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Economic Sanction and DPRK Trade - Estimating the Impact of Japan's Sanction in the 2000s - (대북 경제제재와 북한무역 - 2000년대 일본 대북제재의 영향력 추정 -)

  • Lee, Suk
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.93-143
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    • 2010
  • This paper estimates the impact of Japan's economic sanction on DPRK trade in the 2000s. It conceptualizes the effects of sanction on DPRK trade, econometrically tests whether such effects exist in case of Japan's sanction using currently available DPRK trade statistics, and measures the size of the effects by correcting and reconfiguring the deficiencies of the currently available DPRK trade statistics. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, Japan's sanction can have two different effects on DPRK trade: 'Sanction Country Effect' and "Third Country Effect.' The former means that the sanction diminishes DPRK trade with Japan while the latter refers to the effects on DPRK trade with other countries as well. The third country effect can arise not simply because the DPRK changes its trade routes to circumvent the sanction, but because the sanction forces the DPRK to readjust its major trade items and patterns. Second, currently no official DPRK trade statistics are available. Thus, the so-called mirror data referring to DPRK trading partners' statistics should be employed for the analysis of the sanction effects. However, all currently available mirror data suffer from three fundamental problems: 1) they may omit the real trade partners of the DPRK; 2) they may confuse ROK trade with DPRK trade; 3) they cannot distinguish non-commercial trade from commercial trade, whereas only the latter concerns Japan's sanction. Considering those problems, we have to adopt the following method in order to reach a reasonable conclusion about the sanction effect. That is, we should repeat the same analysis using all different mirror data currently available, which include KOTRA, IMF and UN Commodity Trade Statistics, and then discuss only the common results from them. Third, currently available mirror data make the following points. 1) DPRK trade is well explained by the gravity model. 2) Japan's sanction has not only the sanction country effect but also the third country effect on DPRK trade. 3) The third country effect occurs differently on DPRK export and import. In case of export, the mirror statistics reveal positive (+) third country effects on all of the major trade partners of the DPRK, including South Korea, China and Thailand. However, on DPRK import, such third country effects are not statistically significant even for South Korea and China. 4) This suggests that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import rather than its export. Fourth, as far as DPRK export is concerned, it is possible to resolve the abovementioned fundamental problems of mirror data and thus reconstruct more accurate statistics on DPRK trade. Those reconstructed statistics lead us to following conclusions. 1) Japan's economic sanction diminished DPRK's export to Japan from 2004 to 2006 by 103 million dollars on annual average (Sanction Country Effect). It comprises around 60 percent of DPRK's export to Japan in 2003. 2) However, for the same period, the DPRK diverted its exports to other countries to cope up with Japan's sanction, and as a result its export to other countries increased by 85 million dollars on annual average (Third Country Effect). 3) This means that more than 80 per cent of the sanction country effect was made up for by the third country effect. And the actual size of impact that Japan's sanction made on DPRK export in total was merely 30 million dollars on annual average. 4) The third country effect occurred mostly in inter-Korean trade. In fact, Japan's sanction increased DPRK export to the ROK by 72 million dollars on annual average. In contrast, there was no statistically significant increase in DPRK export to China caused by Japan's sanction. 5) It means that the DPRK confronted Japan's sanction and mitigated its impact primarily by using inter-Korean trade and thus the ROK. Fifth, two things should be noted concerning the fourth results above. 1) The results capture the third country effect caused only by trade transfer. Facing Japan's sanction, the DPRK could transfer its existing trade with Japan to other countries. Also it could change its main export items and increase the export of those new items to other countries as mentioned in the first result. However, the fourth results above reflect only the former, not the latter. 2) Although Japan's sanction did not make a huge impact on DPRK export, it might not be necessarily true for DPRK import. Indeed the currently available mirror statistics suggest that Japan's sanction has greater effects on DPRK import. Hence it would not be wise to argue that Japan's sanction did not have much impact on DPRK trade in general, simply using the fourth result above.

