• 제목/요약/키워드: Integrated risk analysis

검색결과 326건 처리시간 0.021초

판별분석을 이용한 고속도로 교량영향권역 교통사고 특성분석에 관한 연구 (Crash Characteristics within the Bridge Influence Area of Expressway Using the Discriminant Analysis)

  • 박제진
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : The bridge section of the expressway has a worse driving environment than the general section. However, traffic safety countermeasures are focused only on the bridge section. Traffic safety countermeasures on the section before entry to the bridge and the section after exit from the bridge are applied only when the bridge has a long-span section. Accordingly, this study will verify the necessity of extending the application of traffic safety countermeasures to areas that are affected by the bridge. METHODS : This study determines the areas that are affected by the bridge as well as the areas that are affected by locations with frequent traffic accidents and suggests the risk factors by affected areas through canonical discriminant analysis. For the analysis, traffic accident data for 3 years, which occurred on bridge sections in six major expressway lines, were used. RESULTS : The numbers of traffic accidents were 469 before the bridge, 281 on the bridge, and 468 after the bridge. The variables that have impact on the seriousness of accidents are as follows: speeding, excess manipulation of the steering wheel, and failure to secure safety distance for accidents that occurred before the bridge section; speeding, excess manipulation of the steering wheel, and dozing off for accidents that occurred on the bridge; and speeding and failure to secure safety distance for accidents that occurred after the bridge section. CONCLUSIONS : Areas affected by the bridge show higher accident rates than the bridge section; therefore, imposing traffic safety countermeasures on the integrated section of the bridge and the affected areas is required. It is believed that the results suggested in this study could be effectively used in the prevention of traffic accidents by imposing custom-made safety countermeasures for each section.

유착성 관절낭염에 대한 추나요법의 효과: 체계적 문헌고찰과 메타분석 (Chuna Manual Therapy for Adhesive Capsulitis : A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis)

  • 조주찬;허인;박선영;신병철
    • 척추신경추나의학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : To evaluate the effectiveness of Chuna Manual Therapy for adhesive capsulitis by a systematic review manner. Methods : Five foreign electronic databases (Pubmed, Ovid-medline, Embase, Cochrane library, Chinese Academic Journals (CAJ)) and two Korean medical electronic databases (Oriental Medicine Advanced Searching Integrated System (OASIS) and Research Information Sharing Service (RISS)) were searched to find all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using Chuna Manual Therapy as a treatment for adhesive capsulitis. The methodological quality of each RCT was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Results : Twenty-one RCTs met our inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis showed positive results on the use of Chuna Manual Therapy combined with acupuncture or exercise therapy in terms of the efficacy rate and pain using the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), compared to acupuncture or exercise alone [SMD-1.81 (95% CI & -2.54, -1.08), P<0.001, RR 1.19 (95% CI 1.14, 1.23), P<0.001)]. Positive results in terms of efficacy rate were also obtained comparing Chuna Manual Therapy to acupuncture alone [RR 1.10 (95% CI 1.02, 1.18), P=0.01]. Conclusions : Our systematic review found favorable results on the effectiveness of Chuna Manual Therapy for pain and efficacy rate of adhesive capsulitis. However, evidence was limited due to the lack of well-designed RCTs. More qualified clinical trials are needed to obtain stronger evidence.

하둡 기반의 효율적인 보안로그 분석시스템 설계 및 구현 (Design and Implementation of a Hadoop-based Efficient Security Log Analysis System)

  • 안광민;이종윤;양동민;이봉환
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제19권8호
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    • pp.1797-1804
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    • 2015
  • 통합로그관리시스템은 보안 위험 사항을 예측하고 기관의 보안성 향상에 기여하여 적합한 보안 정책을 마련할 수 있도록 도와준다. 본 논문에서는 대용량의 로그 데이터를 저장할 수 있는 분산 데이터베이스 모델과 로그 수집 절차를 자동화하여 분석 시간을 줄일 수 있는 하둡 기반의 로그 분석 시스템을 설계하고 구현하였다. 제안하는 시스템에서는 HBase를 사용하여 데이터 용량에 따라 Scale-Out 방식으로 유연하게 저장할 수 있게 하였고 정규식을 이용하여 분석에 용이한 저장 기법을 제안하여 기존 시스템 대비 분석 속도를 높일 수 있다.

SWAT-CUP을 이용한 유출 및 유사모의 불확실성 분석 (Uncertainty Analysis on the Simulations of Runoff and Sediment Using SWAT-CUP)

  • 김민호;허태영;정세웅
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2013
  • Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.

