• Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.327-344
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• 2011

This study is the first step for us toward improving high school students' capability of statistical inferences, such as obtaining and interpreting the confidence interval on the population mean that is currently learned in high school. We suggest 5 underlying concepts of 'discretion of contingency and inevitability', 'discretion of induction and deduction', 'likelihood principle', 'variability of a statistic' and 'statistical model', those are necessary to appreciate statistical inferences as a reliable arguing tools in spite of its occasional erroneous conclusions. We assume those 5 concepts above are to be gradually developing in their school periods and Korean mathematics textbooks of grades 1-12 were analyzed. Followings were found. For the right choice of solving methodology of the given problem, no elementary textbook but a few high school textbooks describe its difference between the contingent circumstance and the inevitable one. Formal definitions of population and sample are not introduced until high school grades, so that the developments of critical thoughts on the reliability of inductive reasoning could not be observed. On the contrary of it, strong emphasis lies on the calculation stuff of the sample data without any inference on the population prospective based upon the sample. Instead of the representative properties of a random sample, more emphasis lies on how to get a random sample. As a result of it, the fact that 'the random variability of the value of a statistic which is calculated from the sample ought to be inherited from the randomness of the sample' could neither be noticed nor be explained as well. No comparative descriptions on the statistical inferences against the mathematical(deductive) reasoning were found. Few explanations on the likelihood principle and its probabilistic applications in accordance with students' cognitive developmental growth were found. It was hard to find the explanation of a random variability of statistics and on the existence of its sampling distribution. It is worthwhile to explain it because, nevertheless obtaining the sampling distribution of a particular statistic, like a sample mean, is a very difficult job, mere noticing its existence may cause a drastic change of understanding in a statistical inference.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.63-87
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• 2004

To create and maintain comparative supremacy as a strategic tool of business, many organizations have introduced informational technology and system. By using this system, Some companies got a beneficial value for achieving organizational goals but others could not obtain their effectiveness and efficiency. In particular, a lot of organizations that tried to make strategic supremacy with e-commercial trade are under hard condition because of poor profit. It implies that it is essential to identify and analyse the consumer who uses e-commercial trade. This paper, therefore, focusing on internet shopping malls between business and consumer as one of areas of e-commercial trades, shows the difference between consumer expectation and performance. The results of this study are as follows: First, as for the significant difference of influencing factors to consumer satisfactions according to the types of internet shopping malls, there is a meaningful difference in consumer anxiety and internet usefulness, but not in consumer service. Prior to verify the differences in detail on consumer's anxiety and internet usefulness, we examined that there is any difference between expectation and performance. T-test was used for the variants of consumer anxiety and internet usefulness, and its meaningful probability was 0.000, which means that both showed statistically significant difference. Based on the results, we also found that regardless of the types of internet shopping malls, consumer expectation was greater than performance. although the difference between expectation and performance was not equal according to the internet shopping malls. Second, a regression analysis was performed to understand the relation between consumer service, internet usefulness, consumer anxiety, and consumer satisfaction, it was found that consumer service, internet usefulness, consumer anxiety had significantly effected on consumer satisfaction. Third, To verify the relation between consumer satisfaction and repurchase-intentions, intentions to spread out, Pearson correlation analysis was used. it was found that consumer satisfaction had positive effect on both intentions. This study has some limitations because of the shorts of money and time. since the sample of this study was consumers who have ever bought one or more products via internet shopping mall, this sample was appropriate. but the major parts of sample were college students, and the sample size was so small. therefore this results should carefully be generalized. For further study, it is required to select more precise samples and to include more variables.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.376-388
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• 1996

