• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.723-736
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• 2013

The importance of lapse rate is highly increasing due to the introduction of Cash Flow Pricing system, non-refund-of-reserve insurance policy, and IFRS (International Financial Reporting System) to the Korean insurance market. Researches on lapse rate have mainly focused on simple data analysis and regression analysis, etc. However, lapse rate can be analyzed by survival analysis and can be well explained in terms of several covariates with Cox proportional hazard model. Guaranteed minimum benefits embedded in variable annuities require more elegant statistical analysis of lapse rate. Hence, this paper analyzes data of policyholders with variable annuities by using Cox proportional hazard model. The key variables of policy holder that influences the lapse rate are payment method, premium, lapse insured to term insured, reserve-GMXB ratio, and age.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2016

Temperature lapse rate within the planetary boundary layer shows a diurnal cycle with a substantial variation. The widely-used lapse rate value for the standard atmosphere may result in unaffordable errors if used in interpolating hourly temperature in complex terrain. We propose a simple method for estimating hourly lapse rate and evaluate whether this scheme is better than the conventional method using the standard lapse rate. A standard curve for lapse rate based on the diurnal course of temperature was drawn using upper air temperature for 1000hPa and 925hPa standard pressure levels. It was modulated by the hourly sky condition (amount of clouds). In order to test the reliability of this method, hourly lapse rates for the 500-600m layer over Daegwallyeong site were estimated by this method and compared with the measured values by an ultrasonic temperature profiler. Results showed the mean error $-0.0001^{\circ}C/m$ and the root mean square error $0.0024^{\circ}C/m$ for this vertical profile experiment. An additional experiment was carried out to test if this method is applicable for the mountain slope lapse rate. Hourly lapse rates for the 313-401m slope range in a complex watershed ('Hadong Watermark 2') were estimated by this method and compared with the observations. We found this method useful in describing diurnal cycle and variation of the mountain slope lapse rate over a complex terrain despite larger error compared with the vertical profile experiment.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.447-462
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• 2021

In insurance, the surrender rate is an important variable that threatens the sustainability of insurers and determines the profitability of the contract. Unlike other actuarial assumptions that determine the cash flow of an insurance contract, however, it is characterized by endogenous variables such as people's economic, social, and subjective decisions. Therefore, a microscopic approach is required to identify and analyze the factors that determine the lapse rate. Specifically, micro-level characteristics including the individual, demographic, microeconomic, and household characteristics of policyholders are necessary for the analysis. In this study, we select panel survey data of Korean Retirement Income Study (KReIS) with many diverse dimensions to determine which variables have a decisive effect on the lapse and apply the lasso regularized regression model to analyze it empirically. As the data contain many missing values, they are imputed using the random forest method. Among the household variables, we find that the non-existence of old dependents, the existence of young dependents, and employed family members increase the surrender rate. Among the individual variables, divorce, non-urban residential areas, apartment type of housing, non-ownership of homes, and bad relationship with siblings increase the lapse rate. Finally, among the financial variables, low income, low expenditure, the existence of children that incur child care expenditure, not expecting to bequest from spouse, not holding public health insurance, and expecting to benefit from a retirement pension increase the lapse rate. Some of these findings are consistent with those in the literature.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.135-142
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• 2016

The aim of this study was to confirm the improvement of efficiency for temperature estimation at 0600 and 1500 LST by using a simple method for estimating temperature lapse rate modulated by the amount of clouds in comparison with the case adopting the existing single temperature lapse rate ($-6.5^{\circ}C/km$ or $-9^{\circ}C/km$). A catchment of the 'Hadong Watermark2,' which includes Hadong, Gurye, and Gwangyang was selected as the area for evaluating the practicality of the temperature lapse rate estimation method. The weather data of 0600 and 1500 LST at 12 weather observation sites within the catchment were collected during the entire year of 2015. Also, the 'sky condition' of digital forecast products of KMA in 2015 ($5{\times}5km$ lattice resolution) were overlapped with the catchment of the 'Hadong Watermark2,' to calculate the spatial average value within the catchment, which were used to simulate the 0600 and 1500 LST temperature lapse rate of the catchment. The estimation errors of the temperatures at 0600 LST were ME $-0.39^{\circ}C$ and RMSE $1.45^{\circ}C$ in 2015, when applying the existing temperature lapse rate. Using the estimated temperature lapse rate, they were improved to ME $-0.19^{\circ}C$ and RMSE $1.32^{\circ}C$. At 1500 LST, the effect of the improvements found from the comparison between the existing temperature lapse rate and the estimated temperature lapse rate were minute, because the estimated lapse rate of clear days is not very different from the existing lapse rate. However, the estimation errors of the temperatures at 1500 LST during cloudy days were improved from ME $-0.69^{\circ}C$, RMSE $1.54^{\circ}C$ to ME $-0.51^{\circ}C$, RMSE $1.19^{\circ}C$.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.73-80
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence of product portfolio and interest rate on the lapse ratio. This issue is very important because of the recent introduction of IFRS and CFP. The fixed-effect model and the random-effect model are estimated with using panel data and the Hausman test is employed in order to select a model. The results of this study is summarized as follows. Firstly, the random effect model is selected. According to the model, the lapse rate increases as the portfolio of savings plan, sickness, and death increases and the interest rate is high. Secondly, health insurance and variable insurance product show a negative relationship with the lapse rate.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.1
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• pp.250-252
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• 2006

