• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.47-52
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• 2017

The wave of democratization that started in southern Europe spread to South America and Asia, dismantling the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries and appeared as a Jasmine revolution in countries of North Africa and the Middle East. As a result, many scholars have actively carried out researches related to the sudden change of North Korea, while taking a cautious view that the Jasmine Revolution might occur in North Korea. The focuses of the studies were on the cause and timing of the sudden change and the main forces of the revolution in North Korea. There weren't enough discussions on how the process will be developed and whether there will be a system change. In this study, based on the results of analyzing the systematic changes of the Jasmine revolution nations, it suggested five scenarios that can be developed after the sudden change of North Korea. Scenario type I: Relatively peaceful and the possibility of regime change, Scenario type II: Reunification and then civil war, Scenario type III: Regime changed but one of Kim Il Sung family grabbing the power, Scenario type IV: Successful regime change but civil war happening, Scenario type V: Regime change failed and civil war continuing.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.63-68
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• 2017

The Jasmine Revolution started from Tunisia in January 2011 has brought many changes into countries in North Africa and Middle East. We need to study the causes of the revolution. First, the kings and dictators in those countries oppressed the opposition parties and the media aiming for long-term seizure of power. The power concentrated on specific people produced illegalities and corruption. Secondly, most of the national income of those countries belonged to kings and dictators producing problems during the distribution of the income. Especially, with the decrease of oil price in 1990s and the increase of the price of daily necessities in 2000s people lost their credits on their governments. Lastly, the number of people in those countries using the Internet has increased by 4,863% from 2000 to 2010. The expansion of social network services such as Facebook and Twitter was one of factors that made the information control by those countries difficult. We should think about the possibility of sudden change in North Korea. It is necessary to compare and analyze the political, economic and social characteristics between those countries and North Korea. It shouldn't be just a simple comparison or analysis. It should provide basic data for objective and quantified index development in relation to sudden change in North Korea.