• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.3-11
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• 2015

Apartment developers consider the initial sales rate as an important indicator for their success of apartment development projects. They tried to achieve a secure level of initial sales rate. In spite of its importance, there is little research on the initial sales rate because of the difficulties in gathering proper data for analysis. This study, however, collects the data in initial sales rates in Su-won from various sources such as construction companies, marketing companies, sales companies and so on. By using this rare data, this study analyses the initial contract rate of apartment and estimates the initial contract rate by sales price. The result of this study shows that important of land area ratio, brand, and distance to park. It is expected that the proposed model will be used for apartment developers in sales planning phase.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2017

Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.85-111
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• 2016

This paper examines the effects of prior industry experience, new product attributes and online customer review on new product sales. Different from prior researches on the volume and valence of customer review on online shopping, this paper investigated multiple factors on new product sales in online shopping mall. Based on 407 TV new products in China online shopping mall, we investigated the relationships of kew factors with new products sales. New products of Incumbent TV manufacturers outsell those of new entrants in TV market. Low initial price and low level of discount rate have positive relationships with new product sales. Technological superiority has positive effect on new product sales but the adoptions of new technological functions show different effects on sales. The volume of online consumer review also has positive relationship with new product sales. This paper suggest some theoretical and practical implications and future research directions.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.85-93
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• 2017

Purpose - The volume and valence of online word-of-mouth(eWOM) have become an important part of the retailer's market success for a wide range of products. This study aims to investigate how the growth of eWOM has generated the product's final financial outcomes in the introductory period influences. Research design, data, and methodology - This study uses weekly box office performance for 117 movies released in the South Korea from July 2015 to June 2016 using Korean Film Council(KOFIC) database. 292,371 posted online review messages were collected from NAVER movie review bulletin board. Using regression analysis, we test whether eWOM incurred during the opening week is valuable to explain the last of box office performance. Three major eWOM metrics were considered after controlling for the major distributional factors. Results - Results support that major eWOM variables play a significant role in box-office outcome prediction. Especially, the growth rate of the positive eWOM volume has a significant effect on the growth potential in sales. Conclusions - The findings highlight that the speed of eWOM growth has an informational value to understand the market reaction to a new product beyond valence and volume. Movie distributors need to take positive online eWOM growth into account to make optimal screen allocation decisions after release.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.231-249
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• 2009

The 'Excellent Quality Competitive Enterprises' selection system began with the government's selection and announcement of 'Top 100 Excellent Quality Competitive Enterprises' in 1997 in accordance with Article 6 of the Quality Management and Safety Control of Industrial Products Act and Article 5 (Selection of excellent quality management enterprises, etc.) of the Act's Enforcement Decree. The content of the research and analysis results is summarized as follows: 1. The participation and confidence of enterprises in the differentiation of the assessment system for the excellent quality competitive enterprises selection system is high: from the initial year to the present, 10% of enterprises have participated in the system for over 10 years and since 2000 participating enterprises have been on a steady rise. 2. The distribution of participating enterprises is not limited to any specific region but is spread nationwide, while the participation scale and business types also are being evenly distributed. 3. From the perspective of management performance, as compared with the average of domestic manufacturing businesses or that of U.S. manufacturing businesses, an analysis found that among management results, the excellent quality competitive enterprises achieved far higher sales growth and operating profit rate on sales, however their own capital ratio and debt to equity ratio appeared to be slightly higher.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.245-272
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• 2004

This study is focused on the cases that Korean hotels stepped into international airports, public facilities, and successfully solved the contract related disputes by using arbitration in accordance with arbitration law. This case study on arbitration derives the hotel management strategy points as follow: 1. It must be a good chance for a famed hotel to step into international airports that have big publication effect. The feasibility study focused on marketing feasibility rather than finance feasibility may, however, not be good. 2. Written contract is required in entering into a contract with government organizations. However, oral contract still exists. 3. If the contract is made to always pay the higher amount between annual minimal guarantee and sales rate in expenses of store using charge, such contract shall cause very hard sales environment from the initial stage of the contract. 4. The airports have made optional contracts for national service. Such optional contracts are, however, not free from public criticism. 5. This case study is the first case study on arbitration applied to hotels. This study shall be, therefore, frequently referred to in setting a management strategy of hotels that want to run restaurants in another facility outside themselves.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.67 no.10
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• pp.1278-1285
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• 2018

