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Performance Optimization of Numerical Ocean Modeling on Cloud Systems (클라우드 시스템에서 해양수치모델 성능 최적화)

  • JUNG, KWANGWOOG;CHO, YANG-KI;TAK, YONG-JIN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.127-143
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    • 2022
  • Recently, many attempts to run numerical ocean models in cloud computing environments have been tried actively. A cloud computing environment can be an effective means to implement numerical ocean models requiring a large-scale resource or quickly preparing modeling environment for global or large-scale grids. Many commercial and private cloud computing systems provide technologies such as virtualization, high-performance CPUs and instances, ether-net based high-performance-networking, and remote direct memory access for High Performance Computing (HPC). These new features facilitate ocean modeling experimentation on commercial cloud computing systems. Many scientists and engineers expect cloud computing to become mainstream in the near future. Analysis of the performance and features of commercial cloud services for numerical modeling is essential in order to select appropriate systems as this can help to minimize execution time and the amount of resources utilized. The effect of cache memory is large in the processing structure of the ocean numerical model, which processes input/output of data in a multidimensional array structure, and the speed of the network is important due to the communication characteristics through which a large amount of data moves. In this study, the performance of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmarking software package, and STREAM, the memory benchmark were evaluated and compared on commercial cloud systems to provide information for the transition of other ocean models into cloud computing. Through analysis of actual performance data and configuration settings obtained from virtualization-based commercial clouds, we evaluated the efficiency of the computer resources for the various model grid sizes in the virtualization-based cloud systems. We found that cache hierarchy and capacity are crucial in the performance of ROMS using huge memory. The memory latency time is also important in the performance. Increasing the number of cores to reduce the running time for numerical modeling is more effective with large grid sizes than with small grid sizes. Our analysis results will be helpful as a reference for constructing the best computing system in the cloud to minimize time and cost for numerical ocean modeling.

Estimation for Ground Air Temperature Using GEO-KOMPSAT-2A and Deep Neural Network (심층신경망과 천리안위성 2A호를 활용한 지상기온 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Taeyoon Eom;Kwangnyun Kim;Yonghan Jo;Keunyong Song;Yunjeong Lee;Yun Gon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.207-221
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    • 2023
  • This study suggests deep neural network models for estimating air temperature with Level 1B (L1B) datasets of GEO-KOMPSAT-2A (GK-2A). The temperature at 1.5 m above the ground impact not only daily life but also weather warnings such as cold and heat waves. There are many studies to assume the air temperature from the land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from satellites because the air temperature has a strong relationship with the LST. However, an algorithm of the LST, Level 2 output of GK-2A, works only clear sky pixels. To overcome the cloud effects, we apply a deep neural network (DNN) model to assume the air temperature with L1B calibrated for radiometric and geometrics from raw satellite data and compare the model with a linear regression model between LST and air temperature. The root mean square errors (RMSE) of the air temperature for model outputs are used to evaluate the model. The number of 95 in-situ air temperature data was 2,496,634 and the ratio of datasets paired with LST and L1B show 42.1% and 98.4%. The training years are 2020 and 2021 and 2022 is used to validate. The DNN model is designed with an input layer taking 16 channels and four hidden fully connected layers to assume an air temperature. As a result of the model using 16 bands of L1B, the DNN with RMSE 2.22℃ showed great performance than the baseline model with RMSE 3.55℃ on clear sky conditions and the total RMSE including overcast samples was 3.33℃. It is suggested that the DNN is able to overcome cloud effects. However, it showed different characteristics in seasonal and hourly analysis and needed to append solar information as inputs to make a general DNN model because the summer and winter seasons showed a low coefficient of determinations with high standard deviations.

An Analytical Study on the Seismic Behavior and Safety of Vertical Hydrogen Storage Vessels Under the Earthquakes (지진 시 수직형 수소 저장용기의 거동 특성 분석 및 안전성에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Sang-Moon Lee;Young-Jun Bae;Woo-Young Jung
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2023
  • In general, large-capacity hydrogen storage vessels, typically in the form of vertical cylindrical vessels, are constructed using steel materials. These vessels are anchored to foundation slabs that are specially designed to suit the environmental conditions. This anchoring method involves pre-installed anchors on top of the concrete foundation slab. However, it's important to note that such a design can result in concentrated stresses at the anchoring points when external forces, such as seismic events, are at play. This may lead to potential structural damage due to anchor and concrete damage. For this reason, in this study, it selected an vertical hydrogen storage vessel based on site observations and created a 3D finite element model. Artificial seismic motions made following the procedures specified in ICC-ES AC 156, as well as domestic recorded earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.0, were applied to analyze the structural behavior and performance of the target structures. Conducting experiments on a structure built to actual scale would be ideal, but due to practical constraints, it proved challenging to execute. Therefore, it opted for an analytical approach to assess the safety of the target structure. Regarding the structural response characteristics, the acceleration induced by seismic motion was observed to amplify by approximately ten times compared to the input seismic motions. Additionally, there was a tendency for a decrease in amplification as the response acceleration was transmitted to the point where the centre of gravity is located. For the vulnerable components, specifically the sub-system (support columns and anchorages), the stress levels were found to satisfy the allowable stress criteria. However, the concrete's tensile strength exhibited only about a 5% margin of safety compared to the allowable stress. This indicates the need for mitigation strategies in addressing these concerns. Based on the research findings presented in this paper, it is anticipated that predictable load information for the design of storage vessels required for future shaking table tests will be provided.

