• Title/Summary/Keyword: Korean Presidential Election

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Analysis of categorical data with nonresponses (무응답을 포함하는 범주형 자료의 분석)

  • 박태성;이승연
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 1998
  • Statistical models are proposed for analyzing categorical data in the presence of missing observations or nonresponses which might occur in the sampling surveys and polls. As an illustration, we analyzed real polling data of the pre-presidential election in the USA, 1948, It had been predicted that Dewey would win the election. However, Truman won in the actual election.

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A Exploratory Study on Big-data based Election Campaign Strategy Model in South Korea (빅데이터 기반 선거캠페인 전략에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Noh, Kyoo-Sung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2013
  • The victory of Barack Obama in the presidential reelection, in which he got closer to voters by scientific election strategy based on data, is making a new paradigm of this scientific election mechanism. But it is within bounds to say that Korean election has developed based on emotional confrontation, rather than on the confrontation of policy or personal qualification. This study suggests a Big data-based election campaign strategy in an effort to reduce the harmful consequences of Korean election and to settle down a desirable campaign culture. To do so, this study examines the actual status and problems of Korean politics and election campaign. And then it designs a Korean election strategy model using Big data as an alternative to break through the problems. Last, it discusses the plan to utilize Big data.

Implication of the Election Result in line with the Nomination Conflicts of the Korean Political Parties: Based on the nomination of the ruling party and the opposition party in the 20th general election (한국 정당의 공천파동에 따른 선거 결과 함의 : 제20대 총선과정에서 여·야 정당의 공천을 중심으로)

  • Chung, Joo-Shin
    • Korea and Global Affairs
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.31-70
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    • 2017
  • On December 9, 2016, the decision of impeachment of the National Assembly decided against Park Geun-hye came from the nomination conflicts of the 20th general election between Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group at the ruling Saenuri Party. Therefore, this study focused on the nomination conflicts of the ruling party and the opposition party on the election results in the 20th general election on the public sentiment of the people. The nomination conflicts of the ruling and opposite parties were a prelude to the victory of the 19th presidential election, and it was serious faction conflict. Firstly, the study examined how the nomination conflicts of each party were centered on President Park Geun-hye as well as the leaders of each party and the chairman of the nomination committee. Secondly, the study examined what kind of changes would be made to the composition of presidential candidates for each party at the time of the presidential election. Thirdly, the study examined the opposition parties' separation between the Minjoo Party of Korea and the People's Party of Korea before and after the election and the issue of initiative in Honam. As a result of the analysis, the 20th general election failed to obtain a majority seat of the ruling Saenuri Party, and the opposition won and formed the majority. The reason why President Park and Saenuri were greatly defeated in the contest even in the situation where the opposition parties were divided is the root cause in the attitude of Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group who assumed their victory. Therefore, it is highly possible to render its responsibility to President Park Geun-hye, who has become a 'past power', and it has opened up the possibility that the emergence of future power by opposition parties. In the case of the opposition party, it is clear that the battle for Honam, which is a traditional opposition party's support group, is a matter of good fortune of the two major powers, Moon Jae In and Ahn Cheol Soo.

Bias caused by nonresponses and suggestion for increasing response rate in the telephone survey on election (전화 선거여론조사에서 무응답률 증가로 인한 편의와 응답률 제고 방안)

  • Heo, Sunyeong;Yi, Sucheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2016
  • Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

Systematic Bias of Telephone Surveys: Meta Analysis of 2007 Presidential Election Polls (전화조사의 체계적 편향 - 2007년 대통령선거 여론조사들에 대한 메타분석 -)

  • Kim, Se-Yong;Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2009
  • For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

The Analysis of Screen Composition Method in 19th Presidential Candidate TV Debates (제19대 대통령후보 TV토론회 화면구성방법 분석)

