• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.17-33
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• 2011

A dynamical downscaling system for seasonal forecast has been constructed based on a regional climate model, and its predictability was investigated for 10 years' wintertime (December-January-February; DJF) climatology in East Asia. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the operational seasonal forecasting data, which are realtime output of the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Sea surface temperature was also obtained from the operational forecasts, i.e., KMA El-Nino and Global Sea Surface Temperature Forecast System. In order to determine the better configuration of the regional climate model for East Asian regions, two sensitivity experiments were carried out for one winter season (97/98 DJF): One is for the topography blending and the other is for the cumulus parameterization scheme. After determining the proper configuration, the predictability of the regional forecasting system was validated with respect to 850 hPa temperature and precipitation. The results showed that mean fields error and other verification statistics were generally decreased compared to GDAPS, most evident in 500 hPa geopotential heights. These improved simulation affected season prediction, and then HSS was better 36% and 11% about 850 hPa temperature and precipitation, respectively.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.125-137
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• 2013

Global warming and climate change have influence on abnormal weather pattern and the rainstorm has a localized and intensive tendency in Korea. IPCC(2007) also reported the rainstorm and typhoon will be more and more stronger due to temperature increase during the 21st century. Flood Estimation Handbook(Institute of Hydrology, 1999) published in United Kingdom, in the case that the data period is shorter than return period, recommends the regional frequency analysis rather than point frequency analysis. This study uses Regional Climate Model(RCM) of Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) for obtaining the rainfall and for performing the regional frequency analysis. We used the rainfall data from 58 stations managed by KMA and used L-moment algorithm suggested by Hosking and wallis(1993) for the regional frequency analysis considering the climate change. As the results, in most stations, the rainfall amounts in frequencies have an increasing tendency except for some stations. According to the A1B scenario, design rainfall is increased by 7~10% compared with the reference period(1970-2010).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.309-323
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• 2010

As climate changes and abnormal climates have drawn research interest recently, many countries utilize the GCM, which is based on SRES suggested by IPCC, to obtain more accurate forecast for future climate changes. Especially, many research attempts have been made to simulate localized geographical characteristics by using RCM with the high resolution data globally. To evaluate the impacts of climate and landuse change on water resources in the Han-river basin, we carried out the procedure consisting of the CA-Markov Chain, the Multi-Regression equation using two independent variables of temperature and rainfall, the downscaling technique based on the RegCM3 RCM, and SLURP. From the CA-Markov Chain, the future landuse change is forecasted and the future NDVI is predicted by the Multi-Regression equation. Also, RegCM3 RCM 50 sets were generated by the downscaling technique based on the RegCM3 RCM provided by KMA. With them, 90 year runoff scenarios whose period is from 2001 to 2090 are simulated for the Han-river basin by SLURP. Finally, the 90-year simulated monthly runoffs are compared with the historical monthly runoffs for each dam in the basin. At Paldang dam, the runoffs in September show higher increase than the ones in August which is due to the change of rainfall pattern in future. Additionally, after exploring the impact of the climate change on the structure of water circulation, we find that water management will become more difficult by the changes in the water circulation factors such as precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, and runoff in the Han-river basin.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.929-933
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• 2009

전 세계적으로 기후변화와 이상기후에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. IPCC(2001)는 "기후변화"라는 요소가 기온 증가, 강우강도 및 빈도 변화와 이들로 인한 증발산의 변화, 유출량의 시 공간적 변동을 초래하여 수자원의 효율적 관리 및 안정적인 공급에 어려움을 증대시킬 것으로 전망하였다. 이에 따라 세계 각국은 미래 기후에 대한 보다 정확한 정보를 얻기 위하여 IPCC 권장 시나리오인 SRES(Special Report in Emission Scenario)기반의 GCM(General Circulation Model)과 RCM(Regional Circulation Model)을 이용하고 있으며 특히, 최근에는 고해상도 자료를 생산함으로써 국부지역에 대한 지형학적 특성을 효과적으로 모의할 수 있는 RCM 모형을 이용한 연구가 국외를 중심으로 진행되고 있다(권현한 등, 2008). 본 연구에서는 미래 한강 유역의 수자원 변동성을 평가하기 위하여 CA-Markov Chain 기법으로부터 토지이용변화를, 기온과 강수자료을 독립변수로 이용한 다중 회귀식으로부터 미래 NDVI를 추정하고 기상청에서 제공하는 RegCM3-지역지후모형으로부터 축소기법을 이용하여 추정된 KMA RCM 50set 기후변화시나리오를 SLURP 모형에 입력하였다. 2001년부터 2090년까지 총 90년에 대한 한강 유역의 미래 유출모의를 실시한 후 각 댐별 과거와 미래 유출량을 월별로 비교하고 이들의 유황분석을 실시하였다.