• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact Simulation

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Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Management Strategies between Best Supportive Care and Second-line Chemotherapy for Platinum-resistant or Refractory Ovarian Cancer

  • Luealon, Phanida;Khempech, Nipon;Vasuratna, Apichai;Hanvoravongchai, Piya;Havanond, Piyalamporn
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.799-805
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    • 2016
  • Background: There is no standard treatment for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Single agent chemotherapies have evidence of more efficacy and less toxicity than combination therapy. Most are very expensive, with appreciable toxicity and minimal survival. Since it is difficult to make comparison between outcomes, economic analysis of single-agent chemotherapy regimens and best supportive care may help to make decisions about an appropriate management for the affected patients. Objective: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of second-line chemotherapy compared with best supportive care for patients with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Materials and Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the effectiveness and total costs associated with treatments. The hypothetical patient population comprised women aged 55 with platinum-resistant or refractory epithelial ovarian cancer. Four types of alternative treatment options were evaluated: 1) gemcitabine followed by BSC; 2) pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) followed by BSC; 3) gemcitabine followed by topotecan; and 4) PLD followed by topotecan. Baseline comparator of alternative treatments was BSC. Time horizon of the analysis was 2 years. Health care provider perspective and 3% discount rate were used to determine the costs of medical treatment in this study. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) were used to measure the treatment effectiveness. Treatment effectiveness data were derived from the literature. Costs were calculated from unit cost treatment of epithelial ovarian cancer patients at various stages of disease in King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in the year 2011. Parameter uncertainty was tested in probabilistic sensitivity analysis by using Monte Carlo simulation. One-way sensitivity analysis was used to explore each variable's impact on the uncertainty of the results. Results: Approximated life expectancy of best supportive care was 0.182 years and its total cost was 26,862 Baht. All four alternative treatments increased life expectancy. Life expectancy of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 0.510, 0.513, 0.566, and 0.570 years, respectively. The total cost of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 113,000, 124,302, 139,788 and 151,135 Baht, respectively. PLD followed by topotecan had the highest expected quality-adjusted life-years but was the most expensive of all the above strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of gemcitabine followed by BSC, PLD followed by BSC, gemcitabine followed by topotecan and PLD followed by topotecan was 344,643, 385,322, 385,856, and 420,299 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: All of the second-line chemotherapy strategies showed certain benefits due to an increased life-year gained compared with best supportive care. Moreover, gemcitabine as second-line chemotherapy followed by best supportive care in progressive disease case was likely to be more effective strategy with less cost from health care provider perspective. Gemcitabine was the most cost-effective treatment among all four alternative treatments. ICER is only an economic factor. Treatment decisions should be based on the patient benefit.

Domestic Ozone Sensitivity to Chinese Emissions Inventories: A Comparison between MICS-Asia 2010 and INTEX-B 2006 (중국 배출량 목록에 대한 국내 오존 민감도 분석: MICS-Asia 2010와 INTEX-B 2006 비교사례)

  • Kim, Soontae;Bae, Changhan;Kim, Eunhye;You, Seunghee;Bae, Minah;Lee, Jae-bum;Seo, Inseok;Lim, Yongjae;Kim, Byeong-Uk;Kim, Hyun Cheol;Woo, Jung-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.480-496
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    • 2017
  • CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality)-HDDM (High-order Direct Decoupled Method) simulations with MICS-Asia 2010 and INTEX-B 2006 emissions inventories were performed to investigate the impact of Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions on 1-hr ozone concentrations over South Korea during May to July in 2014. Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions in MICS-Asia 2010 were 60% higher and 100% lower than those in INTEX-B 2006 during the simulation period. It makes the ratio of Chinese VOC to $NO_x$ emissions in INTEX-B 2006 (Case 1) is 3.2 times higher than that in MICS-Asia 2010 (Case 2). When the observed period mean 1-hr ozone concentration averaged across 106 air monitoring sites in the SMA (Seoul Metropolitan Area) was 37.6 ppb, the modeled values were similar to each other; 37.3 ppb for Case 1, and 40.4 ppb for Case 2. Both cases show that daily maximum 1-hr ZOC (Zero-Out Contribution) of Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions were as high as 55 ppb and 35 ppb for the episode respectively. Correlation coefficients between ZOC of Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions and the SMA daily maximum 1-hr ozone were 0.49~0.69. It indicates that Chinese emissions occasionally affect the SMA daily ozone peaks. On the other hand, Case 2 predicted 7 ppb and 1 ppb higher ZOC of Chinese $NO_x$ and VOC emissions than Case 1, when simulated ozone in the SMA is over 80 ppb. It implies that upwind $NO_x$ emissions would be more important than upwind VOC emissions for the long-range transport of ozone in Northeast Asia.

