• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.139-161
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• 2019

The utilization of the e-commerce market has become a common life style in today. It has become important part to know where and how to make reasonable purchases of good quality products for customers. This change in purchase psychology tends to make it difficult for customers to make purchasing decisions in vast amounts of information. In this case, the recommendation system has the effect of reducing the cost of information retrieval and improving the satisfaction by analyzing the purchasing behavior of the customer. Amazon and Netflix are considered to be the well-known examples of sales marketing using the recommendation system. In the case of Amazon, 60% of the recommendation is made by purchasing goods, and 35% of the sales increase was achieved. Netflix, on the other hand, found that 75% of movie recommendations were made using services. This personalization technique is considered to be one of the key strategies for one-to-one marketing that can be useful in online markets where salespeople do not exist. Recommendation techniques that are mainly used in recommendation systems today include collaborative filtering and content-based filtering. Furthermore, hybrid techniques and association rules that use these techniques in combination are also being used in various fields. Of these, collaborative filtering recommendation techniques are the most popular today. Collaborative filtering is a method of recommending products preferred by neighbors who have similar preferences or purchasing behavior, based on the assumption that users who have exhibited similar tendencies in purchasing or evaluating products in the past will have a similar tendency to other products. However, most of the existed systems are recommended only within the same category of products such as books and movies. This is because the recommendation system estimates the purchase satisfaction about new item which have never been bought yet using customer's purchase rating points of a similar commodity based on the transaction data. In addition, there is a problem about the reliability of purchase ratings used in the recommendation system. Reliability of customer purchase ratings is causing serious problems. In particular, 'Compensatory Review' refers to the intentional manipulation of a customer purchase rating by a company intervention. In fact, Amazon has been hard-pressed for these "compassionate reviews" since 2016 and has worked hard to reduce false information and increase credibility. The survey showed that the average rating for products with 'Compensated Review' was higher than those without 'Compensation Review'. And it turns out that 'Compensatory Review' is about 12 times less likely to give the lowest rating, and about 4 times less likely to leave a critical opinion. As such, customer purchase ratings are full of various noises. This problem is directly related to the performance of recommendation systems aimed at maximizing profits by attracting highly satisfied customers in most e-commerce transactions. In this study, we propose the possibility of using new indicators that can objectively substitute existing customer 's purchase ratings by using RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique to solve a series of problems. RFM multi-dimensional analysis technique is the most widely used analytical method in customer relationship management marketing(CRM), and is a data analysis method for selecting customers who are likely to purchase goods. As a result of verifying the actual purchase history data using the relevant index, the accuracy was as high as about 55%. This is a result of recommending a total of 4,386 different types of products that have never been bought before, thus the verification result means relatively high accuracy and utilization value. And this study suggests the possibility of general recommendation system that can be applied to various offline product data. If additional data is acquired in the future, the accuracy of the proposed recommendation system can be improved.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.191-206
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• 2022

Recently, it is a de-facto approach to utilize a pre-trained language model(PLM) to achieve the state-of-the-art performance for various natural language tasks(called downstream tasks) such as sentiment analysis and question answering. However, similar to any other machine learning method, PLM tends to depend on the data distribution seen during the training phase and shows worse performance on the unseen (Out-of-Distribution) domain. Due to the aforementioned reason, there have been many efforts to develop domain-specified PLM for various fields such as medical and legal industries. In this paper, we discuss the training of a finance domain-specified PLM for the Korean language and its applications. Our finance domain-specified PLM, KB-BERT, is trained on a carefully curated financial corpus that includes domain-specific documents such as financial reports. We provide extensive performance evaluation results on three natural language tasks, topic classification, sentiment analysis, and question answering. Compared to the state-of-the-art Korean PLM models such as KoELECTRA and KLUE-RoBERTa, KB-BERT shows comparable performance on general datasets based on common corpora like Wikipedia and news articles. Moreover, KB-BERT outperforms compared models on finance domain datasets that require finance-specific knowledge to solve given problems.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.259-278
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• 2022

