• Title/Summary/Keyword: LSTM 알고리즘

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Water temperature prediction of Daecheong Reservoir by a process-guided deep learning model (역학적 모델과 딥러닝 모델을 융합한 대청호 수온 예측)

  • Kim, Sung Jin;Park, Hyungseok;Lee, Gun Ho;Chung, Se Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.88-88
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    • 2021
  • 최근 수자원과 수질관리 분야에 자료기반 머신러닝 모델과 딥러닝 모델의 활용이 급증하고 있다. 그러나 딥러닝 모델은 Blackbox 모델의 특성상 고전적인 질량, 운동량, 에너지 보존법칙을 고려하지 않고, 데이터에 내재된 패턴과 관계를 해석하기 때문에 물리적 법칙을 만족하지 않는 예측결과를 가져올 수 있다. 또한, 딥러닝 모델의 예측 성능은 학습데이터의 양과 변수 선정에 크게 영향을 받는 모델이기 때문에 양질의 데이터가 제공되지 않으면 모델의 bias와 variation이 클 수 있으며 정확도 높은 예측이 어렵다. 최근 이러한 자료기반 모델링 방법의 단점을 보완하기 위해 프로세스 기반 수치모델과 딥러닝 모델을 결합하여 두 모델링 방법의 장점을 활용하는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다(Read et al., 2019). Process-Guided Deep Learning (PGDL) 방법은 물리적 법칙을 반영하여 딥러닝 모델을 훈련시킴으로써 순수한 딥러닝 모델의 물리적 법칙 결여성 문제를 해결할 수 있는 대안으로 활용되고 있다. PGDL 모델은 딥러닝 모델에 물리적인 법칙을 해석할 수 있는 추가변수를 도입하며, 딥러닝 모델의 매개변수 최적화 과정에서 Cost 함수에 물리적 법칙을 위반하는 경우 Penalty를 추가하는 알고리즘을 도입하여 물리적 보존법칙을 만족하도록 모델을 훈련시킨다. 본 연구의 목적은 대청호의 수심별 수온을 예측하기 위해 역학적 모델과 딥러닝 모델을 융합한 PGDL 모델을 개발하고 적용성을 평가하는데 있다. 역학적 모델은 2차원 횡방향 평균 수리·수질 모델인 CE-QUAL-W2을 사용하였으며, 대청호를 대상으로 2017년부터 2018년까지 총 2년간 수온과 에너지 수지를 모의하였다. 기상(기온, 이슬점온도, 풍향, 풍속, 운량), 수문(저수위, 유입·유출 유량), 수온자료를 수집하여 CE-QUAL-W2 모델을 구축하고 보정하였으며, 모델은 저수위 변화, 수온의 수심별 시계열 변동 특성을 적절하게 재현하였다. 또한, 동일기간 대청호 수심별 수온 예측을 위한 순환 신경망 모델인 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory)을 개발하였으며, 종속변수는 수온계 체인을 통해 수집한 수심별 고빈도 수온 자료를 사용하고 독립 변수는 기온, 풍속, 상대습도, 강수량, 단파복사에너지, 장파복사에너지를 사용하였다. LSTM 모델의 매개변수 최적화는 지도학습을 통해 예측값과 실측값의 RMSE가 최소화 되로록 훈련하였다. PGDL 모델은 동일 기간 LSTM 모델과 동일 입력 자료를 사용하여 구축하였으며, 역학적 모델에서 얻은 에너지 수지를 만족하지 않는 경우 Cost Function에 Penalty를 추가하여 물리적 보존법칙을 만족하도록 훈련하고 수심별 수온 예측결과를 비교·분석하였다.

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Case study on flood water level prediction accuracy of LSTM model according to condition of reference hydrological station combination (참조 수문관측소 구성 조건에 따른 LSTM 모형 홍수위예측 정확도 검토 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Jaewon;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.981-992
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    • 2023
  • Due to recent global climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing as rainfall is concentrated and its intensity increases. Rain on a scale that has not been observed in the past may fall, and long-term rainy seasons that have not been recorded may occur. These damages are also concentrated in ASEAN countries, and many people in ASEAN countries are affected, along with frequent occurrences of flooding due to typhoons and torrential rains. In particular, the Bandung region which is located in the Upper Chitarum River basin in Indonesia has topographical characteristics in the form of a basin, making it very vulnerable to flooding. Accordingly, through the Official Development Assistance (ODA), a flood forecasting and warning system was established for the Upper Citarium River basin in 2017 and is currently in operation. Nevertheless, the Upper Citarium River basin is still exposed to the risk of human and property damage in the event of a flood, so efforts to reduce damage through fast and accurate flood forecasting are continuously needed. Therefore, in this study an artificial intelligence-based river flood water level forecasting model for Dayeu Kolot as a target station was developed by using 10-minute hydrological data from 4 rainfall stations and 1 water level station. Using 10-minute hydrological observation data from 6 stations from January 2017 to January 2021, learning, verification, and testing were performed for lead time such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hour and LSTM was applied as an artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, good results were shown in model fit and error for all lead times, and as a result of reviewing the prediction accuracy according to the learning dataset conditions, it is expected to be used to build an efficient artificial intelligence-based model as it secures prediction accuracy similar to that of using all observation stations even when there are few reference stations.

