• Title/Summary/Keyword: Joint Probability

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Approximate Calculation of Order Fill Rate under Purchase Dependence (구매종속성을 고려한 주문충족률의 근사적 계산)

  • Park, Changkyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2017
  • For the competitive business environment under purchase dependence, this paper proposes a new approximate calculation of order fill rate which is a probability of satisfying a customer order immediately using the existing inventory. Purchase dependence is different to demand dependence. Purchase dependence treats the purchase behavior of customers, while demand dependence considers demand correlation between items, between regions, or over time. Purchase dependence can be observed in such areas as marketing, manufacturing systems, and distribution systems. Traditional computational methods have a difficulty of the curse of dimensionality for the large cases, when deriving the stationary joint distribution which is utilized to calculate the order fill rate. In order to escape the curse of dimensionality and protect the solution from diverging for the large cases, we develop a greedy iterative search algorithm based on the Gauss-Seidel method. We show that the greedy iterative search algorithm is a dependable algorithm to derive the stationary joint distribution of on-hand inventories in the retailer system by conducting a comparison analysis of a greedy iterative search algorithm with the simulation. In addition, we present some managerial insights such as : (1) The upper bound of order fill rate can be calculated by the one-item pure system, while the lower bound can be provided by the pure system that consists of all items; (2) As the degree of purchase dependence declines while other conditions remain same, it is observed that the difference between the lower and upper bounds reduces, the order fill rate increases, and the order fill rate gets closer to the upper bound.

Joint Coverage and Radio Resource Management Scheme for Cellular CDMA Systems (셀룰러 CDMA 시스템을 위한 커버리지와 무선자원의 결합형 관리 기법)

  • Youm Dong Hwa;Uh Yoon;Kang Chang Soon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.29 no.10A
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    • pp.1139-1146
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    • 2004
  • An abrupt increase of traffic-load in cellular CDMA systems can cause overload, as a result, degrade the quality of service (QoS) and the spectrum utilization due to lacking radio resources in base stations. In this paper, we propose a joint coverage and resource management (JCRM) scheme which can improve the QoS degradation and the spectrum utilization. The JCRM scheme hands over the overloaded traffic to neighboring cells by virtually reducing overloaded cell coverage and extending neighboring cell coverage, as well the scheme allocates radio resources based on the necessary handover probability. The proposed scheme can be applied to the existing cellular CDMA systems as well as adaptive coverage management schemes for next generation mobile communication systems.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MANDIBULAR ASYMMETRY AND TEMPOROMANDIBULAR JOINT DISC DISPLACEMENT ON MRI (하악 비대칭과 자기공명영상에서의 측두하악관절 원판변위와의 관계)

  • Choi, Young-Yuhn;Huh, Jong-Ki;Song, Yeong-Bok;Gho, Won-Gyung;Kim, Hyung-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: This study was aimed to investigate the relationship between the mandibular asymmetry and the internal derangement of temporomandibular joint. Materials and methods: One hundred and sixty eight patients had been assessed through clinical examinations, panoramic radiographs and magnetic resonance imagings (MRIs), were selected. The samples were classified into three subgroups according to the severity of the mandibular asymmetries in the panoramic radiographs and the status of TMJ discs on the MRI were compared among each groups. Results: In an apparent asymmetry group, there was a significant difference in the number of temporomandibular disk displacement without reduction between the long and short side (66.7%, 18/27 joints on the short side) when the ratio of condylar process and coronoid process was used (p<0.05), but there was no statistically significant difference when the ratio of condyle and ramus was used. Conclusion: The probability of the disc displacement without reduction was higher at the side with relatively shorter condylar process on the panoramic radiograph, and also it might be more effective to use ratio of condylar process and coronoid process in the assessment of mandibular asymmetry. Therefore, a careful assessment on the temporomandibular disorders is necessary to diagnose and establish the treatment plans for the patients with a mandibular asymmetry and the panoramic radiograph can be used effectively on that way.

