cao Jing"("神農本草經") and "You Xiang Yi Hwa"("遊相醫話") and the records, notes, poems, and diaries such as "Zhi Yuan Man Lu"("枳園漫錄") and "Zhi Yuan Sui Bi"(枳園隨筆) that were not published. His thoughts were that in restoring the "Shen Nong Ben Cao Jing", "the herb to the doctor is like the "Shuo Wen Jie Zi"(說文解字) to the scholar", and he tried to restore the ancient herbal text using knowledge of medicine and investigation(考據), Also with Chosai he compiled the "Jing Ji Fang Gu Zhi"("經籍訪古志") using knowledge of ancient text. Ritzi left works on pure investigation, paid much attention to social problems, and through 12 years of poverty treated all people and animals in all branches of medicine, so he is called a 'half confucianist half doctor'(半儒半醫). 5) Kitamurana Ohira(喜多村直寬, $1804{\sim}1876$) learned scriptures and ancient texts from confucian scholar Asaka Gonsai(安積艮齋), and learned medicine from his father Huai Yaun(槐園), He became a teacher in the Yi Xue Guan in his middle ages, and to repay his country, he printed 266 volumes of "Yi Fang Lei Ju"("醫方類聚") and 1000 volumes of "Tai Ping Yu Lan"("太平禦覽") and devoted it to his country to be spread. His works are about 40 volumes including "Jin Qui Yao Lue Shu Yi"("金匱要略疏義") and "Lao Yi Zhi Yan"(老醫巵言) but most of them are researches on the "Shang Han Za Bing Lun". In his "Shang Han Lun Shu Yi"("傷寒論疏義") he shows the concept of the six meridians through the Yin-Yang, Superficial or internal, cold or hot, deficient or replete state of diseases, but did not match the names with the six meridians of the meridian theory, and this has something in common with the research based on the confucianism of Song(宋儒). In clinical treatment he was positive toward old and new methods and also the experience of civilians, but was negative toward western medicine. 6) The ancestor of the Taki family Tanbano Yasuyori(丹波康賴 $912{\sim}955$) became a Yi Bo Shi(醫博士) by his medical skills and compiled the "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方"). His first son Tanbano Shigeaki(丹波重明) inherited the Shi Yao Yuan(施藥院) and the third son Tanbano Masatada(丹波雅忠) inherited the Dian You Tou(典藥頭). Masatada's descendents succeeded him for 25 generations until the family name was changed to Jin Bao(金保) and five generations later it was changed again to Duo Ji(多紀). The research scholar Taki Motohiro was in the third generation after the last name was changed to Taki, and his family kept an important part in the line of medical officers in Japan. Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡 $1755{\sim}1810$) was a teacher in the Yi Xue Guan where his father was residing, and became the physician for the general Jia Qi(家齊). He had a short temper and was not good at getting on in the world, and went against the will of the king and was banished from Ao Yi Shi(奧醫師). His most famous works, the "Shang Han Lun Ji Yi"("傷寒論輯義") and "Jin Qui Yao Lue Ji Yi"("金匱要略輯義") are the work of 20 years of collecting the theories of many schools and discussing, and is one of the most famous books on the "Shang Han Lun" in Japan. "Yi Sheng"("醫勝") is a collection of essays on research. Also there are the "Su Wen Shi"(素問識), "Ling Shu Shi"("靈樞識"), and the "Guan Ju Fang Yao Bu"("觀聚方要補"). Taki Motohiro(多紀元簡)'s position was succeeded by his third son Yuan Yin(元胤 $1789{\sim}1827$), and his works include works of research such as "Nan Jing Shu Jeng"(難經疏證), "Ti Ya"("體雅"), "Yao Ya"("藥雅"), "Ji Ya"(疾雅), "Ming Yi Gong An"(名醫公案), and "Yi Ji Kao"(醫籍考). The "Yi Ji Kao" is 80 volumes in length and lists about 3000 books on medicine in China before the Qing Dao Guang(道光), and under each title are the origin, number of volumes, state of existence, and, if possible, the preface, Ba Yu(跋語) and biography of the author. The younger sibling of Yuan Yin(元胤 $1789{\sim}1827$), Yuan Jian(元堅 $1795{\sim}1857$) expounded ancient writings at the Yi Xue Guan only after he reached middle age, was chosen for the Ao Yi Shi(奧醫師) and later became a Fa Yan(法眼), Fa Yin(法印) and Yu Chi(禦匙). He left about 15 texts, including "Su Wen Shao Shi"("素問紹識"), "Yi Xin Fang"("醫心方"), published in school, "Za Bing Guang Yao"("雜病廣要"), "Shang Han Guang Yao"("傷寒廣要"), and "Zhen Fu Yao Jue"("診腹要訣"). On the Taki family's founding and working of the Yi Xue Guan Yasuka Doumei(矢數道明) said they were "the people who took the initiative in Edo era kampo medicine" and evaluated their deeds in the fields of 'research of ancient text', the founding of Ji Shou Guan(躋壽館) and medical education', 'publication business', 'writing of medical text'. 5. The doctors of the 'Kao Zheng Pai' based their operations on the Edo Yi Xue Guan, and made groups with people with similar ideas to them, making a relationship 'net'. For example the three families of Duo Ji(多紀), Tang Chuan(湯川) and Xi Duo Cun(喜多村) married and adopted with and from each other and made prefaces and epitaphs for each other. Thus, the Taki family, the state science of the Makufu, the tendency of thinking, one's own interests and glory, one's own knowledge, the need of the society all played a role in the development of kampo medicine in the 18th and 19th century.