• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.75-87
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• 2011

Congestion problems can be approached from the viewpoint of system dynamics theory. The relationship between road capacity and congestion can be explained by the 'relative control' archetype among four system archetypes suggested by Wolstenholme. There is a balancing feedback loop between road capacity and road congestion. However, there is another balancing loop between road congestion and car traffic volume, which keeps disrupting the equilibrium of the former loop. A system dynamics model, which is based on a partial adjustment model of induced traffic in the literature, is built to simulate three road building scenarios: 'Expanding investment', 'Balancing investment' and 'Frozen road investment' scenarios. The 'Expanding investment' scenario manages to drop congestion levels by 9% over 30 years, however, causing much higher emissions of $CO_2$ than other scenarios. The trade-off relationship between congestion levels and environmental costs must be taken into consideration for road investment policies.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07a
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• pp.539-541
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• 2001

This paper presents the investment level for DSM programs. To estimate the funding level We fix 2 scenarios to compared to investment level for DSM programs. The program budget ranged from 110 to 120billion won, which is equivalent to 0.5% of utility incomes.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.27-50
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• 2014

Korea government established the energy technology development plan (2011-2020) and declared to be a leader of the green energy technologies. The plan aims for 10% market share in the green energy industry, 12% energy efficiency improvement, and 15% greenhouse gas reduction. In order to achieve these goals, the government has tried to calculate the whole scale of national energy R&D investment, annual budget and specific expenditures for new technologies by computer simulation. The simulation modules include the R&D investment model, GDP model, energy consumption and $CO_2$ emission model by System Dynamics. Based on these simulation modules, I tested various scenarios for effectiveness of energy R&D investments until 2020. The results show that Korea should increase national energy R&D investment to 2.3 billion U.S. dollars, and switch the investment from electricity and nuclear power to the renewable energy.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.8
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• pp.3369-3377
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• 2024

As the realization of carbon neutrality has been a main assignment for coping with the global climate change, it became necessary to analyze upcoming changes in electricity mix with economic and technical viewpoints. This paper presents a newly-developed simulation model that reflects the daily intermittency of renewable energy by applying daily average power supply-demand patterns for each season. Also, the paper provides an economic analysis in the viewpoint of investment cost, annual cost and power generation cost by utilizing the calculations from the simulation model. Four scenarios are selected for the analyses, one based on the Korean Government's 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario and three Nuclear Power Build-up scenarios, which are newly suggested by the authors. The simulation results show that the increase of nuclear energy from 5.7% of Government's Scenario to 37.7% of the proposed Nuclear Power Build-up Scenario leads to the decrease of about 704 billion US$ in investment cost and about 181 billion US$ in annual cost; with reduction in the increase of 2050 expected generation cost from 3.1 to 1.6 times compared with the referenced 2021 average cost. Further, this study has significance in performing the economic analysis with the expected daily power supply-demand patterns in 2050.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.81-90
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• 2017

In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

• IE interfaces
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.318-325
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• 2001

In this paper, we estimate the investment cost for the IMT-2000 services in Korea. The network elements for the IMT-2000 system are drawn out and the required number of base stations(Node-B) is predicted by using the coverage of the base station. With the assumption of the 2-generation mobile communications network configuration, the number of radio network controllers(RNC's) and core network facilities is estimated. We also setup different scenarios by considering the utilization of the transmission facilities between base stations, RNC's and switching systems, and then evaluate the investment cost for each scenario.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.7
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• pp.8-16
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• 2021

The tourism industry is influenced by a large number of factors that affect the development scenarios of the tourism in different ways. At the same time, tourism is an important component of the national economy of any state, forms its image, investment attractiveness, is a source of income and a stimulus for business development. The aim of the article is to conduct an empirical study to identify the importance of cognitive determinants in the development of tourism. The study used general and special methods: systems analysis, synthesis, grouping, systematization, cognitive modeling, cognitive map, pulse method, predictive extrapolation. Target factors, indicators, and control factors influencing the development of tourism in Ukraine are determined and a cognitive model is built, which graphically reflects the nature of the influence of these factors. Four main scenarios of the Ukrainian tourism industry are established on the basis of creating a matrix of adjacency of an oriented graph and forecast modeling based on a scenario approach. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of their use to forecast the prospects of tourism development in Ukraine, the definition of state policy to support the industry that will promote international and domestic tourism.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.773-783
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• 1998

The heating system for apartment complex may be classified as old systems including central system with steam boiler(S1), gas engine driven heat pump system(S2), system using waste heat(S3) and new systems including mechanical vapor re-compression system with flashing heat exchangers(S4), system using methanol(S5), system using metal hydride (S6). The purpose of the present study is to suggest optimal heating system by technically, economically and environmentally evaluating old and new heating systems of apartment complex from 500 to 3,000 households. Economic evaluation based on the technical evaluation results which estimated heat transfer area of heat exchangers and capacity of equipments was estimated initial investment cost, annual operating cost and relative payback period by considering annual increasing rates of energy cost and interest. Environmental evaluation provided annual generation rate of carbon dioxide. Initial investment cost was cheap in the order of S6, S5, S3, S2, S4, S1, annual operating cost was cheap in the order of S1, S2, S4, S5 and relative payback period was short in the order of S6, S5, S2, S3 and S4. Relative payback period was within 8 years for all scenarios of 3,000 households, and was increased as annual increasing rates of energy cost and interest were increased. As transportation pipe length was increased twice, payback period was increased by 1.4~2.6 time. The effect of temperatures of waste gas and waste water on the relative payback period was small within 0.8 years. The annual generation rate of carbon dioxide was big in the order of S4, S2 and S1. S4 was the most economic system among whole scenarios when S1 was replaced with other scenarios.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.27-45
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• 2023

The importance of information security has grown alongside the development of information and communication technology. However, companies struggle to select suitable countermeasures within their limited budgets. Sönmez and Kılıç (2021) proposed a model using AHP and mixed integer programming to determine the optimal investment combination for mitigating information security breaches. However, their model had limitations: 1) a lack of objective measurement for countermeasure efficacy against security threats, 2) unrealistic scenarios where risk reduction surpassed pre-investment levels, and 3) cost duplication when using a single countermeasure for multiple threats. This paper enhances the model by objectively quantifying countermeasure efficacy using the beta probability distribution. It also resolves unrealistic scenarios and the issue of duplicating investments for a single countermeasure. An empirical analysis was conducted on domestic SMEs to determine investment budgets and risk levels. The improved model outperformed Sönmez and Kılıç's (2021) optimization model. By employing the proposed effectiveness measurement approach, difficulty to evaluate countermeasures can be quantified. Utilizing the improved optimization model allows for deriving an optimal investment portfolio for each countermeasure within a fixed budget, considering information security costs, quantities, and effectiveness. This aids in securing the information security budget and effectively addressing information security threats.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.302-306
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• 2004

Many long railway tunnels without emergency evacuation system or ventilation system are under construction or in-use in Korea. In the case of tunnel-fire, many fatalities are occur in current condition. Current safety level is estimated in this study, for the efficient investment on safety. But so many uncertainties in major input parameters make the safety estimation difficult. In this study, probabilistic techniques are applied for the consideration of uncertainties in major input parameters. As results of this study, accident scenarios and survival ratio under tunnel fire accident are determined for various conditions.