The first and the second "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation" was evaluated in this study. This contest was a part of 'Korean Youth Science Festival' held in 1993 and 1994. The evaluation was based on the data collected from the middle school students of final teams, their teachers, a large number of middle school students and college students who were audience of the final competition. Questionnaires, interviews, reports of final teams, and video tape of final competition were used to collect data. The study focussed on three research questions. The first was about the preparation and the research process of students of final teams. The second was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest. The third was whether participating the Contest was useful experience for the students and the teachers of the final teams. The first area, the preparation and the research process of students, were investigated in three aspects. One was the level of cooperation, participation, support and the role of teachers. The second was the information search and experiment, and the third was the report writing. The students of the final teams from both years, had positive opinion about the cooperation, students' active involvement, and support from family and school. Students considered their teachers to be a guide or a counsellor, showing their level of active participation. On the other hand, the interview of 1993 participants showed that there were times that teachers took strong leading role. Therefore one can conclude that students took active roles most of the time while the room for improvement still exists. To search the information they need during the period of the preparation, student visited various places such as libraries, bookstores, universities, and research institutes. Their search was not limited to reading the books, although the books were primary source of information. Students also learned how to organize the information they found and considered leaning of organizing skill useful and fun. Variety of experiments was an important part of preparation and students had positive opinion about it. Understanding related theory was considered most difficult and important, while designing and building proper equipments was considered difficult but not important. This reflects the students' school experience where the equipments were all set in advance and students were asked to confirm the theories presented in the previous class hours. About the reports recording the research process, students recognize the importance and the necessity of the report but had difficulty in writing it. Their reports showed tendency to list everything they did without clear connection to the problem to be solved. Most of the reports did not record the references and some of them confused report writing with story telling. Therefore most of them need training in writing the reports. It is also desirable to describe the process of student learning when theory or mathematics that are beyond the level of middle school curriculum were used because it is part of their investigation. The second area of evaluation was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest, the problems given to students, and the process of student discussion. The format of the Contests, which consisted of four parts, presentation, refutation, debate and review, received good evaluation from students because it made students think more and gave more difficult time but was meaningful and helped to remember longer time according to students. On the other hand, students said the time given to each part of the contest was too short. The problems given to students were short and open ended to stimulate students' imagination and to offer various possible routes to the solution. This type of problem was very unfamiliar and gave a lot of difficulty to students. Student had positive opinion about the research process they experienced but did not recognize the fact that such a process was possible because of the oneness of the task. The level of the problems was rated as too difficult by teachers and college students but as appropriate by the middle school students in audience and participating students. This suggests that it is possible for student to convert the problems to be challengeable and intellectually satisfactory appropriate for their level of understanding even when the problems were difficult for middle school students. During the process of student discussion, a few problems were observed. Some problems were related to the technics of the discussion, such as inappropriate behavior for the role he/she was taking, mismatching answers to the questions. Some problems were related to thinking. For example, students thinking was off balanced toward deductive reasoning, and reasoning based on experimental data was weak. The last area of evaluation was the effect of the Contest. It was measured through the change of the attitude toward science and science classes, and willingness to attend the next Contest. According to the result of the questionnaire, no meaningful change in attitude was observed. However, through the interview several students were observed to have significant positive change in attitude while no student with negative change was observed. Most of the students participated in Contest said they would participate again or recommend their friend to participate. Most of the teachers agreed that the Contest should continue and they would recommend their colleagues or students to participate. As described above, the "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation", which was developed and tried as a new science contest, had positive response from participating students and teachers, and the audience. Two among the list of results especially demonstrated that the goal of the Contest, "active and cooperative science learning experience", was reached. One is the fact that students recognized the experience of cooperation, discussion, information search, variety of experiments to be fun and valuable. The other is the fact that the students recognized the format of the contest consisting of presentation, refutation, discussion and review, required more thinking and was challenging, but was more meaningful. Despite a few problems such as, unfamiliarity with the technics of discussion, weakness in inductive and/or experiment based reasoning, and difficulty in report writing, The Contest demonstrated the possibility of new science learning environment and science contest by offering the chance to challenge open tasks by utilizing student science knowledge and ability to inquire and to discuss rationally and critically with other students.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.139-157
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• 2016

Bankruptcy involves considerable costs, so it can have significant effects on a country's economy. Thus, bankruptcy prediction is an important issue. Over the past several decades, many researchers have addressed topics associated with bankruptcy prediction. Early research on bankruptcy prediction employed conventional statistical methods such as univariate analysis, discriminant analysis, multiple regression, and logistic regression. Later on, many studies began utilizing artificial intelligence techniques such as inductive learning, neural networks, and case-based reasoning. Currently, ensemble models are being utilized to enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification involves combining multiple classifiers to obtain more accurate predictions than those obtained using individual models. Ensemble learning techniques are known to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Base classifiers in the ensemble must be as accurate and diverse as possible in order to enhance the generalization ability of an ensemble model. Commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers include bagging, boosting, and random subspace. The random subspace method selects a random feature subset for each classifier from the original feature space to diversify the base classifiers of an ensemble. Each ensemble member is trained by a randomly chosen feature subspace from the original feature set, and predictions from each ensemble member are combined by an aggregation method. The k-nearest neighbors (KNN) classifier is robust with respect to variations in the dataset but is very sensitive to changes in the feature space. For this reason, KNN is a good classifier for the random subspace method. The KNN random subspace ensemble model has been shown to be very effective for improving an individual KNN model. The k parameter of KNN base classifiers and selected feature subsets for base classifiers play an important role in determining the performance of the KNN ensemble model. However, few studies have focused on optimizing the k parameter and feature subsets of base classifiers in the ensemble. This study proposed a new ensemble method that improves upon the performance KNN ensemble model by optimizing both k parameters and feature subsets of base classifiers. A genetic algorithm was used to optimize the KNN ensemble model and improve the prediction accuracy of the ensemble model. The proposed model was applied to a bankruptcy prediction problem by using a real dataset from Korean companies. The research data included 1800 externally non-audited firms that filed for bankruptcy (900 cases) or non-bankruptcy (900 cases). Initially, the dataset consisted of 134 financial ratios. Prior to the experiments, 75 financial ratios were selected based on an independent sample t-test of each financial ratio as an input variable and bankruptcy or non-bankruptcy as an output variable. Of these, 24 financial ratios were selected by using a logistic regression backward feature selection method. The complete dataset was separated into two parts: training and validation. The training dataset was further divided into two portions: one for the training model and the other to avoid overfitting. The prediction accuracy against this dataset was used to determine the fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. The validation dataset was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the final model. A 10-fold cross-validation was implemented to compare the performances of the proposed model and other models. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the classification accuracy of the proposed model was compared with that of other models. The Q-statistic values and average classification accuracies of base classifiers were investigated. The experimental results showed that the proposed model outperformed other models, such as the single model and random subspace ensemble model.

