• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2017

Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.49-65
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• 2014

Word of Mouth (WOM) is a behavior used by consumers to transfer or communicate their product or service experience to other consumers. Due to the popularity of social media such as Facebook, Twitter, blogs, and online communities, electronic WOM (e-WOM) has become important to the success of products or services. As a result, most enterprises pay close attention to e-WOM for their products or services. This is especially important for movies, as these are experiential products. This paper aims to identify the network factors of an online movie community that impact box office revenue using social network analysis. In addition to traditional WOM factors (volume and valence of WOM), network centrality measures of the online community are included as influential factors in box office revenue. Based on previous research results, we develop five hypotheses on the relationships between potential influential factors (WOM volume, WOM valence, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality) and box office revenue. The first hypothesis is that the accumulated volume of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The second hypothesis is that the accumulated valence of WOM in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The third hypothesis is that the average of degree centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fourth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. The fifth hypothesis is that the average of betweenness centralities of reviewers in online product communities is positively related to the total revenue of movies. To verify our research model, we collect movie review data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), which is a representative online movie community, and movie revenue data from the Box-Office-Mojo website. The movies in this analysis include weekly top-10 movies from September 1, 2012, to September 1, 2013, with in total. We collect movie metadata such as screening periods and user ratings; and community data in IMDb including reviewer identification, review content, review times, responder identification, reply content, reply times, and reply relationships. For the same period, the revenue data from Box-Office-Mojo is collected on a weekly basis. Movie community networks are constructed based on reply relationships between reviewers. Using a social network analysis tool, NodeXL, we calculate the averages of three centralities including degree, betweenness, and closeness centrality for each movie. Correlation analysis of focal variables and the dependent variable (final revenue) shows that three centrality measures are highly correlated, prompting us to perform multiple regressions separately with each centrality measure. Consistent with previous research results, our regression analysis results show that the volume and valence of WOM are positively related to the final box office revenue of movies. Moreover, the averages of betweenness centralities from initial community networks impact the final movie revenues. However, both of the averages of degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence final movie performance. Based on the regression results, three hypotheses, 1, 2, and 4, are accepted, and two hypotheses, 3 and 5, are rejected. This study tries to link the network structure of e-WOM on online product communities with the product's performance. Based on the analysis of a real online movie community, the results show that online community network structures can work as a predictor of movie performance. The results show that the betweenness centralities of the reviewer community are critical for the prediction of movie performance. However, degree centralities and closeness centralities do not influence movie performance. As future research topics, similar analyses are required for other product categories such as electronic goods and online content to generalize the study results.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.3-18
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• 1988

The general objective of this research is to study behavioral pattern of health care utilization and to measure the level of utilization of the traditional medicine. The specific objective is to study utilization pattern and content of folk medicine which is the indegenous medical technology recognized part of traditional medicine. This research was under taken to generate valid information that will provide basis data for formulating general direction for health education activities and for designing service package for general population. A social survey method was employed to obtain required information for the research activities, The survey field team consisted of 20 surveyors who all participated is an intensive 2 day training course. A total of 3091 households were visited and interviewed by the field team during the period 7 September to 6 October 1987. The major findings obtained from the information collected by the field survey are as follows ; 1) General characteristics of the study households 2562 households out of 3091 households visited were selected for final data process, 80.2 of the selected households were nuclear families ; 17.4%, extended families ; others 2.4%. Only 4.3 percent of the study population in the urban households indicated "no schooling" whereas 14.2% of the rural household members falls within this category. Study population in the urban areas are more protected against diseases by the national medical insurance system than those in rural areas. In their self appraisal of living standard, those who responded with low group are 39.6% and 50.3% respectively by urban and rural households. 2) Morbidity status Period prevalence rate for all diseases during the preceding 15 days before the date of the household interview v as 243,0 per 1,000 study population. For cases with the illness duration of within 15 days, the initial points of medical entry were diversied ; 56.9%, drug stores ; 30.9%, clinics and hospitals ; 4.6% folk medicine ; 1.7% clinics of Korean oriental medicine. Among the chronic case; with illness duration of over 90 days, 34.6% of these people utilized clinics and hospitals of modern medicine ; 31.6%, drug stores ; 18.6% clinics of Korean oriental medicine ; 6.8% folk medical techniques. Noticeable is the almost ten fold increase from the mere 0.9% in the utilization of Korean oriental medicine, whereas in the utilization of folk medicine, it is short of two-fold increase. 3) Folk medicine and its utilization Households that use folk medicine for relief and care of signs and symptoms commonly encountered in daily life, number 1969 households, which accounts for 76.9% of all the study households. This rather high level use of folk medicine is not different from rural to urban areas. The order of frequency of utilizing folk medicine among the study people are : the highest 14.3% for the relief of indigestion ; 8.6% for burns ; 5.1% for common cold ; 4.7% for hiccough ; and 4.2% for hordeolum. A present various procedures of folk medicine is being used to relieve all kinds of symptoms. 192 symptoms are identified at present. The most frequently used procedures of folk medicine appear to be based either on principles of the Korean oriental medicine or of scientific knowledge. Based on these survey findings, proposals for utilizing folk medicine are as follows First, this survey's findings will be feed back to both on the job training and on the spot guidance of community health practitioners, public health nurses and other peripheral work force in the health field, who are in daily contacts with community. This feed back will assure that the health personnel carry out their health education and information activities that are based on the utilization pattern of folk medicine as found in the survey result. Second, studies will be soon implemented that are designed to measure the efficiency and potency of these procedures and to improve these procedures of folk medicine were most frequently used by the community. Third, studies will continue to systematize medicinal plants and skills of Korean oriental medicine that are easily available at minimal cost in daily life for the prevention of diseases and management of emergency cases.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.768-781
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• 1996

