• Title/Summary/Keyword: Inference models

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Application of ANFIS for Prediction of Daily Water Supply (상수도 1일 급수량 예측을 위한 ANFIS적용)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Hoon;Kang, Il-Hwan;Moon, Byoung-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.281-290
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    • 2000
  • This study investigates the prediction of daily water supply, which is a necessary for the efficient management of water distribution system. ANFIS, namely artificial intelligence, is a neural network into which fuzzy information is inputted and then processed. In this study, daily water supply was predicted through an application of network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) for daily water supply prediction. This study was investigated methods for predicting water supply based on data about the amount of water which supplied in Kwangju city. For variables choice, four analyses of input data were conducted: correlation analysis, autocorrelation analysis, partial autocorrelation analysis, and cross-correlation analysis. Input variables were (a) the amount of water supply, (b) the mean temperature, and (c) the population of the area supplied with water. Variables were combined in an integrated model. Data of the amount of daily water supply only was modelled and its validity was verified in the case that the meteorological office of weather forecast is not always reliable. Proposed models include accidental cases such as a suspension of water supply. The maximum error rate between the estimation of the model and the actual measurement was 18.46% and the average error was lower than 2.36%. The model is expected to be a real-time estimation of the operational control of water works and water/drain pipes.

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Generation of Simulation input Stream using Threshold Bootstrap (임계값 부트스트랩을 사용한 시뮬레이션 입력 시나리오의 생성)

  • Kim Yun Bae;Kim Jae Bum
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2005
  • The bootstrap is a method of computational inference that simulates the creation of new data by resampling from a single data set. We propose a new job for the bootstrap: generating inputs from one historical trace using Threshold Bootstrap. In this regard, the most important quality of bootstrap samples is that they be functionally indistinguishable from independent samples of the same stochastic process. We describe a quantitative measure of difference between two time series, and demonstrate the sensitivity of this measure for discriminating between two data generating processes. Utilizing this distance measure for the task of generating inputs, we show a way of tuning the bootstrap using a single observed trace. This application of the threshold bootstrap will be a powerful tool for Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo simulation analysis relies on built-in input generators. These generators make unrealistic assumptions about independence and marginal distributions. The alternative source of inputs, historical trace data, though realistic by definition, provides only a single input stream for simulation. One benefit of our method would be expanding the number of inputs achieving reality by driving system models with actual historical input series. Another benefit might be the automatic generation of lifelike scenarios for the field of finance.

Bootstrapping Composite Quantile Regression (복합 분위수 회귀에 대한 붓스트랩 방법의 응용)

  • Seo, Kang-Min;Bang, Sung-Wan;Jhun, Myoung-Shic
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.341-350
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    • 2012
  • Composite quantile regression model is considered for iid error case. Since the regression coefficients are the same across different quantiles, composite quantile regression can be used to combine the strength across multiple quantile regression models. For the composite quantile regression, bootstrap method is examined for statistical inference including the selection of the number of quantiles and confidence intervals for the regression coefficients. Feasibility of the bootstrap method is demonstrated through a simulation study.

Speech Enhancement Using Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Temporal Continuity (시간 연속성을 갖는 비음수 행렬 분해를 이용한 음질 개선)

  • Nam, Seung-Hyon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.240-246
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, speech enhancement using nonnegative matrix factorization with temporal continuity has been addressed. Speech and noise signals are modeled as Possion distributions, and basis vectors and gain vectors of NMF are modeled as Gamma distributions. Temporal continuity of the gain vector is known to be critical to the quality of enhanced speech signals. In this paper, temporal continiuty is implemented by adopting Gamma-Markov chain priors for noise gain vectors during the separation phase. Simulation results show that the Gamma-Markov chain models temporal continuity of noise signals and track changes in noise effectively.

Intelligent Steering Control System Based on Voice Instructions

  • Seo, Ki-Yeol;Oh, Se-Woong;Suh, Sang-Hyun;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.5 no.5
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    • pp.539-546
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    • 2007
  • The important field of research in ship operation is related to the high efficiency of transportation, the convenience of maneuvering ships and the safety of navigation. For these purposes, many intelligent technologies for ship automation have been required and studied. In this paper, we propose an intelligent voice instruction-based learning (VIBL) method and discuss the building of a ship's steering control system based on this method. The VIBL system concretely consists of two functions: a text conversion function where an instructor's inputted voice is recognized and converted to text, and a linguistic instruction based learning function where the text instruction is understood through a searching process of given meaning elements. As a study method, the fuzzy theory is adopted to build maneuvering models of steersmen and then the existing LIBL is improved and combined with the voice recognition technology to propose the VIBL. The ship steering control system combined with VIBL is tested in a ship maneuvering simulator and its validity is shown.