• The Journal of Internal Korean Medicine
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.792-812
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• 2010

In the 18th century, Xu Lingtai (徐靈胎) and Yoshimasu Todo (吉益東洞) were famous doctors advocating ancient medicine, though they lived in different countries, China and Japan. We compared their major books, analyzed their academic thoughts and then took conclusions as below. 1. The first, for instance "Classified Prescriptions of Treatise on Cold Damage Diseases, 傷寒論類方" and "Classified Assemblage of Prescriptions, 類聚方". Based on essential thought that a prescription and a syndrome should correspond, these books arranged and classified the Zhang Zhongjing (張仲景)'s texts."Classified Prescriptions of Treatise on Cold Damage Diseases", based on the thought that principles, methods, formulas and medicinals (理法方藥) were integrated in prescriptions, tried to find out the implicit treatment rules in prescriptions and syndromes through analyzing "Treatise on Cold Damage Diseases, 傷寒論". On the other hand, because Classified Assemblage of Prescriptions focused on the syndromes of ancient prescriptions (古方), it classified and collected the related texts of Treatise on Cold Damage Diseases and "Synopsis of Prescriptions of the Golden Chamber, 금궤요략", and then suggested only simple instructions on how to prescribe medicine. So in this book, the trend of experience was clear. 2. The second, there is "100 Kinds Records from Shennong's Classic of Materia Medica, 神農本草經百種錄" and "Description work of herbal pharmacology comprised of excerpts from Shanhanlun and medical experiences, 藥徵". Though both of these books are professional oriental pharmacology publications that advocate reactionism, there were remarkable differences in writing style between them. "Description work of herbal pharmacology comprised of excerpts from Shanhanlun and medical experiences" was based on "Treat on Cold Damage Diseases" and "Synopsis of Prescriptions of the Golden Chamber", just explained the effects of medications and discussed 'matter of course (所當然)', but not discussed 'the reason why (所以然)'. In explaining style of syndromes, it confirmed through research, and emphasized the inductive method. On the other hand, "100 Kinds Records from Shennong's Classic of Materia Medica based on "Shennong's Classic of Materia Medica, 神農本草經", explained the nature of medications and discussed 'the reason why (所以然)'. In explaining style of syndromes, it annotated and explained, and emphasized the process of reasoning. 3. The third, there is "Discuss the Headwaters of Medicine, 醫學源流論" and Severance of Medical evils, 醫斷". Aiming the then medical theories fallen in confused state, these books brought order out of chaos, clarified the categories of medical research, and emphasized the scientific method that could put theories into practice and verify them. The difference is that "Severance of Medical Evils" researched only macroscopic viewable clinical phenomena, and even denied the existence of names of diseases and etiological causes. Thus, it emphasized the accumulation of experiences, laid emphasis on "watching and realizing (目認)", and "understand and taking in (解悟)". Discuss the Headwaters of Medicine extremely emphasized the research of 'something not occuring (未然)', that is to say, induced notions of a disease from observing clinical phenomena, furthermore based on these, predicted the 'something not occuring (未然)' and emphasized researching 'the reason why (所以然)'. As regards how they deal with the traditional theories and post-Zhang Zhongjing's medicines, "Severance of Medical evils" took completely denying attitudes. In case of "Discuss the Headwaters of Medicine", it could be used reasonably through specific situation and detailed analysis. Collectively speaking, there were some differences between medical theories of Xu Lingtai and Yoshimasu Todo. Actually, these differences were whether he tried to research the essence of disease, whether he tried to consider it rationally, and how he treated various opinions occurring in the theories of traditional medicine and clinical experience.