• 무역학회지
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.83-111
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• 2021

This paper conducts a Structural Dcomposition Analysis on the structure of factors contributing to the output growth of Korean Maritime and Port Industry during year 2000~ year 2017. Some of results are as follows. The output growth rates of the industry (yearly average 4.3%) was far lower than the average growth rates of Service as well as of Manufacturing Industries (yearly average 9% and 6.8%, respectively) due to the lower output growth of Maritime Industry. Among the growth contributing factors, change in domestic demand for final goods is the first contributing factor, and then change in technology, change in export and import substitution for intermediate goods are followed in order, but import substitution for final goods decreased its output. However, in each respective sub-periods of pre-global financial crisis and post-global financial crisis, change in the export, especially change in the export of Maritime Industry is the dominant determinant of output change in the Maritime and Port Industry in opposite ways. In the periods of the former the increase in the export of Maritime Industry overwhelmingly led the output growth of the Maritime and Port industry, but in the periods of the latter the decrease in its export was the culprit of lower output growth of the industry. On the other hand, among all industries of service and manufacturing sectors, Wholesale and Retail industry is the leading industry in contributing to the output growth of the Maritime and Port Industry, and Transportation Equipment industry is the leading industry among all manufacturing industries.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제12권11호
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• pp.134-144
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• 2023

Nowadays, Deep Learning (DL) technology is being used in several government departments. South Korea imports a lot of seafood. If the demand for fishery products is not accurately predicted, then there will be a shortage of fishery products and the price of the fishery product may rise sharply. So, South Korea's Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries is attempting to accurately predict seafood imports using deep learning. This paper introduces the solution for the fish import prediction in South Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. It was found that there was a huge gap between the sum of consumption and export against the sum of production especially in the case of two species that are Hairtail and Pollock. An import prediction is suggested in this research to fill the gap with some advanced Deep Learning methods. This research focuses on import prediction using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning methods to predict the import amount more precisely. For the prediction, two Deep Learning methods were chosen which are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Moreover, the Machine Learning method was also selected for the comparison between the DL and ML. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for the error measurement which shows the difference between the predicted and actual values. The results obtained were compared with the average RMSE scores and in terms of percentage. It was found that the LSTM has the lowest RMSE score which showed the prediction with higher accuracy. Meanwhile, ML's RMSE score was higher which shows lower accuracy in prediction. Moreover, Google Trend Search data was used as a new feature to find its impact on prediction outcomes. It was found that it had a positive impact on results as the RMSE values were lowered, increasing the accuracy of the prediction.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제54권2호
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• pp.31-44
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• 2023

This study examines the demand system of shrimp imported from top four countries and domestically produced by using AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) model. Top four import countries are Vietnam, Ecuador, China, and Malaysia based on the value of imports in 2021. As results of the analysis, the demand system of shrimp turn out to be below. First, the relationship of domestic shrimp and imported shrimp (Ecuadorian and Vietnamese) is identified as complements or substitutes depending on whether the income effect is considered. This result implies that imported shrimp supplements domestic supply against excess demand while homogeneous shrimp products competes with domestic shrimp in fish market. Second, the relationship among imported shrimps turned out to be both substitutes and complements. Especially, the Vietnamese shrimp is complementary with Chinese and Malaysian shrimp, but substitutes of Ecuadorian. It is assumed that adjoining Asian countries shares similar shrimp species and processing system which differentiates from Ecuadorian. Finally, the study included quarter as dummy variable and GDP as instrumental variable of expenditure in the model. The result confirmed that domestic shrimp is highly on demand during the main production season while imported shrimp is mainly demanded during the rest of the season.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.214-223
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• 2022

본 연구의 목적은 외부경제요인을 고려할 수 있는 새로운 산업용지 수요예측 방법을 제시하는 것이다. 분석모형은 외생변수를 고려할 수 있는 ARIMA-X를 이용하였다. 외생변수는 경제 및 산업구조를 반영할 수 있도록 거시경제, 제조업 경기실사지수 및 경기종합지수 변수들로 구성된다. 그리고 예측은 외생변수 중 산업용지 공급보다 선행하는 변수만을 사용한다. 산업용지 공급에 선행성을 갖는 변수는 수입액, 민간·정부소비지출, 총자본형성, 경제심리지수, 기계류내수출하지수, 경기종합선행지수로 나타났다. 이들 변수를 이용하여 ARIMA-X 모형을 추정한 결과, 수입액 변수만 포함된 ARIMA-X(1,1,0) 모형이 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 산업용지 수요예측은 수입액의 변화 시나리오를 반영하여 2021년부터 2030년까지의 산업용지를 예측하였다. 그 결과, 장래 산업용지 수요는 연평균 1.91% 증가한 1,030.79 km²로 예측되었다. 이 결과를 기존 지수평활법과 비교한 결과, 본 연구의 결과가 기존 모형보다 예측오차가 더 적게 나타났다. 새로운 산업용지 예측모형으로 사용가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제65권
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• pp.141-160
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• 2015