Changes in Soil Physiochemcial Properties Over 11 Years in Larix kaempferi Stands Planted in Larix kaempferi and Pinus rigida Clear-Cut Sites (낙엽송과 리기다소나무 벌채지에 조성된 낙엽송 임분의 11년간 토양 물리·화학적 특성 변화)

  • Nam Jin Noh;Seung-hyun Han;Sang-tae Lee;Min Seok Cho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.4
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    • pp.502-514
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to understand the long-term changes in soil physiochemical properties and seedling growth in Larix kaempferi (larch) stands planted in clear-cut larch and Pinus rigida (pine) forest soils over an 11-year period after reforestation. Two-year-old bare-root larch seedlings were planted in 2009-2010 at a density of 3,000 seedlings ha-1 in clear-cut areas that harvested larch (Chuncheon and Gimcheon) and pine (Wonju and Gapyeong) stands. We analyzed the physiochemical properties of the mineral soils sampled at 0-20 cm soil depths in the planting year, and the 3rd, 7thand 11th years after planting, and we measured seedling height and root collar diameter in those years. We found significant differences in soil silt and clay content, total carbon and nitrogen concentration, available phosphorus, and cation exchangeable capacity between the two stands; however, seedling growth did not differ. The mineral soil was more fertile in Gimcheon than in the other plantations, while early seedling growth was greatest in Gapyeong. The seedling height and diameter at 11 years after planting were largest in Wonju (1,028 tree ha-1) and Chuncheon (1,359 tree ha-1) due to decreases in stand density after tending the young trees. The soil properties in all plantations were similar 11 years after larch planting. In particular, the high sand content and high available phosphorus levels (caused by soil disturbance during clear-cutting and planting) showed marked decreases, potentially due to soil organic matter input and nutrient uptake, respectively. Thus, early reforestation after clear-cutting could limit nutrient leaching and contribute to soil stabilization. These results provide useful information for nutrient management of larch plantations.

Importance and requirements for dental prosthesis order platform services: a survey of dental professionals (치과 보철물 거래 플랫폼 서비스의 중요성과 요구사항: 치과 전문가 설문조사)

  • Gyu-Ri Kim;Keunbada Son;Du-Hyeong Lee;So-Yeun Kim;Myoung-Uk Jin;Kyu-Bok Lee
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aimed to gain better understanding of the importance of dental prosthesis order platform services and to identify the essential elements for their enhancement and wider adoption among dental professionals. Materials and Methods: A survey was conducted to assess the perspectives of dentists, dental technicians, dental hygienists, and dental industry professionals toward dental prosthesis ordering and associated platform services (a total of 53 respondents). The questionnaire was devised after an expert review and assessed for reliability using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Factor analysis revealed that 57 factors across five categories accounted for 88.417% of the total variance. The survey was administered through an online questionnaire platform, and data analysis was conducted using a statistical software, employing one-way analysis of variance and Tukey's honestly significant difference test (α = 0.05). Results: The essential elements identified were accurate information input, effective communication, delivery of distortion-free impressions, convenience in data transmission and storage, development of stable and affordable platform services (P < 0.05). Furthermore, significant differences were observed in the importance of these items based on age, dental profession, and career experience (P < 0.05). Conclusion: The dental prosthesis ordering platform services, the requirements of dental personnel were stability, economic efficiency, and ease of transmitting and storing prosthesis data. The findings can serve as important indicators for the development and improvement of dental prosthesis order platform services.

Prediction of multipurpose dam inflow utilizing catchment attributes with LSTM and transformer models (유역정보 기반 Transformer및 LSTM을 활용한 다목적댐 일 단위 유입량 예측)

  • Kim, Hyung Ju;Song, Young Hoon;Chung, Eun Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.7
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    • pp.437-449
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    • 2024
  • Rainfall-runoff prediction studies using deep learning while considering catchment attributes have been gaining attention. In this study, we selected two models: the Transformer model, which is suitable for large-scale data training through the self-attention mechanism, and the LSTM-based multi-state-vector sequence-to-sequence (LSTM-MSV-S2S) model with an encoder-decoder structure. These models were constructed to incorporate catchment attributes and predict the inflow of 10 multi-purpose dam watersheds in South Korea. The experimental design consisted of three training methods: Single-basin Training (ST), Pretraining (PT), and Pretraining-Finetuning (PT-FT). The input data for the models included 10 selected watershed attributes along with meteorological data. The inflow prediction performance was compared based on the training methods. The results showed that the Transformer model outperformed the LSTM-MSV-S2S model when using the PT and PT-FT methods, with the PT-FT method yielding the highest performance. The LSTM-MSV-S2S model showed better performance than the Transformer when using the ST method; however, it showed lower performance when using the PT and PT-FT methods. Additionally, the embedding layer activation vectors and raw catchment attributes were used to cluster watersheds and analyze whether the models learned the similarities between them. The Transformer model demonstrated improved performance among watersheds with similar activation vectors, proving that utilizing information from other pre-trained watersheds enhances the prediction performance. This study compared the suitable models and training methods for each multi-purpose dam and highlighted the necessity of constructing deep learning models using PT and PT-FT methods for domestic watersheds. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the Transformer model outperforms the LSTM-MSV-S2S model when applying PT and PT-FT methods.

