• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.149-162
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• 2014

Course guidance is a mentoring process which is performed before students register for coming classes. The course guidance plays a very important role to students in checking degree audits of students and mentoring classes which will be taken in coming semester. Also, it is intimately involved with a graduation assessment or a completion of ABEEK certification. Currently, course guidance is manually performed by some advisers at most of universities in Korea because they have no electronic systems for the course guidance. By the lack of the systems, the advisers should analyze each degree audit of students and curriculum information of their own departments. This process often causes the human error during the course guidance process due to the complexity of the process. The electronic system thus is essential to avoid the human error for the course guidance. If the relation data model-based system is applied to the mentoring process, then the problems in manual way can be solved. However, the relational data model-based systems have some limitations. Curriculums of a department and certification systems can be changed depending on a new policy of a university or surrounding environments. If the curriculums and the systems are changed, a scheme of the existing system should be changed in accordance with the variations. It is also not sufficient to provide semantic search due to the difficulty of extracting semantic relationships between subjects. In this paper, we model a course mentoring ontology based on the analysis of a curriculum of computer science department, a structure of degree audit, and ABEEK certification. Ontology-based course guidance system is also proposed to overcome the limitation of the existing methods and to provide the effectiveness of course mentoring process for both of advisors and students. In the proposed system, all data of the system consists of ontology instances. To create ontology instances, ontology population module is developed by using JENA framework which is for building semantic web and linked data applications. In the ontology population module, the mapping rules to connect parts of degree audit to certain parts of course mentoring ontology are designed. All ontology instances are generated based on degree audits of students who participate in course mentoring test. The generated instances are saved to JENA TDB as a triple repository after an inference process using JENA inference engine. A user interface for course guidance is implemented by using Java and JENA framework. Once a advisor or a student input student's information such as student name and student number at an information request form in user interface, the proposed system provides mentoring results based on a degree audit of current student and rules to check scores for each part of a curriculum such as special cultural subject, major subject, and MSC subject containing math and basic science. Recall and precision are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed system. The recall is used to check that the proposed system retrieves all relevant subjects. The precision is used to check whether the retrieved subjects are relevant to the mentoring results. An officer of computer science department attends the verification on the results derived from the proposed system. Experimental results using real data of the participating students show that the proposed course guidance system based on course mentoring ontology provides correct course mentoring results to students at all times. Advisors can also reduce their time cost to analyze a degree audit of corresponding student and to calculate each score for the each part. As a result, the proposed system based on ontology techniques solves the difficulty of mentoring methods in manual way and the proposed system derive correct mentoring results as human conduct.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.131-154
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• 2022

Recently, researches on unstructured data analysis have been actively conducted with the development of information and communication technology. In particular, topic modeling is a representative technique for discovering core topics from massive text data. In the early stages of topic modeling, most studies focused only on topic discovery. As the topic modeling field matured, studies on the change of the topic according to the change of time began to be carried out. Accordingly, interest in dynamic topic modeling that handle changes in keywords constituting the topic is also increasing. Dynamic topic modeling identifies major topics from the data of the initial period and manages the change and flow of topics in a way that utilizes topic information of the previous period to derive further topics in subsequent periods. However, it is very difficult to understand and interpret the results of dynamic topic modeling. The results of traditional dynamic topic modeling simply reveal changes in keywords and their rankings. However, this information is insufficient to represent how the meaning of the topic has changed. Therefore, in this study, we propose a method to visualize topics by period by reflecting the meaning of keywords in each topic. In addition, we propose a method that can intuitively interpret changes in topics and relationships between or among topics. The detailed method of visualizing topics by period is as follows. In the first step, dynamic topic modeling is implemented to derive the top keywords of each period and their weight from text data. In the second step, we derive vectors of top keywords of each topic from the pre-trained word embedding model. Then, we perform dimension reduction for the extracted vectors. Then, we formulate a semantic vector of each topic by calculating weight sum of keywords in each vector using topic weight of each keyword. In the third step, we visualize the semantic vector of each topic using matplotlib, and analyze the relationship between or among the topics based on the visualized result. The change of topic can be interpreted in the following manners. From the result of dynamic topic modeling, we identify rising top 5 keywords and descending top 5 keywords for each period to show the change of the topic. Existing many topic visualization studies usually visualize keywords of each topic, but our approach proposed in this study differs from previous studies in that it attempts to visualize each topic itself. To evaluate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, we performed an experiment on 1,847 abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers. The experiment was performed by dividing abstracts of artificial intelligence-related papers into three periods (2016-2017, 2018-2019, 2020-2021). We selected seven topics based on the consistency score, and utilized the pre-trained word embedding model of Word2vec trained with 'Wikipedia', an Internet encyclopedia. Based on the proposed methodology, we generated a semantic vector for each topic. Through this, by reflecting the meaning of keywords, we visualized and interpreted the themes by period. Through these experiments, we confirmed that the rising and descending of the topic weight of a keyword can be usefully used to interpret the semantic change of the corresponding topic and to grasp the relationship among topics. In this study, to overcome the limitations of dynamic topic modeling results, we used word embedding and dimension reduction techniques to visualize topics by era. The results of this study are meaningful in that they broadened the scope of topic understanding through the visualization of dynamic topic modeling results. In addition, the academic contribution can be acknowledged in that it laid the foundation for follow-up studies using various word embeddings and dimensionality reduction techniques to improve the performance of the proposed methodology.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.329-352
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• 2022

