• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.149-158
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• 2009

Tsutsugamushi fever occupies more than 80% of total fall epidemic diseases and has an incubation period of 1 or 2 weeks as well. We have assumed that the incubation period distribution is gamma and therefore, reach an agreement that the infected distribution is normal with ${\hat{\mu}}=309.92$, ${\hat{\sigma}}=14.154$ by back calculation method. The infection cases are found severely large around the month of October. The infection case distribution demonstrates the incidence number increasing rapidly and progresses fast during the month of November. In this study, we have calculated the future prevalence number of maximum 1,200 people by inferred infection probability and incubation period distribution with some sort of limitation that the trend of increasing incidence number is not taking into an account. We considered the SIRS model which is also known as epidemic model, familiar to interaction between epidemiological classes. Our estimated parameters converged well with the initial parameter values.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.65-71
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• 2002

Objective : To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. Methods : Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods Results : The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were $708{\sim}1,426$ in Weibull distribution and $918{\sim}1,980$ in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was $16{\sim}25$ in Weibull distribution and $13{\sim}26$ in Gamma distribution. Conclusions : The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were $1.4{\sim}4.0$ times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea, further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.815-822
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• 2001

The aim of this study is to estimate the seroconversion date of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) infection for the HIV infected patients in Korea. Data are collected from two cohorts. The first cohort is a group of "seroprevalent" patients who were seropositive and AIDS-free at entry. The other is a group of "seroincident" patients who were initially seronegative but later converted to HIV antibody-positive. The seroconversion dates of the seroincident cohort are available while those of the seroprevalent cohort are not. Estimation of seroconversion date is important because it can be used to calculate the incubation period of AIDS which is defined as the elapsed time between the HIV infection and the development of AIDS. In this paper, a Weibull regression model Is fitted for the seroincident cohort using information about the elapsed time since seroconversion and the CD4$^{+}$ cell count.The seroconversion dates for the seroprevalent cohort are imputed on the basis of the marker of maturity of HIV infection percent of CD4$^{+}$cell count.unt.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.901-910
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• 2008

Incidence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in South Korea have been reemerged from mid-1990 and infected around 1600 patients annually recent years. The authors calculated the distribution of malaria infection and prevalence in South Korea using incidence (2001-2006) and incubation period distributions by a back-calculation formula and the least squares estimation method. The estimated infection has a normal distribution with a mean 207 and a standard deviation 30.7 days. In addition, the authors found the estimated daily average prevalence is 628.8 patients.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.777-789
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• 2020

COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.

• 전기의세계
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.167-171
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• 1981

In this paper, the mathematical model of influenza derived by the state space method induced a new model by using normal distribution curve of incubation period and researched the effect of vaccination. The important results are as follows. (1) A new model represents accurate spread curve. (2) The standard deviation period in Korea is about 1.5 degree. (3) The number of carries of influenza since put in practice to the vaccination 20% is reduced by average 9.8% degree, the period of spread increase 4 days degree. (4) The vaccination at early put in operation was far surperior and the period of spread grow longer more or less. (5) In the first stage of an attack of disease a case increase since reducing. (6) The number of carries at night is reduced by average 5.468% than in the daytime.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.213-222
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• 2017

Among flies inside mushroom growing rooms in three farms, Lycoriella ingenua and Megaselia tamilnaduensis were the most common and dominant species during Pleurotus ostreatus cultivation in Korea. In the past, generally, during the incubation period, a low density of mushroom flies was observed in all farms. After the first harvest, mushroom flies density tended to increase sharply. However, many mushroom flies were observed in the summer, despite that season corresponds to the incubation period. This is because annual cultivation systems provide a safe overwintering place compared to seasonal selective ones. The ecology of mushroom flies varies greatly according to the cultivation system. We confirmed that a fallow period reduced the density of mushroom flies. From a survey of the three dimensional distribution of mushroom flies in a growing room, we observed that M. tamilnaduensis showed more positive phototaxis and a higher variation per point of capture than that by L. ingenua. Through this study, two mushroom fly species were identified in the survey farms, with markedly different three dimensional distribution patterns.

• Journal of Radiation Industry
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.197-202
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• 2011

In this study, an Ag-polyaniline-silica (Ag-PANI-silica) nanoparticle was evaluated as a radioisotope carrier. An Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was incubated in the $^{125}I$ solution for a duration of 24 hr to test its radioisotope absorptivity. During the incubation, radioactivity of the nanoparticle was measured at 3, 6, 12, and 24 hr. After a 24 hr incubation, $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was incubated in a fresh saline for a duration of 48 hr to check its stability. Additionally, the $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was injected to the ICR mouse to investigate its in-vivo distribution characteristics. The $^{125}I$ absorption yield of the Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle was higher than 95% after a 6 hr incubation period in the $^{125}I$ solution. And $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica was stable for 48 hr at 80% yield at room temperature. The SPECT/CT image of a mouse that received $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica complex showed that the $^{125}I$-Ag-PANI-silica complex was distributed in the lung, stomach and thyroid at 30 min post injection. From these results, the Ag-PANI-silica nanoparticle has good radio-iodine carrying property and can be applicable for the purpose of diagnosis and therapy.

• Journal of the Korean institute of surface engineering
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.35-42
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• 2006

In this study, the fatigue properties on the cavitation damage of the flame quenched 8.8Al-bronze (8.8Al-4.5Ni-4.5Fe-Cu) as well as the current nuclear pump impeller materials (8.8Al-bronze, STS316 and SR50A) has been investigated using an ultrasonic vibratory cavitation test. For this the impact loads of cavitation bubbles generated by ultrasonic vibratory device quantitatively evaluated and simultaneously the cavitation erosion experiments have been carried out. The fatigue analysis on the cavitation damage of the materials has been made from the determined impact load distribution (e.g. impact load, bubble count) and erosion parameters (e.g. incubation period, MDPR). According to Miner's law, the determined exponents b of the F-N relation ($F^b$ N = Constant) at the incubation stage (N: the number of fracture cycle) were 5.62, 4.16, 6.25 and 8.1 for the 8.8Al-bronze, flame quenched one, STS316 and SR50A alloys. respectively. At the steady state period, the exponents b of the F-N' curve (N': the number of cycle required for $1{\mu}m$ increment of MDP) were determined as 6.32, 5, 7.14 and 7.76 for the 8.8Al-bronze, flame quenched one, STS316, and SR50A alloys, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Service
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.71-77
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• 2022

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal viral disease in pigs, with a short incubation period and causing immediate death. Few studies exist on the Asian epidemic ASF virus (ASFV) challenge in older pigs, including growing and fattening pigs and sows. We aimed to investigate clinical outcomes, pathomorphological lesions, and viral distribution in organs of 3-month-old growing pigs that were inoculated with the ASFV isolated in Vietnam. The clinical outcomes were recorded daily, and the dead or euthanized pigs immediately underwent necropsy. Viral loads were determined in 10 major organs using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The average incubation period in growing pigs was more delayed (5.2±0.9 dpi) than that in weaned pigs, and the clinical signs were milder in growing pigs than in weaned pigs. The digestive and respiratory clinical signs in growing pigs showed at the end period of life, but these were observed at an early stage of infection in weaned pigs. The pathomorphological features were severe and nonspecific with hemorrhagic lesions in various organs. The viral loads in organs from growing pigs were higher than those from piglets, and the number of viral copies was related to gross lesions in the tonsil and intestine. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, early clinical detection is important for preventing the spread of the virus. Our findings elucidated that the clinical signs and gross lesions in growing pigs differed from those in weaned pigs, which provide valuable information for diagnosis of pigs with suspected ASF infection.