• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2000.10a
• /
• pp.37-39
• /
• 2000

The purpose of this paper is to present a neural network model based on change-point detection for the prediction of the U.S. Treasury Securities. Interest rates have been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. Contrary to other chaotic financial data, the movement of interest rates has a series of change points due to the monetary policy of the U.S. government. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in interest rates forecasting. The proposed model consists of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in the interest rates dataset. The second stage is to forecast the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). The final stage is to forecast the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for interest rates forecasting using change-point detection.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.55-62
• /
• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
• /
• 2002.11a
• /
• pp.305-319
• /
• 2002

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term ＆short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo ＆ Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge md were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

• Journal of Science Education
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.198-215
• /
• 2012

Purpose of this study is to clarify the effect of creative science writing for interest of biology and scientific attitude on high school student. Creative science writing is a learning method to enhance comprehension and expression of thinking of science contents related to daily life. 148 students were recruited and divided into two groups, experimental group were experience creative science writing lessons. On the other hand, contrary group were applied interest enhancement lessons excepted creative science writing activity. To investigate the effect of creative science writing, interest check of biology was used, and scientific attitude test was used to understand changes in student's scientific attitude. Experimental group had taught using creative science writing and their awareness of the instruction was analyzed with questionnaire. As a result of this study, the class based on creative science writing was effective in improving high school students' interest in biology and in particular it was helpful in promoting interest in biology and learning of biology. It suggested that the class based on creative scientific writing used a new teaching method unlike existing methods, caused them to have interest in the instruction by making them express their daily life freely not to memorize learning contents, applied learning contents to daily life through many kinds of writings and then enhanced their interest in biology. Indeed, the class based on creative science writing had the positive influence on changes in the scientific attitude of high school students. Since creative science writing is writing one's own idea through extensive thinking based on learning contents, it was effective in arranging the process of thinking and changing their scientific attitude into positive one. Consequently, it was concluded from the above results of the research that the teaching using creative science writing was available as the effective teaching methods to improve high school students' interest in biology and change their scientific attitude into positive one.

• Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.348-358
• /
• 2022

This study attempted to verify the influence of appearance satisfaction on interest in eye makeup and makeup care behavior in female consumers and provide basic data which are needed to plan marketing strategies and develop cosmetics in the cosmetics market. For this, a questionnaire survey was performed against adult women in their 20-50s from the capital region. A total of 399 copies were used for final analysis, and the results found the followings: First, differences were found in appearance satisfaction, interest in eye makeup and makeup care behavior by general characteristics. In other words, interest in eye makeup started with 'self-care', showing interest in chasing a trend. Second, concerning the effects of appearance satisfaction on interest in eye makeup, as the respondents were more satisfied with their facial contour, they were more interested in eye makeup. Third, in terms of the influence of appearance satisfaction on eye makeup care behavior, as they were more satisfied with their skin conditions, trend-setting makeup care behavior increased. Consequently, increase in appearance satisfaction enhanced interest in eye makeup, having an influence on makeup care behavior.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.209-217
• /
• 2017

Recently SW education has been emphasized in Korea, but many students do not have many opportunities to learn computer science. In this paper, I organized a computer science show to enhance interest and understanding of computer science. The computer science show consisted of understanding binary systems, send a text message, parity bit magic, finding a number card, and collecting colors (orange games). I applied the computer science show to elementary school students and looked at the results. Most of the students who participated in computer science shows did not have an "participation experience of computer science shows". As result of surveys, many students answered "I am interesting about computer science shows," "I am interested in computer science," and "I would recommend it to my friends nearby." Through research, I learned that computer science shows are a way for elementary students to draw interest in computer science and to create curiosity and interest in computer science. I found from research that computer science shows are a way to reduce students' learning burdens and to increase interest in computer science.

• Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
• /
• 2000.04a
• /
• pp.235-241
• /
• 2000

This article suggests integrated neural network models for the interest rate forecasting using change point detection. The basic concept of proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change point, to identify them as change-point groups, and to involve them in interest rate forecasting. the proposed models consist of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in interest rate dataset. The second stage is to forecast change-point group with data mining classifiers. The final stage is to forecast the desired output with BPN. Based on this structure, we propose three integrated neural network models in terms of data mining classifier: (1) multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA)-supported neural network model, (2) case based reasoning (CBR)-supported neural network model and (3) backpropagation neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural networks (BPN)-supported neural network model. Subsequently, we compare these models with a neural network model alone and, in addition, determine which of three classifiers (MDA, CBR and BPN) can perform better. This article is then to examine the predictability of integrated neural network models for interest rate forecasting using change-point detection.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.119-128
• /
• 2004

This project was carried out under the assumption that applying a science history program to a teaching-learning process would lead to students' increased interest in science and increase the development of their scientific process skills. The project aimed at designing an effective science history program which would help to improve students' scientific process skills, to enhance their interest in learning science, and to maintain their inquiry learning abilities. The survey for the activity objectives was produced by the authors. The test items used for testing students' scientific attitude and scientific process skills were created by Korea National University of Education. The survey about scientific perception indicated that there was a meaningful difference of p=0.005 before and after implementing this program. The survey about scientific interest shows that students became interested in science, science-learning and science-related activities after participating in the science history program. Students' scientific process sills increased by 9% after the program was implemented in the subjects' classes. This indicates that the science history program was effective in improving students' science scientific process skills. Since this project, which targeted 8th grade science education activities, has proven to be effective, developing other programs suitable for younger and older students seems promising, too.

• The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.599-611
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of increased debt on the incidence of domestic violence over the two-year interval 2014-2016. To investigate Korean low-income households with economic hardships, we analyzed the 9th and the 11th waves of the Korea Welfare Panel Study, which is jointly sponsored by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and the Institute of Social welfare, Seoul National University. The study analysis was based on data from 2,786 households with less than 60% of median income. The main study findings are as follows. First, increases in economic hardships incur domestic violence for low-income households, while increases in low-interest debt decrease the incidence of the domestic violence when controlling for economic hardships. All other things being equal, economic hardship works as a stressor and low-interest debt works as an alleviator influencing domestic violence. Second, when low-income households are experiencing economic hardships, low-interest debt fails to work as an alleviator. Under this circumstance, high-interest debt actually acts as a stressor influencing domestic violence. Thus, we can speculate that use of debt under economic hardships will occur domestic violence for low-income households. This study differs from previous studies in that it examines the effect of increase in debt on the incidence of the domestic violence across different types of debt: low interest, high interest, and credit card. We can conclude that debt can function as a stressor or an alleviator for low-income households, depending on the interest rate and the households' financial situation.

• Journal of agriculture & life science
• /
• v.43 no.5
• /
• pp.33-38
• /
• 2009

This study purposed to examine how the window display of flower shops affects consumers' buying desire, and for this purpose, we surveyed flower buying customers' interest in window display according to their gender, age, and occupation. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire with flower shop customers in Seoul, Daegu, and Gyeongju. Interest in window display was over 1.5 times higher in women than in men. Among criteria for choosing a flower shop, window display was more important than other factors. With regard to experience of being stopped by unique window display, many of the respondents replied that they had such an experience, and the frequency was higher among women than among men. Among different types of window display, theme-type window display was most effective m stimulating customers' curiosity and buying desire. According to occupation, housewives showed particularly high interest in window display. The results of this study show that the window display of flower shops has a significant effect on consumers' buying desire.