• Title/Summary/Keyword: Income prediction

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Analysis of the Ripple Effect of the US Federal Reserve System's Quantitative Easing Policy on Stock Price Fluctuations (미국연방준비제도의 양적완화 정책이 주가 변동에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.161-166
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    • 2021
  • The macroeconomic concept represents the movement of a country's economy, and it affects the overall economic activities of business, government, and households. In the macroeconomy, by looking at changes in national income, inflation, unemployment, currency, interest rates, and raw materials, it is possible to understand the effects of economic actors' actions and interactions on the prices of products and services. The US Federal Reserve System (FED) is leading the world economy by offering various stimulus measures to overcome the corona economic recession. Although the stock price continued to decline on March 20, 2020 due to the current economic recession caused by the corona, the US S&P 500 index began rebounding after March 23 and to 3,694.62 as of December 15 due to quantitative easing, a powerful stimulus for the FED. Therefore, the FED's economic stimulus measures based on macroeconomic indicators are more influencing, rather than judging the stock price forecast from the corporate financial statements. Therefore, this study was conducted to reduce losses in stock investment and establish sound investment by analyzing the FED's economic stimulus measures and its effect on stock prices.

Pre-Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pediatric Acute Appendicitis: Risk Factors Model and Diagnosis Modality in a Developing Low-Income Country

  • Salim, Jonathan;Agustina, Flora;Maker, Julian Johozua Roberth
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.30-40
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Pediatric acute appendicitis has a stable incidence rate in Western countries with an annual change of -0.36%. However, a sharp increase was observed in the Asian region. The Indonesian Health Department reveals appendicitis as the fourth most infectious disease, with more than 64,000 patients annually. Hence, there is an urgent need to identify and evaluate the risk factors and diagnostic modalities for accurate diagnosis and early treatment. This study also clarifies the usage of pediatric appendicitis score (PAS) for children <5 years of age. Methods: The current study employed a cross-sectional design with purposive sampling through demographic and PAS questionnaires with ultrasound sonography (USG) results. The analysis was performed using the chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests and logistic regression. Results: This study included 21 qualified patients with an average age of 6.76±4.679 years, weighing 21.72±10.437 kg, and who had been hospitalized for 4.24±1.513 days in Siloam Teaching Hospital. Compared to the surgical gold standard, PAS and USG have moderate sensitivity and specificity. Bodyweight and stay duration were significant for appendicitis (p<0.05); however, all were confounders in the multivariate regression analysis. Incidentally, a risk prediction model was generated with an area under the curve of 72.73%, sensitivity of 100.0%, specificity of 54.5%, and a cut-off value of 151. Conclusion: PAS outperforms USG in the sensitivity of diagnosing appendicitis, whereas USG outperforms PAS in terms of specificity. This study demonstrates the use of PAS in children under 5 years old. Meanwhile, no risk factors were significant in multivariate pediatric acute appendicitis risk factors.

Prediction model of health-related quality of life in older adults according to gender using a decision tree model: a study based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (의사결정나무 분석을 이용한 한국 노인의 성별에 따른 건강관련 삶의 질 취약군 예측: 국민건강영양조사 자료 분석)

  • Hee Sun Kim;Seok Hee Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Biological Nursing Science
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.26-40
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to predict the subgroups vulnerable to poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) according to gender in older adults. Methods: Data from 5,553 Koreans aged 65 or older were extracted from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. HRQoL was assessed using the EQ-5D tool. Complex sample analysis and decision-tree analysis were conducted using SPSS for Windows version 27.0. Results: The mean scores of the EQ-5D index were 0.93 ± 0.00 in men and 0.88 ± 0.00 in women. In men, poorer HRQoL groups were identified with seven different pathways, which were categorized based on participants' characteristics, such as restriction of activity, perceived health status, muscle exercise, age, relative hand grip strength, suicidal ideation, the number of chronic diseases, body mass index, and income status. Restriction of activity was the most significant predictor of poorer HRQoL in elderly men. In women, the poorer HRQoL groups were identified with nine different pathways, which were categorized based on participants' characteristics, such as perceived health status, restriction of activity, age, education, unmet medical service needs, anemia, body mass index, relative hand grip, and aerobic exercise. Perceived health status was the most significant predictor of poorer HRQoL in elderly women. Conclusion: This study presents a predictive model of HRQoL in older adults according to gender and can be used to detect individuals at risk of poorer HRQoL.