With the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI), various AI-based services are expanding in the financial sector such as service recommendation, automated customer response, fraud detection system(FDS), credit scoring services, etc. At the same time, problems related to reliability and unexpected social controversy are also occurring due to the nature of data-based machine learning. The need Based on this background, this study aimed to contribute to improving trust in AI-based financial services by proposing a checklist to secure fairness in AI-based credit scoring services which directly affects consumers' financial life. Among the key elements of trustworthy AI like transparency, safety, accountability, and fairness, fairness was selected as the subject of the study so that everyone could enjoy the benefits of automated algorithms from the perspective of inclusive finance without social discrimination. We divided the entire fairness related operation process into three areas like data, algorithms, and user areas through literature research. For each area, we constructed four detailed considerations for evaluation resulting in 12 checklists. The relative importance and priority of the categories were evaluated through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We use three different groups: financial field workers, artificial intelligence field workers, and general users which represent entire financial stakeholders. According to the importance of each stakeholder, three groups were classified and analyzed, and from a practical perspective, specific checks such as feasibility verification for using learning data and non-financial information and monitoring new inflow data were identified. Moreover, financial consumers in general were found to be highly considerate of the accuracy of result analysis and bias checks. We expect this result could contribute to the design and operation of fair AI-based financial services.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.361-381
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• 2023

Research on corporate bankruptcy prediction has been focused on financial information. Since the company's financial information is updated quarterly, there is a problem that timeliness is insufficient in predicting the possibility of a company's business closure in real time. Evaluated companies that want to improve this need a method of judging the soundness of a company that uses information other than financial information to judge the soundness of a target company. To this end, as information technology has made it easier to collect non-financial information about companies, research has been conducted to apply additional variables and various methodologies other than financial information to predict corporate bankruptcy. It has become an important research task to determine whether it has an effect. In this study, we examined the impact of electronic payment-related information, which constitutes non-financial information, when predicting the closure of business operators using electronic payment service and examined the difference in closure prediction accuracy according to the combination of financial and non-financial information. Specifically, three research models consisting of a financial information model, a non-financial information model, and a combined model were designed, and the closure prediction accuracy was confirmed with six algorithms including the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) algorithm. The model combining financial and non-financial information showed the highest prediction accuracy, followed by the non-financial information model and the financial information model in order. As for the prediction accuracy of business closure by algorithm, XGBoost showed the highest prediction accuracy among the six algorithms. As a result of examining the relative importance of a total of 87 variables used to predict business closure, it was confirmed that more than 70% of the top 20 variables that had a significant impact on the prediction of business closure were non-financial information. Through this, it was confirmed that electronic payment-related information of non-financial information is an important variable in predicting business closure, and the possibility of using non-financial information as an alternative to financial information was also examined. Based on this study, the importance of collecting and utilizing non-financial information as information that can predict business closure is recognized, and a plan to utilize it for corporate decision-making is also proposed.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.37-51
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• 2015

Due to the development of internet technology and the rapid increase of internet data, various studies are actively conducted on how to use and analyze internet data for various purposes. In particular, in recent years, a number of studies have been performed on the applications of text mining techniques in order to overcome the limitations of the current application of structured data. Especially, there are various studies on sentimental analysis to score opinions based on the distribution of polarity such as positivity or negativity of vocabularies or sentences of the texts in documents. As a part of such studies, this study tries to predict ups and downs of stock prices of companies by performing sentimental analysis on news contexts of the particular companies in the Internet. A variety of news on companies is produced online by different economic agents, and it is diffused quickly and accessed easily in the Internet. So, based on inefficient market hypothesis, we can expect that news information of an individual company can be used to predict the fluctuations of stock prices of the company if we apply proper data analysis techniques. However, as the areas of corporate management activity are different, an analysis considering characteristics of each company is required in the analysis of text data based on machine-learning. In addition, since the news including positive or negative information on certain companies have various impacts on other companies or industry fields, an analysis for the prediction of the stock price of each company is necessary. Therefore, this study attempted to predict changes in the stock prices of the individual companies that applied a sentimental analysis of the online news data. Accordingly, this study chose top company in KOSPI 200 as the subjects of the analysis, and collected and analyzed online news data by each company produced for two years on a representative domestic search portal service, Naver. In addition, considering the differences in the meanings of vocabularies for each of the certain economic subjects, it aims to improve performance by building up a lexicon for each individual company and applying that to an analysis. As a result of the analysis, the accuracy of the prediction by each company are different, and the prediction accurate rate turned out to be 56% on average. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices on industry sectors, 'energy/chemical', 'consumer goods for living' and 'consumer discretionary' showed a relatively higher accuracy of the prediction of stock prices than other industries, while it was found that the sectors such as 'information technology' and 'shipbuilding/transportation' industry had lower accuracy of prediction. The number of the representative companies in each industry collected was five each, so it is somewhat difficult to generalize, but it could be confirmed that there was a difference in the accuracy of the prediction of stock prices depending on industry sectors. In addition, at the individual company level, the companies such as 'Kangwon Land', 'KT & G' and 'SK Innovation' showed a relatively higher prediction accuracy as compared to other companies, while it showed that the companies such as 'Young Poong', 'LG', 'Samsung Life Insurance', and 'Doosan' had a low prediction accuracy of less than 50%. In this paper, we performed an analysis of the share price performance relative to the prediction of individual companies through the vocabulary of pre-built company to take advantage of the online news information. In this paper, we aim to improve performance of the stock prices prediction, applying online news information, through the stock price prediction of individual companies. Based on this, in the future, it will be possible to find ways to increase the stock price prediction accuracy by complementing the problem of unnecessary words that are added to the sentiment dictionary.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.69-92
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• 2015