  • Jang, Byung Min;Hwang, Dong Hyun;Choi, Seong Jhin
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2020
  • This study is based on the screen composition(shot size, split screen, candidate placement, lighting, stage) that fits the discussion process (round table, sitting, standing method) adopted from the 19th presidential candidates' TV joint discussion to analyze the adequacy and limitations of the methodology(design, candidate background, etc.). In addition, the progress and screen composition of the 45th US Presidential Candidates Debate in 2016 and the 25th Presidential Candidates of France TV Joint Debate in 2017 have been analyzed to compare and contrast the methods used in Korea. Through this, we apply the screening method to the 20th Presidential Candidate TV Joint Debate, which will be held in 2022, to fit the fixed discussion process that can fully identify candidates' qualities, policies, and vision.

Impact of Panel Attrition and Conditioning : The Case of KBS-MBMR's 2007 Korean Presidential Election Panel Survey (패널 이탈과 조건화의 영향: KBS-MBMR의 2007년 대통령 선거 패널조사 사례)

  • Huh, Myung-Hoe;Kim, Jee-Yeon;Lee, Ryang-Hoon
    • Survey Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2009
  • Even though panel surveys are very useful in estimating the change between time points, they suffer from sample distortion as survey rounds proceed due to panel attrition and conditioning. This study is to report the statistical aspects of KBS-MBMR's five-rounds panel survey for the 2007 Presidential Election of Korea. Main findings are as follows. First, the attrition propensities were higher among women, among the young and the old aged, and among "None"/"Don't Know"/"Won't Say"(DK) respondents for the question asking preferred candidate. Second, there existed the conditioning effect that pushes the respondents to choose one candidate in hurry. Third. repeated measurements of the survey did not influence panel respondents on the choice of preferred candidate. if DK respondents are set. aside, and on the final voting intention of panel respondents.

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The Comparison Between the Comments and the Replies on Korean President Election News: using Topic Modeling (대선 관련 인터넷 뉴스의 댓글과 대댓글 간 비교를 통해 살펴본 온라인 토론의 진행 가능성)

  • Lee, Jung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.33-55
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    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the comments and the replies on internet news related to the presidential election in order to verify whether online discussions are properly conducted. According to Habermas' public sphere theory, discussions is an effort among participants to reach a social consensus through the deliberations that are based on open communications. We propose that if such discussions properly take place through the act of writing in the Internet space, the comments and the replies will show a certain difference in terms of the structure and the content. To validate, this study analyzed more than 40,000 comments collected from Daum News portal site in Korea. The topic of the related news was the presidential election, because it is a topic of which people are highly interested in and that comments are actively running. The result of the t-test and topic modeling result show that all the hypotheses were supported thus we conclude that online discussions properly took places. This study also showed that online comments are not chaotic remarks that relieve people's stresses, but rather an outcome of the deliberation processes moving towards a social consensus.

A Study on the Early Computer Utilization in Korean Broadcasting: Focusing on the History of Election Broadcasting(1985-1992) (한국 방송에서 초기 컴퓨터 활용에 관한 연구: 선거 개표방송 변천사를 중심으로(1985년-1992년))

  • Nah, So-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2022
  • Today, each broadcasting station makes the best use of CG (computer Graphics), which is the latest technology in election broadcasting, and competes to attract the eyes of viewers. This paper investigated the history of CG technology and design transitions in election ballot counting broadcasts from the perspective of CG designers. From the 1980s, when computer-based election ballot counting began, to the full-scale use of virtual studios, the image and technology produced by CG while watching the ballot-counting broadcast video of general elections, presidential elections, and local elections. We analyzed the utilization from various angles. In Korea, we started with the EDDS (Election Data Display System) developed in-house, created a database using a computer, and introduced manual animation CG every day from that time. After that, broadcasting stations focused on diverse and gorgeous CG image competition, and CG images were expanded from 2D to 3D while technology and design developed together. From 1985 to 1992, Korean broadcasting can be seen as a transitional period in which the image changes due to the emphasis on information power while utilizing digital technology.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.