Deep Learning-Based Daily Baseball Attendance Predcition (딥러닝 기반 일별 야구 관중 수 예측)

  • Hyunhee Lee;Seoyoung Sohn;Minseo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.131-135
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    • 2024
  • Baseball attracts the largest audience among professional sports in Korea. In particular, attendance is the primary source of income in baseball. Previous studies have limitations in reflecting the characteristics of individual stadium. For instance, the KIA Tigers exhibit the highest away game revenue among domestic teams, but they show lower home game earnings. Therefore, we aim to predict the daily attendance at the Gwangju-KIA Champions Field of the KIA Tigers using deep learning. We collected and preprocessed daily attendance, dates, weather, and team-related variables for Gwangju-KIA Champions Field from 2018 to 2023. We propose a deep learning-based linear regression model to predict the daily attendance. We expect that the proposed deep learning model will be used as basic information to increase the club's revenue.

Clickstream Big Data Mining for Demographics based Digital Marketing (인구통계특성 기반 디지털 마케팅을 위한 클릭스트림 빅데이터 마이닝)

  • Park, Jiae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.143-163
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    • 2016
  • The demographics of Internet users are the most basic and important sources for target marketing or personalized advertisements on the digital marketing channels which include email, mobile, and social media. However, it gradually has become difficult to collect the demographics of Internet users because their activities are anonymous in many cases. Although the marketing department is able to get the demographics using online or offline surveys, these approaches are very expensive, long processes, and likely to include false statements. Clickstream data is the recording an Internet user leaves behind while visiting websites. As the user clicks anywhere in the webpage, the activity is logged in semi-structured website log files. Such data allows us to see what pages users visited, how long they stayed there, how often they visited, when they usually visited, which site they prefer, what keywords they used to find the site, whether they purchased any, and so forth. For such a reason, some researchers tried to guess the demographics of Internet users by using their clickstream data. They derived various independent variables likely to be correlated to the demographics. The variables include search keyword, frequency and intensity for time, day and month, variety of websites visited, text information for web pages visited, etc. The demographic attributes to predict are also diverse according to the paper, and cover gender, age, job, location, income, education, marital status, presence of children. A variety of data mining methods, such as LSA, SVM, decision tree, neural network, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbors, were used for prediction model building. However, this research has not yet identified which data mining method is appropriate to predict each demographic variable. Moreover, it is required to review independent variables studied so far and combine them as needed, and evaluate them for building the best prediction model. The objective of this study is to choose clickstream attributes mostly likely to be correlated to the demographics from the results of previous research, and then to identify which data mining method is fitting to predict each demographic attribute. Among the demographic attributes, this paper focus on predicting gender, age, marital status, residence, and job. And from the results of previous research, 64 clickstream attributes are applied to predict the demographic attributes. The overall process of predictive model building is compose of 4 steps. In the first step, we create user profiles which include 64 clickstream attributes and 5 demographic attributes. The second step performs the dimension reduction of clickstream variables to solve the curse of dimensionality and overfitting problem. We utilize three approaches which are based on decision tree, PCA, and cluster analysis. We build alternative predictive models for each demographic variable in the third step. SVM, neural network, and logistic regression are used for modeling. The last step evaluates the alternative models in view of model accuracy and selects the best model. For the experiments, we used clickstream data which represents 5 demographics and 16,962,705 online activities for 5,000 Internet users. IBM SPSS Modeler 17.0 was used for our prediction process, and the 5-fold cross validation was conducted to enhance the reliability of our experiments. As the experimental results, we can verify that there are a specific data mining method well-suited for each demographic variable. For example, age prediction is best performed when using the decision tree based dimension reduction and neural network whereas the prediction of gender and marital status is the most accurate by applying SVM without dimension reduction. We conclude that the online behaviors of the Internet users, captured from the clickstream data analysis, could be well used to predict their demographics, thereby being utilized to the digital marketing.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Analysis of the Correlation of Job Satisfaction to Turnover Among Dental Hygienists in the Region of J (J지역 치과위생사의 직무만족과 이직의 상관관계 분석)