고장 데이터의 확률 분석을 적용한 항공기 시스템 안전성 평가 수행 방안 연구 (A Study on the Implementation of Aircraft System Safety Assessment using Probabilistic Analysis of Failure Data)

  • 유승우;김인걸
    • 항공우주시스템공학회지
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    • 제14권spc호
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2020
  • 항공기의 개발 및 인증 과정에서 중요성이 강조되고 있는 시스템 안전성 평가는 고장 또는 결함으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 위험을 사전에 식별하고, 이에 대한 영향성을 판단하여 요구되는 수준의 안전성을 확보하기 위해 적용하는 시스템 엔지니어링 기법이다. 항공기 시스템이 복잡해지고, 통합적인 기능 및 성능이 요구되면서 항공기 개발 초기부터 적절한 안전성 목표를 수립하고, 체계적인 평가를 통해 이에 대한 검증 및 후속 조치를 이행하여야 한다. 본 논문에서는 고장 데이터의 확률 분석을 수행하는 방안을 제시하여 항공기의 전체 수명주기에 걸쳐 리스크를 진단하고 효율적인 안전성 평가를 수행하기 위한 방법론을 제시하였고, 항공기 인증 및 안전성 확보를 위해 고려해야 할 사항을 제시하였다.

ESG투자를 통한 최적자산배분과 후생개선 요인분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Analysis of Optimal Asset Allocation and Welfare Improvemant Factors through ESG Investment)

  • 현상균;이정석;이준희
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제51권2호
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: First, this paper suggests an alternative approach to find optimal portfolio (stocks, bonds and ESG stocks) under the maximizing utility of investors. Second, we include ESG stocks in our optimal portfolio, and compare improvement of welfares in the case with and without ESG stocks in portfolio. Methods: Our main method of analysis follows Brennan et al(2002), designed under the continuous time framework. We assume that the dynamics of stock price follow the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) while the short rate have the Vasicek model. For the utility function of investors, we use the Power Utility Function, which commonly used in financial studies. The optimal portfolio and welfares are derived in the partial equilibrium. The parameters are estimated by using Kalman filter and ordinary least square method. Results: During the overall analysis period, the portfolio including ESG, did not show clear welfare improvement. In 2017, it has slightly exceeded this benchmark 1, showing the possibility of improvement, but the ESG stocks we selected have not strongly shown statistically significant welfare improvement results. This paper showed that the factors affecting optimal asset allocation and welfare improvement were different each other. We also found that the proportion of optimal asset allocation was affected by factors such as asset return, volatility, and inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, similar to traditional financial theory. Conclusion: The portfolio with ESG investment did not show significant results in welfare improvement is due to that 1) the KRX ESG Leaders 150 selected in our study is an index based on ESG integrated scores, which are designed to affect stability rather than profitability. And 2) Korea has a short history of ESG investment. During the limited analysis period, the performance of stock-related assets was inferior to bond assets at the time of the interest rate drop.

공간적 자기상관을 활용한 지역안전지수의 공간패턴 분석 - 기초지방자치단체를 중심으로 (An Analysis on the Spatial Pattern of Local Safety Level Index Using Spatial Autocorrelation - Focused on Basic Local Governments, Korea)

  • 이미숙;여관현
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2021
  • 범죄, 화재, 교통사고 등 국민의 안전을 위협하는 위험인자들은 지역적 맥락과 공간적 특성을 가지고 있다. 지역마다 서로 다른 위험환경을 가지고 있으므로 교통사고, 화재, 범죄, 생활안전 분야별로 위험요소의 공간적 패턴을 분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 전국 기초자치단체를 대상으로 분야(교통사고, 화재, 범죄, 생활안전, 자살, 감염병)별 안전등급을 측정한 지표인 지역안전지수의 공간적 분포 패턴을 분석하는데 연구의 목적이 있다. 지역안전지수의 공간적 자기상관성 분석을 위해 전역적 공간자기상관분석(Global Moran's I)과 Local Moran's I를 활용한 LISA(Local Indicators of Spatial Association) 분석, Getis-Ord's G⁎i 분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 교통사고, 화재, 자살의 안전지수 분포는 범죄, 생활안전, 감염병의 안전지수보다 공간적으로 집중(clustered) 경향을 보였다. 지역간 유의미한 공간적 연관성을 분석한 LISA 분석결과에 따르면, 수도권 지역이 다른 도시에 비하여 지역안전통합지수를 기준으로 비교적 안전한 지역인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 Getis-Ord's G⁎i 통계값을 활용한 핫스팟분석 결과 안전 취약지역의 군집인 3개의 핫스팟(강원도 삼척시, 경상북도 청송군, 전라북도 김제시)과 전반적인 안전 수준이 높은 군집인 15개의 콜드스팟이 도출되었다. 이러한 연구 결과는 안전 수준 취약지역의 공간적 분포와 패턴을 파악하여 안전 지수 개선을 위한 정책 수립시 기초자료로 활용될 수 있다.

