Facing the 4th Industrial Revolution era, researches on artificial intelligence have become active and attempts have been made to apply machine learning in various fields. In the field of finance, Robo Advisor service, which analyze the market, make investment decisions and allocate assets instead of people, are rapidly expanding. The stock price prediction using the machine learning that has been carried out to date is mainly based on the prediction of the market index such as KOSPI, and utilizes technical data that is fundamental index or price derivative index using financial statement. However, most researches have proceeded without any explicit verification of the prediction rate of the learning data. In this study, we conducted an experiment to determine the degree of market prediction ability of basic indicators, technical indicators, and system risk indicators (AR) used in stock price prediction. First, we set the core parameters for each financial indicator and define the objective function reflecting the return and volatility. Then, an experiment was performed to extract the sample from the distribution of each parameter by the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and to find the optimum value to maximize the objective function. Since Robo Advisor is a commodity that trades financial instruments such as stocks and funds, it can not be utilized only by forecasting the market index. The sample for this experiment is data of 17 years of 1,500 stocks that have been listed in Korea for more than 5 years after listing. As a result of the experiment, it was possible to establish a meaningful trading strategy that exceeds the market return. This study can be utilized as a basis for the development of Robo Advisor products in that it includes a large proportion of listed stocks in Korea, rather than an experiment on a single index, and verifies market predictability of various financial indicators.
This study develops a Korean R&D Scoreboard which has originated from the R&D Scoreboard in United Kingdom. The Scoreboard contains details of the R&D investment, sales, growth, profits and employee numbers for Korean companies which are extracted from company annual reports and key ratios calculated, with some movements over time. Companies are classified by the Korea Standard Industrial Classification. The Scoreboard contains 190 companies which consist of 100 largest companies and 30 middle-or small-sized firms listed in Korea Stock Exchange (KSE), and 30 ventures and 30 other firms listed in KOSDAQ. The overall company R&D intensity (R&D as a percentage of sales) is 2.1% compared to the international average of 4.2%. Korea has an unusually large R&D percentage of sales in IT hardware (4.9%) and telecommunication (3.7%). R&D intensity is positively correlated with company performance measures such as profitability, sales growth, productivity and market value. For largest companies listed in KSE and ventures listed in KOSDAQ, the ratio of operating profit to sales is greater for high R&D intensity companies. Sales growth is in proportion to R&D intensity for all companies. Plots of value added per employee or sales per employee vs R&D per employee rise together for the sectors studied, especially for the chemical sectors and automobile sectors, demonstrating a correlation with productivity. The average market value of high R&D companies in the KSE has risen more than 1.6 times that of the KOSPI 200 index. Given the correlation between R&D intensity and company performance and given that R&D is a smaller percentage of surplus (profits plus R&D) than international level (both overall and in several sectors), the challenges facing Korean companies are to maintain the leading position in IT hardware and telecommunication, and to increase the intensity of R&D in many medium-intensive R&D sectors where Korea has an average intensity well below international or US levels.
A survey was conducted to investigate the attitudes of pharmaceutical companies toward the status and permission of R & D of herbal products. The survey's results showed that some of them(42.9%) was conducting the R&D, and others(57.1%) were not conducting. As the results of analysis on the reason of R&D conducting, some of them(42.3%) answered that R&D of herbal products is more effective and powerful than these of synthetic products. And 23.1% answered that the cost of R&D is low and the time required is short. And another 23.1% answered that it has marketability and competitive power. As the results of analysis on the marketability of herbal products in Pharmaceutical Market, most of them(78.6%) answered that it seems enough. As the result of the comparison of synthetic drug and herbal products, the proportion of R&D investment on herbal products was lower than synthetic products in the preclinical study, the first clinical study and the second clinical study, and higher than in the third clinical study and the NDA. And the periods of R&D was long in most procedure except synthesis of new materials. As the results of analysis on the recognition of related regulation, most of them(73%) was yes. And 35.2% of the subjects thinks it enough.
In the last five years, Korea has supplied many more bicycle facilities than in the last several decades combined. However, have bicyclists increased in proportion to investment? If bicyclists are avoiding existing bicycle related facilities, including off-road bicycle facilities, it could be because suppliers did not consider bicyclists' preferences in their planning process. In this paper, the authors tried to understand the bicyclists' behavioral and route choice characteristics using stated preference surveys and a logit model, using commuting time in Daejeon Metropolitan City, Korea. The results show that nine factors affect the route choice behavior of bicyclists. In particular, bicyclists preferred sub-arterial roads to off-road, dedicated bicycle facilities in residential area. It means that bicyclists like a seamless bicycle route and that a buffer zone between car lanes and bicycle lanes or 50 km/h speed limits for cars are necessary for bicycle lanes that are not physical separated.
Purpose: This study aims to provide implications for the government's housing supply policy by analyzing the factors that determine the type of real estate holding and household debt. This study started from the awareness that the determinants of household debt differ depending on the type of real estate holding. Research design, data and methodology: Real estate ownership type was classified and analyzed into 4 models: model 1 (1 household 1 house and self-resident), model 2 (1 household multiple real estate ownership and self-resident), model 3 (1 household 1 house and rent residence), model 4 (1 household holds a large number of real estate and rent residence). The analysis method used multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable was household total debt. As independent variables, household debt, annual gross household income, financial assets, real estate net assets, annual repayment, demographic & residential characteristics were used. Results: 1) Model 4 has the highest household debt and the highest gross income, Model 2 has the most real estate mortgage loans and real estate net asset, and Model 1 has the highest real estate mortgage payments. 2) The positive factor of common household debt determinants is real estate net assets, and the negative factor is financial assets. 3) It was the net assets of real estate that acted as a positive factor in common for the four models. In other words, the more financial assets, the less household debt. It was analyzed that the more net assets of real estate, the more household debt. The annual repayment of financial liabilities had no influence on household debt, while the annual repayment of loan liabilities and household debt had a positive relationship. Conclusions: 1) It is necessary to introduce benefits and systems that can increase the proportion of household financial asset. Specific alternatives include tax benefits and reduced fees for financial asset investment. 2) In the case where a homeless person prepares one house for one household, it is necessary to prepare various support measures according to the income level. The specific alternative is to give additional points for pre-sale or apply an interest rate cut incentive for mortgage loans.