It is reported that particulate matter(PM) penetrates the lungs and blood vessels and causes various heart diseases and respiratory diseases such as lung cancer. The subway is a means of transportation used by an average of 10 million people a day, and although it is important to create a clean and comfortable environment, the level of particulate matter pollution is shown to be high. It is because the subways run through an underground tunnel and the particulate matter trapped in the tunnel moves to the underground station due to the train wind. The Ministry of Environment and the Seoul Metropolitan Government are making various efforts to reduce PM concentration by establishing measures to improve air quality at underground stations. The smart air quality management system is a system that manages air quality in advance by collecting air quality data, analyzing and predicting the PM concentration. The prediction model of the PM concentration is an important component of this system. Various studies on time series data prediction are being conducted, but in relation to the PM prediction in subway stations, it is limited to statistical or recurrent neural network-based deep learning model researches. Therefore, in this study, we propose four transformer-based models including spatiotemporal transformers. As a result of performing PM concentration prediction experiments in the waiting rooms of subway stations in Seoul, it was confirmed that the performance of the transformer-based models was superior to that of the existing ARIMA, LSTM, and Seq2Seq models. Among the transformer-based models, the performance of the spatiotemporal transformers was the best. The smart air quality management system operated through data-based prediction becomes more effective and energy efficient as the accuracy of PM prediction improves. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the efficient operation of the smart air quality management system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.125-148
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• 2018

Recently, as the demand for big data analysis increases, cases of analyzing unstructured data and using the results are also increasing. Among the various types of unstructured data, text is used as a means of communicating information in almost all fields. In addition, many analysts are interested in the amount of data is very large and relatively easy to collect compared to other unstructured and structured data. Among the various text analysis applications, document classification which classifies documents into predetermined categories, topic modeling which extracts major topics from a large number of documents, sentimental analysis or opinion mining that identifies emotions or opinions contained in texts, and Text Summarization which summarize the main contents from one document or several documents have been actively studied. Especially, the text summarization technique is actively applied in the business through the news summary service, the privacy policy summary service, ect. In addition, much research has been done in academia in accordance with the extraction approach which provides the main elements of the document selectively and the abstraction approach which extracts the elements of the document and composes new sentences by combining them. However, the technique of evaluating the quality of automatically summarized documents has not made much progress compared to the technique of automatic text summarization. Most of existing studies dealing with the quality evaluation of summarization were carried out manual summarization of document, using them as reference documents, and measuring the similarity between the automatic summary and reference document. Specifically, automatic summarization is performed through various techniques from full text, and comparison with reference document, which is an ideal summary document, is performed for measuring the quality of automatic summarization. Reference documents are provided in two major ways, the most common way is manual summarization, in which a person creates an ideal summary by hand. Since this method requires human intervention in the process of preparing the summary, it takes a lot of time and cost to write the summary, and there is a limitation that the evaluation result may be different depending on the subject of the summarizer. Therefore, in order to overcome these limitations, attempts have been made to measure the quality of summary documents without human intervention. On the other hand, as a representative attempt to overcome these limitations, a method has been recently devised to reduce the size of the full text and to measure the similarity of the reduced full text and the automatic summary. In this method, the more frequent term in the full text appears in the summary, the better the quality of the summary. However, since summarization essentially means minimizing a lot of content while minimizing content omissions, it is unreasonable to say that a "good summary" based on only frequency always means a "good summary" in its essential meaning. In order to overcome the limitations of this previous study of summarization evaluation, this study proposes an automatic quality evaluation for text summarization method based on the essential meaning of summarization. Specifically, the concept of succinctness is defined as an element indicating how few duplicated contents among the sentences of the summary, and completeness is defined as an element that indicating how few of the contents are not included in the summary. In this paper, we propose a method for automatic quality evaluation of text summarization based on the concepts of succinctness and completeness. In order to evaluate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, 29,671 sentences were extracted from TripAdvisor 's hotel reviews, summarized the reviews by each hotel and presented the results of the experiments conducted on evaluation of the quality of summaries in accordance to the proposed methodology. It also provides a way to integrate the completeness and succinctness in the trade-off relationship into the F-Score, and propose a method to perform the optimal summarization by changing the threshold of the sentence similarity.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.141-156
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• 2013