Process Design of Trimming to Improve the Sheared-Edge of the Vehicle Door Latch based on the FE Simulation and the Taguchi Method (유한요소해석 및 다구찌법을 이용한 자동차 도어 래치의 전단면 품질 향상을 위한 트리밍 공정 설계)

  • Lee, Jung-Hyun;Lee, Kyung-Hun;Lee, Seon-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.483-490
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    • 2016
  • Automobile door latch is a fine design and assembly techniques are required in order to produce them in a small component assembly shape such as a spring, injection products, a small-sized motor. The door latch is fixed to not open the door of the car plays an important role it has a direct impact on the driver's safety. In this study, during trimming of the terminals of the connector main components of the car door latch, reduce rollover and conducted a research to find a suitable effective shear surface. Using the Taguchi method with orthogonal array of Finite Element Analysis and optimal Design of Experiments were set up parameters for the shear surface quality of the car door latch connector terminals. The design parameters used in the analysis is the clearance, the radius, and the blank holding force, the material of the connector terminal is a C2600. Trimming process optimum conditions suggested by the analysis has been verified by experiments, the shear surface shape and dimensions of a final product in good agreement with forming analysis results.Taguchi method from the above results in the optimization for the final rollover and effective shear surface improved for a vehicle door latch to the connector terminal can be seen that the applicable and useful for a variety of metal forming processes other than the trimming process is determined to be applicable.

A Study on The Performance Verification and Economic Evaluation of ESS for Frequency Regulation Application (주파수조정용 ESS의 성능검증 및 경제성평가 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Gang;Choi, Sung-Sik;Kang, Min-Kwan;Rho, Dae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.738-744
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    • 2017
  • Recently, the installation of energy storage systems (ESSs) has increased in parallel with the extension of renewable energy resources. However, there has been no concrete analysis ofthe performance verification and economic evaluation of ESSs,which makes it difficult to perform aneffective installation and operation of an ESS. In particular, there are no international technical standards and guidelines on electric ESS for frequency regulation applications. Therefore, acomprehensive study on the power quality, impact on grid, extent of contribution, and cost benefit study of ESS are strongly being required. Under these backgrounds, this paper proposes a performance verification algorithm on ESS for frequency regulation application based on ananalysis of the AGC(Automatic Generation Control) performance verification method of PJM in USA. In addition,this paper proposes an economic evaluation algorithm on a 500 MW installation of ESS for frequency regulation applications using the account settlement of an expensive gas-fired generation plant and coal-fired power generation plant. From the simulation with real ESS operation data and 500 MW installation case, it wasconfirmed that the ESS showssuperior performance toany other conventional generators and provides anannual benefit of 500 MW ESS are between 345~429 billon won.