  • Ju, On-Ju;Kim, Kyeong-Seon;Lee, Hyun-Ok
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.251-256
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to examine what induced dental hygienists to take up another employment and whether their job satisfaction had anything to do with it in an attempt to help curtail their turnover rate. The subjects in this study were approximately 200 dental hygienists who worked in dental institutions. A survey was conducted from July 24 through September 24, 2006, by using structured, self-administered questionnaires. For data analysis, SPSS 11.5 program was employed to see if their turnover experience was linked to their general characteristics, why they took up another employment, how long they wanted to do that and how their job satisfaction was related to that. The findings of the study were as follows: 1. In regard to turnover experience by age, marital status and career, those who had ever changed their employment accounted for 36.2 percent of the age group from 24 to 26, 83.0 percent of the unmarried ones and 50.0 percent of those whose career was less than one to three years (p < 0.001). By monthly mean income, 50.0 percent of the dental hygienists whose monthly mean income ranged from 1.0 to 1.29 million won had that experience(p < 0.05). The gap between these groups and the others was statistically significant. 2. As for the reason of turnover, working environments were cited most often(28.1%), followed by possibilities(18.0%), relationship with supervisors and colleagues(12.4%), and compensation(4.5%). 3. Concerning a preferred new workplace, 66.2 percent of the dental hygienists who worked in dentist's offices hoped to be newly hired by public dental clinics(p < 0.001). By education, 64.3 percent of the college-educated dental hygienists wanted to work at public dental clinics as well(p < 0.01). 4. The change of employment was under the greatest influence of the possibilities of workplace, followed by workload, pay and relationship with colleagues. All the factors had a negative impact on their turnover. Those who were less satisfied sought new employment more often, and job satisfaction made a statistically significant difference to that. The job satisfaction factors made a prediction of their turnover intention ($R^2=.254$).

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The Impact of Milk Production Level on Profit Traits of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 생산수준이 젖소의 수익형질에 미치는 효과)

  • Do, Changhee;Park, Suhun;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Yunho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Byungho;Yun, Hobaek;Lee, Donghee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.343-349
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    • 2013
  • Data including 1,372,050 milk records pertaining to 438,019 cows from 1983 to 2011 collected during performance tests conducted by the National Livestock Cooperative Dairy Improvement Center were used to calculate milk income and profit of individuals and investigate the effects of production levels of early lactation (parity 1 and 2, respectively). Individuals with a moderate level of early lactation stayed longer in herds. Among parity 1, the 9,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactations than the overall mean of 3.13. The 7,000 kg or lower and 10,000 kg or higher groups had lower mean life time milking days than the overall mean of 1,076.8 days. Standard deviations of lifetime traits tended to decrease as production levels increased. For parity 2, the 11,000 kg or higher group had a lower mean number of lactation than the overall mean of 3.43. The lifetime milking days was highest in the 12,000 kg group (1,212.0 days), and generally smaller in the lower groups. Profit increased as the production level of groups increased for both parity 1 and 2. In groups with low production levels, profit of parity 1 was higher than that of parity 2, while the reverse was true in groups with high production levels. These results suggest that individuals in the low production groups had a greater likelihood to be culled due to reproductive or other problems. Furthermore, the accuracy of the prediction of lifetime profit of individuals with a milk yield of 305 days seems to be higher for parity 2 than parity 1; therefore, it is desirable to predict lifetime profit using the 305d milk yield of parity 2. In conclusion, breeding goals are based on many factors in functions for the estimation of profit; however, production levels during early lactation (parity 1 and 2) can be used as indicators of profit to extend profitability.

