• Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.157-168
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• 2021

This study uses the benchmark interest rate of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to predict gold futures prices. For the predictions, we used the support vector machine (SVM) (a machine-learning model) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model. We found that the LSTM method is more accurate than the SVM method. Moreover, we applied the Boruta algorithm to demonstrate that the FOMC benchmark interest rates correlate with gold futures.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.3-19
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• 1991

This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.123-137
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• 2010

The main purpose of this article is for deriving functions related to the prediction of the closure of the hospitals, and finding out how the discriminant functions affect the closure of the hospitals. Empirical data were collected from 3 years financial statements of 41 private hospitals closed down from 2000 till 2006 and 62 private hospitals in business till now. As a result, the functions related to the prediction of the closure of the private hospital are 4 indices: Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. From these discriminant functions predicting the closure, I found that the profitability indices - Return on Assets, Operating Margin, Normal Profit Total Assets - are the significant affecting factors. The discriminant functions predicting the closure of the group of the hospitals, 3 years before the closure were Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and among them Normal Profit to Gross Revenues, Total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, Total Assets Turnover, Total borrowings and bonds payable to Revenues are the significant affecting factors. However 2 years before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure of the hospital were Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable and it was the significant affecting factor. And, one year before the closure, the discriminant functions predicting the closure were Total Assets Turnover, Fixed Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Total Assets, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues, Interest expenses to Total borrowings and bonds payable. Among them, Total Assets Turnover, Growth Rate of Revenues, Interest expenses to Revenues were the significant affecting factors.

• Journal of Venture Innovation
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.71-80
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• 2022

The real estate market is an important part of a country's economy and plays a major role in economic growth through the growth of many related industries. Changes in interest rates affect asset prices and have a significant impact on housing prices. This study analyzed housing prices by dividing them into nationwide, local, and Seoul housing prices in order to analyze whether the effect of changes in interest rates on housing prices shows regional differences. The analysis was conducted from the first quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2021, and was analyzed using the DOLS model. The main analysis results are as follows. First, interest rates were found to have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and a drop in interest rates significantly increased national housing prices and an increase in interest rates significantly lowered national housing prices. The consumer price index and loan growth rate also had a positive effect on housing prices nationwide, but statistical significance was not high. Second, interest rates had a negative effect on local housing prices, unlike national housing prices, but were not statistically significant. On the other hand, it was found that the consumer price index and loan growth rate had a larger and significant positive effect on local housing prices compared to national housing prices. Finally, it was found that the interest rate had the only significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. And this effect was greater and more significant than the effect on national and local housing prices. In the end, it was found that the effect of interest rates on Korean housing prices differs locally. Interest rates have a significant negative effect on national housing prices, and local housing prices, but they are not statistically significant. In addition, the interest rate was found to have the largest and most significant negative effect on housing prices in Seoul. In addition, it was found that there was a difference in the effect of macroeconomic variables on housing prices. This means that there are differences between regions with different factors influencing local and Seoul housing prices, and this point should be considered when drafting and implementing real estate policies.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.169-176
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• 2019

Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.505-523
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• 2009

We study the cost of capital of Islamic enterprise using the Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM). When there exists no risk-free interest rate, the security market line(SML) of Islamic enterprise shows an upward slope starting from the origin. The slope is bigger than that of SML with risk-free interest rate. This is because the cost of capital of Islamic enterprise is higher than that of western firms for the same level of systematic risk. When the effect of zakat is considered, the risk-free interest rate is replaced by minimum required rate of return. The SML of Islamic enterprise reveals an upward slope but it does not pass through the origin. This is because Islamic enterprise cannot invest on risk-free asset. In order to overcome the theoretic limits of CAPM, we propose to use multi-factor approach such as arbitrage pricing model instead of single-factor model for future study.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.99-116
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to see what the problem is and what the direction of the strategy of asset management after this study has analyzed asset management status of domestic life insurance companies according to interest rate trends, analyzing in time series management asset lists, asset distribution state, and securities list of life insurance companies during 2000~2014. It has carried correlation analysis and regression analysis between yield and bond interest KOSPI index. As the study result, life insurance companies have managed assets in stability than profitability. The correlation coefficient between interest rate and performance rates of total asset, management asset and securities is highly plus, correlation of management asset performance rate is higher than that of total asset performance rate, and the correlation of securities performance rate is higher than that of management asset performance rate. The correlation coefficient of KOSPI and performance rate shows minus. The suggestion is that the change of asset management is required as the interest decline rises up a reverse margin risk because of the asset management of stability.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.1-17
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• 2013

We investigate the appropriateness of the fixed 12% discount rate to be used in estimating the amount of compensation for revoking a license for fishery business by the Enforcement Decree of Fisheries Act in Korea. We also suggest the appropriate discount rate fully reflecting the change of market interest rate in the Korean financial market. The capital asset pricing model, or, CAPM is the best known model of risk and return, and is widely used to estimate the expected rate of return for the risky projects. Even though the CAPM implies that the discount rate or the expected rate of return should change as the related market factors do, the discount rate used to estimate compensation for revoking a license for fishery business remains to be the same 12% rate for the last 15 years by law. During this period, however, the yield to maturity for the 5-year government bonds in Korea has dramatically changed from about 12% to less than 3%. In order to provide the fair compensation for the damages against the coastal fisheries and evaluate the intrinsic value of fishery resources in the coastal areas, we suggest that the appropriate discount rate should be determined by the yield to maturity of the government bonds with 5-year maturity, instead of the current fixed 12% interest rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.7
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• pp.15-25
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• 2020

This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.181-187
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• 2023

The study aimed to study the effect of the inflation rate, the real domestic product, the interbank lending interest rate, and the total deposits on credit facilities in Jordan for 2012-2021 through quarterly data. The study adopted the ARDL model. The study used the time series analysis method, as the study tests the stationarity of the time series. The results showed that the impact of inflation on the total credit facilities was negative. In contrast, the impact of each of the total deposits, real GDP, and the interest rate of interbank loans on the total credit facilities was positive and significant. The study recommended the need for the banking sector in Jordan to develop risk management mechanisms in a way that allows it to adapt to economic cycles and crises by conducting stress tests and developing scenarios that ensure the formation of sufficient provisions to meet emergencies. The study also recommended that the macroeconomic policy should be based on creating a stable macroeconomic environment that allows the efficient employment of resources in all economic sectors in a way that achieves high economic growth rates, which contributes to the promotion of economic recovery and is reflected in income. Hence, individuals have a greater ability to repay loans.