• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-44
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• 2011

본 연구는 교역조건 충격이 경기 변동의 주요 동인으로 작용하는 동시에 비교 역재 부문이 존재하는 소규모 개방경제를 대상으로, 이론모형을 바탕으로 한 모의실험의 방법론을 이용하여 다양한 통화정책이 갖는 사회후생상의 함의를 정량적으로 검토한다. 본 연구의 주요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 교역조건 충격이 경기 변동을 야기하는 주요 동인으로 작용하는 경제의 경우에는, 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅이 소비자 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅이나 고정환율제도와 비교하여 보다 높은 사회후생 수준을 제시할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅의 사회후생 개선효과는 교역조건 충격의 변동성이 커질수록, 반면 지속성은 낮을수록 확대되는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 비교역재 물가 인플레이션 타깃팅의 사회후생 증진효과는 수입재 가격 변동보다는 국내 실질한계비용에 직접적으로 영향을 미치게 되는 수출재 가격 변동과 관련이 있는 것으로 드러났다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.3-33
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• 2004

본 연구는 장기적으로 자본생산성이 하락하면서 성장률과 실질이자율이 하락하는 경제에서 인플레이션율이 부동산가격, 특히 주택의 매매가격과 전세가격의 격차에 어떠한 영향을 미칠 것인지에 대해 살펴보고 있다. 즉, 실질이자율이 하락할 경우 전세가격에 대비한 부동산의 매매가격은 상승하며, 따라서 자본생산성이 하락하면서 성장률 및 실질이자율이 하락할 경우에는, 통화당국이 동일한 수준의 인플레이션율을 유지한다고 하더라도 통상 인플레이션의 폐해로 거론되는 실물자산(부동산) 대비 금융자산(전세자금) 가치의 하락이라는 부작용이 확대될 수 있는 것으로 보인다. 이와 같은 이론적 논의는 자료추적이 가능한 1986년 이후 우리나라 주택의 매매 전세가격 비율의 변화추이를 설명하는 데에 기여할 수 있다. 즉, 1990년대 이후 전반적인 인플레이션율의 하향안정은 매매 전세가격 비율을 안정시키는 한 요인으로 작용해온 것으로 보이며, 최근 2001년 이후 나타난 매매 전세가격 비율의 상승은 인플레이션 기대의 확산보다는 실질이자율의 하락에 의하여 주도된 것으로 해석된다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.303-311
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• 1992

It is very important to estimate the future medical care expenditure, because medical care expenditure escalation is a big problem not only in the health industry but also in the Korean economy today. This study was designed to project the medical care expenditure in view of population age change. The data of this study were the population projection data based on National Census Data(1990) of the National Statistical Office and the Statistical Reports of the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The future medical care expenditure was eatimated by the regression model and the optional simulation model. The significant results are as follows : 1. The future medical care expenditure will be 3,963 billion Won in the year 2000, 4,483 billion Won in 2010, and 4,826 billion Won in 2020, based on the 1990 market price considering only the population age change. 2. The proportion of the total medical care expenditure in the elderly over 65 will be 10.4% in 2000, 13.5% in 2010, and 16.9% in 2020. 3. The future medical care expenditure will be 4,306 billion Won in the year 2000, 5,101 billion Won in 2010, and 5,699 billion Won in 2020 based on the 1990 market price considering the age structure change and the change of the case-cost estimated by the regression model. 4. When we consider the age-structure change and inflation compared with the preceding year, the future medical care expenditurein 2020 will be 21 trillion Won based on a 5% inflation rate, 42 trillion Won based on a 7.5% inflation rate, and 84 trillion Won based on a 10% inflation rate. Consideration of the aged(65 years old and over) will be essential to understand the acute increase of medical care expenditure due to changes in age structure of the population. Therefore, alternative policies and programs for the caring of the aged should be further studied.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.146-170
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper addresses the concepts of FDI-Trade-Growth nexus in Myanmar's economy and empirically investigates the interrelationships of trade, investment and economic growth to reveal the growth model of Myanmar's economy. Additionally, this paper also addresses the cooperative strategies between Myanmar and South Korea through a case study related to South Korea's economic growth. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the interrelationship among FDI, trade, growth, labor force and inflation in Myanmar. This study employs ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) to conduct an analysis of the FDI-Trade-Growth relationships using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 and a conducted case study of South Korea provided for practical implication on cooperative strategies between Myanmar and Korea. Findings - Export equation was chosen through the diagnostic tests. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: Export in Myanmar is positively influenced by labor force, FDI, capital formation and negatively impacted by import and instable inflation rate in the long run. In the short run, GDP and import positively influence export. The Granger causality test proves that Myanmar is an FDI/labor force-led Growth economy, where FDI and labor force are main drivers of export followed by GDP in Myanmar. The case study of South Korea provided that Korea's tax and credit system for promoting export-led FDI industries and cooperative units for joint ventures between Korea and Myanmar in export-led FDI industries are recommended. Originality/value - No study has yet to be conducted on the interrelationships of macroeconomic factors from the perspectives of FDI-Trade-Growth Nexus in Myanmar under the assumption of labor force and inflation rate as fundamental conditions. The current study also covered a relatively longer period of time series data from 1970 to 2016. This paper also conducts a case study of South Korea's experience in order to evaluate the findings and provide better policy implications.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.85-93
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• 2020