Effect of Socio-demographic Factors on Sensory Properties for Hanwoo Steer Beef with 1++ Quality Grade by Different Cut and Cooking Methods (사회인구학적 요인이 1++ 등급 거세한우고기의 부위 및 요리형태별 관능특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Jin-Hyoung;Seong, Pil-Nam;Park, Beom-Young;Kim, Kyung-Eui;Ko, Yoon-Sil;Lee, Jong-Moon;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.363-372
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between the socio-demographic factors and the Korean consumers' palatability evaluation and to collect the sensory information for development of prediction palatability model of Hanwoo beef. Ten cuts [Abjin (short plate), Bosup (top sirloin), Cheggt (striploin), Dngsim (loin), Guri (chuck tender), Hongduke (eye of round), Moksim (chuck roll), Sulgit (bottom round), Udoon (top round), Yangji (brisket)] were separated from 5 Hanwoo steer beef (28-30 months old) and prepared with the same manner for 3 different cooking methods such as boiling, grilling, and roasting. The cooked beef samples were served to 650 consumers recruited from Seoul, Joongbu, Honam and Youngnam locations and evaluated as tenderness, juiciness, flavor, and overall acceptability. The consumer living location, age, gender, occupation, monthly income, and cut were significantly related with the scores of sensory properties when steer beef were cooked as boiling cooking (p<0.05). The eating habit and aging of beef were also significantly related with the tenderness and overall acceptability scores (p<0.01) when beef were cooked as boiled. In grill cooking, living location, aging, and cut had the significant effect on the sensory properties of Hanwoo steer beef (p<0.01). When steer beef were prepared by Korean traditional roast cooking, consumer's sensory scores were significantly different by the living location, age, occupation, monthly income, eating habit of consumers, aging and beef cut (p<0.001). Also, results from the principal component analysis showed that palatability scores of Korean consumers were decided with different contribution rate of tenderness, juiciness, flavor and overall acceptability for beef cut depending on cooking methods. In conclusion, Korean consumers' palatability for Hanwoo steer beef were related to the socio-demographic factors and the sensory scores were different by cut and cooking methods.

Effect of Socio-demographic Factors on Sensory Properties of Korean Hanwoo Bull Beef by Different Cut and Cooking Methods (사회인구학적 요인이 한우수소고기의 부위 및 요리형태별 관능특성에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Hyoung;Kim, Jae-Hee;Seong, Pil-Nam;Park, Beom-Young;Kim, Kyung-Eui;Seo, Gu-Reo-Un-Dal-Nim;Lee, Jong-Moon;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.857-870
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted to investigate the relationship between the socio-demographic factors and the Korean consumers’ palatability evaluation and to collect the sensory information for development of prediction palatability model of Hanwoo beef. Ten cuts〔Abjin (short plate), Bosup (top sirloin), Cheggt (striploin), Dngsim (loin), Guri (chuck tender), Hongduke (eye of round), Moksim (chuck roll), Sulgit (bottom round), Udoon (top round), Yangi (brisket)〕 were separated from 10 Hanwoo bulls beef(~24 months old) and prepared with the same manner for 3 different cooking methods such as boiling, grilling and roasting. The cooked beef samples were served to 650 consumers recruited from Seoul, Joongbu, Honam and Youngnam locations and evaluated tenderness, juiciness, flavor and overall acceptability. The living location, age, gender, occupation, eating habit and cut were significantly related with the sensory properties when bull beef were cooked as boiled cooking(p<0.05). In grill cooking, only occupation, income and cut had the significant effect on the overall acceptability of Hanwoo bull beef(p<0.01). When bull beef were cooked as Korean traditional roast cooking, consumer’s sensory properties were significantly different by the living location, age, occupation, income, eating habit of consumers and cut(p<0.05). Also, results from the principal component analysis showed that palatability scores of Korean consumers were decided with different contribution scores of tenderness, juiciness, flavor and overall acceptability of cut depending on cooking methods. In conclusion, Korean consumers’ palatability for Hanwoo bull beef were related with the socio-demographic factors and the sensory results were different by cut and cooking methods.