• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.127-137
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• 2024

Physical models, which are often used for water resource management, are difficult to build and operate with input data and may involve the subjective views of users. In recent years, research using data-driven models such as machine learning has been actively conducted to compensate for these problems in the field of water resources, and in this study, an artificial neural network was used to simulate long-term rainfall runoff in the Osipcheon watershed in Samcheok-si, Gangwon-do. For this purpose, three input data groups (meteorological observations, daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily precipitation - potential evapotranspiration) were constructed from meteorological data, and the results of training the LSTM (Long Short-term Memory) artificial neural network model were compared and analyzed. As a result, the performance of LSTM-Model 1 using only meteorological observations was the highest, and six LSTM-MLP ensemble models with MLP artificial neural networks were built to simulate long-term runoff in the Fifty Thousand Watershed. The comparison between the LSTM and LSTM-MLP models showed that both models had generally similar results, but the MAE, MSE, and RMSE of LSTM-MLP were reduced compared to LSTM, especially in the low-flow part. As the results of LSTM-MLP show an improvement in the low-flow part, it is judged that in the future, in addition to the LSTM-MLP model, various ensemble models such as CNN can be used to build physical models and create sulfur curves in large basins that take a long time to run and unmeasured basins that lack input data.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.178-185
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• 2023

Rapid urbanization and advancements in technology have led to a surge in the number of automobiles, resulting in frequent traffic accidents, and consequently, an increase in human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, there is a need for technology that can predict the risk of traffic accidents to prevent them and minimize the damage caused by them. Traffic accidents occur due to various factors including traffic congestion, the traffic environment, and road conditions. These factors give traffic accidents spatiotemporal characteristics. This paper analyzes traffic accident data to understand the main characteristics of traffic accidents and reconstructs the data in a time series format. Additionally, an LSTM-MLP based model that excellently captures spatiotemporal characteristics was developed and utilized for traffic accident prediction. Experiments have proven that the proposed model is more rational and accurate in predicting the risk of traffic accidents compared to existing models. The traffic accident risk prediction model suggested in this paper can be applied to systems capable of real-time monitoring of road conditions and environments, such as navigation systems. It is expected to enhance the safety of road users and minimize the social costs associated with traffic accidents.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.329-338
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• 2021

This study predicts the amount of wind power generation for rational operation plan of wind power generation and capacity calculation of ESS. For forecasting, we present a method of predicting wind power generation by combining a physical approach and a statistical approach. The factors of wind power generation are analyzed and variables are selected. By collecting historical data of the selected variables, the amount of wind power generation is predicted using deep learning. The model used is a hybrid model that combines a bidirectional long short term memory (LSTM) and a convolution neural network (CNN) algorithm. To compare the prediction performance, this model is compared with the model and the error which consist of the MLP(:Multi Layer Perceptron) algorithm, The results is presented to evaluate the prediction performance.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.53-62
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• 2024

In this study, we built a model to estimate frost occurrence in South Korea using single-input deep learning and multi-input deep learning. Meteorological factors used as learning data included minimum temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation. As a result of statistical analysis for each factor on days when frost occurred and days when frost did not occur, significant differences were found. When evaluating the frost occurrence models based on single-input deep learning and multi-input deep learning model, the model using both GRU and MLP was highest accuracy at 0.8774 on average. As a result, it was found that frost occurrence model adopting multi-input deep learning improved performance more than using MLP, LSTM, GRU respectively.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.509-512
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• 2021

최근 다양한 시계열 데이터의 분석이 딥러닝 방법을 통하여 수행되고 있다. 주로 RNN과 LSTM을 이용하여 많은 시계열 예측이 이루어지고 있다. 하지만 이러한 예측모델을 생성하는데 가장 중요한 것은 어떠한 변수를 얼마나 사용하는지가 중요하다. 이에 대하여, 본 연구에서는 3개의 신경망을 적용하여, 속성을 선택하는 Selection MLP, 속성에 가중치를 부여하는 Extraction MLP 그리고 예측을 진행하는 Prediction MLP로 이루어진 MLP-SEL 구조를 제안한다. 비교를 위하여 다른 순환 신경망에 대하여 시계열 데이터에 대한 예측을 진행하였으며, 그 결과 우리가 제안한 MLP-SEL 모델의 시계열 예측이 좋은 성능을 보였다.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.295-302
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• 2022

This paper contains the development of a smart power device designed to collect load power data from industrial manufacturing machines, predict future variations in load power data, and detect abnormal data in advance by applying a machine learning-based prediction algorithm. The proposed load power data prediction model is implemented using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm with high accuracy and relatively low complexity. The Flask and REST API are used to provide prediction results to users in a graphical interface. In addition, we present the results of experiments conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, which show that our model exhibited the highest accuracy compared with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models. Moreover, we expect our method's accuracy could be improved by further optimizing the hyperparameter values and training the model for a longer period of time using a larger amount of data.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

Recently, demand forecasting techniques have been actively studied due to interest in stable power supply with surging power demand, and increase in spread of smart meters that enable real-time power measurement. In this study, we proceeded the deep learning prediction model experiments which learns actual measured power usage data of home and outputs the forecasting result. And we proceeded pre-processing with moving average method. The predicted value made by the model is evaluated with the actual measured data. Through this forecasting, it is possible to lower the power supply reserve ratio and reduce the waste of the unused power. In this paper, we conducted experiments on three types of networks: Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and we evaluate the results of each scheme. Evaluation is conducted with following method: MSE(Mean Squared Error) method and MAE(Mean Absolute Error).

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.201-207
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• 2023

In this paper, we propose an optimal model for mid to long-term price prediction of agricultural products using LGBM, MLP, LSTM, and GRU to compare and analyze the three strategies of the Multi-Step Time Series. The proposed model is designed to find the optimal combination between the models by selecting methods from various angles. Prior agricultural product price prediction studies have mainly adopted traditional econometric models such as ARIMA and LSTM-type models. In contrast, agricultural product price prediction studies related to Multi-Step Time Series were minimal. In this study, the experiment was conducted by dividing it into two periods according to the degree of volatility of agricultural product prices. As a result of the mid-to-long-term price prediction of three strategies, namely direct, hybrid, and multiple outputs, the hybrid approach showed relatively superior performance. This study academically and practically contributes to mid-to-long term daily price prediction by proposing an effective alternative.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2019.10a
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• pp.885-888
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• 2019

다양한 요소에 의해 영향을 받는 주식 시장에서 정확한 분석과 예측은 막대한 수익과 최소 손실을 보장한다. 본 논문은 주가 움직임 예측을 위하여 다양한 기술적 지표로부터 적합한 특징을 선택하고 세 가지 분류 알고리즘 LSTM, SVM, MLP 을 통해 향후 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 일 후의 주가 움직임을 예측하는 실험을 진행하였다. LSTM 에서 30 일 후를 예측할 때 74.4%의 가장 높은 분류 정확도를 보였으며 전반적으로 LSTM 을 통한 분류가 우수한 결과를 나타냈다.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.57-72
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• 2020

The price of iron ore has continued to fluctuate with high demand and supply from many countries and companies. In this business environment, forecasting the price of iron ore has become important. This study developed the machine learning model forecasting the price of iron ore a one month after the trading events. The forecasting model used distributed lag model and deep learning models such as MLP (Multi-layer perceptron), RNN (Recurrent neural network) and LSTM (Long short-term memory). According to the results of comparing individual models through metrics, LSTM showed the lowest predictive error. Also, as a result of comparing the models using the ensemble technique, the distributed lag and LSTM ensemble model showed the lowest prediction.