Purpose: The objective of this research is to find manufacturing employment clusters of the disaster safety sector in South Korea. Method: The LISA(Local Indicator of Spatial Association) analysis method is applied to the employment data of 229 local governments categorized by the 2019 Korean Standard Industry Classification and Disaster Safety Industry Special Classification. The LISA method identifies the spatial dependency of employment and the spatial cluster of industries. Result: Three research findings are summarized. First, employment of the disaster safety industry in South Korea occupies about six percent of the total manufacturing industry. The annual proportion is in increasing trend. Second, the employment cluster of the disaster safety industry is located in the western side of the Seoul metropolitan region. Third, manufacturing businesses of industrial safety goods preventing industrial accidents are concentrated in regions of Busan, Ulsan, Changwon, Gyeongnam, and Gimhae, where heavy and chemical industries and industrial complexes are formed. Conclusion: Investment and promotion policies are suggested to the manufacturing employment clusters of the disaster safety industry for fostering these regions. Research results can be used to the better policies for industrial development and employment improvement of manufacturing clusters of the disaster safety industry in South Korea.
This study aims to propose an optimal asset allocation that minimizes the risk of insufficient realized replacement rates compared to the OECD average replacement rate. To do this, we set the shortfall risk of replacement rates and calculates an asset allocation plan to minimize this risk based on the period of enrollment, the income level and additional contribution. We consider stocks and deposits as investment assets, using Monte Carlo simulation with a GBM model to generate return distributions for stocks. Our result show that, for individuals with a enrollment period of less than 30 years, participants should invest a minimum of 70-80% of their funds in risky assets to minimize the shortfall risk. However, the proportion of funds that need to be invested in risky assets declines significantly when participants contribute an additional premiums. This effect is particularly pronounced among low-income individuals. Therefore, to achieve OECD average replacement rates, the government needs to incentivize participants to invest more in risky assets, while also providing policies to encourage additional contributions, especially for the low-income population.
This paper studies the stock market in which there are two types of investor, institutional and individual, whose information gathering and processing abilities are different. The institutional investor manages large funds and has powerful information sources. Whereas, the individual investor trades with a small amount of money and an information disadvantage. The model assumes that the institutional investor is more experienced and able to acquire relevant information earlier than the individual investor. On these assumptions, this paper shows a price continuation in the short run and a price reversal in the long run. The price continuation, or momentum, in the short run can be explained as follows. The early-informed institutional investor trades a stock, and as a result the stock price changes. Then the late-informed individual investor trades the same stock, and the stock price continues to move in the same direction in the short run. The reason for the price reversal in the long run is that since the individual investor has inferior information on the fundamental value of the stock, he tends to overreact to new information. So the stock price changes over its fundamental value initially and then regresses toward its fundamental value. In sum, both the price continuation and the price reversal are caused by the overreaction of the individual investor. The essay illustrates how these phenomena are stronger in the case where the proportion of the individual investor is higher. It also shows how the stock price goes up when the institutional investor buys a stock, while it goes down when the individual investor buys one.
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
/
v.19
no.2
/
pp.318-328
/
2018
The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences in the characteristics of the aesthetic salon operation and job satisfaction according to important considerations in opening aesthetic salons as well as to provide basic data for improving the operation of the salons. Toward this aim, a questionnaire survey was conducted for owners of small aesthetic salons across South Korea from January-March, 2016. Results were as follows: Among those who identified means of transportation and parking convenience as key considerations in launching aesthetic salon businesses, length of service, length of business operation, monthly fixed revenue and proportion of the highest profit were highest. Job satisfaction (F=3.223, p<.05) was highest (M=4.11) among those that responded 'floating population' as a primary component in launching aesthetic salon businesses, and lowest among owners who mentioned 'cost of investment' (M=3.41). Specifically, job mobility (F=2.960, p<.05) was the highest among respondents who selected means of transportation and parking convenience (M=3.95) as key criteria in launching aesthetic salon business. For the stable operation of an aesthetic salon, a location with high floating population, good transportation, parking convenience, high levels of customer access, and job satisfaction are critical factors. In addition, future studies should examine marketing strategies by operating characteristics.
This paper analyzes the effects of nuclear power generation on industrial growth in using the data of 22 manufacturing sectors in 14 nuclear power countries. The hypothesis that the change in the proportion of nuclear power generation in total electricity generation affects industrial value-added and industrial output through industrial electricity price reduction was tested using the dynamic panel data model. First, it was estimated that the increase in nuclear power generation by a 1% leads to a 0.8% reduction in electricity price. The results indicate that when nuclear power generation increased by a 1% point, industrial value-added and output increased by 0.16% and 0.23%,respectively, in the short-run and by 0.51% and 0.85%, respectively, in the long-run. It was also inferred that the effect of nuclear generation on industrial competitiveness working through electricity price reduction rely on institutional settings in the electricity markets. That is, the competitive effect is greater in the countries such as U.K and Japan where electricity price is high and price volatility is large. Meanwhile, in Germany which has pursued phasing out nuclear power, industrial competitiveness is promoted through stable electricity supply.
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