Accelerometer-based Gesture Recognition for Robot Interface (로봇 인터페이스 활용을 위한 가속도 센서 기반 제스처 인식)

  • Jang, Min-Su;Cho, Yong-Suk;Kim, Jae-Hong;Sohn, Joo-Chan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2011
  • Vision and voice-based technologies are commonly utilized for human-robot interaction. But it is widely recognized that the performance of vision and voice-based interaction systems is deteriorated by a large margin in the real-world situations due to environmental and user variances. Human users need to be very cooperative to get reasonable performance, which significantly limits the usability of the vision and voice-based human-robot interaction technologies. As a result, touch screens are still the major medium of human-robot interaction for the real-world applications. To empower the usability of robots for various services, alternative interaction technologies should be developed to complement the problems of vision and voice-based technologies. In this paper, we propose the use of accelerometer-based gesture interface as one of the alternative technologies, because accelerometers are effective in detecting the movements of human body, while their performance is not limited by environmental contexts such as lighting conditions or camera's field-of-view. Moreover, accelerometers are widely available nowadays in many mobile devices. We tackle the problem of classifying acceleration signal patterns of 26 English alphabets, which is one of the essential repertoires for the realization of education services based on robots. Recognizing 26 English handwriting patterns based on accelerometers is a very difficult task to take over because of its large scale of pattern classes and the complexity of each pattern. The most difficult problem that has been undertaken which is similar to our problem was recognizing acceleration signal patterns of 10 handwritten digits. Most previous studies dealt with pattern sets of 8~10 simple and easily distinguishable gestures that are useful for controlling home appliances, computer applications, robots etc. Good features are essential for the success of pattern recognition. To promote the discriminative power upon complex English alphabet patterns, we extracted 'motion trajectories' out of input acceleration signal and used them as the main feature. Investigative experiments showed that classifiers based on trajectory performed 3%~5% better than those with raw features e.g. acceleration signal itself or statistical figures. To minimize the distortion of trajectories, we applied a simple but effective set of smoothing filters and band-pass filters. It is well known that acceleration patterns for the same gesture is very different among different performers. To tackle the problem, online incremental learning is applied for our system to make it adaptive to the users' distinctive motion properties. Our system is based on instance-based learning (IBL) where each training sample is memorized as a reference pattern. Brute-force incremental learning in IBL continuously accumulates reference patterns, which is a problem because it not only slows down the classification but also downgrades the recall performance. Regarding the latter phenomenon, we observed a tendency that as the number of reference patterns grows, some reference patterns contribute more to the false positive classification. Thus, we devised an algorithm for optimizing the reference pattern set based on the positive and negative contribution of each reference pattern. The algorithm is performed periodically to remove reference patterns that have a very low positive contribution or a high negative contribution. Experiments were performed on 6500 gesture patterns collected from 50 adults of 30~50 years old. Each alphabet was performed 5 times per participant using $Nintendo{(R)}$ $Wii^{TM}$ remote. Acceleration signal was sampled in 100hz on 3 axes. Mean recall rate for all the alphabets was 95.48%. Some alphabets recorded very low recall rate and exhibited very high pairwise confusion rate. Major confusion pairs are D(88%) and P(74%), I(81%) and U(75%), N(88%) and W(100%). Though W was recalled perfectly, it contributed much to the false positive classification of N. By comparison with major previous results from VTT (96% for 8 control gestures), CMU (97% for 10 control gestures) and Samsung Electronics(97% for 10 digits and a control gesture), we could find that the performance of our system is superior regarding the number of pattern classes and the complexity of patterns. Using our gesture interaction system, we conducted 2 case studies of robot-based edutainment services. The services were implemented on various robot platforms and mobile devices including $iPhone^{TM}$. The participating children exhibited improved concentration and active reaction on the service with our gesture interface. To prove the effectiveness of our gesture interface, a test was taken by the children after experiencing an English teaching service. The test result showed that those who played with the gesture interface-based robot content marked 10% better score than those with conventional teaching. We conclude that the accelerometer-based gesture interface is a promising technology for flourishing real-world robot-based services and content by complementing the limits of today's conventional interfaces e.g. touch screen, vision and voice.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2020
  • Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.