The problem of care of patients and families with Alzheimer's disease has become a conscious raising social policy issue in Korea. The government of the Republic of Korea has become cognizant of the situation and has begun searching for ways to remedy it. Thus, there is a need for a comprehensive under-standing of the situation in which patients and their families are struggling and the enormous problems of care. With a realization of the urgent need, this study was done to investigate the situation and the care needs of families with patients with Alzheimer's Disease, and to compare the effectiveness of services utilized by the families in terms of cost and effects on patient's conditions and on family live. The Subjects for the study were 29 families with hospitalized patients, 25 families utilizing hospital outpatient clinics, 14 families utilizing day care facilities, and 16 families with homebound patients. A total of 84 families were interviewed by four trained interviewers using structured and semistructured questionnaires. The data produced from these interviews included : the patient's stage of Alzheimer's disease, patient's bizarre behavior, hours spent on patient care per day, family burden and quality of life, direct and indirect costs encountered in the care of patients, and the families' evaluation of the effectiveness of the services received. The data were analyzed to determine the relationships between family charactersistics, patient's conditions and services utilization. The effectiveness of each of the service entities was assessed through families evaluation and hoped for service and comparisons were made between services in terms of the cost-effectiveness ratios. After initial comparison of cost-effectiveness ratios, further analysis was done to compare between groups for incremental effectiveness for each incremental unit of cost to determine the most cost-effective service entities. The findings of the study are as fellows : 1. The choice of living arrangement and the types of services are a function of the stage of Alzheimer's condition and the economic status of the family. 2. Comparision of the cost of care showed that most expenses were encountered in by families with hospitalization, families using outpatient services, and families using day care services in that order. The least expense was involved in the care of homebound patients. The economic burden felt by families was in the same order as expenses. 3. The average number of hours spent on daily patient care was 9.9 hours for the outpatient clinic users, 9.7 hours for homebound patients, and 5.4 hours for day care users. 4. There were significant differences in the patient's conditions (CDRL), bizarre behaviors and the families's burden by living arrangement and /or types of service. However, no significant difference was found between groups in the family's quality of life. 5. The families rated the services of day care center as most effective for the care of the patients and families, except for a few families who had experienced some improvement in the patient's conditions. The outpatient clinic users expressed psychological comforts mainly in that the patient was being taken care of. For those hospitalized patients, families expressed the comfort of being relieved of the burden of care and that the patient is being professionally cared for. Form the analysis of the costs, hours of patient care, patient's bizarre behaviors, family's quality of life and burdens, and family's evaluation of services, it is concluded that up to the mid stage of Alzheimer's condition, the utilization of day care center services is found to be the most cost-effective, and toward the end stage of the Alzheimer's disease, it is hoped that there will be a establishment of long term or short term in-patient facilities for the protection of patients and preservation of the integrity of families for less cost. Thus. it was concluded that the family centered system of care is the most effective for Korea with systematic support systems developed for the care of patients and their families according to the needs of families as the patient's condition deteriorates.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.239-248
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• 2001