The explosion of social media data has led to apply text-mining techniques to analyze big social media data in a more rigorous manner. Even if social media text analysis algorithms were improved, previous approaches to social media text analysis have some limitations. In the field of sentiment analysis of social media written in Korean, there are two typical approaches. One is the linguistic approach using machine learning, which is the most common approach. Some studies have been conducted by adding grammatical factors to feature sets for training classification model. The other approach adopts the semantic analysis method to sentiment analysis, but this approach is mainly applied to English texts. To overcome these limitations, this study applies the Word2Vec algorithm which is an extension of the neural network algorithms to deal with more extensive semantic features that were underestimated in existing sentiment analysis. The result from adopting the Word2Vec algorithm is compared to the result from co-occurrence analysis to identify the difference between two approaches. The results show that the distribution related word extracted by Word2Vec algorithm in that the words represent some emotion about the keyword used are three times more than extracted by co-occurrence analysis. The reason of the difference between two results comes from Word2Vec's semantic features vectorization. Therefore, it is possible to say that Word2Vec algorithm is able to catch the hidden related words which have not been found in traditional analysis. In addition, Part Of Speech (POS) tagging for Korean is used to detect adjective as "emotional word" in Korean. In addition, the emotion words extracted from the text are converted into word vector by the Word2Vec algorithm to find related words. Among these related words, noun words are selected because each word of them would have causal relationship with "emotional word" in the sentence. The process of extracting these trigger factor of emotional word is named "Emotion Trigger" in this study. As a case study, the datasets used in the study are collected by searching using three keywords: professor, prosecutor, and doctor in that these keywords contain rich public emotion and opinion. Advanced data collecting was conducted to select secondary keywords for data gathering. The secondary keywords for each keyword used to gather the data to be used in actual analysis are followed: Professor (sexual assault, misappropriation of research money, recruitment irregularities, polifessor), Doctor (Shin hae-chul sky hospital, drinking and plastic surgery, rebate) Prosecutor (lewd behavior, sponsor). The size of the text data is about to 100,000(Professor: 25720, Doctor: 35110, Prosecutor: 43225) and the data are gathered from news, blog, and twitter to reflect various level of public emotion into text data analysis. As a visualization method, Gephi (http://gephi.github.io) was used and every program used in text processing and analysis are java coding. The contributions of this study are as follows: First, different approaches for sentiment analysis are integrated to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Secondly, finding Emotion Trigger can detect the hidden connections to public emotion which existing method cannot detect. Finally, the approach used in this study could be generalized regardless of types of text data. The limitation of this study is that it is hard to say the word extracted by Emotion Trigger processing has significantly causal relationship with emotional word in a sentence. The future study will be conducted to clarify the causal relationship between emotional words and the words extracted by Emotion Trigger by comparing with the relationships manually tagged. Furthermore, the text data used in Emotion Trigger are twitter, so the data have a number of distinct features which we did not deal with in this study. These features will be considered in further study.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.109-131
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• 2014