Researchers in welfare services of local government in Korea have rather been on isolated issues as disables, childcare, aging phenomenon, etc. (Kang, 2004; Jung et al., 2009). Lately, local officials, yet, realize that they need more comprehensive welfare services for all residents, not just for above-mentioned focused groups. Still cases dealt with focused group approach have been a main research stream due to various reason(Jung et al., 2009; Lee, 2009; Jang, 2011). Social Security Information System is an information system that comprehensively manages 292 welfare benefits provided by 17 ministries and 40 thousand welfare services provided by 230 local authorities in Korea. The purpose of the system is to improve efficiency of social welfare delivery process. The study of local government expenditure has been on the rise over the last few decades after the restarting the local autonomy, but these studies have limitations on data collection. Measurement of a local government's welfare efforts(spending) has been primarily on expenditures or budget for an individual, set aside for welfare. This practice of using monetary value for an individual as a "proxy value" for welfare effort(spending) is based on the assumption that expenditure is directly linked to welfare efforts(Lee et al., 2007). This expenditure/budget approach commonly uses total welfare amount or percentage figure as dependent variables (Wildavsky, 1985; Lee et al., 2007; Kang, 2000). However, current practice of using actual amount being used or percentage figure as a dependent variable may have some limitation; since budget or expenditure is greatly influenced by the total budget of a local government, relying on such monetary value may create inflate or deflate the true "welfare effort" (Jang, 2012). In addition, government budget usually contain a large amount of administrative cost, i.e., salary, for local officials, which is highly unrelated to the actual welfare expenditure (Jang, 2011). This paper used local government welfare service data from the detailed data sets linked to the Social Security Information System. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that affect social welfare spending of 230 local authorities in 2012. The paper applied multiple regression based model to analyze the pooled financial data from the system. Based on the regression analysis, the following factors affecting self-funded welfare spending were identified. In our research model, we use the welfare budget/total budget(%) of a local government as a true measurement for a local government's welfare effort(spending). Doing so, we exclude central government subsidies or support being used for local welfare service. It is because central government welfare support does not truly reflect the welfare efforts(spending) of a local. The dependent variable of this paper is the volume of the welfare spending and the independent variables of the model are comprised of three categories, in terms of socio-demographic perspectives, the local economy and the financial capacity of local government. This paper categorized local authorities into 3 groups, districts, and cities and suburb areas. The model used a dummy variable as the control variable (local political factor). This paper demonstrated that the volume of the welfare spending for the welfare services is commonly influenced by the ratio of welfare budget to total local budget, the population of infants, self-reliance ratio and the level of unemployment factor. Interestingly, the influential factors are different by the size of local government. Analysis of determinants of local government self-welfare spending, we found a significant effect of local Gov. Finance characteristic in degree of the local government's financial independence, financial independence rate, rate of social welfare budget, and regional economic in opening-to-application ratio, and sociology of population in rate of infants. The result means that local authorities should have differentiated welfare strategies according to their conditions and circumstances. There is a meaning that this paper has successfully proven the significant factors influencing welfare spending of local government in Korea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.25-38
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• 2019

