• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.79-89
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• 2023

The paper aims to investigate the asymmetric long-run and short-run relationships between inflation and remittance outflows in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (hereafter KSA) over the period 1971-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The statistical tests have supported the validity and stability of the model. The Wald F-test statistics confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the model variables; remittance outflows, positive (negative) shocks in inflation rates, investment, real GDP, and trade openness. Moreover, the empirical results confirm the existence of an asymmetric effect of the inflation rate on remittance outflows. The response of foreign workers to an increase in inflation rates differs from their response to a decrease in inflation rates. However, this asymmetric relationship between the increases/decreases in inflation and remittance outflows is significantly weak. The weakness of this relationship is due to the high marginal remittance propensity of migrant workers, which is explained by the low consumption propensity of foreign workers and their ability to adjust to the high cost of living due to inflation and the imposition of accompanying fees. Finally, the change in the inflation rate is not among the main factors influencing foreign remittance decisions in Saudi Arabia.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.175-219
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• 2024

This study investigates the impact of inflation rate fluctuations on economic growth in China, with a particular focus on potential non-linear characteristics. The global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic notably heightens the study's relevance. The research that the unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to economic growth in China first strengthens and then weakens over time. Furthermore, there is an inflation rate threshold effect on economic growth, identified at 2%. Below this threshold, inflation positively influences economic growth, whereas above it, the impact turns negative. This finding underscores the importance of balancing economic growth with inflation control in the formulation of monetary policy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.139-145
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• 2019

This study examines the dynamic linkages between food price inflation and its volatility in the context of Sri Lanka. The empirical evidence derived from the monthly data for the period from 2003M1 to 2017M12 for Sri Lanka. The relationship between inflation rate and inflation volatility has attracted more attention by theoretical and empirical macroeconomists. Empirical studies on the relationship between food inflation and food inflation variability is scarce in the literature. Food price inflation is defined as log difference of food price series. The volatility of a food price inflation is measured by conditional variance generated by the FIGARCH model. Preliminary analysis showed that food inflation is stationary series. Granger causality test reveals that food inflation seems to exert positive impact on inflation variability. We find no evidence for inflation uncertainty affecting food inflation rates. Hence, the findings of the study supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis in both cases of consumer food price inflation and wholesale food price inflation. This implies that past information on food inflation can help improve the one-step-ahead prediction of food inflation variability but not vice versa. Our results have some important policy implications for the design of monetary policy, food policy thereby promoting macroeconomic stability.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.301-335
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• 2014

In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gal$\acute{i}$ (2011a, b) to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.531-555
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• 2018

This article aims to review the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting framework focusing on Mongolia. The empirical analysis estimates the policy reaction function to see if the inflation targeting has been linked with a monetary policy rule emphasizing on inflation stabilization since its adoption in 2007. The study contributes to the literature by examining the linkage between Mongolian monetary policy rule and inflation targeting directly and thoroughly for the first time and also by taking into account a recent progress in the inflation targeting framework toward forward-looking mode. The main findings were: the Mongolian current monetary policy rule under inflation targeting is characterized as inflation-responsive rule with forward-looking manner (one quarter ahead); the inflation responsiveness is, however, weak enough to be pro-cyclical to inflation pressure; and the rule is also responsive to exchange rate due to the "fear of floating", which weakens the policy reaction to inflation and output gap.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.219-228
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• 2020

The study investigates the impact of inflation rate on economic growth to find the best-fit model for economic growth in Vietnam. The study applied Vector Autoregressive (VAR), cointegration models, and unit root test for the time-series data from 1996 to 2018 to test the inflation impact on the economic growth in the short and long term. The study showed that the two variables are stationary at lag first difference I(1) with 1%, 5% and 10%; trace test indicates two cointegrating equations at the 0.05 level, the INF does not granger cause GDP, the optimal lag I(1) and the variables are closely related as R2 is 72%. It finds that the VAR model's results are the basis to perform economic growth; besides, the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the best-fitted VAR forecast model.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.65-76
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• 2023