A study on accident prevention AI system based on estimation of bus passengers' intentions (시내버스 승하차 의도분석 기반 사고방지 AI 시스템 연구)

  • Seonghwan Park;Sunoh Byun;Junghoon Park
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, we present a study on an AI-based system utilizing the CCTV system within city buses to predict the intentions of boarding and alighting passengers, with the aim of preventing accidents. The proposed system employs the YOLOv7 Pose model to detect passengers, while utilizing an LSTM model to predict intentions of tracked passengers. The system can be installed on the bus's CCTV terminals, allowing for real-time visual confirmation of passengers' intentions throughout driving. It also provides alerts to the driver, mitigating potential accidents during passenger transitions. Test results show accuracy rates of 0.81 for analyzing boarding intentions and 0.79 for predicting alighting intentions onboard. To ensure real-time performance, we verified that a minimum of 5 frames per second analysis is achievable in a GPU environment. his algorithm enhance the safety of passenger transitions during bus operations. In the future, with improved hardware specifications and abundant data collection, the system's expansion into various safety-related metrics is promising. This algorithm is anticipated to play a pivotal role in ensuring safety when autonomous driving becomes commercialized. Additionally, its applicability could extend to other modes of public transportation, such as subways and all forms of mass transit, contributing to the overall safety of public transportation systems.

Feasibility of Deep Learning Algorithms for Binary Classification Problems (이진 분류문제에서의 딥러닝 알고리즘의 활용 가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Kitae;Lee, Bomi;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2017
  • Recently, AlphaGo which is Bakuk (Go) artificial intelligence program by Google DeepMind, had a huge victory against Lee Sedol. Many people thought that machines would not be able to win a man in Go games because the number of paths to make a one move is more than the number of atoms in the universe unlike chess, but the result was the opposite to what people predicted. After the match, artificial intelligence technology was focused as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution and attracted attentions from various application domains. Especially, deep learning technique have been attracted as a core artificial intelligence technology used in the AlphaGo algorithm. The deep learning technique is already being applied to many problems. Especially, it shows good performance in image recognition field. In addition, it shows good performance in high dimensional data area such as voice, image and natural language, which was difficult to get good performance using existing machine learning techniques. However, in contrast, it is difficult to find deep leaning researches on traditional business data and structured data analysis. In this study, we tried to find out whether the deep learning techniques have been studied so far can be used not only for the recognition of high dimensional data but also for the binary classification problem of traditional business data analysis such as customer churn analysis, marketing response prediction, and default prediction. And we compare the performance of the deep learning techniques with that of traditional artificial neural network models. The experimental data in the paper is the telemarketing response data of a bank in Portugal. It has input variables such as age, occupation, loan status, and the number of previous telemarketing and has a binary target variable that records whether the customer intends to open an account or not. In this study, to evaluate the possibility of utilization of deep learning algorithms and techniques in binary classification problem, we compared the performance of various models using CNN, LSTM algorithm and dropout, which are widely used algorithms and techniques in deep learning, with that of MLP models which is a traditional artificial neural network model. However, since all the network design alternatives can not be tested due to the nature of the artificial neural network, the experiment was conducted based on restricted settings on the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the number of output data (filters), and the application conditions of the dropout technique. The F1 Score was used to evaluate the performance of models to show how well the models work to classify the interesting class instead of the overall accuracy. The detail methods for applying each deep learning technique in the experiment is as follows. The CNN algorithm is a method that reads adjacent values from a specific value and recognizes the features, but it does not matter how close the distance of each business data field is because each field is usually independent. In this experiment, we set the filter size of the CNN algorithm as the number of fields to learn the whole characteristics of the data at once, and added a hidden layer to make decision based on the additional features. For the model having two LSTM layers, the input direction of the second layer is put in reversed position with first layer in order to reduce the influence from the position of each field. In the case of the dropout technique, we set the neurons to disappear with a probability of 0.5 for each hidden layer. The experimental results show that the predicted model with the highest F1 score was the CNN model using the dropout technique, and the next best model was the MLP model with two hidden layers using the dropout technique. In this study, we were able to get some findings as the experiment had proceeded. First, models using dropout techniques have a slightly more conservative prediction than those without dropout techniques, and it generally shows better performance in classification. Second, CNN models show better classification performance than MLP models. This is interesting because it has shown good performance in binary classification problems which it rarely have been applied to, as well as in the fields where it's effectiveness has been proven. Third, the LSTM algorithm seems to be unsuitable for binary classification problems because the training time is too long compared to the performance improvement. From these results, we can confirm that some of the deep learning algorithms can be applied to solve business binary classification problems.