The purpose of this study was to analyze risk factors for nosocomial pneumonia in patients admitted to NS ICU, and to provide a basic data to decrease respiratory nosocomial infection rate engendered from medical environments in NS ICU. The study site was the NS ICU at a university hospital located in Seoul, Korea. The subjects were 31 patients diagnosed with nosocomial pneumonia, who were selected from the initial list of 300 potential subjects who had been a) admitted between September 1999 and January 2000, and September 2000 and January 2001, b) resided at the NS ICU over 72 hours. The diagnostic standard of nosocomial pneumonia was based on the nosocomial infection guides of C university hospital. The data were analyzed using frequencies and logistic regression analysis. The sputums obtained from the subjects were cultivated and causal viruses were separated. The results were as follows: 1. The nosocomial pneumonia rate was $10.3\%$. There were 7 types of causal viruses separated from the sputum. and the most prevalent type of virus was MRSA as $62.2\%$. 2. The factors significantly influencing the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia included age, the residential duration at the NS ICU, GCS scores, diabetes mellitus, insertion of tracheal tube and its duration, tracheostomy and its length of insertion, the use of artificial ventilator and the length of its use, and the insertion of naso-gastic tube. The most significant risk factor among these was the insertion of tracheal tube (odds ratio=18.684. $95\%$ CI=6.849-50.974), followed by the use of tracheostomy (odds ratio=15.419, $95\%$ CI=6.615-35.942), the insertion of naso-gastric tube (odds ratio=14.875, $95\%$ CI=6.396-34.595), and the use of artificial ventilator (odds ratio=13.000. $95\%$ CI=5.633­30.001). 3. Regarding the use of the mechanical aids, the insertion of tracheal tube resulted in 12.968 times increase of the nosocomial pneumonia rate, and the use of artificial ventilator lead 6.714 times increase of the nosocomial pneumonia rate. One point increase of the GCS score resulted in the 1.210 times increase of the nosocomial pneumonia rate. For patients who had tracheal tube, tracheostomy, and artificial ventilator, one day increase of their residential duration at NS ICU lead 1.073 times increase of the nosocomial pneumonia rate. 4. In terms of duration of the mechanical aid usage, one day increase in the use of artificial ventilator engendered 1.080 times increase in the nosocomial pneumonia rate. One day increase of the residential duration at the NS ICU lead 1.604 times increase in the nosocomial pneumonia rate. As one point of the GCS score increased, 0.876 times decrease of the nosocomial pneumonia rate was reported. These study findings show that the risk factors significantly influencing the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia include the use of tracheal tube, tracheostomy, naso-gastic tube, and artificial ventilator. It is recommended that nurses working at NS ICU should pay more attention to the patients with these factors as the risky group for the nosocomial pneumonia, and thus make more active efforts to provide nosocomial pneumonia prevention strategies for them. In further studies patients admitted to the different types of ICUs such as internal medicine or surgery unit ICU will be also included, and more wide investigation of nosocomial pneumonia risk factors will be conducted through one-year longitudinal follow up.

• Childhood Kidney Diseases
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.153-160
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• 1999

Purpose : Present study was undertaken to find out significance of clinical presentation, initial laboratory data and renal biopsy findings on subsequent clinical course of IgA nephropathy in children. Methods : Clinical and laboratory data were analysed retrospectively from 60 children who have been admitted to the Pediatric Department of Kyungpook National University Hospital for the past 11 years and diagnosed as IgA nephropathy. Renal biopsy findings were graded according to the pathologic subclass proposed by Haas. Results : Pathologic grading according to Haas subclassification showed 10 cases in subclass I, 36 in II, 12 in IV and 2 in V and none in subclass II. Sex distribution showed male predominance (male to female ratio = 3 : 1) and mean age at onset of disease was $10.4{\pm}2.8$ years. Episodes of gross hematuria was seen in 71.7% and IgA level increased in 28.3% of children and these were not associated with pathologic grading nor clinical outcomes. With increasing subclass grading, serum protein and albumin decreased and 24 hours urinary protein excretion increased. Normalization of urinalysis (disappearance of hematuria) was seen in 14% at 1-2 years and 37.1% at 3-4 years of follow up period. In 3 cases, renal function deteriorated progressively and they belonged one each to the Haas subclass III, IV and V. Conclusion : In children with IgA nephropathy, progression to chronic renal failure appears to be quite high and pathologic grading according to Haas' subclassification seems to predict patient's outcome faily well. However, firm conclusion cannot be drawn from present study due to the small numbers of patients and short follow-up period. Therefore further multicenter study involving larger numbers of patients and longer periods of follow-up over 10 years was to be undertaken.