Purpose: It suggests that in order to compare economic development between large cities, this paper aims to exclude factors such as GDP, trade, manpower, R&D, then present newly an analysis of others (inflation, exports, middle-class, competitiveness, digital). Research design, data, and methodology: In the period of rapid digitalization of the world, we would like to deal with different analysis factors than before. This is because digitalization and prices have the greatest impact on the region in terms of national competitiveness. Random sampling was used as the sample size of this study to generate various values for the annual income of the middle class and the competitiveness index, and the analysis method was used. This is because the income of the middle class can lead the digitalization of the country and accelerate it to standardization. Results: Based on these analysis, it is necessary to reduce the inflation rate of digitalization, it is necessary to lower inflation rates. This can be more fundamental than interest rates. If the demand for digitalization is reduced, national competitiveness, national competitiveness will lower national competitiveness. By building a hub for middle class, you can reduce this inflation rate without China's oversupply. Conclusion: This is because it is difficult to maintain competitiveness through interest rate control, as prices rise, and inflation can become unstable. This study can seek digital acceptance by the middle class as a solution to problems like the regional economic confrontation of new globalization inflation environment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.43-52
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• 2020

This paper examines how macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate differences, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth and external debt growth, affect capital flight in the ASEAN-8 countries. We apply a panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data for eight countries from the period 1994 to 2018. We use the residual approach used by the World Bank to measure the value of capital flight. The results show that the interest rate differences, exchange rates, economic growth and foreign debt growth had a positive and significant effect on outward capital flight. A further implication of this finding is that the interest rate differences, exchange rate, economic growth and foreign debt growth are factors that trigger an increase in capital outflow in the ASEAN-8 countries. Nonetheless, inflation rate is not considered to be the main factor influencing capital flight, as average inflation in the ASEAN-8 countries remains relatively stable. This paper will be beneficial for policymakers in the ASEAN-8 countries and encourage them to constantly pay attention to these four variables, as they significantly influence capital flight, whereas they can disregard the impact of the inflation variable that is not significant in influencing capital flight.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.153-166
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• 2022

The study estimates the Structured VAR and the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for the Vietnamese economy based on the new Keynesian model for small and open economies, with the output gap, inflation, policy interest rate, the Vietnamese exchange rate, and the inflation and interest rate in the United States. The paper aims to clarify the impulse response of the macro variables through their shocks. It offers to model the SVAR and DSGE processes, as well as describe why and how interest rate policy is important in the impulse response of macro variables like the output gap and inflation process. The study supports the central role of monetary policy by giving empirical evidence for the new Keynesian theory, according to which an interest rate shock causes the output gap to widen and inflation to decrease. Finally, the application of the DSGE model is becoming more and more popular in the State Bank of Viet Nam to improve its policy planning, analyzing, and forecasting policy towards sustainable and stable growth.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.1-32
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• 2010

The global financial crisis has exerted enormous impacts on the attainment of inflation target in Korea. The annual average CPI inflation was 3.3% during the targeting period of 2007-2009 and the target was $3.0{\pm}0.5%$. Thus Korea has succeeded in keeping annual average CPI inflation just below the upper limit of the 2007-2009 target under the global crisis. This paper intends to evaluate the performance of the inflation targeting system in Korea. First, it estimates the conventional call rate reaction equation under the global crisis and finds that the policy interest rates never reacted to expected inflation, output gap, and won/dollar exchange rate, as expected by theory. Second, it identifies the shock of global financial crisis into core and non-core, applying the structural VAR model. The core shock was defined to have no (medium- to) long-run impact on real output. The core shock was identified to have the character of the demand shock, since it has the positive impact on the inflation and output in the short run. The structural core inflation due to core shock was an attractor of headline inflation, not vice versa. Therefore, the structural core inflation that reflects the demand-side shock would be the better intermediate target for the final headline inflation target than the official core inflation that excludes the volatile inflation of agricultural and oil-related products. During the inflation targeting period of 2007-2009, the structural core inflation was more volatile than the official core inflation, because the global crisis has very large negative impacts on the domestic demand as well as the prices of agricultural and oil-related products. This paper shows that the negative core shock during the fourth quarter of 2008 was larger than that in the financial crisis in 1998. But the core shock turned into positive very quickly in 2009, as the Korean economy recovered very quickly from crisis. The volatile changes in structural core inflation suggests that the Bank of Korea barely managed to attain the 2007-2009 inflation target, owing to the very large negative impacts of the global financial crisis on the domestic demand. It also suggests that the rapid rise in core inflation with the rapid recovery of the Korean economy will lead to rapid rise in headline inflation.