Abnormal Water Temperature Prediction Model Near the Korean Peninsula Using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 한반도 근해 이상수온 예측모델)

  • Choi, Hey Min;Kim, Min-Kyu;Yang, Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.265-282
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    • 2022
  • Sea surface temperature (SST) is a factor that greatly influences ocean circulation and ecosystems in the Earth system. As global warming causes changes in the SST near the Korean Peninsula, abnormal water temperature phenomena (high water temperature, low water temperature) occurs, causing continuous damage to the marine ecosystem and the fishery industry. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology to predict the SST near the Korean Peninsula and prevent damage by predicting abnormal water temperature phenomena. The study area was set near the Korean Peninsula, and ERA5 data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to utilize SST data at the same time period. As a research method, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm specialized for time series data prediction among deep learning models was used in consideration of the time series characteristics of SST data. The prediction model predicts the SST near the Korean Peninsula after 1- to 7-days and predicts the high water temperature or low water temperature phenomenon. To evaluate the accuracy of SST prediction, Coefficient of determination (R2), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators were used. The summer (JAS) 1-day prediction result of the prediction model, R2=0.996, RMSE=0.119℃, MAPE=0.352% and the winter (JFM) 1-day prediction result is R2=0.999, RMSE=0.063℃, MAPE=0.646%. Using the predicted SST, the accuracy of abnormal sea surface temperature prediction was evaluated with an F1 Score (F1 Score=0.98 for high water temperature prediction in summer (2021/08/05), F1 Score=1.0 for low water temperature prediction in winter (2021/02/19)). As the prediction period increased, the prediction model showed a tendency to underestimate the SST, which also reduced the accuracy of the abnormal water temperature prediction. Therefore, it is judged that it is necessary to analyze the cause of underestimation of the predictive model in the future and study to improve the prediction accuracy.

Electromyography Pattern Recognition and Classification using Circular Structure Algorithm (원형 구조 알고리즘을 이용한 근전도 패턴 인식 및 분류)

  • Choi, Yuna;Sung, Minchang;Lee, Seulah;Choi, Youngjin
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2020
  • This paper proposes a pattern recognition and classification algorithm based on a circular structure that can reflect the characteristics of the sEMG (surface electromyogram) signal measured in the arm without putting the placement limitation of electrodes. In order to recognize the same pattern at all times despite the electrode locations, the data acquisition of the circular structure is proposed so that all sEMG channels can be connected to one another. For the performance verification of the sEMG pattern recognition and classification using the developed algorithm, several experiments are conducted. First, although there are no differences in the sEMG signals themselves, the similar patterns are much better identified in the case of the circular structure algorithm than that of conventional linear ones. Second, a comparative analysis is shown with the supervised learning schemes such as MLP, CNN, and LSTM. In the results, the classification recognition accuracy of the circular structure is above 98% in all postures. It is much higher than the results obtained when the linear structure is used. The recognition difference between the circular and linear structures was the biggest with about 4% when the MLP network was used.

Comparative Analysis for Real-Estate Price Index Prediction Models using Machine Learning Algorithms: LIME's Interpretability Evaluation (기계학습 알고리즘을 활용한 지역 별 아파트 실거래가격지수 예측모델 비교: LIME 해석력 검증)

  • Jo, Bo-Geun;Park, Kyung-Bae;Ha, Sung-Ho
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.119-144
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Real estate usually takes charge of the highest proportion of physical properties which individual, organizations, and government hold and instability of real estate market affects the economic condition seriously for each economic subject. Consequently, practices for predicting the real estate market have attention for various reasons, such as financial investment, administrative convenience, and wealth management. Additionally, development of machine learning algorithms and computing hardware enhances the expectation for more precise and useful prediction models in real estate market. Design/methodology/approach In response to the demand, this paper aims to provide a framework for forecasting the real estate market with machine learning algorithms. The framework consists of demonstrating the prediction efficiency of each machine learning algorithm, interpreting the interior feature effects of prediction model with a state-of-art algorithm, LIME(Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation), and comparing the results in different cities. Findings This research could not only enhance the academic base for information system and real estate fields, but also resolve information asymmetry on real estate market among economic subjects. This research revealed that macroeconomic indicators, real estate-related indicators, and Google Trends search indexes can predict real-estate prices quite well.