As the demand of nuclear power plant equipment is continuously growing worldwide, the importance of handling nuclear strategic materials is also increasing. While the number of cases submitted for the exports of nuclear-power commodity and technology is dramatically increasing, preadjudication (or prescreening to be simple) of strategic materials has been done so far by experts of a long-time experience and extensive field knowledge. However, there is severe shortage of experts in this domain, not to mention that it takes a long time to develop an expert. Because human experts must manually evaluate all the documents submitted for export permission, the current practice of nuclear material export is neither time-efficient nor cost-effective. Toward alleviating the problem of relying on costly human experts only, our research proposes a new system designed to help field experts make their decisions more effectively and efficiently. The proposed system is built upon case-based reasoning, which in essence extracts key features from the existing cases, compares the features with the features of a new case, and derives a solution for the new case by referencing similar cases and their solutions. Our research proposes a framework of case-based reasoning system, designs a case-based reasoning system for the control of nuclear material exports, and evaluates the performance of alternative keyword extraction methods (full automatic, full manual, and semi-automatic). A keyword extraction method is an essential component of the case-based reasoning system as it is used to extract key features of the cases. The full automatic method was conducted using TF-IDF, which is a widely used de facto standard method for representative keyword extraction in text mining. TF (Term Frequency) is based on the frequency count of the term within a document, showing how important the term is within a document while IDF (Inverted Document Frequency) is based on the infrequency of the term within a document set, showing how uniquely the term represents the document. The results show that the semi-automatic approach, which is based on the collaboration of machine and human, is the most effective solution regardless of whether the human is a field expert or a student who majors in nuclear engineering. Moreover, we propose a new approach of computing nuclear document similarity along with a new framework of document analysis. The proposed algorithm of nuclear document similarity considers both document-to-document similarity (${\alpha}$) and document-to-nuclear system similarity (${\beta}$), in order to derive the final score (${\gamma}$) for the decision of whether the presented case is of strategic material or not. The final score (${\gamma}$) represents a document similarity between the past cases and the new case. The score is induced by not only exploiting conventional TF-IDF, but utilizing a nuclear system similarity score, which takes the context of nuclear system domain into account. Finally, the system retrieves top-3 documents stored in the case base that are considered as the most similar cases with regard to the new case, and provides them with the degree of credibility. With this final score and the credibility score, it becomes easier for a user to see which documents in the case base are more worthy of looking up so that the user can make a proper decision with relatively lower cost. The evaluation of the system has been conducted by developing a prototype and testing with field data. The system workflows and outcomes have been verified by the field experts. This research is expected to contribute the growth of knowledge service industry by proposing a new system that can effectively reduce the burden of relying on costly human experts for the export control of nuclear materials and that can be considered as a meaningful example of knowledge service application.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.71-90
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• 2020