Stereo Matching using Belief Propagation with Line Grouping (신뢰확산 알고리듬을 이용한 선 그룹화 기반 스테레오 정합)

  • Kim Bong-Gyum;Eem Jae-Kwon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.3 s.303
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2005
  • In the Markov network which models disparity map with the Markov Random Fields(MRF), the belief propagation algorithm is operated by message passing between nodes corresponding to each pixel. The initial message value is converged by iterations of the algorithm and the algorithm requires many iterations to get converged messages. In this paper, we simplify the algorithm by regarding the objects in the disparity map as combinations of lines with same message valued nodes to reduce iterations of the algorithm.

Mother's Attributions and Control Behavior for Child's Misbehavior of Moral Norm and Prosocial Behavior (아동의 도덕규범과 친사회적 문제행동 상황에서 어머니의 아동역량 판단, 귀인 및 통제)

  • 신양재;유안진
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2000
  • This study integrated mother's control behavior of child's misbehavior within social domain analysis and the framework of attributional models of social cognition. The purpose of this study was to identify, compare and contrast maternal attributions and control responses according to child's age and domains of social behavior, and to investigate that mother's social cognition factors(authoritarian attitude and self competence perception) influence material inference and responses for their child's acts. Then this study was to find out whether mother's attribution would mediate their socialization techniques. For empirical research, 654 mothers with 5.6 year old and 8.9 year old children as subjects answered the structured questionnaire. The data were analyzed by frequencies, t-test, oneway ANOVA, and multiple regression. The major findings were as follows: First, according to child's two domains of misbehavior, there were differences in mothers'attribution and control behavior. Also mothers regarded older child's behavior as more dispositional cause and as more deserving of punishment than younger child's. Second, mother's authoritarian altitude of parenting, self-competence perception, and educational level were significantly related to mother's judgment. Third, the more authoritarian attitude mothers had, the more dispositional factor of children they attributed. And the lower self-competence mothers perceived. the more internal factor of child they attributed. Finally, maternal attributions and control responses are interrelated. When they attributed their children's misdeeds to internal dispositions, they respond with more stronger control behavior. The results suggested maternal social cognition mediate socialization behavior.

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Visual Object Tracking based on Particle Filters with Multiple Observation (다중 관측 모델을 적용한 입자 필터 기반 물체 추적)

  • Koh, Hyeung-Seong;Jo, Yong-Gun;Kang, Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.539-544
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    • 2004
  • We investigate a visual object tracking algorithm based upon particle filters, namely CONDENSATION, in order to combine multiple observation models such as active contours of digitally subtracted image and the particle measurement of object color. The former is applied to matching the contour of the moving target and the latter is used to independently enhance the likelihood of tracking a particular color of the object. Particle filters are more efficient than any other tracking algorithms because the tracking mechanism follows Bayesian inference rule of conditional probability propagation. In the experimental results, it is demonstrated that the suggested contour tracking particle filters prove to be robust in the cluttered environment of robot vision.

Black-Box Classifier Interpretation Using Decision Tree and Fuzzy Logic-Based Classifier Implementation

  • Lee, Hansoo;Kim, Sungshin
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2016
  • Black-box classifiers, such as artificial neural network and support vector machine, are a popular classifier because of its remarkable performance. They are applied in various fields such as inductive inferences, classifications, or regressions. However, by its characteristics, they cannot provide appropriate explanations how the classification results are derived. Therefore, there are plenty of actively discussed researches about interpreting trained black-box classifiers. In this paper, we propose a method to make a fuzzy logic-based classifier using extracted rules from the artificial neural network and support vector machine in order to interpret internal structures. As an object of classification, an anomalous propagation echo is selected which occurs frequently in radar data and becomes the problem in a precipitation estimation process. After applying a clustering method, learning dataset is generated from clusters. Using the learning dataset, artificial neural network and support vector machine are implemented. After that, decision trees for each classifier are generated. And they are used to implement simplified fuzzy logic-based classifiers by rule extraction and input selection. Finally, we can verify and compare performances. With actual occurrence cased of the anomalous propagation echo, we can determine the inner structures of the black-box classifiers.

Prognostics for Industry 4.0 and Its Application to Fitness-for-Service Assessment of Corroded Gas Pipelines (인더스트리 4.0을 위한 고장예지 기술과 가스배관의 사용적합성 평가)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.649-664
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: This paper introduces the technology of prognostics for Industry 4.0 and presents its application procedure for fitness-for-service assessment of natural gas pipelines according to ISO 13374 framework. Methods: Combining data-driven approach with pipe failure models, we present a hybrid scheme for the gas pipeline prognostics. The probability of pipe failure is obtained by using the PCORRC burst pressure model and First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. A fuzzy inference system is also employed to accommodate uncertainty due to corrosion growth and defect occurrence. Results: With a modified field dataset, the probability of failure on the pipeline is calculated. Then, its residual useful life (RUL) is predicted according to ISO 16708 standard. As a result, the fitness-for-service of the test pipeline is well-confirmed. Conclusion: The framework described in ISO 13374 is applicable to the RUL prediction and the fitness-for-service assessment for gas pipelines. Therefore, the technology of prognostics is helpful for safe and efficient management of gas pipelines in Industry 4.0.