• Economic Analysis
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.1-42
• /
• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.3-19
• /
• 1991

This paper attempts to identify key determinants of long run movements of real M2 by using the Johansen procedure for estimating and testing cointegration relations. It turns out that the real M2 equation has been stable over the long run despite rapid changes in financial structure since 1975. Moreover, the real M2 equation can be reduced to a velocity equation with the opportunity cost variable, expected inflation less the weighted average rate paid on M2 deposits, being the key determinant. However, it does not work to use a market interest rate such as the yield on corporate bonds in place of expected inflation for calculation of the opportunity cost. In the U.S., a market interest rate can be used, but not in Korea. Presumably, two somewhat different reasonings can be used to explain this result. One is that the yield on corporate bonds may not adequately reflect the inflationary expectations due to regulations on movements in interest rates. The other is that M2 deposits are not readily substitutable with such assets as corporate bonds because of market segmentations, regulations, and so on. From the policymaker's point of view, this implies that the inflation rate is an important indicator of a policy response. On the other hand, policymakers do not regard movements of the yield on corporate bonds as an important policy indicator. Altogether, the role of interest rates has been quite limited in Korea because of incomplete interest rate liberalization, an underdeveloped financial system, implementation procedures of policy measures, and so on. The result that M2 velocity has a positive cointegration relation with expected inflation minus the average rate on M2 implies that frequent adjustments of the regulated rates on M2 will be necessary as market conditions change. As the expected inflation gets higher, M2 velocity will eventually increase, given that the rates on M2 do not change. This will cause higher inflation. If interest rates are liberalized, then increases in market interest rates will result in lagged increases in deposits rates on M2. However, in Korea a substantial portion of deposit rates are regulated and will not change without the authority's initiatives. A tight monetary policy will cause increases in a few market interest rates. But the market mechanism, upward pressure for interest rate adjustments, never reaches regulated deposit rates. Hence the overall effects of tight monetary policy diminish considerably, only causing distortions in the flow of funds. Therefore, frequent adjustments of deposit rates are necessary as market conditions such as inflationary expectations change. Then it becomes important for the policymaker to actively engage in adjusting regulated deposit rates, because the financial sector in Korea is not fully developed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.4 no.1
• /
• pp.19-23
• /
• 2017

Based on a simultaneous-equation model consisting of aggregate demand and short-run aggregate supply, this paper estimates a reduced-form equation specifying that the equilibrium real GDP is a function of the real effective exchange rate, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, the real interest rate, foreign income, labor productivity, the real oil price, the expected inflation rate, and the interactive and intercept binary variables accounting for a potential change in the slope of the real effective exchange rate and shift in the intercept. Applying the exponential GARCH technique, it finds that aggregate output in Australia has a positive relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2003.Q3 - 2013.Q2, the government deficit as a percent of GDP, U.S. real GDP, labor productivity and the real oil price and a negative relationship with the real effective exchange rate during 2013.Q3 - 2016.Q1, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. These results suggest that real appreciation was expansionary before 2013.Q3 whereas real depreciation was expansionary after 2013.Q2 and that more government deficit as a percent of GDP would be helpful to stimulate the economy. Hence, the impact of real appreciation or real depreciation on real GDP may change overtime.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.647-654
• /
• 2021

This study examines the non-performing loans of rural banks and macroeconomic factors in Indonesia, including inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. Theoretically, the existence of erratic macroeconomic conditions can affect the level of non-performing credit risk in rural credit banks in Indonesia. The effect of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans has a different response for each economic sector. The main objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic factors (inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates) and bank-specific factors (credit) on the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) of Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period from January 2015 to December 2018. This study uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimation to determine the effect of independent variables consisting of macroeconomic factors and bank-specific factors. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, three variables that have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans are credit, inflation, and interest rates. Meanwhile, in the short term, there are only two variables that have a positive and significant effect on non-performing loans, namely, credit and interest rates. Inflation and exchange rate variables have a negative and insignificant effect on bad credit in the short term.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.277-314
• /
• 2024

