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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

Environmental Impacts Assessment of the Wheat Flour Production Process Using the Life Cycle Assessment Method (LCA 기법을 이용한 소맥분 생산 공정의 환경 영향 평가)

  • Chu, Duk-Sung;Kwon, Hyuk-Ku;Kim, Jong-Geu;Lee, Jang-Hoon
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2008
  • The life cycle assessment method for environmental impact assessment was used, in this study, to assess the production process of wheat flour which is the most important material in the food industry. Environmental impact assessments were compared between that of the Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea (method I) with that of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (method II). Life cycle inventories (LCI) was performed using internal and external databases and the production statistics database of company S. The procedure of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) was followed in terms of classification, characterization, normalization and weighting to identify the key issues. The impact categories of method I were divided into 8 categories with consideration of : abiotic resources depletion, global warming, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidant creation, acidification and eutrophication. The impact categories of method II were divided into 10 categories with consideration of: abiotic resources depletion, global warming, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidant creation, acidification, eutrophication, human toxicity, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, marine aquatic ecotoxicity and terrestrial ecotoxicity.

Protein Therapeutics Industry Analysis and its Business Opportunities (단백질 의약품의 사업화기회분석)

  • Choi, Yun-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.478-481
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    • 2007
  • To date, modern medicine has relied heavily on synthetically or chemically produced drugs to treat or prevent diseases and conditions. However, developments in the field of molecular biology have led to an increase in the knowledge of biological systems and their interactions. Proteins are biomolecules that are essential in determining the structure and carrying out most of the functions in living cells. The future of pharmacy belongs to a special category of protein therapeutics. Based on the result of industry analysis, it is suggested how to commercialize protein therapeutics for biotech-enterprises.

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A Study on Service & Advertising Marketing Plan using LBS Smart Mobile Technology based on Delphi Research Method (스마트모바일 LBS 기술을 활용한 서비스와 광고마케팅 방안 연구 - 델파이 조사 기법을 활용 -)

  • Ahn, Jong-Bae
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.281-288
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    • 2013
  • This research is try to find what kind of LBS service & advertising methods are needed and demanded based on LBS technology by Delphi research method. The professional 50 panels are selected and questioned 3 times for what kind LBS service & advertising methods are needed and demanded. Through first questionnaire six category and detail kinds of LBS service & advertising method are found. and through second & third questionnaire degree of need & demand for detail LBS service & advertising methods are found. The result of this research will help to develope LBS industry & advertising industry by making them prepare for demanded LBS service.

A Study on Utilization of De Facto Standards for National Standards (사실상표준의 국가표준으로의 활용 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Tae-Jin;Chung, Soon-Suk;Kim, Kwang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.167-178
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    • 2009
  • De facto standards can be divided into the U.S. group standards' and 'forum and the consortium standard. mainly applies to high-tech industry forums, and a consortium standard of the industry given the nature of the standard are frequently revised, the country Due to the introduction of standard time. Economic loss to consider when in reality, the introduction of national standards of the United States is limited to the desirable standard, and the fact the actual award of standards, national standards, or if you want to introduce standard, each of depending on the type of attitude and strategy for standards by category, based on the characteristics of each body strategy and are needed. Through this study on utilization of de facto standards for national standards, it is researched that major de facto standards bodies status and domestic industrial fields which need utilization of de facto standards for national standards. Through overseas Case, effective usage of de facto standards will be obtained.

A Study on Access Authorization Inference Modes for Information Security of Specialized Private Networks (특성화 사설 네트워크 정보보호를 위한 접근권한 추론모드에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Woo Seok
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2014
  • The most significant change and trend in the information security market in the year of 2014 is in relation to the issue and incidents of personal information security, which leads the area of information security to a new phase. With the year of 2011 as the turning point, the security technology advanced based on the policies and conditions that combine personal information and information security in the same category. Such technical changes in information security involve various types of information, rapidly changing security policies in response to emerging illegal techniques, and embracing consistent changes in the network configuration accordingly. This study presents the result of standardization and quantification of external access inference by utilizing the measurements to fathom the access authorization performance in advance for information security in specialized networks designed to carry out certain tasks for a group of clients in the easiest and most simple manner. The findings will provide the realistic data available with the access authorization inference modes to control illegal access to the edge of a client network.

