• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.46 no.5
• /
• pp.83-98
• /
• 2021

This study aims to examine the effects of international trade in intermediate input on the implications of international business cycle properties in Korea. To do this, I have extended standard one goods New Keynesian international business cycle model to incorporate the role of intermediate inputs. After constructing the DSGE model, I have analysed the impulse response function and varian decomposition results. The results show that the model could introduce a new channel, that is, "cost channel" like Eyquem and Kamber (2014). In other words, the model has changed the dynamics of aggregate inflation by the cost channel. When the trade in intermediate goods increase, which is measured by openness of foreign input, the volatility of output, consumption and inflation increase two or three times. However, the model itself fails to explain the full account of cycle behavior of historical data, but the results imply that the trade in intermediate input assumption can help to improve the forecasting ability of international business cycle models.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.8
• /
• pp.225-231
• /
• 2020

The paper aims to investigate the impact of trade integration on business cycle synchronization for the East Asian countries during 2005- 2017 based on the endogeneity hypothesis of Optimum Currency Area criteria. We test the determinants of business cycles by calculating bilateral trade, financial integration, and business cycle synchronization. Applying the system Generalized Method of Moments for dynamic panel data models, the results show that business cycle synchronization is highly associated with trade and financial integration. These findings confirm the endogeneity hypothesis that more trade integration will mitigate asymmetric shocks, and have a positive impact on the business cycle synchronization. The increased trade intensity and financial linkage lead to more correlated business cycles in East Asia. Apart from trade and financial integration, the trade structure differential, monetary policy similarity also influence the business cycle comovement. The significantly negative impact of trade structure differential on business cycle synchronization suggests that countries with less similar structures are more likely to undergo asymmetric shocks. The results also indicate that monetary policy matters for output comovement. This study recommends that the East Asian countries should focus on bilateral trade as well as financial integration with each other to reap benefits from the integration process.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.931-941
• /
• 2021

The study focuses on the relationship between SB, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and the emerging economy. Thereafter it highlights the types, principles, and funding cycle of SB with the evidence from Grameen Bank, which is a globally well-recognized microfinance venture in Bangladesh established by the Nobel Laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus. This study employs qualitative analysis to illustrate an architectural overview of the SB model by collecting secondary data from various publications related to the topic and published data of Grameen Bank. Finally, this paper illustrates the SB model along with specified characteristics, systematic framework, and main approaches for sustainable context, which could be applied as a conceptual framework for SB in any context of the emerging economy. The findings of this study suggest that the SB model is the workflow having a hierarchy of five phases namely need identification, goal setting, solution-based business plan, business plan assessment, and business plan execution. Analyzing a range of social business interventions in a developing country, Bangladesh, through the lens of five key aspects demonstrates that social business is the most efficient way to sustainably maximize the social benefits and minimize specific social issues poverty of the people affected.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.327-346
• /
• 2023

In the recent 20 years, the capital flows between Korea and European Union have increased and diversified. In particular, the business cycles of two economies have shown similar patterns since the Global Financial Crisis. This study examines both trends and investigates the roles of finance and trade on business cycle co-movements between two economies. The empirical results show that the business cycles can diverge due to either the common shocks or the country-specific shocks. Furthermore, financial integration increases the business cycle co-movements driven by both the country-specific shocks and the common shocks between two economies.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.185-203
• /
• 2020

This paper investigates the connectedness among housing markets using the methodology developed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2016). In particular, we examine the international linkages among housing markets in Northeast Asian countries: namely, China, Japan, and Korea. The basic finding is that connectedness measures vary over the business cycle, with a surge during the global financial crisis. However, the international linkages among the three Asian housing markets seem rather weak. By including GDP in the model, we also find that housing market in one country is more affected by its own economic conditions than that of neighboring countries. Given earlier evidence that cross-regional spillover among domestic housing markets is high, this result suggests that housing market connectedness is more of domestic cross-regional phenomena, rather than international ones.

• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.23-32
• /
• 2018

Humane entrepreneurship is defined as "the pursuit of entrepreneurial growth and humane development for opportunity realization and sustainable organization." In this study, we evaluate and compare 19 countries by the degree to which 'humane entrepreneurship' is realized or emphasized. This study compares two factors of humane entrepreneurship, enterprise cycle and humane cycle, between different countries and examines a balance between the two. To make country-by-country comparison along humane entrepreneurship, we adopted Sethia and von Glinow's (1985) organizational culture model, which originated from Blake and Mouton's (1964) managerial grid model. Here, enterprise cycle and humane cycle of humane entrepreneurship correspond to concern for performance and concern for people. We suggest that keeping balance between humane cycle and enterprise cycle is important, because humane entrepreneurship is an internal condition for firm growth.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.15 no.3
• /
• pp.55-76
• /
• 2011

In this paper, we estimate a model that incorporates key features of business cycles, co-movement among economic variables and switching between regimes of expansion and recession, to aggregate quarterly data for the NAFTA region. Two common factors reflecting the permanent and transitory components of the business cycle in the region, along with the turning points from one regime to the other, were extracted from the data by using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation approach of Kim (1994). Estimation results confirm that a typical aspect of business cycles are also observed (i.e., recessions are steeper and shorter than recoveries) in the region, and that both co-movement and that regime switching are found to be important features of the business cycle. The two common factors produce sensible representations of the trend and cycle, and the estimated turning points are in line with independently determined chronologies. It also turns out that the degree of synchronization between the NAFTA region and Korea, has significantly increased since the entry into force of the NAFTA.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.103-128
• /
• 2013

This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation-specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.45-59
• /
• 2022

Purpose - This study investigates the performance of investment strategies incorporating estimated stock market cycle based on a lead-lag relationship between business cycle and stock market cycle, thereby deriving empirical implications on risk management. Design/methodology/approach - The data period ranges from June 1953 to September 2022 and de-trended short rate, term spread, credit spread, stock market volatility are considered as major input variables to estimate business cycle and stock market cycle by applying probit model. Based on the estimated stock market cycle, two types of strategies are constructed and their performance relative to the benchmark is empirically examined. Findings Two types of strategies based on stock market cycle are considered: The first strategy is to long(short) on stocks when stock market stage is expected to be an expansion(a recession), and the second one is to long on stocks(bonds) when expecting an expansion(a recession). The empirical results show that the strategies based on stock market cycle outperforms a simple buy and hold strategy in both in-sample and out-of-sample investigation. Also the out-of-sample evidence suggests that the second strategy which is in line with asset allocation is more profitable than the first one. Research implications or Originality The strategies considered in this study are based on the estimated stock market cycle which only depends on a few easily available financial variables, thereby making easier to establish such a strategy. It implies that investors enhance investment performance by constructing a relatively simple trading strategies if they set their position on stocks or choose which asset class to buy conditioning on stock market cycle.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.203-223
• /
• 2019

This paper examines the interactions between financial conditions and business cycles in Mongolia, a small open economy, heavily depending on commodity exports. We construct two financial conditions indexes based on the reduced form IS model and the vector autoregression (VAR) model as surveillance tools to quantify the degree of the financial conditions. We find that real short-term interest rate and real effective exchange rate gap get a higher weight in the FCIs. Both business and financial cycles are often more pronounced in Mongolia, and financial condition is dependent of the financial and monetary policies in place. The analysis of the predictive power of the FCIs for business cycles shows that they have predictive information for the near-term economic activities. FCIs are also helpful in signaling inflation turning points.