For saving electricity bill, energy storage system(ESS) is being installed in factories, public building and commercial building with a Time-of-Use(TOU) tariff which consists of demand charge(KRW/kW) and energy charge(KRW/kWh). However, both of peak reduction and ESS special tariff are not considered in an analysis of initial cost payback period(ICPP) on ESS. Since it is difficult to reflect base rate by an amount of uncertain peak demand reduction during mid-peak and on-peak periods in the future days. Therefore, the ICPP on ESS can be increased. Based on this background, this paper presents the advanced analysis method for the ICPP on ESS. In the proposed algorithm, the representative days of monthly electricity consumption pattern for the amount of peak reduction can be found by the k­means clustering algorithm. Moreover, the total expected energy costs of representative days are minimized by optimal daily ESS operation considering both peak reduction and the special tariff through a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP). And then, the amount of peak reduction becomes a value that the sum of the expected energy costs for 12 months is maximum. The annual benefit cost is decided by the amount of annual peak reduction. Two simulation cases are considered in this study, which one only considers the special tariff and another considers both of the special tariff and amount of peak reduction. The ICPP in the proposed method is shortened by 18 months compared to the conventional method.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.189-196
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• 2008

This paper proposes a way of designing of a global logistics system for "the international cooperative global complementary production system" (ICGCPS) constructed in ASEAN region. ICGCPS is a global production system with several production bases located in a number of countries. In order to assemble the final products and sell them in the domestic market, each production base produces only special kinds of components and parts with the total demand required all the participating countries, and supplies them to the other production bases each other. In the ICGCPS, there are a number of important decision-making problems such as identifying which countries are suitable to produce specified components and parts, and deciding how to transport components and parts between the production bases. In the initial period of this system, each production base focused on its domestic market so that the final products it produced were sold only in the country where the base was located. Recently, some production bases have expanded sales to overseas markets. Taking this fact into account, we propose a production and transportation planning model in this paper that takes into account the export quantity of the final products, formulating it into a mathematical programming problem. Using this, we propose a way for managing the supply chain processes of the ICGCPS in order to improve performance measurements such as the total lead-time, the inventory quantity at the depot and the average rate of loading. A numerical example is presented to clarify the procedure proposed in this paper.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.119-138
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• 2016

Since the Industrial Revolution, which made the mass production and mass distribution of standardized goods possible, machine-made (manufactured) products have accounted for the majority of the market. However, in recent years, the phenomenon of purchasing even more expensive handmade products has become a noticeable trend as consumers have started to acknowledge the value of handmade products, such as the craftsman's commitment, belief in their quality and scarcity, and the sense of self-esteem from having them,. Consumer interest in these handmade products has shown explosive growth and has been coupled with the recent development of three-dimensional (3D) printing technologies. Etsy.com is the world's largest online handmade platform. It is no different from any other online platform; it provides an online market where buyers and sellers virtually meet to share information and transact business. However, Etsy.com is different in that shops within this platform only deal with handmade products in a variety of categories, ranging from jewelry to toys. Since its establishment in 2005, despite being limited to handmade products, Etsy.com has enjoyed rapid growth in membership, transaction volume, and revenue. Most recently in April 2015, it raised funds through an initial public offering (IPO) of more than 1.8 billion USD, which demonstrates the huge potential of online handmade platforms. After the success of Etsy.com, various types of online handmade platforms such as Handmade at Amazon, ArtFire, DaWanda, and Craft is ART have emerged and are now competing with each other, at the same time, which has increased the size of the market. According to Deloitte's 2015 holiday survey on which types of gifts the respondents plan to buy during the holiday season, about 16% of U.S. consumers chose "homemade or craft items (e.g., Etsy purchase)," which was the same rate as those for the computer game and shoes categories. This indicates that consumer interests in online handmade platforms will continue to rise in the future. However, this high interest in the market for handmade products and their platforms has not yet led to academic research. Most extant studies have only focused on machine-made products and intelligent services for them. This indicates a lack of studies on handmade products and their intelligent services on virtual platforms. Therefore, this study used signaling theory and prior research on the effects of sellers' characteristics on their performance (e.g., total sales and price premiums) in the buyer-seller relationship to identify the key influencing e-Image factors (e.g., reputation, size, information sharing, and length of relationship). Then, their impacts on the performance of shops within the online handmade platform were empirically examined; the dataset was collected from Etsy.com through the application of web harvesting technology. The results from the structural equation modeling revealed that the reputation, size, and information sharing have significant effects on the total sales, while the reputation and length of relationship influence price premiums. This study extended the online platform research into online handmade platform research by identifying key influencing e-Image factors on within-platform shop's total sales and price premiums based on signaling theory and then performed a statistical investigation. These findings are expected to be a stepping stone for future studies on intelligent online handmade services as well as handmade products themselves. Furthermore, the findings of the study provide online handmade platform operators with practical guidelines on how to implement intelligent online handmade services. They should also help shop managers build their marketing strategies in a more specific and effective manner by suggesting key influencing e-Image factors. The results of this study should contribute to the vitalization of intelligent online handmade services by providing clues on how to maximize within-platform shops' total sales and price premiums.