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Distributors' Preference for the Flextime System (유통업체 종사자의 유동근무제에 대한 선호성향에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Won-Haeng
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2012
  • The "flextime" system, which was initially designed to maintain a balance between work and personal life, has recently received much attention as an alternative form of work, enabling employees to fully exert their creativity. Most studies show that the effects of flextime on performance, productivity, attitude toward the organization, absenteeism, and turnover differ between managerial and non-managerial workers. This suggests that workers' personal characteristics affect their preference for flextime by directly or indirectly influencing its result variables. As most Korean companies have not adopted the flextime system, little research has been conducted on it in Korea. Recently, Korean companies have been discussing flextime as one of several measures for enhancing international competitiveness. Therefore, this study aims to offer a theoretical framework for the introduction of the system by analyzing the effects of the precedent factors on the preference for flextime. Though not statistically significant, a higher preference for flextime is noted among workers over the age of 36. Older workers usually are more conservative and less adaptable to change but here the older Korean workers may be anxious and resistant. Additional research on workers in different types of businesses using improved research methods will lead to more meaningful results. Married workers display a lower preference to flextime than single workers. In Korea, the current atmosphere focused on a happy home encourages married workers to prefer regular work hours, enabling them to go to and from work on a regular schedule. This means that normal working hours, from morning to evening, are preferred as it is the most suitable system for families. However, this is not so in the case of single workers. Unmarried singles tend to prefer flextime for investing in self-development toward future prosperity, over the benefits of regular working-hours. Flextime is designed to meet their needs to some extent as it is helpful in maintaining a balance between work life and self-development. If flextime is selected, workers can spend mornings on self-development and work in the afternoons. Therefore, when flextime is introduced in Korea, it would be desirable to start with unmarried workers, to increase corporate creativity and productivity and develop individual potential. In particular, when the five-day workweek, the main concern for companies and labor unions, is adopted, synergy with flextime could be expected and a gradual implementation of flextime will be effective. Gender difference shows similar results to marital status with male workers displaying a higher preference for flextime. It is inferred that male workers' attitudes toward flextime are more favorable than female workers' because flextime enables self-development and work life to coexist. A relatively weak, though statistically significant, correlation exists between control position and flextime preference with inner-control-oriented workers displaying favorable attitudes toward flextime. Generally, inner-control-oriented workers tend to attribute the consequences caused by any person or partner relationship to themselves. Thus, when a new system is introduced they are likely to have less reluctance and fear than outer-control-oriented workers, because they think it is important to deal with the new system. A weak but slight correlation exists between the desire for achievement and flextime preference. People who have a higher desire for achievement are willing to consider the new system, especially if significant success is reasonably expected. This result is derived from a reasonable judgment that flextime offers an individual the time for self-development while the organization benefits from the resulting creativity and performance enhancements. Although not the primary analysis, a high correlation is found between control position and the desire for achievement, which is consistent with the results of previous research. The regression analysis not only supports the preceding ANOVA and correlation analysis but also shows the existence of a causal relationship. Married workers have a weak preference for flextime, which is consistent with the results of the preceding ANOVA. Relative to men, women have a weak preference for flextime. No statistically significant correlation was noticed for age. Inner-control-oriented workers prefer flextime more than outer-control-oriented workers as the former view the consequences of change to be their own responsibility. However, the preference for flextime seems to be weak. As expected, people with a higher desire for achievement have a stronger preference for flextime, presumably because the greater the desire for achievement, the stronger the spirit of challenging an uncertain future. No significant correlation exists between job satisfaction and flextime preference.

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The Jurisdictional Precedent Analysis of Medical Dispute in Dental Field (치과임상영역에서 발생된 의료분쟁의 판례분석)

