• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

In this study, labor force projections are made in order to examine the process and magnitude of labor shortage caused by population ageing in Korea. Starting from theoretical review and analysis of population projection data, this study presents that serious transitions of labor market are expected to begin between 2020 and 2030. This study shows even in case of encouraging higher labor participation, labor shortage cannot be offset but only delay and alleviate effects of population ageing. Finally, this study points out some important implications of labor policy including sensitive social and political issues which should be considered.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.51-72
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• 2006

In Korea, most studies have used the conventional Wolfbein and Wool method, which cannot be applied to women's work-life table because of bimodality and/or M curve of female labor force participation. The increment/decrement work-life table method, however, is equally applicable to both men and women, but requires individual data on employment transition. This paper demonstrates that the Garfinkle-Pollard method is the same as the increment/decrement work-life table method developed by Hoem, Schoen and Woodrow and adopted by BLS. The merit of Garfinkle-Pollard method is to produce work-life table using labor force participation rate without individual employment transition. This paper applies the Garfinkle-Pollard methods to the estimation and projection of work-life of Korean labor force for the period of 2000-2050, using the abridged life tables provided by Korean National Statistical Office and a projection of labor force participation rates. The work-life expectancy at 65 is 5.8 years for men and 4.1 years for women in 2000, and it increased to 7.7 years for men and 5.1 years in 2050. However, differences in work-life expectancy are found depending on the data processing of elderly labor force participation and mortality assumption. Detailed data on elderly labor force participation and further study on future mortality are required to estimate and project more accurate work-life expectancy.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.60 no.3
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• pp.31-58
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• 2008

This study examines applying the elderly poverty labor hypothesis and skill-biased technological change hypothesis to labor force participation rate(LFPR) of older males in Korea. These hypotheses have hardly been examined on the this group. The analysis is based on the data "Summary of economically active population($1965{\sim}2007$)", "Population projection($1965{\sim}2007$)", "Report on wage structure survey($1993{\sim}2005$)" and "Korea Labor and Income Panel Study($1998{\sim}2006$)". The method employed for this study is logistic regression. The main results from this analysis are summarized in five points. Firstly, Korean older males' LFPR have been increasing since 1965 when industrialization was expanding at full steam. This trend has been different from the decreasing trend of industrialized countries. The second finding is that poor older males' LFPR is, on the average, 5.2% higher than that of non-poor older males from 1998 to 2005. The third result is that the non-elderly man has been increasingly positioned at higher grade occupations, while the elderly man has been held at lower grade occupations. The fourth is that labor demand for highly educated workers has exceeded the increased labor supply of the group, while the demand for low educated workers has decreased far beyond the declined labor supply. As a result, college premium has increased from 139% in 1993 to 157.8% in 2005. The final main implication of this study is that the industrialization theory and modernization hypothesis still holds for the LFPR of Korean older males. However, the elderly affluence hypothesis of the LFPR of older males are hardly persuasive in explaining Korean phenomenon. Especially, we find that the elderly poverty is the main mechanism in determining the Korean LFPR in old ages. This supports the elderly poverty labor hypothesis presented in this study. Skill-biased technological change hypothesis partially explains the LFPR of older man. However, we believe that other factors; human capital specially high school education rather than university education and skill required in less skill biased occupations or the poverty; also have taken effect.