A Verification about the Formation Process of Filter Bubble with Personalization Algorithm (개인화 알고리즘으로 필터 버블이 형성되는 과정에 대한 검증)

  • Jun, Junyong;Hwang, Soyoun;Yoon, Youngmi
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.369-381
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    • 2018
  • Nowadays a personalization algorithm is gaining huge attention. It gives users selective information which is helpful and interesting in a deluge of information based on their past behavior on the internet. However there is also a fatal side effect that the user can only get restricted information on restricted topics selected by the algorithm. Basically, the personalization algorithm makes users have a narrower perspective and even stronger bias because users have less chances to get views of opponent. Eli Pariser called this problem the 'filter bubble' in his book. It is important to understand exactly what a filter bubble is to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper shows how much Google's personalized search algorithm influences search result through an experiment with deep neural networks acting like users. At the beginning of the experiment, two Google accounts are newly created, not to be influenced by the Google's personalized search algorithm. Then the two pure accounts get politically biased by two methods. We periodically calculate the numerical score depending on the character of links and it shows how biased the account is. In conclusion, this paper shows the formation process of filter bubble by a personalization algorithm through the experiment.

SNS data based regional trend analysis (SNS 데이터 기반 지역 트렌드 분석)

  • Cho, Jae-hyeon;Moon, Nam-me
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.403-405
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    • 2018
  • 도시 속 상업 공간에서는 공간적 위치에 따른 지리적 이점이나 판매하는 상품뿐만 아니라, 해당 공간 속에서 소비자가 느낄 수 있는 문화와 감성이 소비자가 소비를 유하게 하는 중요한 요소가 되기도 한다. ICT 서비스 환경이 자리를 잡아 감과 동시에 제4차 산업 혁명이 도래하고 있는 현대 정보화 환경 속에서 소비자들은 자신의 심리나 감성, 정서에 들어맞는 공간에 방문하며 소비하고 SNS를 통해 공유한다. SNS는 Social Network Service의 줄임말로 너무나 일반적으로 우리 일상에 들어와 있는 개념이다. SNS의 시작은 마케팅의 한 분야로 시작된 것으로 판단된다. SNS를 이용한 홍보마케팅은 21세기에 접어들면서 고객들의 주관적인 개개인의 욕구 충족과 감성을 중시하게 됨으로써 예전보다 더 복합적이며 정교해졌다. 본 연구는 SNS 데이터를 블로그, 카페, 페이스북, 인스타그램에서 지역 명칭을 키워드로 1년간 콘텐츠를 크롤링하며, 형태소 분석기를 통해 학습할 수 있도록 데이터 전처리 작업을 한다. 마지막으로 딥러닝 알고리즘인 RNN 중 LSTM을 사용하여 감성 분석 학습 모델을 만들어서 지역별 콘텐츠의 주요분야, 긍/부정을 판별한다. 이렇게 분석한 데이터를 이용해 각 지역만의 특색과 인기 분야, 비인기 분야, 더 나아가 유망한 분야를 알아본다.

Deep learning-based conduit water level prediction for Shinwol underground stomwater tunnel operation (신월 빗물저류배수시설 운영을 위한 딥러닝 기반 관거 수위 예측)

  • Choi, Hyeonseok;Yoon, Sun Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.418-418
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    • 2021
  • 신월 빗물저류배수시설은 2010년 집중호우로 침수피해가 발생한 강서구 및 양천구의 저지대 침수문제 해결을 위해서 양천구의 지하 50m 깊이에 설치한 직경 10m, 길이 3.6km, 저류량 32만톤 규모의 지하 대심도 저류 터널이다. 해당 시설은 강우 발생시 유역의 중상류 하수관에서 횡월류 수문을 통해 우수를 저류터널로 유입 및 저류하고, 하류에 위치한 목동 빗물펌프장과 연계하여 배수할 수 있도록 구성되어 있다. 현재 시설의 운영은 유입부 인근에 설치된 수위계를 통해 수문 가동 여부를 판단하고 있으며, 운영 기준 및 매뉴얼은 서울기술연구원에서 지속적인 모니터링을 통해 고도화하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 실측 수위 기반의 신월 빗물저류배수시설 운영을 자동화하기 위한 방편으로, 딥러닝 기반의 RNN, LSTM, GRU 등의 알고리즘을 이용하여 유입부 관거 수위를 예측하는 모델을 개발하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 모델의 개발 및 검·보정을 위해 2010년부터 유역 내 구축되어 있는 강우 및 하수관 수위 자료와 목동 빗물펌프장 운영자료를 활용하였다. 현재 신월 빗물저류배수시설은 2020년 5월 준공되어 절대적인 자료 축적 기간이 부족하기 때문에, 향후 지속적인 강우-수위 모니터링을 통해 모델을 고도화하여 시설의 운영에 활용할 수 있도록 개선해 나갈 예정이다.

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