• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.177-192
• /
• 2016

Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.65-82
• /
• 2015

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in finding core issues and analyzing emerging trends for the future. This represents efforts to devise national strategies and policies based on the selection of promising areas that can create economic and social added value. The existing studies, including those dedicated to the discovery of future promising fields, have mostly been dependent on qualitative research methods such as literature review and expert judgement. Deriving results from large amounts of information under this approach is both costly and time consuming. Efforts have been made to make up for the weaknesses of the conventional qualitative analysis approach designed to select key promising areas through discovery of future core issues and emerging trend analysis in various areas of academic research. There needs to be a paradigm shift in toward implementing qualitative research methods along with quantitative research methods like text mining in a mutually complementary manner. The change is to ensure objective and practical emerging trend analysis results based on large amounts of data. However, even such studies have had shortcoming related to their dependence on simple keywords for analysis, which makes it difficult to derive meaning from data. Besides, no study has been carried out so far to develop core issues and analyze emerging trends in special domains like the aviation industry. The change used to implement recent studies is being witnessed in various areas such as the steel industry, the information and communications technology industry, the construction industry in architectural engineering and so on. This study focused on retrieving aviation-related core issues and emerging trends from overall research papers pertaining to aviation through text mining, which is one of the big data analysis techniques. In this manner, the promising future areas for the air transport industry are selected based on objective data from aviation-related research papers. In order to compensate for the difficulties in grasping the meaning of single words in emerging trend analysis at keyword levels, this study will adopt topic analysis, which is a technique used to find out general themes latent in text document sets. The analysis will lead to the extraction of topics, which represent keyword sets, thereby discovering core issues and conducting emerging trend analysis. Based on the issues, it identified aviation-related research trends and selected the promising areas for the future. Research on core issue retrieval and emerging trend analysis for the aviation industry based on big data analysis is still in its incipient stages. So, the analysis targets for this study are restricted to data from aviation-related research papers. However, it has significance in that it prepared a quantitative analysis model for continuously monitoring the derived core issues and presenting directions regarding the areas with good prospects for the future. In the future, the scope is slated to expand to cover relevant domestic or international news articles and bidding information as well, thus increasing the reliability of analysis results. On the basis of the topic analysis results, core issues for the aviation industry will be determined. Then, emerging trend analysis for the issues will be implemented by year in order to identify the changes they undergo in time series. Through these procedures, this study aims to prepare a system for developing key promising areas for the future aviation industry as well as for ensuring rapid response. Additionally, the promising areas selected based on the aforementioned results and the analysis of pertinent policy research reports will be compared with the areas in which the actual government investments are made. The results from this comparative analysis are expected to make useful reference materials for future policy development and budget establishment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.143-159
• /
• 2015

Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.19-28
• /
• 2012

After the internet era, we are moving to the ubiquitous society. Nowadays the people are interested in the multimodal interaction technology, which enables audience to naturally interact with the computing environment at the exhibitions such as gallery, museum, and park. Also, there are other attempts to provide additional service based on the location information of the audience, or to improve and deploy interaction between subjects and audience by analyzing the using pattern of the people. In order to provide multimodal interaction service to the audience at the exhibition, it is important to distinguish the individuals and trace their location and route. For the location tracking on the outside, GPS is widely used nowadays. GPS is able to get the real time location of the subjects moving fast, so this is one of the important technologies in the field requiring location tracking service. However, as GPS uses the location tracking method using satellites, the service cannot be used on the inside, because it cannot catch the satellite signal. For this reason, the studies about inside location tracking are going on using very short range communication service such as ZigBee, UWB, RFID, as well as using mobile communication network and wireless lan service. However these technologies have shortcomings in that the audience needs to use additional sensor device and it becomes difficult and expensive as the density of the target area gets higher. In addition, the usual exhibition environment has many obstacles for the network, which makes the performance of the system to fall. Above all these things, the biggest problem is that the interaction method using the devices based on the old technologies cannot provide natural service to the users. Plus the system uses sensor recognition method, so multiple users should equip the devices. Therefore, there is the limitation in the number of the users that can use the system simultaneously. In order to make up for these shortcomings, in this study we suggest a technology that gets the exact location information of the users through the location mapping technology using Wi-Fi and 3d camera of the smartphones. We applied the signal amplitude of access point using wireless lan, to develop inside location tracking system with lower price. AP is cheaper than other devices used in other tracking techniques, and by installing the software to the user's mobile device it can be directly used as the tracking system device. We used the Microsoft Kinect sensor for the 3D Camera. Kinect is equippedwith the function discriminating the depth and human information inside the shooting area. Therefore it is appropriate to extract user's body, vector, and acceleration information with low price. We confirm the location of the audience using the cell ID obtained from the Wi-Fi signal. By using smartphones as the basic device for the location service, we solve the problems of additional tagging device and provide environment that multiple users can get the interaction service simultaneously. 3d cameras located at each cell areas get the exact location and status information of the users. The 3d cameras are connected to the Camera Client, calculate the mapping information aligned to each cells, get the exact information of the users, and get the status and pattern information of the audience. The location mapping technique of Camera Client decreases the error rate that occurs on the inside location service, increases accuracy of individual discrimination in the area through the individual discrimination based on body information, and establishes the foundation of the multimodal interaction technology at the exhibition. Calculated data and information enables the users to get the appropriate interaction service through the main server.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.18 no.1
• /
• pp.23-38
• /
• 2012