• Childhood Kidney Diseases
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.195-204
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• 2004

Purpose: Hypophosphatemic rickets is a hereditary disease, characterized by hypophosphatemia due to renal phosphate wasting, impaired renal production of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin $D_3$, rachitic bone deformities and impaired growth. The purpose of this study is to provide clinical profiles of patients with hypophosphatemic rickets in our hospital. Methods: Between July 1983 and February 2004, 56 patients were diagnosed as having hypophosphatemic rickets. The medical records of these patients were reviewed retrospectively. Clinical manifestations, family histories, laboratory data, treatment outcomes were described. Results: Fifty six patients were enrolled in this study. The average age at symptom onset and diagnosis were 20 months and 5 years respectively. Fourteen patients had family histories. The main clinical manifestations were bow legs and short stature. There was a significant negative correlation between the ages and the height z-scores at the time of diagnosis(r=-0.47, P=0.005). Initial laboratory data showed normocalcemia, hypophosphatemia, elevated serum alkaline phosphatase, decreased tubular reabsorption of phosphate and a normal range of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin $D_3$ Radiographic examinations of bone revealed fraying, widening and cupping of the metaphyseal ends. Treatment consisted of Joulie solution and vitamin D metabolites, and resulted in improved biochemical and radiographic findings. However, height z-scores remained essentially unchanged(P=0.224). Complications of treatment were frequently observed, including hyperparathyroidism, nephrocalcinosis, and hypercalciuria. Sixteen patients had corrective osteotomy and 4 of them underwent leg lengthening together. Conclusion: There was a gap of several years between the onset of symptoms and the diagnosis. Early treatment seems to be essential to growth. For the earlier treatment, the offsprings of affected parents should be followed up closely.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.137-145
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• 1997

From July 1983 to December 1993, total 112 consecutive mitral valve replacements in 107 patients were performed in patient with mitral valvular abnormalities. To estimate the risk factor related to operative death, all patient's perioperative data were reviewed retrospectively. Except 20 patients received concomitant aortic valve replacement and 2 patients had incomplete data, 85 patients were included in this study. Mean age were $37.3\pm$ 13.1 years ranging from 13 to 72 years. Thirty-seven patients were male and fourty-eight patients were female. Mean follow-up durations were $51.1\pm33.8$ months ranging from 6 months t 11 years. Patients in this study showed improvement in mean NYHA functional clssification, from $3.02\pm0.73$ to 1 $78\pm0.55,$ and also in cardiothoracic ratio, from 0.61 $\pm0.09$ to $0.58\pm0.08$ at 6 months follow-up after operation. Operative complications were detected in 23 patients(27.1 %) and common postoperative complications were rhythm disturbance in 7 cases, pulmonary complications in 6 cases and low cardiac output syndrome in 6 cases. Early mortality was 10.6%(n=9) and the most common cause of death was a congestive heart failure due to low cardiac output syndrome. Main cause of our higher operative mortality than other study was that operative mortality in the initial period of our mitral surgery was high(5 operative deaths among 19 mitral valve replacement from July 1983 to December 1985). Actuarial survival was 80.8% at 5 years, 71.8% at 11 years including operative deaths. Actuarial freedom from anticoagulant-related bleeding was 85.3% at 5 years, 78.3% at 11 years. 95.1% at 5 years and 88.8% at 11 years among the patient in this study were free from thromboembolism, and 97.5% at 5 years and 75.1% at 11 years were free from reoperation. Preoperative cardiothoracic ratio and patient's age were statistically significant operative risk factors.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.154-163
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• 2010

Purpose: Colonic polyposis is less common in children than in adults. The clinical data pertaining to colonic polyposis in children are limited. Children with colonic polyposis have complications associated with numerous polyps, malignant transformation of the polyps, and extraintestinal neoplasms. We studied the clinical spectrum, endoscopic characteristics, and histologic findings of colonic polyposis in Korean children. Methods: We reviewed the clinical data of 37 children with multiple colonic polyps between 1987 and 2009. The mean age at the time of diagnosis of colonic polyposis was 8.0${\pm}$3.2 years. Results: Peutz-Jeghers syndrome, juvenile polyposis syndrome, familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), and lymphoid polyposis was diagnosed in 22, 7, 6, and 2 children, respectively. The most common clinical presentation in children with colonic polyposis was hematochezia. A family history of colonic polyposis was noted in 7 children. The colonoscopic findings of colonic polyposis varied with the size and number of polyps. The majority of polyps were multi-lobulatd and pedunculated in children with Peutz-Jeghers syndrome. The polyps in children with juvenile polyposis syndrome were primarily round and pedunculated. For the children with FAP, the colon was carpeted with small, sessile polyps. There were multiple sessile polyps in the patients with lymphoid polyposis. Surgical polypectomy was performed in 14 children (38%). Intestinal segmental resection was performed in 13 children (35%). Four patients with FAP underwent total colectomy. Four children with Peutz-Jeghers syndrome had extraintestinal neoplasms. No malignant transformation of polyp was identified. Conclusion: Children with colonic polyposis should undergo a careful initial evaluation and require periodic re-evaluation.