Recently, the global insurance industry is rapidly developing digital transformation through the use of artificial intelligence technologies such as machine learning, natural language processing, and deep learning. As a result, more and more foreign insurers have achieved the success of artificial intelligence technology-based InsurTech and platform business, and Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., China's largest private company, is leading China's global fourth industrial revolution with remarkable achievements in InsurTech and Digital Platform as a result of its constant innovation, using 'finance and technology' and 'finance and ecosystem' as keywords for companies. In response, this study analyzed the InsurTech and platform business activities of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. through the ser-M analysis model to provide strategic implications for revitalizing AI technology-based businesses of domestic insurers. The ser-M analysis model has been studied so that the vision and leadership of the CEO, the historical environment of the enterprise, the utilization of various resources, and the unique mechanism relationships can be interpreted in an integrated manner as a frame that can be interpreted in terms of the subject, environment, resource and mechanism. As a result of the case analysis, Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. has achieved cost reduction and customer service development by digitally innovating its entire business area such as sales, underwriting, claims, and loan service by utilizing core artificial intelligence technologies such as facial, voice, and facial expression recognition. In addition, "online data in China" and "the vast offline data and insights accumulated by the company" were combined with new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data analysis to build a digital platform that integrates financial services and digital service businesses. Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. challenged constant innovation, and as of 2019, sales reached $155 billion, ranking seventh among all companies in the Global 2000 rankings selected by Forbes Magazine. Analyzing the background of the success of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd. from the perspective of ser-M, founder Mammingz quickly captured the development of digital technology, market competition and changes in population structure in the era of the fourth industrial revolution, and established a new vision and displayed an agile leadership of digital technology-focused. Based on the strong leadership led by the founder in response to environmental changes, the company has successfully led InsurTech and Platform Business through innovation of internal resources such as investment in artificial intelligence technology, securing excellent professionals, and strengthening big data capabilities, combining external absorption capabilities, and strategic alliances among various industries. Through this success story analysis of Ping An Insurance Group Ltd., the following implications can be given to domestic insurance companies that are preparing for digital transformation. First, CEOs of domestic companies also need to recognize the paradigm shift in industry due to the change in digital technology and quickly arm themselves with digital technology-oriented leadership to spearhead the digital transformation of enterprises. Second, the Korean government should urgently overhaul related laws and systems to further promote the use of data between different industries and provide drastic support such as deregulation, tax benefits and platform provision to help the domestic insurance industry secure global competitiveness. Third, Korean companies also need to make bolder investments in the development of artificial intelligence technology so that systematic securing of internal and external data, training of technical personnel, and patent applications can be expanded, and digital platforms should be quickly established so that diverse customer experiences can be integrated through learned artificial intelligence technology. Finally, since there may be limitations to generalization through a single case of an overseas insurance company, I hope that in the future, more extensive research will be conducted on various management strategies related to artificial intelligence technology by analyzing cases of multiple industries or multiple companies or conducting empirical research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.35-52
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• 2019

As public services are provided in various forms, including e-government, the level of public demand for public service quality is increasing. Although continuous measurement and improvement of the quality of public services is needed to improve the quality of public services, traditional surveys are costly and time-consuming and have limitations. Therefore, there is a need for an analytical technique that can measure the quality of public services quickly and accurately at any time based on the data generated from public services. In this study, we analyzed the quality of public services based on data using process mining techniques for civil licensing services in N city. It is because the N city's building license complaint service can secure data necessary for analysis and can be spread to other institutions through public service quality management. This study conducted process mining on a total of 3678 building license complaint services in N city for two years from January 2014, and identified process maps and departments with high frequency and long processing time. According to the analysis results, there was a case where a department was crowded or relatively few at a certain point in time. In addition, there was a reasonable doubt that the increase in the number of complaints would increase the time required to complete the complaints. According to the analysis results, the time required to complete the complaint was varied from the same day to a year and 146 days. The cumulative frequency of the top four departments of the Sewage Treatment Division, the Waterworks Division, the Urban Design Division, and the Green Growth Division exceeded 50% and the cumulative frequency of the top nine departments exceeded 70%. Higher departments were limited and there was a great deal of unbalanced load among departments. Most complaint services have a variety of different patterns of processes. Research shows that the number of 'complementary' decisions has the greatest impact on the length of a complaint. This is interpreted as a lengthy period until the completion of the entire complaint is required because the 'complement' decision requires a physical period in which the complainant supplements and submits the documents again. In order to solve these problems, it is possible to drastically reduce the overall processing time of the complaints by preparing thoroughly before the filing of the complaints or in the preparation of the complaints, or the 'complementary' decision of other complaints. By clarifying and disclosing the cause and solution of one of the important data in the system, it helps the complainant to prepare in advance and convinces that the documents prepared by the public information will be passed. The transparency of complaints can be sufficiently predictable. Documents prepared by pre-disclosed information are likely to be processed without problems, which not only shortens the processing period but also improves work efficiency by eliminating the need for renegotiation or multiple tasks from the point of view of the processor. The results of this study can be used to find departments with high burdens of civil complaints at certain points of time and to flexibly manage the workforce allocation between departments. In addition, as a result of analyzing the pattern of the departments participating in the consultation by the characteristics of the complaints, it is possible to use it for automation or recommendation when requesting the consultation department. In addition, by using various data generated during the complaint process and using machine learning techniques, the pattern of the complaint process can be found. It can be used for automation / intelligence of civil complaint processing by making this algorithm and applying it to the system. This study is expected to be used to suggest future public service quality improvement through process mining analysis on civil service.