This study analyzes the response of economic fundamentals to a misalignment shock of the real effective exchange rate in Korea. The estimation results of the equilibrium exchange rate determination model and time series model show that there is no significant difference in the direction of the deviation from equilibrium and that the won is significantly undervalued during the period before 1988, or during the currency and global financial crises. The cumulative impulse response analysis of the VAR model over the full period shows that an upward shock to the deviation from the equilibrium exchange rate reduces the GDP gap and inflation rate, while the effect on the call rate is not statistically significant. Furthermore, an upward misalignment shock initially worsens the goods and services balance, but the deficit in the goods and services balance shrinks significantly over time. In rolling regressions analysis, the entire sample is divided into two periods to estimate the impulse response function from the first period, and then the same procedure is repeated by moving the sample forward one by one. The cumulative impulse response results show that, as is the case for the full period, a positive exchange rate misalignment shock initially reduces the GDP gap, inflation, and worsens the goods and services balance, but the impact of this upward shock on these variables becomes increasingly weaker in the more recent sample. It also shows that the negative impact of upward shocks on the current account is smoothed out more recently during periods of undervaluation than during periods of overvaluation.

• THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
• /
• v.61
• /
• pp.165-190
• /
• 2014

The purpose of this study is to measure the trade insurance's macroeconomic effects by analyzing the causality between major economic variables(GDP per capita, market interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate) and trade insurance variable. I conducted empirical analyses using First-difference GMM(Generalized Method of Moments), System GMM and Panel-VAR Model, with panel data from 11 countries(Korea, United States, Japan, BRICs, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam) between 1992 and 2011. There are several important findings. Above all, Trade insurance is positively and significantly related to GDP. This results show that trade insurance serves to increase economic growth. In other words, trade insurance leads to economic growth by helping increase GDP per capita. Especially, trade insurance negatively related to unemployment rate, it is for sure that trade insurance contribute to decrease unemployment rate. And trade insurance helps control of inflation. It is also confirmed that trade insurance contributes to price stability, which in turn serves to stabilize the overall economy. And this research finds as uncertainty in the market increases, seen it as increase of exchange rate, increasing trade insurance supply is stabilize the exchange rate.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.1-23
• /
• 2014

This paper has studied the monetary policy in Korea with a time varying VAR model using four key macroeconomic variables. First, inclusion of the exchange rate was a crucial factor in evaluating Korean monetary policy since the monetary policy demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate movements during the crisis periods of both the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, a specification of the stochastic volatilities in TVP-VAR model is important in explaining excessive movements of all variables in the sample. The overall moderation of variables in 2000s was more or less due to a reduction of the stochastic volatilities but also somewhat due to the macroeconomic fundamental structures captured by impulse response functons. Third, the degree of the monetary policy effectiveness of inflation was mitigated in recent periods but with increased persistence. Lastly, the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization has advanced ever since the inflation targeting scheme was adopted. However, there still seems to be a room for improvement in this aspect since the degree of the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization was relatively weaker than to output stabilization.

• International Area Studies Review
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.49-67
• /
• 2008

In this paper, we address the problem of optimal monetary policy rule in the presence of abrupt shifts in the structure of the economy. To do so, we first estimate a Markov switching model for the US housing price inflation, and find evidence supporting the presence of two distinct regimes for the US housing price inflation. One of the two regimes identified appears 'usual', in that housing price inflation negatively responds to higher real interest rate. The other regime is 'unusual', in that the housing price inflation is positively related with real interest rate. We then solve an optimal control problem of the FRB under the presence of the two regimes thus identified. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'usual' regime require the FRB to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure, while the FRB is recommended to accommodate it in the unusual regime. It is also found that the optimal degree of responses is more conservative when the FRB acknowledges the uncertainty about future regime.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.11
• /
• pp.67-73
• /
• 2020

The paper examines the influence of internal factors and external factors on liquidity of Vietnamese listed enterprises. The study uses robust regression techniques in the fixed effects linear panel data using data collected from companies listing on the stock market in Vietnam during 2008-2019, with a total of 6,700 observations. Liquidity of Vietnamese listed enterprises is measured by current assets to current liabilities, whereas firm size, capital adequacy, profitability, leverage are used as internal determinants. Further, economic activity, inflation rate, exchange rate, and interest rate are the external factors which are considered. The research results indicate that capital adequacy, return on equity, leverage, economic activity have a positive effect on firm's liquidity, whereas return on assets and exchange rate have a negative effect on firm's liquidity and firm size, inflation rate and lending rate have no correlation with firm's liquidity. Based on the research results, the author suggests that the firms should have optimum current ratio by balancing the current assets and current liabilities in order to avoid a situation of high liquidity or low liquidity. This research seeks to bridge a gap which is present in the body of literature on listed enterprise's liquidity in Vietnam. The findings may be useful for financial managers, investors, and financial management consultants.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.37-47
• /
• 2022

This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.