Analysis of Hygrothermal Performance for Standard Wood-frame Structures in Korea (국내 농어촌 표준 목조주택의 hygrothermal 성능 분석)

  • Chang, Seong Jin;Kang, Yujin;Wi, Seunghwan;Jeong, Su-Gwang;Kim, Sumin
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.440-448
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    • 2016
  • As recent buildings become more air tight, the natural ventilation rate is significantly reduced and it leads to difficulty in removing accumulated moisture in buildings. Hot and humid weather in summer and the large amount of moisture caused by indoor activity are the major factors of moisture problem in Korea. The hygrothermal behavior of building environment has to be considered carefully to reduce condensation risk and mold growth potential, and comfortable indoor environment. In this study, we evaluated hygrothermal behavior of Standard Wood-frame Structure published in the Korea Rural Community Corporation Using WUFI simulation program. The results indicated that the total water contents of wood wall measured in 2014 was lower than wood wall in 2010. As a result of evaluation by separating the farming and fishing areas, Moisture problems in fishing area became larger. The walls had a significant impact on the relative humidity than the temperature each areas. Furthermore, excessive water content problem of the wood-based material was reduced in the wall that could be applied in the fishing villages by changing the outdoor finishing materials. And Mold growth risk on the interior materials could be removed through the different setting of the indoor temperature during summertime.

TITAN2D Simulations of Pyroclastic Flows from Small Scale Eruption at Mt. Baekdusan (백두산에서 소규모 분화로 발생 가능한 화쇄류에 대한 TITAN2D 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Yun, Sung-Hyo;Lee, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Sunkyeong;Chang, Cheolwoo;Cho, Eunil;Yang, Innsook;Kim, Yunjeong;Kim, Sanghyun;Lee, Kilha;Kim, Seongwook;Macedonio, Giovanni
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.34 no.7
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    • pp.615-625
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    • 2013
  • Many eruptions of Mt. Baekdusan volcano have been recorded in the historical literatures, and there were unrest precursors in 2002. Based on the geological survey results, it has been recognized that Mt. Baekdusan's Plinian eruptions had caused ashfall, followed by the occurrence of pyroclastic flows, which were caused by the collapse of eruption column. Therefore, we simulated the range of the impacts of pyroclastic flows, which were caused by small eruptions from a specific crater. Based on the simulation results, it can be interpreted that, when the pyroclastic flows are caused by the eruption column collapse from an eruption with less than VEI 3, the impacts will range from the outer rim of the caldera to the mountain slope 7 km at the maximum distance. Furthermore, it is interpreted that, when the eruption column occurs by the crater located inside the caldera, most will be deposited inside the caldera and what overflows will be deposited thickly mostly in the north valley, the upper stream region of Erdaobaihe.

Damage Evaluation of Bi-directionally Prestressed Concrete Panels under Blast-fire Combined Loading (폭발 후 화재하중 시나리오에 따른 2방향 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 패널부재의 손상도 평가)

  • Choi, Ji-Hun;Choi, Seung-Jai;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.237-248
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    • 2017
  • Frequent terror or military attack by explosion, impact, fire accidents have occurred recently. These attacks and incidents raised public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on important infrastructures. However, structural behavioral researches on prestressed concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCV) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking at this time. Also, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror and bomb explosion has not been performed yet. Therefore, a study on PSC structural behavior from an blast-induced fire scenario was undertaken. To evaluate the blast-fire combined resistance capacity and its protective performance of bi-directional unbonded PSC member, blast-fire tests were carried out on $1,400mm{\times}1,000mm{\times}300mm$ PSC specimens. Blast loading tests were performed by the detonation of 25 kg ANFO explosive charge at 1.0 m standoff distance. Also, fire and blast-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The test results are discussed in detail in the paper. The results can be used as basic research references for related research areas, which include protective design simulation under blast-fire combined loading.

A Study on Design of 2.45GHz and GPS antenna Integrated Board using Container security Device(ConTracer) (컨테이너 보안 장치(ConTracer)에 활용되는 2.45GHz 및 GPS 안테나 통합 보드 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Kyu;Moon, Young-Sik;Shin, Joong-Jo;Shon, Jung-Rock;Choi, Sung-Pill;Kim, Jae-Joong;Choi, Hyung-Rim
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.502-505
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, A Design of 2.45GHz and GPS antenna Integrated Board using Container security Device(ConTracer) for container cargo transportation is proposed and experimentally evaluate. Integrated antenna board include 2.4GHz chip and Ceramic GPS antenna is also consider the impact of RF interference based on simulation for applied to steel container. After a careful comparison and analysis a part of the container door for its best performance, We conduct tests to characterize. The proposed integrated antenna board is suitable for container cargo transportation application in steel container field.