Selecting high-quality information that meets the interests and needs of users among the overflowing contents is becoming more important as the generation continues. In the flood of information, efforts to reflect the intention of the user in the search result better are being tried, rather than recognizing the information request as a simple string. Also, large IT companies such as Google and Microsoft focus on developing knowledge-based technologies including search engines which provide users with satisfaction and convenience. Especially, the finance is one of the fields expected to have the usefulness and potential of text data analysis because it's constantly generating new information, and the earlier the information is, the more valuable it is. Automatic knowledge extraction can be effective in areas where information flow is vast, such as financial sector, and new information continues to emerge. However, there are several practical difficulties faced by automatic knowledge extraction. First, there are difficulties in making corpus from different fields with same algorithm, and it is difficult to extract good quality triple. Second, it becomes more difficult to produce labeled text data by people if the extent and scope of knowledge increases and patterns are constantly updated. Third, performance evaluation is difficult due to the characteristics of unsupervised learning. Finally, problem definition for automatic knowledge extraction is not easy because of ambiguous conceptual characteristics of knowledge. So, in order to overcome limits described above and improve the semantic performance of stock-related information searching, this study attempts to extract the knowledge entity by using neural tensor network and evaluate the performance of them. Different from other references, the purpose of this study is to extract knowledge entity which is related to individual stock items. Various but relatively simple data processing methods are applied in the presented model to solve the problems of previous researches and to enhance the effectiveness of the model. From these processes, this study has the following three significances. First, A practical and simple automatic knowledge extraction method that can be applied. Second, the possibility of performance evaluation is presented through simple problem definition. Finally, the expressiveness of the knowledge increased by generating input data on a sentence basis without complex morphological analysis. The results of the empirical analysis and objective performance evaluation method are also presented. The empirical study to confirm the usefulness of the presented model, experts' reports about individual 30 stocks which are top 30 items based on frequency of publication from May 30, 2017 to May 21, 2018 are used. the total number of reports are 5,600, and 3,074 reports, which accounts about 55% of the total, is designated as a training set, and other 45% of reports are designated as a testing set. Before constructing the model, all reports of a training set are classified by stocks, and their entities are extracted using named entity recognition tool which is the KKMA. for each stocks, top 100 entities based on appearance frequency are selected, and become vectorized using one-hot encoding. After that, by using neural tensor network, the same number of score functions as stocks are trained. Thus, if a new entity from a testing set appears, we can try to calculate the score by putting it into every single score function, and the stock of the function with the highest score is predicted as the related item with the entity. To evaluate presented models, we confirm prediction power and determining whether the score functions are well constructed by calculating hit ratio for all reports of testing set. As a result of the empirical study, the presented model shows 69.3% hit accuracy for testing set which consists of 2,526 reports. this hit ratio is meaningfully high despite of some constraints for conducting research. Looking at the prediction performance of the model for each stocks, only 3 stocks, which are LG ELECTRONICS, KiaMtr, and Mando, show extremely low performance than average. this result maybe due to the interference effect with other similar items and generation of new knowledge. In this paper, we propose a methodology to find out key entities or their combinations which are necessary to search related information in accordance with the user's investment intention. Graph data is generated by using only the named entity recognition tool and applied to the neural tensor network without learning corpus or word vectors for the field. From the empirical test, we confirm the effectiveness of the presented model as described above. However, there also exist some limits and things to complement. Representatively, the phenomenon that the model performance is especially bad for only some stocks shows the need for further researches. Finally, through the empirical study, we confirmed that the learning method presented in this study can be used for the purpose of matching the new text information semantically with the related stocks.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.33-49
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• 2018

The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.201-220
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• 2019

Fake news has emerged as a significant issue over the last few years, igniting discussions and research on how to solve this problem. In particular, studies on automated fact-checking and fake news detection using artificial intelligence and text analysis techniques have drawn attention. Fake news detection research entails a form of document classification; thus, document classification techniques have been widely used in this type of research. However, document summarization techniques have been inconspicuous in this field. At the same time, automatic news summarization services have become popular, and a recent study found that the use of news summarized through abstractive summarization has strengthened the predictive performance of fake news detection models. Therefore, the need to study the integration of document summarization technology in the domestic news data environment has become evident. In order to examine the effect of extractive summarization on the fake news detection model, we first summarized news articles through extractive summarization. Second, we created a summarized news-based detection model. Finally, we compared our model with the full-text-based detection model. The study found that BPN(Back Propagation Neural Network) and SVM(Support Vector Machine) did not exhibit a large difference in performance; however, for DT(Decision Tree), the full-text-based model demonstrated a somewhat better performance. In the case of LR(Logistic Regression), our model exhibited the superior performance. Nonetheless, the results did not show a statistically significant difference between our model and the full-text-based model. Therefore, when the summary is applied, at least the core information of the fake news is preserved, and the LR-based model can confirm the possibility of performance improvement. This study features an experimental application of extractive summarization in fake news detection research by employing various machine-learning algorithms. The study's limitations are, essentially, the relatively small amount of data and the lack of comparison between various summarization technologies. Therefore, an in-depth analysis that applies various analytical techniques to a larger data volume would be helpful in the future.