골다공증 유발 동물모델에서 녹용 추출물의 경구 투여 효과: 체계적 문헌고찰 및 메타분석 (The Effects of Oral Administration of Deer Antler Extracts on an Osteoporosis-induced Animal Model: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis)

  • 이정민;김남훈;이은정
    • 한방재활의학과학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.65-81
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    • 2022
  • Objectives This study aimed to assess the effects of oral administration of deer antler extracts on an osteoporosis-induced animal model. We analyzed the results of using deer antler single extracts on animal models with osteoporosis through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We included osteoporosis studies in animal experiments that administrated deer antler extracts orally. We searched the following 13 databases without a language restriction: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang, Korean Medical Database (KMbase), National Digital Science Library (NDSL), Korean Traditional Knowledge (Koreantk), Oriental Medicine Advanced Searching Integrated System (OASIS), Research Information Sharing Service (RISS), Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI), and Koreanstudies Information Service System (KISS). We used Systematic Review Centre for Laboratory Animal Experimentation's risk of bias tool for assessing the methodological quality of the included studies. Results A total of 299 potentially relevant studies were searched and 11 were included for a systematic review. Nine studies used a single deer antler extract. A study compared the effects of single extracts of deer antler and antler glue, while another study compared the effects of three single extracts of deer antler, old antler, and antler glue. For evaluating the intervention effect, bone mineral density (BMD) was measured as the primary outcome, while the histomorphometric indicators of the bone and serum alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin levels were used as the secondary outcome variables. On conducting a meta-analysis of studies on single deer antler extract, BMD was observed to be significantly increased compared to that in control group (standardized mean difference [SMD]=2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.58~2.65; Z=7.75; p<0.00001; I2=56%). As a result of meta-analysis, according to the concentration of deer antler, the group with high concentration showed statistically significantly higher BMD than the group with low concentration (SMD=1.28; 95% CI=0.74~1.82; Z=4.63; p<0.00001; I2=9%). Conclusions The research shows that the deer antler extracts have significant anti-osteoporotic effects on the osteoporosis-induced animal model. However the studies included in this research had a high methodological risk of bias. This indicates the requirement of considerable attention in the interpretation of the study results.

학교건강증진사업의 주요 영역과 전략 개발을 위한 선진사례 분석 (Analysis of Advanced School Health Promotion Policies and Programs for Developing Effective School Health Strategies)

  • 김명;김혜경
    • 한국학교ㆍ지역보건교육학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2007
  • The role of school as a key setting for health promotion practices should be empathized. However, there were limitations for the effectiveness of school health promotion practices in Korea because of the lack of recognition about its importance, social support, guiding principles of the school health promotion services by the school health related law, and cooperation between school and community. The purpose of this study was to analyse the advanced cases from The United States, Japan, Europe and Australia, and to evaluate the applicability to school health promotion services in Korea for establishing the strategy for effective implementation of school health promotion program in Korea. Four cases of school health program were selected for analysis, including Coordinated School Health Program and National School Health Strategies in the USA, Healthy Japan21, National School Health Initiative in Australia and the European Network of Health Promoting Schools. Major conclusions were as follows: 1. Advanced cases of school health programs were comprehensive in nature. 2. Integrated school and community health promotion efforts was emphasized. mostly. 3. Governmental agencies played an active role in conducting surveillance activities to monitor priority health risk behaviors, developing school health program and training manual, providing periodic program evaluation. 4. Life skill focused health education was the key component for the comprehensive school health program. For the improvement of efficiency in school health promotion practices, above advanced strategies for school health promotion program would be necessary.

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공동주택 외피의 열교영향을 고려한 상당열관류율 및 연간 에너지소비성능 평가 연구 (A study on the annual energy performance of apartment building with the equivalent U-value of envelope considering the effect of thermal bridges)

  • 김동수;윤종호;신우철;곽희열
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2012
  • The building envelope is important specially for saving energy consumption of residential buildings. but Apartment houses in Korea commonly have inside insulation system which have constantly arisen thermal bridges, the risk of heat loss, as a necessity. This study aims to evaluate integrated insulation performance according to the different shapes of external walls, adjacent to windows. The thermal performance analysis was carried out by Equivalent U-value and using the three-dimensional heat transfer computer simulation (TRISCO-RADCON), under nine different cases of comparing among three each of different bases(current standard model, 30percent energy saving model and 60percent energy saving model). The heating and the cooling load were also compared between two cases (standard U-value and Equivalent U-value) of three each of different bases, using the Building energy simulation which is based on DOE-2.1 analysis. As results, it turns out that if the Equivalent U-value is considered on the envelope analysis, the heat flow loss will be increasing more than the standard U-value, and if heat insulation property of the residential building reinforced rather than current, the rate of influences on the thermal bridges would be extremely expanded. In addition, it is shown that annual heating loads of the apartment house with applied Equivalent U-value substantially increased by more than 15 percent compared to those with the existing U-value, but annual cooling loads were negligibly affected.