There is a large difference between purchasing patterns in an online shopping mall and in an offline market. This difference may be caused mainly by the difference in accessibility of online and offline markets. It means that an interval between the initial purchasing decision and its realization appears to be relatively short in an online shopping mall, because a customer can make an order immediately. Because of the short interval between a purchasing decision and its realization, an online shopping mall transaction usually contains fewer items than that of an offline market. In an offline market, customers usually keep some items in mind and buy them all at once a few days after deciding to buy them, instead of buying each item individually and immediately. On the contrary, more than 70% of online shopping mall transactions contain only one item. This statistic implies that traditional data mining techniques cannot be directly applied to online market analysis, because hardly any association rules can survive with an acceptable level of Support because of too many Null Transactions. Most market basket analyses on online shopping mall transactions, therefore, have been performed by expanding the co-occurrence criteria of traditional association rule mining. While the traditional co-occurrence criteria defines items purchased in one transaction as concurrently purchased items, the expanded co-occurrence criteria regards items purchased by a customer during some predefined period (e.g., a day) as concurrently purchased items. In studies using expanded co-occurrence criteria, however, the criteria has been defined arbitrarily by researchers without any theoretical grounds or agreement. The lack of clear grounds of adopting a certain co-occurrence criteria degrades the reliability of the analytical results. Moreover, it is hard to derive new meaningful findings by combining the outcomes of previous individual studies. In this paper, we attempt to compare expanded co-occurrence criteria and propose a guideline for selecting an appropriate one. First of all, we compare the accuracy of association rules discovered according to various co-occurrence criteria. By doing this experiment we expect that we can provide a guideline for selecting appropriate co-occurrence criteria that corresponds to the purpose of the analysis. Additionally, we will perform similar experiments with several groups of customers that are segmented by each customer's average duration between orders. By this experiment, we attempt to discover the relationship between the optimal co-occurrence criteria and the customer's average duration between orders. Finally, by a series of experiments, we expect that we can provide basic guidelines for developing customized recommendation systems. Our experiments use a real dataset acquired from one of the largest internet shopping malls in Korea. We use 66,278 transactions of 3,847 customers conducted during the last two years. Overall results show that the accuracy of association rules of frequent shoppers (whose average duration between orders is relatively short) is higher than that of causal shoppers. In addition we discover that with frequent shoppers, the accuracy of association rules appears very high when the co-occurrence criteria of the training set corresponds to the validation set (i.e., target set). It implies that the co-occurrence criteria of frequent shoppers should be set according to the application purpose period. For example, an analyzer should use a day as a co-occurrence criterion if he/she wants to offer a coupon valid only for a day to potential customers who will use the coupon. On the contrary, an analyzer should use a month as a co-occurrence criterion if he/she wants to publish a coupon book that can be used for a month. In the case of causal shoppers, the accuracy of association rules appears to not be affected by the period of the application purposes. The accuracy of the causal shoppers' association rules becomes higher when the longer co-occurrence criterion has been adopted. It implies that an analyzer has to set the co-occurrence criterion for as long as possible, regardless of the application purpose period.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.99-120
• /
• 2010

Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.49 no.2
• /
• pp.51-60
• /
• 2021