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Transmitter Beamforming and Artificial Noise with Delayed Feedback: Secrecy Rate and Power Allocation

  • Yang, Yunchuan;Wang, Wenbo;Zhao, Hui;Zhao, Long
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.374-384
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    • 2012
  • Utilizing artificial noise (AN) is a good means to guarantee security against eavesdropping in a multi-inputmulti-output system, where the AN is designed to lie in the null space of the legitimate receiver's channel direction information (CDI). However, imperfect CDI will lead to noise leakage at the legitimate receiver and cause significant loss in the achievable secrecy rate. In this paper, we consider a delayed feedback system, and investigate the impact of delayed CDI on security by using a transmit beamforming and AN scheme. By exploiting the Gauss-Markov fading spectrum to model the feedback delay, we derive a closed-form expression of the upper bound on the secrecy rate loss, where $N_t$ = 2. For a moderate number of antennas where $N_t$ > 2, two special cases, based on the first-order statistics of the noise leakage and large number theory, are explored to approximate the respective upper bounds. In addition, to maintain a constant signal-to-interferenceplus-noise ratio degradation, we analyze the corresponding delay constraint. Furthermore, based on the obtained closed-form expression of the lower bound on the achievable secrecy rate, we investigate an optimal power allocation strategy between the information signal and the AN. The analytical and numerical results obtained based on first-order statistics can be regarded as a good approximation of the capacity that can be achieved at the legitimate receiver with a certain number of antennas, $N_t$. In addition, for a given delay, we show that optimal power allocation is not sensitive to the number of antennas in a high signal-to-noise ratio regime. The simulation results further indicate that the achievable secrecy rate with optimal power allocation can be improved significantly as compared to that with fixed power allocation. In addition, as the delay increases, the ratio of power allocated to the AN should be decreased to reduce the secrecy rate degradation.

Theoretical Analysis of Critical Chloride Content in (Non)Carbonated Concrete Based on Characteristics of Hydration of Cement (시멘트 수화 특성 및 탄산화를 고려한 콘크리트의 임계 염소이온량에 대한 해석 기법)

  • Yoon, In-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.367-375
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    • 2007
  • Critical chloride content for corrosion initiation is a crucial parameter in determining the durability and integrity of reinforced concrete structures, however, the value is still ambiguous. Most of the studies reporting critical threshold chloride content have involved the experimental measurement of the average amount of the total chloride content at arbitrary time. The majority of these researches have not dealt with this issue combined with carbonation of concrete, although carbonation can significantly impact on critical threshold chloride content. Furthermore, the studies have tried to define the critical chloride content within the scope of their experimental concrete mix proportion at arbitrary time. However, critical chloride content for corrosion initiation is known to be affected by a lot of factors including cement content, type of binder, chloride binding, concentration of hydroxyl ions, and so on. It is necessary to define the unified formulation to express the critical chloride content for various mix proportions of concrete. The purpose of this study is to establish an analytical formulation of the critical chloride content of concrete. In this formulation, affecting factors, such as mix proportion, environment, chemical evolution of pore solution with elapsed time, carbonation of concrete and so on are taken into account. Based on the Gouda's experimental results, critical chloride content is defined as a function of $[Cl^-]$ vs. $[OH^-]$ in pore solution. This is expressed as free chloride content with mass unit to consider time evolution of $[OH^-]$ content in pore solution using the numerical simulation programme of cementitious materials, HYMOSTRUC. The result was compared with other experimental studies and various codes. It is believed that the approach suggested in this study can provide a good solution to determine the reasonable critical chloride content with original source of chloride ions, for example, marine sand at initial time, and sea water penetration later on.