  • Kwon, Byung-Ki;Ahn, Hyoung-Joon;Kang, Jin-Kyu;Kim, Chong-Youl;Choi, Jong-Hoon
    • Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.283-296
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    • 2006
  • Along with the development of scientific technologies, health care has been growing remarkably, and as the social life quality improves with increasing interest in health, the demand for medical service is rapidly increasing. However, medical accident and medical dispute also are rapidly increasing due to various factors such as, increasing sense of people's right, lack of understanding in the nature of medical practice, over expectation on medical technique, commercialize medical supply system, moral degeneracy and unawareness of medical jurisprudence by doctors, widespread trend of mutual distrust, and lack of systematized device for solution of medical dispute. This study analysed 30 cases of civil suit in the year between 1994 to 2004, which were selected among the medical dispute cases in dental field with the judgement collected from organizations related to dentistry and department of oral medicine, Yonsei university dental hospital. The following results were drawn from the analyses: 1. The distribution of year showed rapid increase of medical dispute after the year 2000. 2. In the types of medical dispute, suit associated with tooth extraction took 36.7% of all. 3. As for the cause of medical dispute, uncomfortable feeling and dissatisfaction with the treatment showed 36.7%, death and permanent damage showed 16.7% each. 4. Winning the suit, compulsory mediation and recommendation for settlement took 60.0% of judgement result for the plaintiff. 5. For the type of medical organization in relation to medical dispute, 60.0% was found to be the private dental clinics, and 30.0% was university dental hospitals. 6. For the level of trial, dispute that progressed above 2 or 3 trials was of 30.0%. 7. For the amount of claim for damage, the claim amounting between 50 million to 100 million won was of 36.7%, and that of more than 100 million won was 13.3%, and in case of the judgement amount, the amount ranging from 10 million to 30 million won was of 40.0%, and that of more than 100 million won was of 6.7%. 8. For the number of dentist involved in the suit, 26.7% was of 2 or more dentists. 9. For the amount of time spent until the judgement, 46.7% took 11 to 20 months, and 36.7% took 21 to 30 months. 10. For medical malpractice, 46.7% was judged to be guilty, and 70% of the cases had undergone medical judgement or verification of the case by specialists during the process of the suit. 11. In the lost cases of doctors(18 cases), 72.2% was due to violence of carefulness in practice and 16.7% was due to missing of explanation to patient. Medical disputes occurring in the field of dentistry are usually of relatively less risky cases. Hence, the importance of explanation to patient is emphasized, and since the levels of patient satisfaction are subjective, improvement of the relationship between the patient and the dentist and recovery of autonomy within the group dentist are essential in addition to the reduction of technical malpractice. Moreover, management measure against the medical dispute should be set up through complement of the current doctors and hospitals medical malpractice insurance which is being conducted irrationally, and establishment of system in which education as well as consultation for medical disputes lead by the group of dental clinicians and academic scholars are accessible.

Different Perceptions, Knowledge, and Attitudes of Elementary, Middle, and High School Students regarding Irradiated Food, Nuclear Power Generation, and Medical Radiation (초, 중, 고등학생의 방사선조사식품, 원자력발전, 의료방사선에 대한 인식, 지식, 태도 차이)

  • Han, Eun Ok;Kim, Jae Rok;Choi, Yoon Seok
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.118-126
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    • 2014
  • A survey was conducted on perceptions, knowledge, and attitudes of elementary, middle, and high school students, who will lead public opinion in the future, regarding irradiated food, nuclear power generation, and medical radiation. These topics urgently require general social acceptability among various fields in which radiation is used. Educational methods to enhance social acceptability were partially discovered. First, it is necessary to implement different strategies when designing courses for female and male students. Male students have higher levels of objective knowledge (p<0.039) of irradiated food, necessity (p<0.001) and objective knowledge (p<0.001) of nuclear power generation, approval of building a nuclear power plant in the nation (p<0.001), necessity (p<0.001) and objective knowledge (p<0.001) of medical radiation, and attitudes regarding using medical radiation (p<0.007, p<0.001). Second, the educational effect of explanations to help increase national understanding of the necessity and safety of nuclear power generation will increase if information on the necessity and safety of medical radiation is provided as well. Both male and female students perceived that medical radiation is the most necessary (p<0.001), medical radiation is the safest (p<0.001), and nuclear power generation is the least safe (p<0.013). Moreover, the correlation between medical radiation and nuclear power generation was the highest. Third, there is a need for different lectures between classes, since the patterns of perception vary according to the field of radiation use among elementary, middle, and high school students. Elementary school students had high interest in education on nuclear power generation (p<0.005), perceived that irradiated food is safe (p<0.001), and had the most positive attitude toward consuming irradiated food (p<0.001). Middle school students had high interest in education on nuclear power generation (p<0.018), perceived that nuclear power generation (p<0.001) and medical radiation (p<0.002) are safe, and had the most positive attitude toward using radiation for treatment (p<0.001). High school students had the highest level of objective knowledge on nuclear power generation (p<0.001) and medical radiation (p<0.001), and perceived that medical radiation is the most necessary (p<0.017); however, they perceived that nuclear power generation is the least safe (p<0.001). Attitudes toward irradiated food intake (p<0.001) and approving construction of a nuclear power plant in their neighborhood (p<0.001) were both low. Fourth, it is necessary to provide educational programs to change perceptions and improve attitudes rather than providing education focused on objective knowledge. There was no correlation between objective knowledge and necessity of irradiated food, objective knowledge and safety and interest in education on nuclear power generation, and objective knowledge and interest in education and information acquirement regarding medical radiation. In particular, high school students had the highest level of objective knowledge and yet had the least positive attitudes toward approving construction of nuclear power plants in their neighborhood and intake of irradiated food. Therefore, to increase the social acceptability of using nuclear energy and radiation in Korea, it is desirable to provide strategic educational programs to improve perceptions, knowledge, and attitudes regarding the necessity and safety of their use.