Modern society is becoming more informed and intelligent with the development of digital technology, in which humans, objects, and networks relate with each other. In accordance with the changing times, a garden system has emerged that makes it easy to supply the ideal temperature, humidity, sunlight, and moisture conditions to grow plants. Therefore, this study attempted to grasp the concept, perception, and trends of smart gardens, a recent concept. To achieve the purpose of this study, previous studies and text mining were used, and the results are as follows. First, the core characteristics of smart gardens are new gardens in which IoT technology and gardening techniques are fused in indoor and outdoor spaces due to technological developments and changes in people's lifestyles. As technology advances and the importance of the environment increases, smart gardens are becoming a reality due to the need for living spaces where humans and nature can co-exist. With the advent of smart gardens, it will be possible to contribute to gardens' vitalization to deal with changes in garden-related industries and people's lifestyles. Second, in current research related to smart gardens and users' experiences, the technical aspects of smart gardens are the most interesting. People value smart garden functions and technical aspects that enable a safe, comfortable, and convenient life, and subjective uses are emerging depending on individual tastes and the comfort with digital devices. Third, looking at the usage behavior of smart gardens, they are mainly used in indoor spaces, with edible plants are being grown. Due to the growing importance of the environment and concerns about climate change and a possible food crisis, the tendency is to prefer the cultivation of plants related to food, but the expansion of garden functions can satisfying users' needs with various technologies that allow for the growing of flowers. In addition, as users feel the shapes of smart gardens are new and sophisticated, it can be seen that design is an essential factor that helps to satisfy users. Currently, smart gardens are developing in terms of technology. However, the main components of the smart garden are the combination of humans, nature, and technology rather than focusing on growing plants conveniently by simply connecting potted plants and smart devices. It strengthens connectivity with various city services and smart homes. Smart gardens interact with the landscape of the architect's ideas rather than reproducing nature through science and technology. Therefore, it is necessary to have a design that considers the functions of the garden and the needs of users. In addition, by providing citizens indoor and urban parks and public facilities, it is possible to share the functions of communication and gardening among generations targeting those who do not enjoy 'smart' services due to age and bridge the digital device and information gap. Smart gardens have potential as a new landscaping space.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2019

Big data refers to data that is difficult to store, manage, and analyze by existing software. As the lifestyle changes of consumers increase the size and types of needs that consumers desire, they are investing a lot of time and money to understand the needs of consumers. Companies in various industries utilize Big Data to improve their products and services to meet their needs, analyze unstructured data, and respond to real-time responses to products and services. The financial industry operates a decision support system that uses financial data to develop financial products and manage customer risks. The use of big data by financial institutions can effectively create added value of the value chain, and it is possible to develop a more advanced customer relationship management strategy. Financial institutions can utilize the purchase data and unstructured data generated by the credit card, and it becomes possible to confirm and satisfy the customer's desire. CRM has a granular process that can be measured in real time as it grows with information knowledge systems. With the development of information service and CRM, the platform has change and it has become possible to meet consumer needs in various environments. Recently, as the needs of consumers have diversified, more companies are providing systematic marketing services using data mining and advanced CRM (Customer Relationship Management) techniques. KB Kookmin Card, which started as a credit card business in 1980, introduced early stabilization of processes and computer systems, and actively participated in introducing new technologies and systems. In 2011, the bank and credit card companies separated, leading the 'Hye-dam Card' and 'One Card' markets, which were deviated from the existing concept. In 2017, the total use of domestic credit cards and check cards grew by 5.6% year-on-year to 886 trillion won. In 2018, we received a long-term rating of AA + as a result of our credit card evaluation. We confirmed that our credit rating was at the top of the list through effective marketing strategies and services. At present, Kookmin Card emphasizes strategies to meet the individual needs of customers and to maximize the lifetime value of consumers by utilizing payment data of customers. KB Kookmin Card combines internal and external big data and conducts marketing in real time or builds a system for monitoring. KB Kookmin Card has built a marketing system that detects realtime behavior using big data such as visiting the homepage and purchasing history by using the customer card information. It is designed to enable customers to capture action events in real time and execute marketing by utilizing the stores, locations, amounts, usage pattern, etc. of the card transactions. We have created more than 280 different scenarios based on the customer's life cycle and are conducting marketing plans to accommodate various customer groups in real time. We operate a smart offering system, which is a highly efficient marketing management system that detects customers' card usage, customer behavior, and location information in real time, and provides further refinement services by combining with various apps. This study aims to identify the traditional CRM to the current CRM strategy through the process of changing the CRM strategy. Finally, I will confirm the current CRM strategy through KB Kookmin card's big data utilization strategy and marketing activities and propose a marketing plan for KB Kookmin card's future CRM strategy. KB Kookmin Card should invest in securing ICT technology and human resources, which are becoming more sophisticated for the success and continuous growth of smart offering system. It is necessary to establish a strategy for securing profit from a long-term perspective and systematically proceed. Especially, in the current situation where privacy violation and personal information leakage issues are being addressed, efforts should be made to induce customers' recognition of marketing using customer information and to form corporate image emphasizing security.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.33-49
• /
• 2018

The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.239-251
• /
• 2019

Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.