• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.4 s.75
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• pp.31-42
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• 2004

This study develops Accident Modification Factors (AMF) of countermeasures with Baysian method which are newly proposed for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. This study proposes a new "Bayesian Analytical Framework" for countermeasure assessment which combines "Subjective" Prior Information with "Logical" based Information. The newly proposed "Bayesian Analytical Framework" consists of the following three steps: The 1st step - Countermeasure Selection, Choice of Participants, Selection of Crashes; The 2nd step-Development of Crash History Manual and Countermeasure Evaluation Manual; The 3rd step-Development of AMFs through sound statistical tests. This study used the Komogorov-Smirnov(K-S) Test to determine whether two unknown distribution functions associated with the two populations are identical. The results of the study are that individual responses did not meet the K-S test of identical distributions. while individual vs. group distributions are identical. This indicates that combining the input of several people reduces the impact of individual subjectivity and assumptions and is important for developing a repeatable distribution to develop sound AMFs of countermeasures for reducing Roadway-Rail grade crossing accidents. The procedures of the AMF development conducted in this study can be used to estimate the safety effects of countermeasures for road segments and intersections, in addition to Roadway-Rail grade crossings.