Differential Effects of Recovery Efforts on Products Attitudes (제품태도에 대한 회복노력의 차별적 효과)

  • Kim, Cheon-GIl;Choi, Jung-Mi
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 2008
  • Previous research has presupposed that the evaluation of consumer who received any recovery after experiencing product failure should be better than the evaluation of consumer who did not receive any recovery. The major purposes of this article are to examine impacts of product defect failures rather than service failures, and to explore effects of recovery on postrecovery product attitudes. First, this article deals with the occurrence of severe and unsevere failure and corresponding service recovery toward tangible products rather than intangible services. Contrary to intangible services, purchase and usage are separable for tangible products. This difference makes it clear that executing an recovery strategy toward tangible products is not plausible right after consumers find out product failures. The consumers may think about backgrounds and causes for the unpleasant events during the time gap between product failure and recovery. The deliberation may dilutes positive effects of recovery efforts. The recovery strategies which are provided to consumers experiencing product failures can be classified into three types. A recovery strategy can be implemented to provide consumers with a new product replacing the old defective product, a complimentary product for free, a discount at the time of the failure incident, or a coupon that can be used on the next visit. This strategy is defined as "a rewarding effort." Meanwhile a product failure may arise in exchange for its benefit. Then the product provider can suggest a detail explanation that the defect is hard to escape since it relates highly to the specific advantage to the product. The strategy may be called as "a strengthening effort." Another possible strategy is to recover negative attitude toward own brand by giving prominence to the disadvantages of a competing brand rather than the advantages of its own brand. The strategy is reflected as "a weakening effort." This paper emphasizes that, in order to confirm its effectiveness, a recovery strategy should be compared to being nothing done in response to the product failure. So the three types of recovery efforts is discussed in comparison to the situation involving no recovery effort. The strengthening strategy is to claim high relatedness of the product failure with another advantage, and expects the two-sidedness to ease consumers' complaints. The weakening strategy is to emphasize non-aversiveness of product failure, even if consumers choose another competitive brand. The two strategies can be effective in restoring to the original state, by providing plausible motives to accept the condition of product failure or by informing consumers of non-responsibility in the failure case. However the two may be less effective strategies than the rewarding strategy, since it tries to take care of the rehabilitation needs of consumers. Especially, the relative effect between the strengthening effort and the weakening effort may differ in terms of the severity of the product failure. A consumer who realizes a highly severe failure is likely to attach importance to the property which caused the failure. This implies that the strengthening effort would be less effective under the condition of high product severity. Meanwhile, the failing property is not diagnostic information in the condition of low failure severity. Consumers would not pay attention to non-diagnostic information, and with which they are not likely to change their attitudes. This implies that the strengthening effort would be more effective under the condition of low product severity. A 2 (product failure severity: high or low) X 4 (recovery strategies: rewarding, strengthening, weakening, or doing nothing) between-subjects design was employed. The particular levels of product failure severity and the types of recovery strategies were determined after a series of expert interviews. The dependent variable was product attitude after the recovery effort was provided. Subjects were 284 consumers who had an experience of cosmetics. Subjects were first given a product failure scenario and were asked to rate the comprehensibility of the failure scenario, the probability of raising complaints against the failure, and the subjective severity of the failure. After a recovery scenario was presented, its comprehensibility and overall evaluation were measured. The subjects assigned to the condition of no recovery effort were exposed to a short news article on the cosmetic industry. Next, subjects answered filler questions: 42 items of the need for cognitive closure and 16 items of need-to-evaluate. In the succeeding page a subject's product attitude was measured on an five-item, six-point scale, and a subject's repurchase intention on an three-item, six-point scale. After demographic variables of age and sex were asked, ten items of the subject's objective knowledge was checked. The results showed that the subjects formed more favorable evaluations after receiving rewarding efforts than after receiving either strengthening or weakening efforts. This is consistent with Hoffman, Kelley, and Rotalsky (1995) in that a tangible service recovery could be more effective that intangible efforts. Strengthening and weakening efforts also were effective compared to no recovery effort. So we found that generally any recovery increased products attitudes. The results hint us that a recovery strategy such as strengthening or weakening efforts, although it does not contain a specific reward, may have an effect on consumers experiencing severe unsatisfaction and strong complaint. Meanwhile, strengthening and weakening efforts were not expected to increase product attitudes under the condition of low severity of product failure. We can conclude that only a physical recovery effort may be recognized favorably as a firm's willingness to recover its fault by consumers experiencing low involvements. Results of the present experiment are explained in terms of the attribution theory. This article has a limitation that it utilized fictitious scenarios. Future research deserves to test a realistic effect of recovery for actual consumers. Recovery involves a direct, firsthand experience of ex-users. Recovery does not apply to non-users. The experience of receiving recovery efforts can be relatively more salient and accessible for the ex-users than for non-users. A recovery effort might be more likely to improve product attitude for the ex-users than for non-users. Also the present experiment did not include consumers who did not have an experience of the products and who did not perceive the occurrence of product failure. For the non-users and the ignorant consumers, the recovery efforts might lead to decreased product attitude and purchase intention. This is because the recovery trials may give an opportunity for them to notice the product failure.