This study aimed to explore the impact of macroeconomic (Real GDP growth (GDPG), Inflation rate (INF)) and bank -specific variables (profitability (ROA), capital adequacy (CADEQ), non-performing loans (NPL), deposit growth (DEPG)) on the liquidity (lIQ) of 13 listed Jordanian commercial banks for the period 2011-2018. Panel data analysis, Pooled least square, fixed effects model and random effects model, Lagrange multiplier test, and Hausman test were used. The random effects model output shows that, macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity since inflation has a positive impact while GDPG has a negative impact on banks (LIQ). On the other hand among the bank-specific variables capital adequacy and deposit growth have a positive significant impact on banks (LIQ), while (NPL) and (SIZE) have a negative significant impact on Jordanian commercial banks liquidity. But ROA has a negative insignificant impact on (LIQ). The findings of the study suggest that commercial banks departments need to pay attention to the economic and internal variables of banks in order to maintain acceptable levels of liquidity.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.91-101
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• 1988

Break-even analysis is a simple and useful tool in decisions and planning activities though its use is somewhat limited to short-term analysis. The subject is discussed in the fields of engineering economics, production management, cost and managerial accounting, finance, marketing, and so on. Conventional break-even analysis suits the case of stable price and low interest rate. In this paper, we try to overcome the limit by considering following factors, namely, time value of money, depreciation, tax, and capital gains. Also, considering learning effect, we increase applicability to a new project which raises certain changes such as a replacement of production process, an employee turnover, etc. Thus, we suggest a model which has a dynamic break-even quantity per period for the project. Furthermore, we examine the effect of inflation in break-even analysis.

• 지역연구
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.75-92
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• 1997

This paper is concerned with an estimation of optimal investment of road sector in 1996-2005. The main method is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Korea in which the optimal solution is derived in a recursively dynamic path. The model is composed of three main modules: the supply, the demand and the price. In this paper, the investment demand for the road is optimized with subject to national economic growth and price inflation. If the annual inflation level and the economic growth rate during 1996-2005 are set to 4.5%-5.0% and 6.0%-6.5% respectively, the optimal demand for the road investment is estimated as 155.1-180.1 trillion Won or 3.33%-3.89% of the GDP for ten years. It implies that the additional increase of the road investment by 0.61%-1.15% of the GDP is required for sustainable economic development, since the share of the road investment in the GDP of the latest 5 years has stayed around 2.27%. However, it is necessary to reduce construction investments on housing as well as to promote private financing of the road in order to maximize an efficiency of resource allocation.

• The Korean Journal of Physiology
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.49-54
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• 1976

The change of heart rates during Flack Test was observed in the pregnant women, $24{\sim}48$weeks, of gestational age, to analyze mechanical and neural regulatory factors in responses to the positive lung inflation. The results obtained were summarized as followings: 1) Endurance tine of Flack Test was 37.6 sec, in the nonpregnant women, and 25.1 sec. in the pregnant women. 2) When Flack Test was employed, heart rate was decreased in early stage of Flack Test in the pregnant women, while heart rate was increased in the nonpregnant women. 3) In the pregnant women bradycardia due to abdominal mechanical intervention in early stage of Flack Test was prominent, while tachycardia was found in the nonpregnant women. 4) During Flack Test, tachycardia due to sympathetic central reflex activation was observed immediately after bradycardia in early stage of Flack Test. 5) It may be noted that Flack Test employed in the present study is a useful model to evaluate and analyze the neural and mechanical abdominal intervention factor in response to the positive inflation of lung in pregnant women.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.81-91
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• 2021

This paper investigates the long run hedging ability of precious metals against the risks associated with adverse conditions of economic and financial variables for Pakistan, the USA, China, and India. Monthly data of gold, silver, platinum, stock returns, exchange rate, industrial production, and inflation was collected for the selected economies. Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) unit root test was employed to access the unit root properties of the data series and identify the break dates. Furthermore, this study used the Johansen cointegration test with and without structural breaks to identify the long-run relationship between metals prices and different financial and economic variables. The findings suggest that the time series under study have unit root problem at level with and without structural breaks. Without considering structural breaks, the Johansen trace test indicates that in Pakistan and China, gold, silver, and platinum hold a cointegrating relationship with macroeconomic and financial variables. For the US, gold indicates cointegration which supports the hedging ability of gold against inflation, stock, and industrial production in the long run. The results of the cointegration test after incorporating the structural breaks provide even stronger evidence of the long-run relationship of precious metals and consumer prices, exchange rate, and stock prices.