Determination of Design Flood Levels for the Tidal Reach of the Han River

  • Jun, Kyungsoo;Li, Li
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.173-173
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    • 2015
  • The flood water level in tidal river is determined by the joint effects of flood discharge and tidal water levels at downstream boundary. Due to the variable tidal boundary conditions, the evaluated design water levels associated with a certain flood event can be significantly different. To avoid determining of design water levels just by a certain tidal boundary condition and remove the influence of variability in boundary condition from the evaluation of design water levels, a probabilistic approach is considered in this study. This study focuses on the development of a method to evaluate the realistic design water levels in tidal river with taking into account the combined effects of river discharge and tidal level. The flood water levels are described by the joint probability of two driving forces, river discharge and tidal water levels. The developed method is applied to determine design water levels for the tidal reach of the Han River. An unsteady flow model is used to simulate the flow in the reach. To determine design water levels associated with a certain flood event, first, possible boundary conditions are obtained by sampling starting times of tidal level time series; then for each tidal boundary condition, corresponding peak water levels along the channel are computed; and finally, design water levels are determined by computing the expectations of the peak water levels. Two types of tides which are composed by different constituents are assumed (one is composed by $M_2$, and the other one is composed by $M_2$ and $M_2$) at downstream boundary, and two flood events with different maximum flood discharges are considered in this study. It is found that (a) the computed design water levels with two assumed tides have no significant difference for a certain flood event, though variability of peak water levels due to the tidal effect is considerably different; (b) tidal effect can reach to the Jamsil submerged weir and the effect is obvious in the downstream reach of the Singok submerged weir; (c) in the tidally affected reach, the variability of peak water levels due to the tidal effect is greater if the maximum flood discharge is smaller.

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Retrospective analysis of 8th edition American Joint Cancer Classification: Distal cholangiocarcinoma

  • Atish Darshan Bajracharya;Suniti Shrestha;Hyung Sun Kim;Ji Hae Nahm;Kwanhoon Park;Joon Seong Park
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.251-257
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: This is a retrospective analysis of whether the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) was a significant improvement over the 7th AJCC distal extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma classification. Methods: In total, 111 patients who underwent curative resection of mid-distal bile duct cancer from 2002 to 2019 were included. Cases were re-classified into 7th and 8th AJCC as well as clinicopathological univariate and multivariate, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log rank were calculated using R software. Results: In patient characteristics, pancreaticoduodenectomy/pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy had better survival than segmental resection. Only lymphovascular invasion was found to be significant (hazard ratio 2.01, p = 0.039) among all clinicopathological variables. The 8th edition AJCC Kaplan Meier survival curve showed an inability to properly segregate stage I and IIA, while there was a large difference in survival probability between IIA and IIB. Conclusions: The 8th distal AJCC classification did resolve the anatomical issue with the T stage, as T1 and T3 showed improvement over the 7th AJCC, and the N stage division of the N1 and N2 category was found to be justified, with poorer survival in N2 than N1. Meanwhile, in TMN staging, the 8th AJCC was able differentiate between early stage (I and IIA) and late stage (IIB and III) to better explain the patient prognosis.

Process Fault Probability Generation via ARIMA Time Series Modeling of Etch Tool Data

  • Arshad, Muhammad Zeeshan;Nawaz, Javeria;Park, Jin-Su;Shin, Sung-Won;Hong, Sang-Jeen
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2012.02a
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    • pp.241-241
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    • 2012
  • Semiconductor industry has been taking the advantage of improvements in process technology in order to maintain reduced device geometries and stringent performance specifications. This results in semiconductor manufacturing processes became hundreds in sequence, it is continuously expected to be increased. This may in turn reduce the yield. With a large amount of investment at stake, this motivates tighter process control and fault diagnosis. The continuous improvement in semiconductor industry demands advancements in process control and monitoring to the same degree. Any fault in the process must be detected and classified with a high degree of precision, and it is desired to be diagnosed if possible. The detected abnormality in the system is then classified to locate the source of the variation. The performance of a fault detection system is directly reflected in the yield. Therefore a highly capable fault detection system is always desirable. In this research, time series modeling of the data from an etch equipment has been investigated for the ultimate purpose of fault diagnosis. The tool data consisted of number of different parameters each being recorded at fixed time points. As the data had been collected for a number of runs, it was not synchronized due to variable delays and offsets in data acquisition system and networks. The data was then synchronized using a variant of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then applied on the synchronized data. The ARIMA model combines both the Autoregressive model and the Moving Average model to relate the present value of the time series to its past values. As the new values of parameters are received from the equipment, the model uses them and the previous ones to provide predictions of one step ahead for each parameter. The statistical comparison of these predictions with the actual values, gives us the each parameter's probability of fault, at each time point and (once a run gets finished) for each run. This work will be extended by applying a suitable probability generating function and combining the probabilities of different parameters using Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). DST provides a way to combine evidence that is available from different sources and gives a joint degree of belief in a hypothesis. This will give us a combined belief of fault in the process with a high precision.