The land surface temperature (LST) can be defined as a weighted average temperature of components which constitute a pixel. The coefficients of split-window algorithm for MTSAT-1R were obtained by means of a statistical regression analysis from radiative transfer simulations using MODTRAN 4.0 for a wide range of atmospheric, satellite viewing angle (SVA) and lapse rate conditions. 6 types of atmospheric profile data imbedded in the MODTRAN 4 are used for the radiative transfer simulations. The RMSE is clearly larger on warm and humid profiles than cold and dry profiles, especially when the satellite viewing angle and lapse rate are large. The derivation of LST equations according to the atmospheric profiles clearly decreased the RMSE without regard to the SVA and lapse rate. The bias and RMSE are decreased as the more controls factors included. This preliminary result indicates that the characteristics of atmosphere, SVA and lapse rate should be included in the LST equation.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.507-515
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• 2009

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key environmental variable in a wide range of applications, such as weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. However, LST is one of the most difficult surface variables to observe regularly due to the strong spatio-temporal variations. So, we have developed the LST retrieval algorithm from COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data through the radiative transfer simulations under various atmospheric profiles (TIGR data), satellite zenith angle (SZA), spectral emissivity, and surface lapse rate conditions using MODTRAN 4. However, the LST retrieval algorithm has a tendency to overestimate and underestimate the LST for surface inversion and superadiabatic conditions, respectively. To minimize the overestimation and underestimation of LST, we also developed day/night LST algorithms separately based on the surface lapse rate (local time) and recalculated the final LST by using the weighted sum of day/night LST. The analysis results showed that the quality of weighted LST of day/night algorithms is greatly improved compared to that of LST estimated by original algorithm regardless of the surface lapse rate, spectral emissivity difference (${\Delta}{\varepsilon}$) SZA, and atmospheric conditions. In general, the improvements are greatest when the surface lapse rate and ${\Delta}{\varepsilon}$ are negatively large (strong inversion conditions and less vegetated surface).

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.385-388
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• 2006

The land surface temperature (LST) can be defined as a weighted average temperature of components which constitute a pixel. The coefficients of split-window algorithm for MTSAT-1R were obtained by means of a statistical regression analysis from radiative transfer simulations using MODTRAN 4.0 for a wide range of atmospheric, satellite viewing angle (SVA) and lapse rate conditions. 6 types of atmospheric profile data imbedded in the MODTRAN 4 are used for the radiative transfer simulations. The RMSE is clearly larger on warm and humid profiles than cold and dry profiles, especially when the satellite viewing angle and lapse rate are large. The derivation of LST equations according to the atmospheric profiles clearly decreased the RMSE without regard to the SVA and lapse rate. The bias and RMSE are decreased as the more controls factors included. This preliminary result indicates that the characteristics of atmosphere, SVA and lapse rate should be included in the LST equation.

• International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.101-106
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• 2019

Assessing the energy performance of supertall buildings often does not consider variations in energy consumption due to the change of environmental conditions such as temperature, pressure, and wind speed associated with differing elevations. Some modelers account for these changing conditions by using a conventional temperature lapse rate, but not many studies confirm to the appropriateness of applying it to tall buildings. This paper presents and discusses simulated annual energy consumption results from a 600 m tall skyscraper floor plate located in Dubai, UAE, assessed using ground level weather data, a conventional temperature lapse rate of $6.5^{\circ}C/km$, and more accurate simulated 600 m weather data. A typical office floorplate, with ASHRAE 90.1-2010 standards and systems applied, was evaluated using the EnergyPlus engine through the OpenStudio graphical user interface. The results presented in this paper indicate that by using ground level weather data, energy consumption at the top of the building can be overestimated by upwards of 4%. Furthermore, by only using a lapse rate, heating energy is overestimated by up to 96% due to local weather phenomenon such as temperature inversion, which can only be conveyed using simulated weather data. In addition, sizing and energy consumption of fans, which are dependent both on wind and atmospheric pressure, are not accurately captured using a temperature lapse rate. These results show that that it is important, with the ever increasing construction of supertall buildings, to be able to account for variations in climatic conditions along the height of the building. Adequately modeling these conditions using simulated weather data will help designers and engineers correctly size mechanical systems, potentially decreasing overall building energy consumption, and ensuring that these systems are able to provide the necessary indoor conditions to maintain occupant comfort levels.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.174-183
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• 2021

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the pregnancy outcomes of in vitro fertilization with embryo transfer between embryos cultured in a time-lapse monitoring system (TLS) and those cultured in a conventional incubator (CI). Methods: The medical records of 250 fertilized embryos from 141 patients undergoing infertility treatment with assisted reproductive technology at a tertiary hospital from June 2018 to May 2020 were reviewed. The study population was divided into TLS and CI groups at a 1 to 1 ratio (125 embryos per group). The primary outcome was the live birth rate. Results: The TLS group had a significantly higher clinical pregnancy rate (46.4% vs. 27.2%, p=0.002), implantation rate (27.1% vs. 12.0%, p=0.004), and live birth rate (32.0% vs. 18.4%, p=0.013) than the CI group. Furthermore, subgroup analyses of the clinical pregnancy rate and live birth rate in the different age groups favored the TLS group. However, this difference only reached statistical significance in the live birth rate in women aged over 40 years and the clinical pregnancy rate in women aged 35-40 years (p=0.048 and p=0.031, respectively). The miscarriage rate, cleavage rate, and blastocyst rate were comparable. Conclusion: TLS application improved the live birth rate, implantation rate, and clinical pregnancy rate, particularly in the advanced age group in this study, while the other reproductive outcomes were comparable. Large randomized controlled trials are needed to further explore the ramifications of these findings, especially in different age groups.