With the steady growth of our nation's economy, the purchase power of our domestic citizens has continuously enhanced. In recent years, online overseas shopping has rapidly warmed up, increasing number of Chinese people have started to purchase overseas products via internet. According to China's current legislation, the imported goods are divided into goods and items based on "profitability standard", and regulated by different rules of clearance supervision and import duties. Goods can't pass through custom and pay duties in the form of items, and the import duties burden of goods is generally much heavier than that of items. Goods of entrusted overseas shopping pass through custom and pay duties in the form of items, but goods of profitable purchasing are goods, not items. Therefore, the profitable-purchasing behavior is smuggling. Although goods of unprofitable purchasing are items, unprofitable-purchasing behavior may also constitute smuggling. The author concludes that causes of smuggling crime are: huge market demand for overseas goods, lack of customs supervision, law blank of petty foreign trade, and public's misconception of entrusted overseas purchasing are the major factors. The author proposes the corresponding preventive measures against the crime, such as to establish an one-stop service system in online Shopping Mall, to modify the Passengers' Baggage Declaration Form, to establish a relatively simplified clearance system of small cargo, to establish a relatively reasonable import duties of petty trade.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.141-160
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• 2005

This paper estimate and analyze the economic effect of the port industries as well its production inducement coefficient, effect ratio and response ratio using above-mention input-output analysis. The results of analysis is that the production inducement effects and the forward and backward linkage effects of port industries sectors are evaluated low evaluations. This results is not the port industry doesn't have low effects and low contributions to Korea economy, port industries are more used in the field of export and import sectors than domestic demand and supply sectors. Accordingly, the import inducement coefficients of shipping industry is most high among the 404 detailed sectors.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.459-474
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• 2008

Under violent competition to secure international raw materials, safe supply and demand of crude oil that only relies on import among main raw materials is an important task for Korean economic development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of price change of international crude oil on merchandise balance. It also presents political suggestions in preparation for national economic development and safety and develops an organized and long-term overseas resources development program. As the time-series data which had the 1st difference contribute to dismissal of the null hypothesis successfully, we carry out a multivariate cointegration test developed by Johansen (1988) and find that at least one cointegration vector exists. And, when Impulse Response Function is introduced, as the crude oil import price shows a negative impact from Step 2, then an extreme change, a positive impact since Step 13, is maintained and a safe result appears.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.389-416
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• 2020

This paper provides empirical evidence on the reorganization of GVCs in East Asia, highlighting that structural trends explain a decrease in the fragmentation of production after 2011 but that it is not the result of rising trade costs along the value chain. Using harmonized inter-country input-output tables, the paper first analyzes the global import intensity of production to document changes in the structure of GVCs. It then calculates theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for intermediate and final products using an approach derived from the gravity literature and introduces a new index of cumulative trade costs along the value chain. These data are used to discuss whether the decrease in global imports is the consequence of shifts in demand, efficiency-enhancing strategies of firms or rising trade costs. Between 2011 and 2016, cumulative trade costs have decreased in East Asian GVCs. However, as COVID-19 is likely to intensify trade and investment uncertainties, trade costs could increase in the future. Policies aimed at reducing uncertainties and preserving the gains from trade and investment liberalization will be key in this new environment.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.46-51
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• 2002

A grinding technology is very essential to finish the surface of IT and BT industrial application parts such as wafer, optical connection part and lenses etc. However the finding machine has bead depended on imports. Especially, it is completely imported for machining high precision part relevant to domestic electric and communicational industries. The amount to import grinding machine is about $110milions. It takes about 35% of total import amount of all the machine tools. A domestic finder manufacturer is a very small-scaled bussinessman and research facilities is poor. Recently, it is increasing to demand high speed and precision grinding technology because it brings cost down and value added up. Its further study will be something related to inteligent grinding system fur value added and high precision part. It will make domestic grinding technology to its advanced country level.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.715-744
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• 2009

본 연구는 세계무역기구의 비농산물시장접근(NAMA)협상에 따른 관세감축이 한국에 미치는 영향 중 국내 수산물 수입증가변화를 중심으로 분석하였다. NAMA 협상의 스위스공식을 기준으로 네 가지 관세감축 시나리오 분석이 이루어졌으며, 수입수요함수를 통하여 가격탄력성을 추정하였다. 선진국 계수와 개발도상국 계수를 이용한 수입수산물 품목에 대한 시나리오별 파급영향 분석에서 mark up 20%를 감안할 때, 선진국계수에 신축성을 적용하지 않는 경우에는 약 4,392억 원~4,045억 원이, 신축성을 적용(해당 계수 50% 감축률 적용시)할 경우에는 약 2,542억 원~2,318억 원 규모의 수입증가액이 발생하는 것으로 추정되었다. 한편, 개도국 계수에 신축성을 미적용하는 것으로 가정할 경우에는 약 3,556억 원~3,111억 원이, 신축성을 감안할 경우에는 약 2,010억 원~1,735억 원 정도의 수입증가액이 늘어나는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 수입품목 중 가장 수입증가액이 큰 품목은 명태로 나타났다.