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Quantitative analysis of drought propagation probabilities combining Bayesian networks and copula function (베이지안 네트워크와 코플라 함수의 결합을 통한 가뭄전이 발생확률의 정량적 분석)

  • Shin, Ji Yae;Ryu, Jae Hee;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.523-534
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    • 2021
  • Meteorological drought originates from a precipitation deficiency and propagates to agricultural and hydrological droughts through the hydrological cycle. Comparing with the meteorological drought, agricultural and hydrological droughts have more direct impacts on human society. Thus, understanding how meteorological drought evolves to agricultural and hydrological droughts is necessary for efficient drought preparedness and response. In this study, meteorological and hydrological droughts were defined based on the observed precipitation and the synthesized streamflow by the land surface model. The Bayesian network model was applied for probabilistic analysis of the propagation relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts. The copula function was used to estimate the joint probability in the Bayesian network. The results indicated that the propagation probabilities from the moderate and extreme meteorological droughts were ranged from 0.41 to 0.63 and from 0.83 to 0.98, respectively. In addition, the propagation probabilities were highest in autumn (0.71 ~ 0.89) and lowest in winter (0.41 ~ 0.62). The propagation probability increases as the meteorological drought evolved from summer to autumn, and the severe hydrological drought could be prevented by appropriate mitigation during that time.

A study of the Sampling Bias Correction on Joint Data from 1D Survey Line (1D 측선에 의한 절리 자료에 대한 편향 보정 기법에 관한 연구)

  • 엄정기
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.344-352
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    • 2003
  • The procedures to correct sampling biases for discontinuity data obtained from 1D survey line(borehole or scanline) is addressed. The Probability of intersection between the survey line and a circular discontinuity is considered, and a correction far orientation bias is developed assuming discontinuities as equivalent circular disks. The correction incorporates the effect of the angle between the direction of survey line and each discontinuity plane belonging to the discontinuity cluster, size of each discontinuity and length of the survey line. A procedure is provided to estimate unbiased discontinuity spacing parameters using the discontinuity spacing data based on the measurements carried out on a finite length of the survey line.

Optimization of GMAW Process Parameters to Improve the Length of Penetration in EN 10025 S 235 Grade

  • Deshpande, M.U.;Kshirsagar, J.M.;Dharmadhikari, Dr. H.M.
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.74-78
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    • 2017
  • In auto ancillary fabrication industry, GMAW is a very useful & important welding process and EN10025 S 235 Grade is common material used for manufacturing of two wheeler chassis. This research gives the detail influence of welding process parameters such as welding current, welding voltage, wire speed on the penetration in EN10025 S 235 Grade mild steel material. The experimentation of this research has been carried out by using three factors, three level Taguchi DOE method. To analyze & optimize the welding parameters & characteristics, analysis of variance, L9 orthogonal array & signal to noise ratio are used. Length of Penetration in addition to the depth of penetration is major concern in fillet welded joints, as the penetration decides the strength of the welded joint. After analysis of penetration in all 9 welded samples, optimize parameters readings verified & found probability value within 0.05.From this research it is come to know that welding current & welding voltage is major parameters which affects the penetration in welded joints.

A Distance Approach for Open Information Extraction Based on Word Vector

  • Liu, Peiqian;Wang, Xiaojie
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.2470-2491
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    • 2018
  • Web-scale open information extraction (Open IE) plays an important role in NLP tasks like acquiring common-sense knowledge, learning selectional preferences and automatic text understanding. A large number of Open IE approaches have been proposed in the last decade, and the majority of these approaches are based on supervised learning or dependency parsing. In this paper, we present a novel method for web scale open information extraction, which employs cosine distance based on Google word vector as the confidence score of the extraction. The proposed method is a purely unsupervised learning algorithm without requiring any hand-labeled training data or dependency parse features. We also present the mathematically rigorous proof for the new method with Bayes Inference and Artificial Neural Network theory. It turns out that the proposed algorithm is equivalent to Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the joint probability distribution over the elements of the candidate extraction. The proof itself also theoretically suggests a typical usage of word vector for other NLP tasks. Experiments show that the distance-based method leads to further improvements over the newly presented Open IE systems on three benchmark datasets, in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.