A Study on The Causal Relationships Between The International Model of ICT Using The National Quality Award Model (국가품질상 모델을 적용한 ICT산업의 인과 관계 분석 연구)

  • Shin, Dongkeun;Hwang, Changyu
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the measuring instruments for evaluation criteria for Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award(MBNQA), suitable for ICT Industries, and to analyze the cause-effect relationship between those criteria through aforementioned instruments. MBNQA is formed with seven categories: Leadership, Strategic planning, Focus on patients, other customers and markets, Measurement, analysis and knowledge management, Human resource focus, Process management and Results. As excluding the Human Resource Focus category, this study empirically examined the cause-effect relationship among six categories. In order to empirically examine the research model, this study calculated Cronbach's alpha and reliability index, thus examined the reliability and executed Exploratory Factor Analysis. Furthermore, Average Variance Extracted(AVE) is used to verify the discriminant validity. Lastly, the hypothesis testing was made complete through significance test on the paths between variables. The result of this study shows that both leadership and social responsibility have direct cause-effect relationship with Measurement, analysis and knowledge management, Human resource focus, Process management and also that this relationship has direct impact on Human resource focus, Measurement, analysis and knowledge management as well, consequently exerting influence on the result through Process management, Finance and Market data.

Comparing Nanotechnology Web Portal Requirements Using a Kano Method

  • Bae, Seounghun;Kim, Junhyun;Kim, JaeSin;Kim, Myung Shin;Ju, Yonghwan;Seo, Seung Hyun;Han, In-Kyu;Choi, Younghoon
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.17-32
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    • 2017
  • We compared nanotechnology web portal requirements using a Kano method, to identify similarities and dissimilarities in Kano-categorizations of features and functions required of nanotechnology among users in universities, government research institutes, and industry. Based upon data obtained from 130 user members of the National Nanotechnology Policy Centre, this study analyzed assessed asymmetries in web users' feelings based on hypothesized provision and non-provision of web portal requirements. In doing this, this study utilized measures and procedures suggested in the literature such as the most frequent-response categorization, customer satisfaction (dissatisfaction) coefficient, category strength and total strength, and Fong test. This study found that overall, sectors were an important factor in explaining the relationships between web portal requirements and user satisfaction/expectations. When these requirements were classified, users' perceptions of information contents requirements were consistent across the sectors, but the other functional requirements including communication and collaborations considerably varied.

A Study on Amendment of Approval Specifications for Traditional Korean Medicines (한약제제 허가기준 개선방안 연구(I))

  • Han Byong-Hyon;Hwang Gwi-Seo
    • Journal of Society of Preventive Korean Medicine
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to improve the current regulation guidelines for developing traditional Korean medicines with effectiveness and productivity, in order to cope with the upcoming ICH on specifications on oriental herbal drugs. Also, major purposes of this study are to motivate R&D and to pioneer foreign markets for domestic herbal drug companies. First, after examining concepts of traditional Korean medicines and comparing the numbers and differentiation of herbal drugs registered on Pharmacopeia among Korea, China, and Japan, the current new drug development requirements for traditional Korean medicines were reviewed in detail, followed by comparison of foreign regulation systems including USA, EU, China, and Japan. Second, empirical cases on failure of development for new traditional Korean medicines under the current regulation system in the domestic companies including Dong-A, Kwangdong, and Samchondang, were collected and analyzed. As a result, hanbangsaengyak, the new category for traditional Korean medicines was newly developed on the basis of scientification of data between saengyak and hanyak, from the perspectives of harmonization between oriental medicine and western medicine and of balance between food and drug, in terms of industrialization, publicity, modernization, and effectiveness of administration. In addition, the new regulation requirements for the new hanbangsaengyak preparations were discussed by establishing principles of reinforcing preclinical test and of simplifying clinical trials in Korea. Finally, the further researches to articulate the complete specifications for pre-clinical and clinical requirements for traditional Korean medicines were strongly suggested.

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Types and Esthetic Characteristics by Function in Portable Smart Fashion Design (휴대형 스마트 패션 디자인의 기능에 따른 유형 및 심미적 특성)

  • Si Eun Lim;Heeyoung Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2023
  • The smart fashion industry is showing steady growth worldwide, which will create new value throughout the fashion industry and become an essential element for efficient lifestyles. This study attempted to examine the development trend of smart fashion products from a design perspective and present the direction of design as a fashion item incorporating smart technology from a functional perspective. For this purpose, the category of portable smart fashion and the characteristics of the research object were considered through current status survey and previous research review. Among smart fashion, accessories and clothing/fabric products that have been released thus far that apply portable fashion design principles are selected and its characteristics are analyzed. In addition, function keywords were extracted based on the product description provided by the manufacturer and the function-oriented types were classified to identify each type's design characteristics. Therefore, the area receiving the signal and the sensor size should be considered, as should the fashion accessory type that combines various materials and colors. The clothing/textile type requires a design that mainly focuses on functions related to bio-signal interactions.