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Analyzing the User Intention of Booth Recommender System in Smart Exhibition Environment (스마트 전시환경에서 부스 추천시스템의 사용자 의도에 관한 조사연구)

  • Choi, Jae Ho;Xiang, Jun-Yong;Moon, Hyun Sil;Choi, Il Young;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.153-169
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    • 2012
  • Exhibitions have played a key role of effective marketing activity which directly informs services and products to current and potential customers. Through participating in exhibitions, exhibitors have got the opportunity to make face-to-face contact so that they can secure the market share and improve their corporate images. According to this economic importance of exhibitions, show organizers try to adopt a new IT technology for improving their performance, and researchers have also studied services which can improve the satisfaction of visitors through analyzing visit patterns of visitors. Especially, as smart technologies make them monitor activities of visitors in real-time, they have considered booth recommender systems which infer preference of visitors and recommender proper service to them like on-line environment. However, while there are many studies which can improve their performance in the side of new technological development, they have not considered the choice factor of visitors for booth recommender systems. That is, studies for factors which can influence the development direction and effective diffusion of these systems are insufficient. Most of prior studies for the acceptance of new technologies and the continuous intention of use have adopted Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Extended Technology Acceptance Model (ETAM). Booth recommender systems may not be new technology because they are similar with commercial recommender systems such as book recommender systems, in the smart exhibition environment, they can be considered new technology. However, for considering the smart exhibition environment beyond TAM, measurements for the intention of reuse should focus on how booth recommender systems can provide correct information to visitors. In this study, through literature reviews, we draw factors which can influence the satisfaction and reuse intention of visitors for booth recommender systems, and design a model to forecast adaptation of visitors for booth recommendation in the exhibition environment. For these purposes, we conduct a survey for visitors who attended DMC Culture Open in November 2011 and experienced booth recommender systems using own smart phone, and examine hypothesis by regression analysis. As a result, factors which can influence the satisfaction of visitors for booth recommender systems are the effectiveness, perceived ease of use, argument quality, serendipity, and so on. Moreover, the satisfaction for booth recommender systems has a positive relationship with the development of reuse intention. For these results, we have some insights for booth recommender systems in the smart exhibition environment. First, this study gives shape to important factors which are considered when they establish strategies which induce visitors to consistently use booth recommender systems. Recently, although show organizers try to improve their performances using new IT technologies, their visitors have not felt the satisfaction from these efforts. At this point, this study can help them to provide services which can improve the satisfaction of visitors and make them last relationship with visitors. On the other hands, this study suggests that they managers along the using time of booth recommender systems. For example, in the early stage of the adoption, they should focus on the argument quality, perceived ease of use, and serendipity, so that improve the acceptance of booth recommender systems. After these stages, they should bridge the differences between expectation and perception for booth recommender systems, and lead continuous uses of visitors. However, this study has some limitations. We only use four factors which can influence the satisfaction of visitors. Therefore, we should development our model to consider important additional factors. And the exhibition in our experiments has small number of booths so that visitors may not need to booth recommender systems. In the future study, we will conduct experiments in the exhibition environment which has a larger scale.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

Study on Health Behavior of Hypertensive Patients and Compliance for Treatment of Antihypertensive Medication (고혈압 환자들의 순응도와 건강행태의 관계)

  • Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Dong-Bae;Cho, Young-Chae;Lee, Sok-Goo;Chang, Seong-Sil;Kwon, Yun-Hyung;Lee, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.29-49
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    • 2000
  • Objectives: To estimate the prevalence rate of hypertension, the changes of health behavior, and compliance for the drug treatment after diagnosed as hypertension. Methods: 7,030 persons who live in Cheonan City of Chungnam Province were selected by the cluster sampling method, and 5,372 persons were surveyed by questionnaire and health examination. This data is analyzed by Chi-square test on each variable. Results: 49.8%- of men and 38.8%- of women had been diagnosed as hypertension, and the prevalence rate of hypertension was significantly increased with aging in both gender. The prevalence rate tended to decrease in highly educated women group. Unemployed persons or obese persons showed relatively higher prevalence rate. The prevalence rate of hypertension increased in groups with higher total cholesterol levels over 240 mg/dl, and groups with glucose level over 200 mg/dl. 53.1%- of male patients and 66.6%- of female patients showed compliance for antihypertensive treatment. Compliance for treatment was higher in aged group or lower educated group in both gender. Among men, proportion of compliant subjects was higher in unemployed group(49.3%-), and lower in labor or primary industry than the others but among women, there was not any significant difference. And men with compliance for treatment had higher monthly income than the others, but women did not show any. Conclusion : This population had a high prevalence rate of hypertension which may lead to cardiovascular disease. Therefore health education programs and distribution of information must be emphasized in order to increase compliance to treatment and encourage the change of health behavior to promote health.

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The Usefulness of Pressure-regulated Volume Control(PRVC) Mode in Mechanically Ventilated Patients with Unstable Respiratory Mechanics (기계 호흡 중 불안정한 호흡역학을 보인 환자에서 압력조절용적조정양식(Pressure-regulated Volume Control Mode)의 효용)

  • Sohn, Jang-Won;Koh, Youn-Suck;Lim, Chae-Man;Shim, Tae-Sun;Lee, Jong-Deog;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1318-1325
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    • 1997
  • Background : Since the late 1960s, mechanical ventilation has been accomplished primarily using volume controlled ventilation(VCV). While VCV allows a set tidal volume to be guaranteed, VCV could bring about excessive airway pressures that may be lead to barotrauma in the patients with acute lung injury. With the increment of knowledge related to ventilator-induced lung injury, pressure controlled ventilation(PCV) has been frequently applied to these patients. But, PCV has a disadvantage of variable tidal volume delivery as pulmonary impedance changes. Since the concept of combining the positive attributes of VCV and PCV(dual control ventilation, DCV) was described firstly in 1992, a few DCV modes were introduced. Pressure-regulated volume control(PRVC) mode, a kind of DCV, is pressure-limited, time-cycled ventilation that uses tidal volume as a feedback control for continuously adjusting the pressure limit However, no clinical studies were published on the efficacy of PRVC until now. 'This investigation studied the efficacy of PRVC in the patients with unstable respiratory mechanics. Methods : The subjects were 8 mechanically ventilated patients(M : F=6 : 2, $56{\pm}26$ years) who showed unstable respiratory mechanics, which was defined by the coefficients of variation of peak inspiratory pressure for 15 minutes greater than 10% under VCV, or the coefficients of variation of tidal volume greater than 10% under PCV. The study was consisited of 3 modes application with VCV, PCV and PRVC for 15 minutes by random order. To obtain same tidal volume, inspiratory pressure setting was adjusted in PCV. Respiratory parameters were measured by pulmonary monitor(CP-100 pulmonary monitor, Bicore, Irvine, CA, USA). Results : 1) Mean tidal volumes($V_T$) in each mode were not different(VCV, $431{\pm}102ml$ ; PCV, $417{\pm}99ml$ ; PRVC, $414{\pm}97ml$) 2) The coefficient of variation(CV) of $V_T$ were $5.2{\pm}3.9%$ in VCV, $15.2{\pm}7.5%$ in PCV and $19.3{\pm}10.0%$ in PRVC. The CV of $V_T$ in PCV and PRVC were significantly greater than that in VCV(p<0.01). 3) Mean peak inspiratory pressure(PIP) in VCV($31.0{\pm}6.9cm$ $H_2O$) was higher than PIP in PCV($26.0{\pm}6.5cm$ $H_2O$) or PRVC($27.0{\pm}6.4cm$ $H_2O$)(p<0.05). 4) The CV of PIP were $13.9{\pm}3.7%$ in VCV, $4.9{\pm}2.6%$ in PVC and $12.2{\pm}7.0%$ in PRVC. The CV of PIP in VCV and PRVC were greater than that in PCV(p<0.01). Conclusions : Because of wide fluctuations of VT and PIP, PRVC mode did not seem to have advantages compared to VCV or PCV in the patients with unstable respiratory mechanics.

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